German stock market is doomed. Long term bearishwithout ECB launching new round of QE, huge debt and slow productivity will weigh on the growth prospects in Euro Zoom.
Immigrants, welfare states and liberal leftists, combined together, would end the long term bullish trend of German stock benchmark (dax30).
Folks, this is the beginning of a long, tormenting bear market.
Germany
DAX without supports?Perhaps, Merkel has more problems than immigration policies. However, one of the best by far.
You know I like to keep lines and the old projections on the same chart, so this time is not the exception.
Remember, I do not like to trade this asset.
Statistic:
1.43% down.
Here's the last idea for DAX.
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DAX broke the trendline from 2009It does not look good for DAX since it broke the trendline from 2009 on the linear scale. (on log scale it was broken earlier).
It was a terrible year for DAX investors since it fell from its ATH @13577 to 10719 (8th Dec). Now its officially more than 20% this year, and the sentiment is very bearish. Only 6 companies from DAX are still in (+) this year.
Technicals:
- The main trendline since 2009 was broken on both scales (log / lin).
- The targets for Fib-retracements are: 10577 and 8700.
- Support lines around 10080 and 8150 (from Jan 2008).
- On the short-term scale its quite oversold (oscillators) and a bounce can be expected to the upside retracement or trendline.
Main events on the globally interconnected markets:
- Interest rate politics in US and Europe
- Trade war and uncertainty make a serious damage
- Brexit
- Tensions between Russia and Ukraine
- Power is slowly shifting in Germany
- Escalation of protests in France
Dax buy opportunity if trend holds otherwise danger ahead !This is a long term chart of the German Stock Index Dax. The upper trendline was established at the pre Financial Crisis peak in 2007 and later at the peaks of 2015 and 2017. This were good selling points. The lower support trendline is giving support since the Creek Dept Default Crisis in 2011 and fears of a China Slow Down in early 2016. This were good buy points. Recently, the trendline was testet again on fears of a Trade War with China, Brexit and Italian Credit, which presents a buying opportunity als long the support trendline stays intact. Otherwise danger ahead, because of a huge rising wedge pattern of a historical size.
Dax buy opportunity if trend holds otherwise danger aheadThis is a long term chart of the German Stock Index Dax. The upper trendline was established at the pre Financial Crisis peak in 2007 and later at the peaks of 2015 and 2017. This were good selling points. The lower support trendline is giving support since the Creek Dept Default Crisis in 2011 and fears of a China Slow Down in early 2016. This were good buy points. Recently, the trendline was testet again on fears of a Trade War with China, Brexit and Italian Credit, which presents a buying opportunity als long the support trendline stays intact. Otherwise danger ahead, because of a huge rising wedge pattern of a historical size.
Dax is going to correct the downtrendWe can see a clear Wolfe wave pattern at DAX index. Also we can see a divergence on all indicators especially on MACD, that confirms that pattern.
Now the "price" located at the sweet zone and we have a Short term opportunity:
To take some profit => open a LONG position with 2 targets:
1. ±11350 points
2. ±11750 points
I will update this idea
Good luck!
DEUTSCHE BANK pattern like Bitcoin (BTC/USD)We have a standard falling wedge pattern like on BTC/USD chart.
Also we have a strong divergence with MACD indicator and volume rising.
The stock after a great fall and now is located near its bottom.
LONG TERM TRADE(month chart).
And the first target is x2 of it price => 20$.
I will update the idea.
Good Luck!
DAX: Neckline BreakI have been watching the DAX H&S form for a while now. This pattern has now been confirmed with a break and weekly close below the neckline.
A descending neckline indicates fundamental weakness and could imply a swift drop.
I am short with a first target in the 10,700 area, and my ultimate target under 10,000.
DAX 30 - Potential Long If current fall holds this level of 11800 than This can potentially go back towards the 12600/12900 level. Due to trade war, Brexit, italy and several other factors it looks highly unlikely for this to take place but markets have always been uncertain so I wouldnt disregard this potential long. ideally I would put a stop loss at 11700 and long from current price till 12350 tp 1, 12450 tp 2, 12650 tp3, 12850 tp4 and Exit.
P.S IF this falls below 11700 then i wouldnt enter any position until 11350/400.
GER 30 Approaching Support, Potential Bounce!GER30 is approaching its support at 11779 (100% Fibonacci extension x2, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially rise to its resistance at 12460 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is bounced off near its support at 3.3%.
DE10Y / D1 : already showing signs of upward trending to come.We may show some short term demand on bonds because of equities volatility that I already expect. But I think anyway the EU bond market will remain under the bigger catalyst that this market will have to forecast new prices to settle to after ECB will pull out in december.
My trading plan here is to remain bullish on the december future expiration and buying all interesting pullbacks.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Phil
Long Position in Daimler InitiatedOn Friday, I initiated a long position in Daimler at the close. Considered waiting for the stock to drop to around 67.18 but was not willing to risk the market getting away over the weekend. The decision to invest in Daimler came from a thorough review of their financial statements and ratios. DDAIF has been on a Price to sales decline over the last 4 years and has been hammered this year from trade concerns. Though trade concerns could cause this trade to go against me, I believe that the trade war headlines are over emphasized and merely just to written to grab readers and sell newspapers. Furthermore, a correction in the USD is looming; having rallied about 7-8% this year a reversal to a historically average exchange rate will be a major benefit to this trade.
Support:67
Just broke 30 day moving average
Just broke two month resistance
Target: 77
Stop loss: down 3%
Expected hold: end of year
Is Dax about to crash? I don't think so!It apears that DAX is likely to crash as it has formed a beautiful head and shoulder pattern. It is possible but I think DAX is less likely to break to the downside because:
(a) DAX is completing the complex fourth Elliott wave which has retraced back exactly 38% of the third bullish wave started in June 2016. It is now likely to move up in the fifth wave.
(b) DAX has not broken the bottom of the red channel (yet) which has remained intact since 2009. DAX can moves up after gaining support from the bottom of the channel.
(c) Everyone thinks that it is about to crash and it cannot be that obvious!!
Although anything can happen, but I think that DAX is more likely to move up from here, and reach the 15000 level before dropping back to around 10000. However, please pay attention to how the bottom of the red channel behaves. This idea will only work if the bottom of the red channel acts as support. If it breaks and starts to offer resistance, then the head and shoulder pattern will do what it is supposed to do!
PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.
Cheers
ND