DAX: Neckline BreakI have been watching the DAX H&S form for a while now. This pattern has now been confirmed with a break and weekly close below the neckline.
A descending neckline indicates fundamental weakness and could imply a swift drop.
I am short with a first target in the 10,700 area, and my ultimate target under 10,000.
Germany
DAX 30 - Potential Long If current fall holds this level of 11800 than This can potentially go back towards the 12600/12900 level. Due to trade war, Brexit, italy and several other factors it looks highly unlikely for this to take place but markets have always been uncertain so I wouldnt disregard this potential long. ideally I would put a stop loss at 11700 and long from current price till 12350 tp 1, 12450 tp 2, 12650 tp3, 12850 tp4 and Exit.
P.S IF this falls below 11700 then i wouldnt enter any position until 11350/400.
GER 30 Approaching Support, Potential Bounce!GER30 is approaching its support at 11779 (100% Fibonacci extension x2, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially rise to its resistance at 12460 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is bounced off near its support at 3.3%.
DE10Y / D1 : already showing signs of upward trending to come.We may show some short term demand on bonds because of equities volatility that I already expect. But I think anyway the EU bond market will remain under the bigger catalyst that this market will have to forecast new prices to settle to after ECB will pull out in december.
My trading plan here is to remain bullish on the december future expiration and buying all interesting pullbacks.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Phil
Long Position in Daimler InitiatedOn Friday, I initiated a long position in Daimler at the close. Considered waiting for the stock to drop to around 67.18 but was not willing to risk the market getting away over the weekend. The decision to invest in Daimler came from a thorough review of their financial statements and ratios. DDAIF has been on a Price to sales decline over the last 4 years and has been hammered this year from trade concerns. Though trade concerns could cause this trade to go against me, I believe that the trade war headlines are over emphasized and merely just to written to grab readers and sell newspapers. Furthermore, a correction in the USD is looming; having rallied about 7-8% this year a reversal to a historically average exchange rate will be a major benefit to this trade.
Support:67
Just broke 30 day moving average
Just broke two month resistance
Target: 77
Stop loss: down 3%
Expected hold: end of year
Is Dax about to crash? I don't think so!It apears that DAX is likely to crash as it has formed a beautiful head and shoulder pattern. It is possible but I think DAX is less likely to break to the downside because:
(a) DAX is completing the complex fourth Elliott wave which has retraced back exactly 38% of the third bullish wave started in June 2016. It is now likely to move up in the fifth wave.
(b) DAX has not broken the bottom of the red channel (yet) which has remained intact since 2009. DAX can moves up after gaining support from the bottom of the channel.
(c) Everyone thinks that it is about to crash and it cannot be that obvious!!
Although anything can happen, but I think that DAX is more likely to move up from here, and reach the 15000 level before dropping back to around 10000. However, please pay attention to how the bottom of the red channel behaves. This idea will only work if the bottom of the red channel acts as support. If it breaks and starts to offer resistance, then the head and shoulder pattern will do what it is supposed to do!
PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.
Cheers
ND
DAX - Trendline DAX30 is sitting right around the trend line, My personal view is that it will move back towards the upside from here and the trend line will hold its level and we will be looking at 12400 in the next week or so. However any geopolitical news will be a major turning point for the Index and Possibly send this towards 11300 Area.
The Spread widens This shows us how critical the situation is , and it is also among one of the contributing factors towards the weakening Euro(BTW the strong DXY isn't helping).
This is a spread chart and shows us the divergence in yield between the two states. It gives us an idea as to how investors are pricing risk relative to a "risk-less counterpart" which in this case , it would be the German bund.
The Dollar is King This chart shows a relationship that every trader who is serious with the business has to keep in mind. The dollar is king, A STRONG DOLLAR ends up WEAKENING
EMERGING MARKETS . This causes a capital flow away from them into safer dollar assets.
Right now , my game plan for the foreseeable future is to look for a short with good risk reward in the EEM as a whole , or break it down into its constituents and look for specific shorts in its holdings.
This dollar strength will also affect commodities , Stocks tied to commodities , XLE , and a myriad of other assets
Exciting times.
Deutsche Post Dax30 Inverse Head and Shoulders 1h. EW CycleStock looks like it's finishing wave 1 of wave 3 of a higher degree wave 3, possibly forming and finishing an inverse head and shoulders formation with the start of the third of the third of the third (wave).
Where is Germany Going?Disappointing German Manufacturing figures paint a very concerning picture for Europe's largest economy. Posting a 5.9% drop in foreign demand for German products in June, Manufacturing data is responding to Trade War speculation and Trump's proposed tariffs. Will this spill over into other Eurozone markets? More importantly where is the German economy headed in the next 6 months? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
DE30EUR Bounced Off Support, Potential Rise!DE30EUR has bounced off its support at 12501 (76.4% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially rise to its resistance at 12889 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) bounced off its support at 3.6% where a corresponding rise could occur.
The Italian narrative is creating a buying opportunity for DAXI posted a video this morning with thoughts regarding the Euro and the narrative of a crisis being premature at best! Inflation numbers came out for Germany this afternoon at 0.6% versus expectations of 0.3%. Year on year we are at 2.2% which is far above last months 1.6% and above expectations of 2%. On that news we should see the euro strengthen and given the EU is a net importer econ activity should rise in tandem!