Deutsche Bank – Series of horrors, no reversal signal on chartsDeutsche Bank is smashed from all sides. The bank has gone from being Europe’s best in 1980s to being the worst in 2016.
What went wrong?
Check out Panmure Gordon’s Senior Market Commentator David Buik detail Deutsche Bank’s journey from Best to Worst - www.youtube.com
Don’t trust the rebound
Shares are up more than 3% at 10.85 levels. This is because the bank denied capitalization problems and has decided to sell its insurance unit Abbey Assurance. However, not that official denial is always confirmation… don’t trust anything unless it is officially denied.
Technical outlook
There are no major signs of reversal – No bullish price RSI divergence on hourly or 4-hr or daily chart. Neither do we have candlestick patterns that suggest reversal.
Infact yesterday’s candle was a spinning top of sorts…though it appears in a corrective and cannot be called as a top… still it suggests indecision.
In the short-run bearish invalidation is seen only if prices see a daily close above 11.13 (Sep 21 high).
Till then there is little hope for bulls… bears can expect fresh sell-off below yesterday’s low of 10.65.
Germany
DAX – Confluence of 100-MA & Pivot support stands exposedThe inside day candle stick formation on Friday followed by a gap down opening and a big sell-off yesterday suggests the retreat from the high of 10,780 (Sep 8 high) has resumed and the index is likely to test 10, 182 levels (100-DMA + monthly pivot support).
Only a daily close above 10,705 (Sep 22 high) would signal bearish invalidation.
QQQ/EWG: Merkel gave us green light, short Germany and long QQQThis potentially a very rewarding pair trade. You can enter shorts in Dax (either via CFDs or using the EWG etf) and longs in Nasdaq composite (CFDs or via the QQQ etf), risking 1 time the monthly average true range (but using no stop - the idea is merely to size the trade based on volatility).
This is potentially a long term trade, and a good way of gaining short exposure based on fundamentals without being solely short Deutsche Bank or Germany.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Bayer stock facing upside pressureBayer have just taken over Monsanto. This is huge as it brings together two of the biggest pharmaceutical firms globally. Looking technically, I can see some severe upside where investors look to pile into this now global powerhouse (takeover valued at $68bn). I would expect a rally to $112 based off of current market structure and the bullish harami pattern. I would also like to see end of week volumes finish extremely high.
DAX - Bullish Continuation Descending TriangleIt was a pain trading the DAX all of last week. Several candles indicated tactical bounces off important breakout supports around 10470 - 490, however the index failed to distance itself from key supports, decisively. Friday ended the week with a bullish engulfing pattern. Bigger picture, we are looking at a descending triangle pattern, which I expect to resolve higher, given the bullish backdrop since February.
DAX Not Playing Out As ExpectedThe anticipated bounce off breakout supports didn't play out as expected. Lack of follow-up is a signal that we need to accept. I'm not turning bearish, yet. Key support to watch on the Index is at 10443. Below would complete a minor top with light support at 10374 (gap) and heavier supports at 10129 - 10093 - 10066 (key moving averages, early August reaction low).
Sticking To Dax Bull CaseYesterday's candle was actually bullish. Long-legged candles signal reversals, even if the intraday selloff may have suggested otherwise. The key message: breakout levels ~10490 were tested (violated), but held. Index is off to a fresh swing higher, which could target 10860 (late December high) and 10981 (cycle fibo level).
With that in mind, yesterday's mini reversal in Gold, and GBP strengthening vs. USD, are short-term technicals suggesting we are getting a dovish Yellen at JH?