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Germany

DAX - (massive!) Short; This is a no-brainer!Germany decided to systematically destroy their (and the EU's) economy, in a consistent and spectacular fashion. This is a no-brainer!! (I have been shorting this, with everything I've got, for the past week.) The only thing that kept this thing afloat, so far, is the underlying currency (EUR/USD) push-pull. I believe that is now over and full capitulation is at hand. Where will this mayhem stop? ... Well, it depends on the maximum pain tolerance of the combined German industrial base. Will they let their government fully destroy their entire economy or will they put a stop to it, at some point? ... Right now, I don't care! The damage is already done, the only question remaining; Just how bad? Sell, sell, sell ... and then, Short some more!
XETR:DAXShort
by Nemo_Confidat
60
Will US Inflation Data Spark EUR/USD Recovery? Will US Inflation Data Spark EUR/USD Recovery? In Monday's early trading session, the euro showed a slight weakening against the U.S. dollar, influenced by a prevailing sense of pessimism following disappointing industrial production figures in Germany. As the largest economy in the eurozone, Germany's struggles in the manufacturing sector have been evident throughout the year due to decreased orders, sluggish output, and soaring prices. The EUR/USD pair attempted to recover above the 1.1000 mark, but it seems that sellers are gaining some control in the short term. Traders are now closely eyeing the next potential catalyst for movement in the currency pair, which is the U.S. inflation data set to be released on Thursday at 8:30 am (NY time). Market expectations point towards a July core inflation rate of 4.7% on an annual basis for the U.S. A significant downside surprise in core inflation, say at 4.5% or lower, might prompt a dovish reassessment of the dollar's value and could open the door for a solid euro recovery. At present, the EUR/USD is caught between two very tight technical levels after its recent rebound: resistance at 1.1010 and support at 1.1000. If the pair gains further strength, the focus could shift to the 1.1040 level. Conversely, if weakness takes hold, a pullback towards 1.0990 and a retest of 1.09655 may be in the cards.
by BlackBull_Markets
Continental CON Long term bullish cycleOur probability indicator has observed Long Term BOS (Break-of-Structure) on Daily TF. Essentially what that means is that we closing in on bearish cycle for XETR:CON and new bullish leg is forming for longterm continuation of new bullish cycle. We expect further bearish correction to 68.30 - 64.80 zone ( Current Inverse H&S pattern support zone ) where conditions for perfect LONG entry occur. Take-Profit should be set within High resistance zone 114.50 - 139.30
XETR:CONLong
by wikitrades
Unleash the Bull: DAX Breaks Boundaries!Bullish/Bearish Momentum: The Macro PVVM, which indicates long-term trend, has been consistently increasing from 68 to 102. This is a strong sign of a bullish momentum in the long term. The indicator breached the overbought level (>100) on the last data point suggesting a strong bullish trend but also the potential risk of a pullback. The Micro PVVM, representing short-term movement, has also shown a general increase from 12 to 41 with some periods of pullback, which indicates a predominantly bullish momentum in the short term. Alignment with Closing Prices: The closing prices have generally been increasing, aligning well with the bullish momentum indicated by the PVVM indicators. The price moved from $16147 to $16189 with some fluctuations. Long-term and Short-term Trends: Long-term (Macro) Trend : The continuous increase in the Macro PVVM suggests a long-term bullish trend. Short-term (Micro) Trend : The short-term trend, represented by the Micro PVVM, has also been predominantly bullish, but the ups and downs suggest a higher level of volatility and uncertainty in the short-term trend. Key Takeaways: The OANDA:DE30EUR is in a strong bullish trend based on the provided dataset, with both Macro and Micro PVVM showing an increasing trend. The Macro PVVM has breached the overbought level, indicating a strong bullish market but also warning of potential short-term pullbacks. The short-term movement shows volatility, which means traders should be cautious. Proposed Trade Strategy: Long Position : As the overall trend is bullish, traders can consider entering long positions. However, they need to watch out for potential pullbacks due to the overbought condition. Short Position : Given the overbought state of the market, traders could consider short positions if there are clear signs of bearish reversal in the Micro PVVM or a decrease in the Macro PVVM. Price Prediction: Given the current trend, the TVC:DEU40 could continue to increase in the next 7 bars. However, as the Macro PVVM has entered the overbought territory, a short-term pullback or consolidation could also occur. Critical Points to Watch: Continuation of the bullish trend in the Macro PVVM. Signs of a reversal in the Micro PVVM, given the overbought condition in Macro PVVM. Price movements and their correlation with PVVM indicators. Watch out for any divergence between price and PVVM indicators, as it may suggest potential trend reversals. Remember, while the PVVM indicators provide valuable insight into the market's direction, they are not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and fundamentals for the most reliable results.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by SwingSwiss
The Turning TidesGermany, Europe's economic powerhouse, has consistently delivered impressive performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. This strong performance is rooted in Germany's strong manufacturing sectors and robust export activities. The country's economic strength is exemplified by the DAX's considerable outperformance of other European indices since the early 2000s. DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex) is a blue-chip stock market index comprising the 40 largest German companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Top constituents include internationally renowned firms such as SAP, Siemens, Allianz, Airbus, and Bayer. On the other hand, the STOXX50 index represents a much broader scope, encompassing 50 of the most liquid blue-chip companies in the Eurozone, including ASML, LVMH, and others. Since the dawn of the new millennium, the DAX index has surged by more than 180%, whereas the STOXX50 is only now approaching pre-2008 GFC levels. The DAX's relative outperformance becomes evident when looking at the regression channel of the ratio between these two indices. However, the prevailing narrative may be on the cusp of a significant shift. On a closer examination of the factors underpinning Germany's superior performance, it emerges that sector weightings and macroeconomic conditions have played pivotal roles. Notably, the DAX has consistently underweighted financials as compared to the STOXX50 index. Post-2008, the Eurozone's interest rates have witnessed a consistent downtrend. This period of extraordinarily loose financial conditions and low bond yields, largely a by-product of Quantitative Easing (QE), has favored technology and growth stocks. The main drivers are the availability of cheap capital and a stronger emphasis on growth potential over current valuations. Conversely, the same conditions have exerted considerable pressure on financials, as their earnings capabilities have been seriously compromised. This is precisely why the European banking sector has lagged considerably behind its US counterparts and has yet to recover to pre-GFC levels. This whole dynamics began to falter last year as inflationary pressures mounted, especially in European countries grappling with additional challenges, such as the Russian-Ukraine war and an energy crisis. The European Central Bank, following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, finally embarked on a journey to raise interest rates, leading to one of the fastest-paced interest rate increases in modern history. Furthermore, Germany's export sector is encountering headwinds as the global economy edges closer to a potential recession, triggered by the tightening measures undertaken by central banks. Demand for products such as automobiles is likely to dwindle, particularly from major trading partners like China and the US. On the other hand, a healthier, more normalized yield curve is finally offering some respite to European financial institutions. This shift could eventually curtail DAX's persistent outperformance compared to other European indices like STOXX50. From a technical perspective, the price action also implies an impending change. The DAX/STOXX50 ratio has arguably completed a Head-and-Shoulder top and is currently sitting on the lower bound of the regression channel. A breakout to the downside could potentially signal the end of a two-decade-long uptrend, leading to a significant reversal in relative performance between DAX and STOXX50. A hypothetical investor looking to express this view could consider establishing a short Micro DAX and long Micro STOXX50 spread at a notionally equivalent amount. The added advantage of this relative trade is that beta exposure is substantially reduced. For example, if a global recession causes most equity markets to decline, this relative trade could still benefit if the DAX falls more than the STOXX50. Do note that a spread-trading strategy may incur additional commission fees versus a traditional outright strategy. Hot tip: Phillip Nova is currently offering zero-commission trading of the EUREX Micro-DAX® Futures and Micro-EURO STOXX 50® Futures. Click here to learn more. To create a notionally equivalent DAX/STOXX50 spread, an investor might short 1 Micro DAX futures (EUR 1 per index point) and go long on 4 Micro STOXX50 futures (EUR 1 per index point). The notional amount of the Micro-DAX futures would approximately be 15,800 EUR. Meanwhile, the notional amount of the 3 STOXX50 futures would approximately be 3 x 4280 = 17,120 EUR. The margin required for each contract of Micro-DAX would be 1,588 EUR while the Micro-STOXX50 would be 380 EUR (as of 10 July 2023). Disclaimer: The contents of this Idea are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by inspirante
DAX to reach a new all-time high today?GER40 - Intraday Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment. The bias is to break to the upside. The primary trend remains bullish. We look to Buy a break of 16351 (stop at 16251) Our profit targets will be 16601 and 16651 Resistance: 16340 / 16400 / 16500 Support: 16300 / 16200 / 16100 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX Channel Up and Inverse Head & Shoulders pushing for Gap fillDAX rebounded at the bottom of the Channel Up, forming Support (1) at 15625. By doing so it completed the formation of an Inverse Head and Shoulders. This is a twin bullish signal same with the March bottom. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. 2. Sell if it crosses Support 1 (15625). Targets: 1. 16340 (Resistance 1 and Gap fill as per the March fractal). 2. 15250 (bottom of long term Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is also forming a Channel Up like March indicating that we might be exactly before the breakout to the gap fill. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingBrokersView
10
DAX Megaphone still intact. Breakout and scalping options.DAX is trading in a Megaphone, currently supported by the MA50 (4h). Scalping is recommended inside this pattern and breakout trading outside it. Trading Plan: 1. Buy if the price closes over the Megaphone. 2. Sell if it closes under the MA50 (1d). Targets: 1. 16200 (+12.17% buy leg). 2. 15200 (lower Support Zone). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is inside a clear Rectangle whose bottom and top can help with scalping inside the Megaphone. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingBrokersView
3
DAX traded to the highest level in 62 weeks!GER40 - 24h expiry - Daily signals are bullish. Traded to the highest level in 62 weeks. There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 15683. 15791 has been pivotal. A break of the recent high at 15791 should result in a further move higher. We look to Buy a break of 15801 (stop at 15681) Our profit targets will be 16101 and 16151 Resistance: 15791 / 15900 / 16000 Support: 15630 / 15600 / 15500 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX momentum has stalled at 2023 highs.GER40 - 24h expiry - We are trading at overbought extremes. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. 15708 has been pivotal. A higher correction is expected. Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high. We look to Sell at 15699 (stop at 15819) Our profit targets will be 15401 and 15341 Resistance: 15662 / 15708 / 15800 Support: 15550 / 15470 / 15350 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
DAX Major bearish breakoutWe're watching the support level of 14877 very closely as it's a major overlap, 23.6% Fib retracement and a break of this level, coinciding with the ichimoku cloud bearish exit, could trigger a massive drop to the next support level at 13863. It's also nice to see strong bearish divergence vs Stochastic suggesting we could see a big reversal upon the break of the 14877 level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
GShort
by Rockqet
DAX BEARISH SCENARIO NOT OVERDAX felt 3.04% in Monday, biggest drop for the instrument after December. Investors are cautious after the failings of SVB and Signature Bank that the entire bank sector might be badly hurt from the sharp rise of interests in the last year. On the technical front both MACD and RSI indicators are suggesting continuity of the bearish movement, with RSI below the 50 neutral line and MACD histogram deep under the zero line and keep falling. If the current movement continues, the price might try to test levels of 14500. In the opposite scenario the price might revert back to 15410. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
DShort
by legacyFXofficial
1