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This Signal in Bond Yields Will Predict the Next Recession.After one of the most unexpected years, I thought I should take a step back and look at macroeconomics a little bit, at one specific chart that I've been watching. That is the German Government 10-Year Bond Yield (DE10Y). I've been anticipating a signal in that chart that will indicate massive shift in global market trends and will bring us closer to the next imminent recession. That signal is the breaking of the decades-long descending wedge. The momentum is still bearish, and this week the price got rejected at the upper line of the wedge. If this continues downards, then the economy remains in the same state. Central banks are printing currency at an unprecedented rate, and inflation is showing on commodoties and stocks and everything else. Governments are sinking more into debt, and the best place to put your money remains the stock market. That is until this wedge breaks. Because when it does, the bond yields will accelerate upwards. It will become more costly to borrow money. And the economy will slow down again. But this time, it is slowing down while everyone is extremely leveraged and deep in debt. We want to maximize our profit but we do not want to be caught in that state. That is why I pay attention to this chart and the DXY. There are many charts that can indicate the same outcome, but I choose to focus on one only that does the job. Now according to some Fibonacci levels, I predict another touch in October 2021. By then, perhaps the majority of zombie companies will have declared bankruptcy. Is it too soon for that? Will government regulation delay that even further? No idea. Too many factors to watch. So let's keep watching this one key chart.
TVC:DE10Y
by TechNerdOmar
DAX High alertPattern: Channel Up on 1D. Signal: Sell as the MACD is flatlined and could repeat the September 2020 sequence. Target: The 1D MA50. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Jpolitis --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by TradingShot
1
Western European COVID-19 forces a close(er) ChristmasA quick screen of the COVD-19 situation in the Western European countries of Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy shows that all have had a spike in recent months. The MACD histograms actually decipher the rate of acceleration of the spike in cases. Hence, the MACD histograms really need to go below zero to get a deceleration in the number of COVID-19 cases. From here, we can see... Great Britain is moderating it’s spike. France is slowing down the spike somewhat, nonetheless still increasing, albeit at a moderated pace. Germany is still in acceleration phase of their Wave 2, and it would may be months before it decelerates. Italy, like GB , is moderating slightly. So much for Christmas... it would be one that returns everyone to basic nuclear family, where Christmas is less consumer driven, and more family orientated. While we know the deteriorating conditions, we pray that families get closer and bond better through this period. God bless... Merry Christmas, Joyeux Noel. Stay safe, stay healthy.
C
by Auguraltrader
ridethepig | DAX sufferingAn interesting development on DAX after the planned highs last week. We will go through what does it mean, how is this an advantage to sellers and when is it appropriate to add to the position. The same focus can be applied across the global equity board. Resistance can also be conceived with the presence of stimulus; but total restraint, which reigns from lockdowns stretching into another 3 weeks for Germany will give buyers breathing difficulties...To what extent, should we ask, is this an advantage that we can capitalise on and how unpleasant will that be for buyers? Our very short-term range is +/- 15% ... so although from a timing perspective we are compact, the yield connected with such a wide range is apparent. The main mid-term and long-term range is even clearer: 📍 Rule: when loading on the short-term understand the position our opponent poses in the mid and long term, to further understanding of scope and whether taking the position is worthwhile.. With this in mind, in the long-term macro chart in euro I posted back in 2018... yes 2018... it was about buyers attempting to trap their opponent into a selloff before continuing the legs higher. With a completion of the moves in euro, the formation of the hammer in Germany equities can finally advance with 1.20xx and 1.21xx cleared. But there is no-stopping the digital euro into 2021 and thus the attempt to cancel the currency remains under pressure: As well as active pressure from the currency, there is also the concept of lockdowns and further static economic growth from Germany. We must distinguish from whether this is a short lived -15% selloff or a sustained economic cycle down. Send the troops, time will tell. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GShort
by ridethepig
DAX Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H. Signal: Buy once the price approaches the 4H MA50, which has been supporting since November 19. Target: 13500 (+1.75 projected rise from the 4H MA50 contact). ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> TradingView --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DLong
by TradingShot
EUR Breakout|Reflationary trend[exports driven]|2021 Double-Dip?Short idea, few things to keep an eye on. It seems that the EUR is conforming a breakout on the monthly. A decent sign for the recovery of the global economy for 2021, as exporting nations are given the advantage of bouncing back post-covid. However, I do not think that the Euro will sustain above the 2018 highs of 1.25 in 2021 for few reasons. -> The EU southern states are tourism reliant, and very doubtful that the leisure sector will recover as fast, hence increasingly more stimulus will be needed to sustain these economies. A stronger euro would even further hurt the potential to recover. -> Post-covid, supply chains are likely going to be disrupted for the long-term, affecting EU exports and further increasing the likelihood of a double dip in 2021. -> Even though Biden is likely to take a lighter stances on tariffs, it certainly won't be the same as Obama's approach to Globalism, i.e some of Trumps policies are likely to stay. -> Very unlikely that Dems get a trifecta by taking control of the senate in January, so the levels of stimulus as well as tax amendments won't be as high as currently expected. Overall, dollar bullish. -> Merkel leaves in 2021, unlike the US, the transition will be orderly, however policies are likely to change, further impacting FX volatility. -> DXY(EUR > 50% typically) is also pointing out to a weaker dollar, initially at the start of 2021. This is it for EURUSD, the rest is demonstrated on the chart. The reason I am not long, despite the chart suggesting a bullish trend, is because of the 2021 double dip potential, which is the necessary retest for me to turn bullish on the Euro for 2021-2024. So, let's see how it all turns out in 2021. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details , every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money . For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
3
MACDONALDS CORP DL Good Entry Buy I am a consultant for anyone who needs a consultant, I see that MACDONALDS Corp will GO UP IN FEW DAYS when the market open 1, When you decide to use my ideas in your trading, please contact me to inform you of some things and monitor the position together without specifying a take profit or stop loss, we will decide when to open and close the position 2 (When I set the take profit and stop loss in a number that does not mean that the price will reach it, I gave a buy or sell signal only according to the analyzes I made in the chart and delete it later, in the order to share it with you so that you have a clear picture and read it clearly, thank you!) 3, you can try me for one or two weeks to decide to work with you and give you signals about buying or selling
FWB:MDOLong
by soufianchiekh
1
This is what global indices are showing us : Part 1 In this part I have looked at the nasdaq, S&P 500, UK, EURO & GermanDAX. nasdaq is showing distribution signs after a parabolic move to all time highs. This is a clear sign of a sharp reversal in the coming weeks. S&P is seeming like a false breakout and/ or short squeeze on a very conveniently timed vaccine news. Euro, UK & GDAX are at very critical supply zones and it would make the most sense to turn downwards from here. However, a violation of these levels means bear thesis is probably off the table. I welcome all sorts of feedback ! thank you :)
XETR:DAXShort
by markethunter888
2
COVId-19 Scan for the US, GB, GER and CHNCOVID-19 Confirmed cases for the USA, Great Britain, Germany, and China... Clearly the Western (world) major economies are having trouble handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Germany appears to be the most parabolic, then Great Britain is similar although not as steep. USA is not far off in the speed of spread. Opposing to that, China has been doing well, and numbers are low, with the MACD having an opposing pattern, falling as time goes along. This is going to be the stage for 2021; and the writing is on the wall (chart) now...
C
by Auguraltrader
DAX - without buyers Feb/March pattern in play?Last week I warned that it is crucial for XETR:DAX to hold key support level of head and shoulders formation. After it was lost on Monday, index has experienced almost non-stop bleeding, in less than 3 days losing around 8%. As DAX is approaching June lows, it is reasonable to expect some sort of stabilization in the upcoming days. If not, however, things could really get out of control (enough to remember what happened in Feb/March), so act accordingly.
XETR:DAX
by Silvestrov
ridethepig | DAX into the elections and beyond📍 DAX gaining tempo The previous 2020 macro map, outdated as it may be, contains the overarching manoeuvre which we can now describe as a compounding play. It is as follows: my models started to pick up on the alarm bells towards the back-end of last year, and hinted of DAX making revisiting 10,000. The compounding is going to be of great importance, when we realise the 5th wave is still (yet) to complete. By the time private clients began to call outguessing the Green / CDU coalition and 'Green New Deal' it was too late... and there now occurs two dominos: if DAX retests the lows in a panic move, and sellers force through a retest of the lows for a second time and then the new economic cycle can begin in 2021/2022. Moreover, for those trading the single currency, we are going to get major updates here as we enter into 2021 and digital currencies come through the backdoor. This fact paves the way for perpetual bonds which are on the way to act as a trojan horse for government defaults is of utmost concern. The brutal bear market rally in the euro is not going to help german equities over the coming months, and the ECB knows it which is why they are signalling distress signals louder than usual.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
5