Germany30
DAX 30: Week 43 OutlookA favorable response out of Germany in the last few weeks to the economic and geopolitical data leading news headlines. The German Dax rallied a full +2.38% on the week before settling up +1.42%. This is off the back of comforting U.S. - China trade negotiations looking up. As a major exporter, Germany will benefit massively from a favorable deal between the two countries.
In addition, as the largest economy in the European Union, the BREXIT negotiations ending in a good light Friday. The deal was listed by analyst as favorable for the E.U., and plus for German traders and investors.
From a technical perspective, we have changed our forecast. With such strength in the market, it invalidated the downside continuation pattern and rallied massively to 12,820.00 The last 3 days of trading saw a range of 12,600.00 to 12,700.00 indicating a correction may be forming.
THE PLAY: A close below 12,600.00 on the Daily will signal us to sell into the correction before a higher rally overall. Target 12,250.
DAX update After another retest of the broken channel, price is finishing (c) wave in a bigger B wave.
Now looks like time is coming to start shorting DAX into C wave. Price showed strong rejection from the top.
After big sell off on Friday, we could see a pullback tomorrow before selling continues.
Overall long term target is down to at least 11200.
Please comment your thoughts on this!
Good Luck!
DAX: One last bullish leg towards 13,000.DAX has been very bullish throughout October rising from the near 11,800 low to a 12,800 high today which is in fact a peak for 2019. This is all within the Channel Up pattern on 1W (RSI = 59.041, MACD = 182.700, Highs/Lows = 304.9427) that has been in effect since February.
As you see the two dominant bullish legs are very similar, the one from February to May and August to today: Phase 1 (circle) is a volatile Higher Low, then phase 2 (blue rotated rectangle) the first major pull back and lastly phase 3 (green rectangle) the last minor pull back before the Higher High.
Assuming that the rise on the current bullish leg will be symmetrical (+14.60%) then we have calculated the final Target Zone within 12,950 - 13,080. Long term traders though may wait for a safer larger pull back around 12,100 before buying, again as it happened in May.
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DAX-30The DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex (German stock index)) is a blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Germany is the strongest economy in Europe. But in Europe is not very good there are more indebted debtors Greece, Italy, Spain ..., England has already fled the sinking ship. And the situation in the European Union will deteriorate. On technical analysis, showed the wave theory of the Elliott. We paint the fifth wave and after down the ABC correction. At the top showed a yellow line of resistance that with a black support line makes an rising wedge - a reversal pattern.
GER30 4h Buy PlanHalted at minor support area with high volume.
Overextended pull-down through major support.
Forming a accumulation zone.
This is for the next trading week.
After the large pull-down I'm looking for an entry long. I'm wary that we are in a long term downtrend hence my plan shows points of resistance where price might react violently. Especially at the 12055 area major support/resistance. If they bull through that it has a good chance of reaching ~12300. Beware of a continuation downward for it was a strong move.
I'll update this plan on Monday.
Please share you're opinions, I'd love to hear you're idea on this.
Have a great weekend traders!
DAX short opportunity in playAs analyzed sometimes before, I am expecting the German Index to be in a bigger consolidative wave 4 which I am expecting to play out as a "abcde" triangle. Within this triangle wie can observe 3 wave moves "abc". I am expecting the DAX to have finished an "a" and "b" wave and a "c" wave could now be about to start which should bring us lower. Therefore I am seeing here a very good risk to reward situation at the moment. However the setup becomes invalidated of course should the German Market Index rise above the indicated stop level. Fundamentally Germanys Economy is heading into a recession, PMIs have been worsening for over one year, with a record low just some weeks ago, well in the contracting territory with a read of 41.7. The car manufacturing sector is dying due to the trade war and over regulation within Germany take a look at my Daimler Analysis linked at the bottom. All in all technically and fundamentally I don't see the German Index rising over the next months, all tough it has been kept up strong for quiet a while now despite bad economic data. The ECB has started a new QE program to combat the economical deterioration, much of this has been priced in now maybe its even overpriced because keep in mind that this program will not start until November and typically monetary policy needs around 8 Months to show its first effects, so at the moment there is no reason to assume the economy will get better within the next months already. We also don't know how well the QE will work around this time we need to wait at least until half a year from now to get fundamental readings. Should we see a recovery in the PMIs about half a year from now or more and should the DAX be on low levels a this time around then this would be a long signal as we could observe that the monetary policy is kicking in, however I think at the moment its definitely too early for that and too much optimism has been blindly priced in relying heavily on the ECB.
#GER30 #DAX #DAXINDEX #Trading Outlook; where are we heading to?Dax has opened on monday morning with a expected pullback Move, but how far will it retrace or will it go sideways?
Daily stoch and daily RSI are telling us since many days that past uprun is running into exhaustion as the oscillators are turning down starting to leave high levels.
We have major key levels that we can easily watch and manage our Risk From without being attached to any economic bias.
On a makro view a possible bullish perspective key level to watch is the major lower trendline. A Break of it would give first insights that makro upward trajectory is totally broken.
But until this happen Dax Index has given us in the past many opportunities to play Fibonacci Retracements to the Upside.
The current Dax Posture tells us not to blindly short the Market it is rather telling us to derisk Any Long Trades and lock in Profits which you might gained during this Year and derisk your Stocks (especially DAX Participants).
Also What gives the Dax a higher probability to go Sideways or decline with a slow pace is that many Dax Stocks have already had their major declines over the past weeks and Months and playing some kind of bounces trying to find buyers but according to current Dax Posture I also would not say that we will not see some lower major german stock prices.
Anyway shorting with prices trading with a rather narrow range to the daily 200EMA and daily 200SMA is not the Trade i am personally looking for.
If you are asking yourself which Fibonacci Retracement Level will be the best to manage your Risk of i can tell you following.
Looking at the daily RSI we are nowhere near any long entries on DAX and personally i am not allocating any eurocent to German Companies at this high Oszillator Levels.
Looking at the past i want to the RSI go back to 0.618 or 0.786 Levels which would go in confluence with chart prices and chart Fibonacci levels around 0.382, 0.5 or even as low as 0.618.
Choose your entries wisely and trade safe!
DAX weekly updateLooking at DAX, weekly chart shows the H&S pattern forming with good divergence on indicators Elliott waves are perfectly respected and by that count we are finishing wave B. Could still go up before the major plunge into C.
This could also be in line with recession fears, showing that we have time but the sell off is inevitable. Wave C also moves in 12345 formation, so we shall get plenty of opportunity to add shorts there.
Good Luck!