Dax daily: 12 Aug 2019The last session of the previous week did not offer something really interesting. Our support at 11 716 did not work as a point of reflection, but rather as a place where the market slowed down for several hours. Today we are opening with a long gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 12 031
Support: trend line
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
We have an increased probability of 57% to close the gap, for this reason we can expect a slight short move towards the trend line where we could find buyers and head towards 11 899. If we break through the Friday's low, the hypothesis of the test 11 899 will not be valid anymore, rather we can expect chop in the Friday's range.
Germany30
German Dax 2 hour set upBeen in a prolonged downtrend on the German Dax...world equities really, and it seems we began to bottom out here. We stopped making lower highs and lower lows.
We hit a support one and from there have gained some bids. Seems we got what appears to be a wedge/triangle break above a resistance zone on the 2 hour followed by higher highs and higher lows. A good risk vs reward trade.
Watching the 11920 zone as an interim target, and another zone at 12050 zone.
I still think central banks can cut rates and go back to QE/stimulus so markets can still remain propped...wall street can keep the party going a little longer.
DAX - Head and Shoulders topTrade Idea
Broken out of the Head and Shoulders formation to the downside.
Bespoke resistance is located at 12295.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
The formation has a measured move target of 11727.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 12295 level.
Stop: 12345
Target 1: 12055
Target 2: 11950
German DAX Head and Shoulders?Not a textbook head and shoulders, but this is real life. What the head and shoulders tells us is a shift from one trend to another, we see this with the swings.
The German Dax had a break below a support/flip zone as other equity indices also sell off.
This is a nice and strong break, but again, perhaps await for the Federal Reserve to speak before entering.
11800 would be a good target zone.
GER.IDX/EUR 4H Chart: Bounces off support clusterThe DEU.IDX/EUR pair has been trading in a junior ascending channel pattern since June. The pair bounced off the bottom border of the channel pattern at 11616.2 on June 3.
The German 30 index made a pullback south from a resistance level at 12571.5 during yesterday's trading session.
Currently, the pair is testing a support cluster formed by the 50– and 200-hour SMAs at 12402.4.
If the cluster holds, the GER/IDX/EUR pair will continue its movement in the junior ascending channel pattern during the following trading sessions.
DAX - Selling again todayDAY TRADE - EXPIRES AT 9PM
Trade Idea
Trading within a Corrective Channel formation.
Bespoke resistance is located at 12300.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Broken out of the Head and Shoulders formation to the downside.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 12465
Target 1: 12240
Target 2: 12135
Updates
The move to 12405 triggered our short trade
Updated: 2019-07-23 08:24:29
DAX - Head and Shoulders topDAY TRADE - EXPIRES AT 9PM
Trade Idea
Trading within a Corrective Channel formation.
Bespoke resistance is located at 12300.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Broken out of the Head and Shoulders formation to the downside.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
We look to Sell at 12300
Stop: 12360
Target 1: 12135
Target 2: 12360
DAX - Head and shoulders top formation. Selling a rally.DAY TRADE - EXPIRES AT 9PM UK
Trade Idea
Trading within a Corrective Channel formation.
Bespoke resistance is located at 12400.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Continued upward momentum from 12195 resulted in the pair posting net daily gains yesterday.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
We look to Sell at 12400
Stop: 12480
Target 1: 12130
Target 2: 12000
DAX - Buying at channel support.DAY TRADE - EXPIRES AT 9PM
Trade Idea
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
We have a 50% Fibonacci pullback level of 12130 from 12661 to 11600.
As this corrective sequence continues we look to set longs on a dip at better risk/reward levels.
The medium term bias remains bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
We look to Buy at 12130
Stop: 12050
Target 1: 12330
Target 2: 12400
DAX - Buying dips at the lower end of the channelTrade Idea
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Bespoke support is located at 12435.
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 12435 level.
We look to Buy at 12435
Stop: 12365
Target 1: 12675
Target 2: 12800
Daily market report July 8th 2019
Market highlights
Headline June US employment data beat consensus forecasts with an increase of 224,000 in non-farm payrolls, although other data was slightly weaker than expected.
Bond yields recovered sharply following the data on a shift in Fed expectations, although there was a partial reversal on Monday amid fragile risk conditions.
Equities declined in Asia on Monday amid reduced expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts
The dollar advanced strongly following the employment release, although it failed to hold its best levels.
The Canadian dollar also pared initial losses from a headline dip in June employment with commodity currencies also recovering some losses.
Gold declined sharply on dollar gains with a dip below $1,400 per ounce before a tentative recovery amid weaker equity markets.
Oil prices were supported by reduced fears over global demand conditions.
Dax daily: 28 Jun 2019Thursday's session was very nice and with reasonably volatile moves for profitable trading. Dax first climbed to hit Wednesday's high and by doing this, the statistical probability of 82% to break previous day high or low was fulfilled. A bit later, sellers took over even though we expected them to react on higher prices. The price sliced through the support zone of 12 229 all the way towards 12 191, which functioned fantastically.
In the end, our analysis scored another success point as we fulfilled another statistic of price closing inside the previous day range, which had a probability of 87%. Today, we open with a small ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 344
Support: 12 120
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
G20 Meeting
Today's session hypothesis
For today, our chances are pretty balanced from the Price Action perspective. Nevertheless, it's important to mention that yesterday's lower price rejection was significantly vigorous. For such reason, Dax is likely to rose climb towards 12 344 where we could find some sellers and return back to yesterday's range. Due to the G20 meeting in Japan, we can expect a slower price movement and nervous markets.
German stocks - short on lack of fundamental & monetary fuelFundamentals:
- German industrial production declining (-1.8%)
- IFO business climate continuous decline from 105 to below 97 points in a year
- ECB program and rate cut insufficient support for economy
Technical:
- Daily double top formation
- 38.2 Fib level as TP1
Trade:
- Enter trade with SL above recent high
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2019 Welcome to a new trading week. Friday's session turned out as expected, but unfortunately, our zones didn't get a chance to play a role. The resistance at 12 337 and 12 373 didn't attract any sellers. They entered a bit higher at 12 409 and continued to dominate intra-day price action. Dax then closed just short of the support level laying at 12 219. Today, we open with a strong ascending candle and with a long gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 350
Support: 12 219, 12 191
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of breaking Friday's low stands at 96%
Macroeconomic releases
10:00 CEST - German Ifo Business Climate
Today's session hypothesis
Today we have a very high probability for breaking Friday's low. For this reason, every short signal has a clear target. If and once that happens, we could find some buyers at 12 219 or 12 191. Even though we have such a high probability for a certain market occurrence, don't forget to always manage your risk and don't bet too much on one card.
Dax daily: 20 Jun 2019By looking at the past two sessions, it is very clear that the waiting for FOMC does indeed affect the Dax. Yesterday’s session only had a range of 70 points and most of the time, we traded sideways, slightly to the downside. The session ended at the price 13 312.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 433
Support: 12 281
Statistics for today
25 % gap close
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
none
Today’s session hypothesis
Today’s morning gap did surprise many traders. The Dax jumped 59 points to the upside to test our long-term resistances. The probability of closing the gap is only 25%. It seems that this is a sign that we might test higher prices. Immediately this morning, we are battling with the resistance 12 378, next resistance is at 12 433, where buyers might slow down.
Dax daily: 14 Jun 2019 Thursday’s session has been considerably more active compared to the previous day. Dax first headed straight up without stopping at our first resistance zone. The second level of resistance laying at 12 194 functioned perfectly and the price even formed an intra-day high there. Following was a bounce back to our first level, now being a support zone where we found some buyers taking the price slightly up again. Today we open with the gap being already closed.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 264
Support: 12 121, 12 054
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
Today, we hope to descend towards 12 121 just to get buyers to take the price higher. In case Dax gets below 12 121, it is more likely the price will slow down in the consolidation area from Wednesday. If bulls are strong, then the first target is the swing high from 11 Jun, followed by a retest of the resistance level at 12 264.