Germany30
DAX - Buying dips at the lower end of the channelTrade Idea
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Bespoke support is located at 12435.
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 12435 level.
We look to Buy at 12435
Stop: 12365
Target 1: 12675
Target 2: 12800
Daily market report July 8th 2019
Market highlights
Headline June US employment data beat consensus forecasts with an increase of 224,000 in non-farm payrolls, although other data was slightly weaker than expected.
Bond yields recovered sharply following the data on a shift in Fed expectations, although there was a partial reversal on Monday amid fragile risk conditions.
Equities declined in Asia on Monday amid reduced expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts
The dollar advanced strongly following the employment release, although it failed to hold its best levels.
The Canadian dollar also pared initial losses from a headline dip in June employment with commodity currencies also recovering some losses.
Gold declined sharply on dollar gains with a dip below $1,400 per ounce before a tentative recovery amid weaker equity markets.
Oil prices were supported by reduced fears over global demand conditions.
Dax daily: 28 Jun 2019Thursday's session was very nice and with reasonably volatile moves for profitable trading. Dax first climbed to hit Wednesday's high and by doing this, the statistical probability of 82% to break previous day high or low was fulfilled. A bit later, sellers took over even though we expected them to react on higher prices. The price sliced through the support zone of 12 229 all the way towards 12 191, which functioned fantastically.
In the end, our analysis scored another success point as we fulfilled another statistic of price closing inside the previous day range, which had a probability of 87%. Today, we open with a small ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 344
Support: 12 120
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
G20 Meeting
Today's session hypothesis
For today, our chances are pretty balanced from the Price Action perspective. Nevertheless, it's important to mention that yesterday's lower price rejection was significantly vigorous. For such reason, Dax is likely to rose climb towards 12 344 where we could find some sellers and return back to yesterday's range. Due to the G20 meeting in Japan, we can expect a slower price movement and nervous markets.
German stocks - short on lack of fundamental & monetary fuelFundamentals:
- German industrial production declining (-1.8%)
- IFO business climate continuous decline from 105 to below 97 points in a year
- ECB program and rate cut insufficient support for economy
Technical:
- Daily double top formation
- 38.2 Fib level as TP1
Trade:
- Enter trade with SL above recent high
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2019 Welcome to a new trading week. Friday's session turned out as expected, but unfortunately, our zones didn't get a chance to play a role. The resistance at 12 337 and 12 373 didn't attract any sellers. They entered a bit higher at 12 409 and continued to dominate intra-day price action. Dax then closed just short of the support level laying at 12 219. Today, we open with a strong ascending candle and with a long gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 350
Support: 12 219, 12 191
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of breaking Friday's low stands at 96%
Macroeconomic releases
10:00 CEST - German Ifo Business Climate
Today's session hypothesis
Today we have a very high probability for breaking Friday's low. For this reason, every short signal has a clear target. If and once that happens, we could find some buyers at 12 219 or 12 191. Even though we have such a high probability for a certain market occurrence, don't forget to always manage your risk and don't bet too much on one card.
Dax daily: 20 Jun 2019By looking at the past two sessions, it is very clear that the waiting for FOMC does indeed affect the Dax. Yesterday’s session only had a range of 70 points and most of the time, we traded sideways, slightly to the downside. The session ended at the price 13 312.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 433
Support: 12 281
Statistics for today
25 % gap close
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
none
Today’s session hypothesis
Today’s morning gap did surprise many traders. The Dax jumped 59 points to the upside to test our long-term resistances. The probability of closing the gap is only 25%. It seems that this is a sign that we might test higher prices. Immediately this morning, we are battling with the resistance 12 378, next resistance is at 12 433, where buyers might slow down.
Dax daily: 14 Jun 2019 Thursday’s session has been considerably more active compared to the previous day. Dax first headed straight up without stopping at our first resistance zone. The second level of resistance laying at 12 194 functioned perfectly and the price even formed an intra-day high there. Following was a bounce back to our first level, now being a support zone where we found some buyers taking the price slightly up again. Today we open with the gap being already closed.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 264
Support: 12 121, 12 054
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
Today, we hope to descend towards 12 121 just to get buyers to take the price higher. In case Dax gets below 12 121, it is more likely the price will slow down in the consolidation area from Wednesday. If bulls are strong, then the first target is the swing high from 11 Jun, followed by a retest of the resistance level at 12 264.
Short - Dax - long term Sept. with an expanded bottomI am staying bearish. Technicals might need a recalibration under current market conditions.
I do not see the Dax flying to the moon soon, especially when the ripple effect of supply chain management across the world becomes a bigger issue and might get some stops and holds on their output - export of the automotive sector.
Deutsche bank is not in the clear yet, and the chance they default or need to pull a Lehman seems more of a direction. I have no reason to be optimistic when the theoratical cycle seems to indicate a recession. I aimed for recession 2022, but it might get a much faster pace.
Short Opportunity on DAX DAX has been on an upward rally for the past few months and has now come to an end. With fundamentals and technical analysis we can clearly see where DAX is now headed, DAX last week managed to break an important level of support with the Trade War and now the Mexican tariffs being imposed by Trump, the market is now on a downtrend potential, with nothing stopping it unless the trade war is paused or solved.
But for now, DAX is a shorting potential and certainty.
Dax daily: 31 May 2019 As we anticipated, the support level of 11 861 held the price pretty strongly for the entire session and didn’t allow sellers to go any deeper. The gap was then closed and the intraday trading closed priced 11 918.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 861
Support: 11 735
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
After yesterday’s successful day for buyers, we came surprised to see the strength of the morning gap. This one is sized with some 140 points which is quite unusual. Dax has now entered the zone below the significant support levels and this is where the price was for the past two months. The first price action level where it is likely for the price to stall is the level laying around 11 735. With the gaps of such size, it is more likely the price continues in the gap direction and it’s close is then less probable.
German DAX Stock Index (The strong trending days are over)We had a great run since early 2019 and now the bull momentum has stalled in recent weeks.
So, we may go into a dreadful range period for now with big range bound movement.
We can see the strong bullish support are near 11300 to 11500 regions and if there is any pullback to the mentioned region, we can expect a push back up.
Time the trade well.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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Thank You!
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