Head and Shoulders nearly complete. Wait for confirmation.DAX is about to complete a very long term Head and Shoulders pattern on the Monthly chart, thus the neutral RSI = 51.621, ADX = 29.826. 1D is a Channel Down formation (RSI = 34.363, MACD = -73.300, Highs/Lows = -357.2500, B/BP = -455.2462), which if the 12,080 support from the previous Lower Low breaks, will hit 11,900. If it is rejected, then it will rebound to form a new Lower High near 12,400. We use this support as a break-out confirmation point (crossing = short with TP = 11,900, rejection = long with TP 12,355.
Germany30
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis: Bounce Can Be TemporaryHello Traders,
In this short-term analysis, we will have a look at the German DAX Index.
DAX short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the rally to 12882.05 high ended red wave X bounce. The internals of that bounce unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where black wave ((w)) ended at 12640.87. Black wave ((x)) ended at 12468.68 and black wave ((y)) of red X ended at 12882.05 high.
Down from there, DAX is currently suggesting that it is unfolding as a potential 5 waves structure. Where blue wave (i) ended at 02/08/18 low (12491.53), blue wave (ii) pullback at 07/08/18 peak (12740.66), and blue wave (iii) at 08/13/18 low (12321.45). Currently, it is in the progress of making a pullback in blue wave (iv) before extending 1 more leg lower in blue wave (v) before a 3 waves bounce higher can be seen. We don’t like selling it.
Where is Germany Going?Disappointing German Manufacturing figures paint a very concerning picture for Europe's largest economy. Posting a 5.9% drop in foreign demand for German products in June, Manufacturing data is responding to Trade War speculation and Trump's proposed tariffs. Will this spill over into other Eurozone markets? More importantly where is the German economy headed in the next 6 months? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
Elliott Wave Analysis: DAX Ready For Rally Higher?Hello Traders,
DAX short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the pullback to 6.28.2018 low ended blue wave (2) at 12088.56. Up from there, the rally higher to 12769.8 higher ended red wave 1. The internals of that rally higher took place as impulse structure with internal sub-division of 5 wave structure in black wave ((i)), ((iii)) & ((v)). On the other hand, wave ((ii)) & ((iv)) took place in 3 waves corrective structure.
Above from 6.28.2018 low cycle, the rally higher to 12369.5 high ended black wave ((i)). Down from there, the pullback to 12115 low ended black wave ((ii)). The rally higher from there took place in 5 waves structure & ended the black wave ((iii)) at 12630 high. Below from there, the pullback to 12513.5 ended black wave ((iv)) as a contracting triangle. The final rally higher from there ended black wave ((v)) of red wave 1 at 12769.5 peak. Down from there, the correction against 6.28.2018 low cycle completed red wave 2 at 12454.5 low after reaching the blue box area at 12540.50-12446.86 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area. Near-term, while dips remain above 12454.5 low and more importantly above 12088.56 low, expect the Index to resume the upside in red wave 3 higher. We don’t like selling it.
German Stock Index DAX (*Bullishness can go further)
We have a nice strong bullish momentum on GER30 and it is likely to get carried forward further.
I am expecting it shall easily travel to 12590. If the bullishness persists, it can retest to 12800 regions.
Let's see,
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Sonic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
DAX setting up for break of key 12600 levelMain bearish outlook--
Another break of the long term rising trendline is bearish
Shallow rebound from 12610 low on June 19 has ended- setting up re-test and likely break of 12600
Next key support could be 12400
Bullish alternative
12600 level holds, maintaining trading range enrivonment
(level is significant because it was resistance after the February sell-off and support after the move to 13200)
Germany30, head and shoulders, 4 hour chartToday another weakness in the European market, mostly due to bad news from Italy and their governmental struggle.
Technically formed H&S pattern broke the neckline and is currently retesting is, after being rejected on 38% fib retracement of the move. It is also in line with a 200 SMA at the time of writing on a daily timeframe, a close below could further indicate a H&S trigger.
DAX German Stock index(Poised For A Short Term Swing Down)DAX
It is in a nice medium uptrend but we are seeing some bearish price action in H4. It should the potential swing down to a good support may be on the way.
I am seeing 13000 level as a good TP level aka support.
DYODD and Trade Safe
s0nic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Dax rising wedge inside a rising wedge...at the chart we have a rising wedge with minor waves and a rising wedge inside the minor wedge with minute waves. break of the red line with the minute waves can lead the price to test the green line with the minor waves. where a break of the minor wedge can lead the price back to between 12.400 and 12.540, where 12.400 is 0.5 on fibonacci levels and 12.540 is 0.618 on fibonacci levels, drawn from ((0)) - ((v)). While a test of the 13.200 level is eminent, and could go up and test the level, which is also 1.13 on fibonacci levels. this will also extend the minor and minute wave.
a break of the minute wave wedge , is possible where the price will have a harder time to break the minor wedge ( the green wedge )
A short trade can be taken now, where the SL will be just above the last high at 13.045,80. where TP will be around the intermediate wave 2.
Take in mind that the price is very bullish on the short term, but we actually also see some weakness in the momentum for the upside. a correction of the short term bullish run will happen, before further gains.
More updates will come..
German Stock Index (*A Potential TOP is in)DAX
We had a strong break out 2 days ago and it is stalled now.
I am watching the regions of 12,800 very closely.
If the price cannot break out that region again, we should see a SELL down toward 12,550 and 12,420 region.
Of course, the bias will become invalid if the price swing strongly above 12,800 level.
DYODD and Trade Safe
s0nic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
German Stock Index (DAX) *The Swing down is INLet's talk about DAX.
I am seeing the exhaustion of the index and it may be due for a pull back, at least a small one.
It can go to 12,450 as an easy restest.
DYODD and Trade Safe
s0nic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Ger30 Bump and run The price have broken out of a downward trend channel and haven't tested the breakout line yet.
the price have had a 44 angle down trend, with a following 63 angle of breakout.
The movements have also made a double top on the upwards run. this 2 tops can be counted as a triple top test. If you look at the start of the trend channel, you se the price have ben testing this area before.
I see the price retrace back to the breakout line, and testing the 12148 level, if break of that level, we will se the price move back into the trend channel and where we go from there is a good question.
A break of level 12649, we could se the price go to 12925 before further downside moves.
The Oscillator have also produced a higher low, while the price have produced a lower low. (Marked with yellow rings.)
This is a regular bullish divergence. Before i see further upside i would like to se a confirmation of that bullish indicator, with a test of the 12148 level, and will be seen as a retracement of the price which is healthy before a bull run.
Good luck :)
Germany 30 overview for this week. Fundamental and technical.
The price have been holding below the 0.5 level on fibonacci, 12599.4.
And could be sending a signal, that the price have more downturn to come.
The price failed to break the 0.707 level on fibonacci, which is also the
resistance line in the trend channel. this can be a sign of further downside, also looking at the
aggressively bearish candle almost right after it hit the resistance line.
I see a five wave minuette sequence, that is about to form. with 11166.9 as the bottom,
which is also 1.27 on fibonacci level.
If the price breaks the trend channel, it can be heading towards 12532.5 area before retracement
back to the resistance line on the trend channel, which will be the new support for the price befor further upside.
Wave (i) 11930.1
Retracement to (ii) 12187.4
Continuation down to (iii) 11489.4
Retracement to (iv) 11701.2
and continuation to the fifth and last wave (iv) 11164.8 before correctional waves. ( i will post this if this analysis is validated)
In the Technical analysis we also have
Regular bullish divergence (Yellow rings)
while at the same time we have hidden bearish divergence (Red rings)
This is sending a lot of mixed signals, and the price will be very volatile in the coming days, weeks and months.
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Fundamental:
There is happening a lot in the markets right now. We have a brewing trade war, with Trump using his negotiation skills to get more lucrative deals with China. China have been aggressively and have hit back with the same actions, and promise to counter measure the same tarifs as the US. The problem is that china is running out of areas it can strike back with on the tariffs, as china only have a $169.8 billions of imports from US. if china will impose also the threatening $100 billion from US on additional import tariffs.
Therefore china have no option but to strike on the companies operating in china and can be very costly for the American companies that are in Chine.
This week we have a very weak economical data coming out from the Euro zone. with German trade balance Monday. French CPI Thursday. German and spanish CPI Friday. The data have a consensus as last time numbers.
From The US we have a lot of medium importance numbers. We have PPI Tuesday which is expected to be 0.1% let than previously
and core PPI which is forecasted to be holding a steady level, with the same as last time. also we have FOMC member speaking the same day.
Wednesday we have Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) which is forecasted to be 0.3% higher than last data. also we have FOMC Meeting minutes.
Thursday with Initial jobless claims which is forecasted to be 231k. Last time it was at 242k and is a slight decline in the data.
Friday we have 3 FOMC speakers JOLT´S Job opening, and Michigan Consumer sentiment.
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We have for a short position:
1. 5 wave sequence formation
2. The price have tested the resistance on the trend channel and failed to break it.
3. The price have been staying below the 0.5 Fibonacci level
4. Bearish Hidden divergence ( marked with red rings)
5. Fundamentals, a coming week with a thin amount of macroeconomics data from Euro zone.
6. Trade war, with no negotiations, between US and China in sight.
7. FOMC speakers with a hawkish view on the interest rate hikes.
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For a long position.
1. The price have been testing the support at 12150.5, and have not broken it yet.
2. Regular Bullish divergence ( marked with yellow rings)
3. Can be heading towards 0.5% on fibonacci to test the level.
4. Positive numbers from the US.
DAX Rising wedgeA rising wedge is forming after a longer downtrend.
The rising wedge are functioning as a consolidation pattern.
Take in minde that a rising wedge is a poor performer, historically.
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Entry will be when the support is brokken.
if so we could se the price go to 11.800 and 11.700
If not, and the price breaks the resistance line. we could se price go to 12.190. before further downside.
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The index is very correlated with EUR/USD
i se the price of the euro slide a bit further befor gaining again, and therefore the price of dax, have a good chance for further gains. before the 2 mentioned is making a u-turn.
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1. Rising wedge
2. Lower prices in EUR/USD
3. bullish regular divergence ( see in the RSI and Chart)