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Is something big coming?If you don't know about the VIX, why are you trading? It's an index of volatility in the S&P500. But.. but.. hold on. What happens in the S&P500 affects loads of other things, like key forex pairs e.g. AUD, NZD, JPY, USD It won't tell you about entry and exit points in your trades. But it could tell you when markets are very volatile. Wait - aren't traders supposed to love volatility? Well, yes and no. There are basically two types of traders: 1 - those who know how to exploit volatility with sound strategies 2 - those who fear volatility and are basically gambling. I'm not saying anything about any trader who reads this. What I am saying is, "Get develop the skills to exploit volatility." So what does the chart show. It's showing that the Vix is wild and that every few months, it goes into a frenzy. I don't expect the Vix to have a regular interval. If that was the case then 'everybody' would wait for the right time and make a killing in the markets. I'm saying that the last long run of lowish volatility may herald a new round, as folk get shaken out or make millions. This is not trading advice. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
CBOE:VIX
by Captain_Walker
6
BITCOIN FRENZY: BEWAREThis is not a prediction. The daily chart of BTC is actually showing no surprises. But if you read lamestream media you will see how people are scratching their heads about a recent pump north on BTC. There are two important structure areas. The recent pump came off one of them - because 'everybody' was thinking the same thing. The next structure area is in sight around 50,000. I don't know - nor can I predict that price will bounce south off 50,000-ish. What I can imagine of human nature is that 'everybody' might get the same idea to dump around that price point. ATR switches on the daily time frame have about a 55% reliability (from my own experience) - which is better than rolling dice. I don't know if price will get into the higher troubled zone. It could collapse now. I just don't know. Nothing in this post is to be relied upon, because am not a fortune teller. See the fat disclaimer below and on the chart. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
1
NZDJPY: Stay tunedThe chart shows development of a serious 4H trend south. Price now struggling out of an RSI trench and could be forming a reversal or rebellion pattern. Generally RSI trenches are not places to go short, as basically you're late in the game. Of course price could disrespect the RSI - I've seen that happen - but generally initiating a short in a RSI trench (with a probably rebellion pattern) is low gain and risky. My plan to tackle this: 1. Avoid FOMO. 2. Wait for a position of advantage - if price returns near a flattened area of the ATR (amber line). 3. If price gets there in a rebellion, then I short with for a controlled loss. Sorry I don't give specifics nor do I give advice. I give my opinion which is quite often wrong. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
AUDUSD: This could get seriousSome never look higher. I always look higher. I've fond that in general the higher time frames behave differently than those below 15 min, in terms of volatility. The 3D and above time frames (like the weekly) are macroeconomic time frames. They tend to be slow and not as choppy as say 15 min time frame. When stuff happens on large time frames, expect trouble on the lower time frames which they tend to rule over. Large time frames are useful because they can give a steer on where 15 min to 1 hour price movements get into difficulty. Have you ever wondered why price just stops and reverses at some weird point? That's becuz the big boys know what they're doing.
by Captain_Walker
DOLLAR SURPRISE: THE BITE!As some will know, I've been following the US Dollar - DXY - which is a basket of currencies. The DXY is calculate comparing the USD against the weight of six major world currencies, which include the Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). The EUR makes up almost 58 percent of the basket. The weights of the rest of the currencies in the index are: JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), and CHF (3.6%). It needs some thought but if you were long on the EUR/USD and short on DXY, you're doing this all wrong. If you're short on EUR/USD and long on DXY that would be correct. Advances of the DXY north basically means the USD is whipping the rest of the basket. Just hold on a sec - I'm not saying the USD will whip the EUR all the time. My following of the DXY was a trend following analysis, that started on the 3-day time frame. It was an amazing experience because it brought out the characteristics of this macro-economic index. It's very wild and does not conform well to traditional strategies. What I've learned is how unpredictable and volatile it is. You'd be gambling if you were taking shots at it on a 15 min time frame. What seemed to work was the 'theory of curves' which basically picked out the large trend direction. I never recommended trading the DXY. I used it to get an idea what was likely to happen in other currencies with USD and how that might affect stock indices, BTC, Gold, other metals and commodities. The USD is still the world's major currency. It is a sort of liquid-gold. If you're the FED, you can print as much as you like. Obviously that's nice for the FED cuz they can't print gold! But there is a problem. Most news items have said in the last 3 months that the dollar is dying fast. The reality is that the dollar has been appreciating despite all the reckless QE. It doesn't make sense. Who said that markets have to make sense? Not me! So the big competition is just starting up. Do 'you' buy liquid-gold or the real gold? Do you buy liquid-gold in preference to stocks? I'm not seeking advice. It's a question for sensible traders to consider - and there may be no right answer. What's next? How would I know? I only look at trends. The markets will tell me what's next. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
What's happening with Gold?Loads of people were demoralised on Friday 6th August 2021, when Gold took an amazing dip south. That was part of a 30 min trend switch. But - as I always say look higher. Now strangely, I am actually bearish on Gold in the long run. However, the technical picture is showing something different on the 1D time frame. And there are conflicting trends on lower time frames e.g. The 4H is saying south is the probability. The point is that you gotta pick a trend on a time frame and stick with it, win or lose - just make sure your losses are affordable. So - the 1D time frame is showing a lovely theory of curves (TOC). This usually creates a probability on that time frame only for further movement in the leading edge of the curve (which is for the north). How far? How would I know? I don't own the future. If price falls out of the TOC and continues south on the 2h and 4h, then Gold could be in real trouble. This is also possible because watch the ATR trend switch on the Daily which is sharp and bearish. The 2h and 4h time frames live within it. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Captain_Walker
EURAUD (1D) - watch zone or kill zone.It looks like some sort of head and shoulders. The momentum of price coming off the head was indicative of some follow through below the base and that has happened. Price has done the expected: ducking under the base and then popping back up for a retest. I just draw it like I find it, connecting what I see as the main points. I can never know if the market will approve or disapprove what I see, until much later on. The situation is getting ripe for a controlled loss in a short position. It could be right now or much later on. But H and S theory says we should wait for the retest to be complete. The trouble is you don't really know when the retest has been completed. Sound traders do more watching and planning than trading. I don't know if my watch zone is accurate. How would I know? I don't normally play 1D time frames, so in this scenario - which is obviously for a short setup - I'd be looking for a consistent ATR trend on 30 min to 1 hour time frame, to develop south. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
Is Bitcoin in real trouble?Well, some sneered a few weeks ago when I pointed out the 1D trend switch, that created a probability of a 50% correction. It happened. There was a deafening silence thereafter. As I say too often trend switches create probabilities which predict nothing. In this chart I'm looking at the 3D time frame where price has moved up to touch the ATR line. This is usually a critical point. It doesn't mean that price is bound to reverse. If you believe Bitcoin is going to $500,000 this is your opportunity to put your money where your mouth is. If you believe price is likely to vacillate at this this level and travel further south then you short it - at your own risk of course. If you are a sensible trader and you want to wait - avoiding FOMO - then do that. The great thing about trading is that you can do whatever you want! Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
Goods don't need transport - right?This could be good news - or bad news. Watch the divergence between the the S&P and two transportation indices. Some will see something and some will see nothing. Pain usually awakens the senses. Get ready for pain. Did I say when pain in coming? How would I know? I hung out my clothes from the washing machine to dry in bright sunlight this morning. Then suddenly a downpour came. Drat! I screamed. The weather report did not inform me sudden heavy rain would fall! I couldn't see it coming. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
TVC:SPX
by Captain_Walker
1
Mind the Indian Stock Market!The Indian Market has seen some an insane frenzy of bullishness in recent weeks. Favourable PMI numbers and overjoy about expanding economies have led the gamblers to go north like nobody's business in the last few days. Errh.. they forgot about supply chain bottlenecks. 🙄 The interesting thing about this position is what it 'makes'' you think - or is that 'feel'? I don't know what's going to happen. Let me say that again, I don't know what's going to happen. The reality is that the Indian economy is in dire straits at the grass roots. The further excitement travels from reality, the greater is the eventual pain. For new traders, have you noticed that when you get stopped out price tends to reverse just a few points after? Then you shout expletives when price follows your original direction and you get left behind. It's soooo infuriating! 😠👿 Why? Price has a higher probability of reversal at peaks and troughs on any time frame. The trouble is setting your stop loss with enough elasticity to catch it, whilst avoiding FOMO. This is not advice - it is experience shared. (Mind my brutal disclaimer below). Price usually reverses at a point much greater than we anticipate, even after all the technical analysis. That's been happening a whole lot, especially in the pandemic period. So - positions like this one on the daily Indian charts are very difficult to short. Keep in mind that shorting is always more difficult in Stock indices than going long. The great thing about short-selling indices (around this time) is that if they drop, they have a long way to go. So no rush. Small position sizes with very wide affordable stop losses are one answer to the ridiculous volatility. When a deep trend develops on the 15 to 30 min time frame that's the one to watch. I don't fight a daily time frame! Both the Indian and German markets have recently decided to track the USTECH100. That's pretty dangerous gambling. How? When the crash (>50% correction) starts we know it's going to start with TECH. P/E ratios are wild in the tech sector, and totally unrealistic. But of course it depends on which guru you believe. Some recall what happened in the Dotcom era. Some have forgotten. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
I
by Captain_Walker
3
AUS200: NO SLEEP - POPCORN AND PIZZA TONIGHT!No sleep for me tonight - and I'll be feeding on popcorn and beer! 🤣😂 Maybe a pizza or two. 🍕🍕 The set up here looks like a good short coming up. (Note the brutal disclaimers). 1. There is big trouble with Chinatown all over the world. Something about China banning shares on some American exchange - or something like that. The Dragon Index took a nose dive, and that reverberated into the Tech100. (See snapshot below - and check the news). 2. The Aussies are usually delayed in reacting. I don't know why. Maybe they're asleep due to some time zone effect when the action has happened. The current reaction is slow, on one 4H candle but the price action is better seen on 5 to 15 min time frames. 3. What happens with the Aussies - and I've seen it too many times - is that they wake up and go "OMG!" Then they panic buy or sell. 4. Normally the big action starts around 00:30 to 01:00 UK local time. As the Aussies open their exchange fully, there is usually some serious price action on 5 to 15 min time frames. Usually if sudden movement happens in that half-hour that sets the stage for what'll happen next in terms of direction - but expect big whipsaws between 00:30 and 02:00 AM. Whipsaws are nice if you know what you're doing. If you don't stay out! 5. The Aussie track both Tech and DJI for sense of direction. Well, as USTech has been clobbered, I expect the Aussies to run scared. Hello - I could always be wrong. This is shared experience - not advice! The smartest people so far are the Germans. The DAX took a pump south already. Now they're consolidating and thinking what to do next. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
2
DON'T get wedgied! Peak excitement on Friday - as retail traders pumped various markets with billions in cash. This was alongside institutional traders who had been bailing out. Well, retail won a significant limb of this, from the bottom edge of what now looks like an ascending broadening wedge following a major bullish drive. Biden echoed the FED's mantra on transitory inflation in the last few days. That seemed to be a signal for retail traders on the apps to dive in. Ascending broadening wedges after long bull drives north, are usually a signal of weakness. Just to be clear (and read my disclaimer below), this does not mean that the market will crash now. Price could move significantly up and whipsaw the top of the wedge before heading for the moon! 🌛 This wedge formation creates probabilities. Probabilities exist in minds. The probability estimate based on this snapshot (right now), is for a significant correction. This is not advice! This is opinion - a very different thing to advice. How probabilities work : If 'you' estimate there is a 51% chance of a correction, that leaves a 49% chance there will be no correction. A lot of novice traders forget about the lesser probability, which does not favour their mindset. There are other silent probabilities adding up in the background (DYOR): 90 year economic cycle, coinciding with 20 and 10 year cycles - and we're not out of the woods with a major pandemic. We are at year 11+. Some say 'cycles mean nothing'. Everybody is entitled to their own belief. I think these are dangerous times to be throwing money into the market going long. If you are about to short this position, you have to have money that you can afford to lose. Read that again. If you can't lose money, stop trading - instantly! Alternative reasoned perspectives are most welcome. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
U
by Captain_Walker
This is not the top of my head. Just saying.LOL! 😀 Right this is an amazing thing. You could see whatever you want in there. Is it a scallop? Is it an inverted cup and handle? Or if you're mathematical it could just be a curve. Some may even see a double bottom. With trading, you can see what you like. The formation may mean something or it may mean nothing. It's attractive though, so something could happen here. I don't know how soon. For me, it's about readiness. That means watching for price action. Most of trading is about watching and planning. Let's do this! ✊ Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
BITCOIN: 69 DAYS OF HELL!It was 69 days of real hell, as Bitcoin crashed to a 61.8% Fib. Some will recall (or not) that I had said the daily trend switch was important. I was not flavour of the last 2 months for sure. Was I a doomsday predictor? I was not! The chart said something - not me. And now there is mounting excitement at the 61.8 Fib. Depending on which news you read, you will hear that some are calling 30,000 as a way point for a reversal, to 500,000! Some say, " It can't go any lower. " How do they know? What people want is someone to predict the future for them. This daily chart is saying something important: ' The trend south is not over '. A significant level for a trend change would be above 40,000. But getting above 40,000 is not 'the thing'. The speed at which price gets above 40,000 would be important. How? Price behaves like a physical object, it tends to carry momentum. I tend to look for accelerations and sustained lift off (or breakdown). So - what's next? How would I know? I'm waiting on the market to tell me. At this particular point in time (on the daily time frame), the chart is saying ' probability is still for the south '. The news is saying ' long now! ' Is the trend your friend or is the news your friend? The choice is yours. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
1
Zones of advantage - if shorting the DAXI show two zones of advantage. The first has happened already. Those looking to short the DAX may be interested in another zone. Certainly shorting after a significant fall is not a great idea, especially as bulls may be looking at a possible double bottom. The zones do not mean that the market has to obey them! The zones create probabilities. An additional advantage is that that price is under a trend switch on the 4H time frame. Scenarios to prepare for (notes to self): 1. Price rocks north and busts through both zones. 2. Price collapses now. 3. Price consolidates before moving north or south. The big issue here is avoiding FOMO. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WHSELFINVEST:GERMANY40CFD
by Captain_Walker
Is this a breakdown or a meltup?The choice is yours - you can see it any way you like. The technical features here are: 1. Reducing peaks of squeeze momentum. 2. Recent RSI is below 50. 3. Rejection of 4H ATR line. 4. Large area of consolidation. Caution: none of the above means that price has to crash. Just to be clear - price could well go to the moon. The technical situation in my assessment (at this time) means greater probability for the south. Probability estimates do not predict how far a movement may go. This is a set up for a trend-following scenario i.e. high risk to high gain. High risk means high probability of big losses, if you don't know what you're doing if you short this. Following a trend south means finding a suitable trend that is below the 4H time frame. There is no magic formula to work that out. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
Is Gold getting ready? A pattern with Gold could repeat. No predictions. Get ready. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Captain_Walker
CADJPY(1D) - KILL ZONEIt's a kill zone. But wait - that doesn't mean that if you short in the kill zone you're gonna make loadsah money! It means that you need to be able to afford the loss. I never hide potential losses in any set up. Trading is about risk of failure and losses, so I always keep that in focus. One does not have to trade a 1D time frame. There are numerous micro-trends in a daily trend which are far safer to exploit. Stay safe. Don't burn cash. Wash your hands and face. 😂🤣 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
Lumber bubble pops - what does it mean?Some may not be aware of the importance of lumber price movements. Basically lumber rocketed like nobody's business, then crashed (>50% correction) pretty quickly. This post is not an analysis of why lumber prices rose so crazily. Viewers will need to do some background reading. The collapse was the worst seen since 1978 . That's something to chew on. In essence it was a bubble that popped. It was about demand going wild for all sorts of reasons, with no true underlying 'value'. That phenomenon has been seen repeatedly across all asset classes. It happens when something is fundamentally wrong with market booms. Those who would purchase lumber wised up; the market became saturated in extreme overbought territory, and those who would have been using lumber (for house-building etc) basically switched from 'commodity' purchases to 'services'. That's the broad brush and I can't give chapter and verse here. People went on holidays! I didn't say 'everybody'. Yes - read about it. They decided, ' Now is not a good time - I'll do some travelling and living instead '. Funny but true. But what's underlying the lumber bubble pop, is that the Housing market has suffered a similar pop. Ahhhh.. some will disagree with me because they're not seeing much about that in the news. Well BigMedia news is usually 3 to 6 months late! And of course, people believe more than 50% of what they read in the #LameStreamMedia news - but will never admit that. I'm not about to deviate onto the metrics for the Housing Bubble pop here. Serious traders and investors can find that on the net from reputable channels on popular non-conventional streaming channels. But don't expect the whole picture to be found in one place. The lumber pop, in conjunction with the housing pop - is basically bad news for loads of commodity sectors. If you don't believe me go back to 2007-2009. This is literally where the 'house of cards' (pun intended) collapsed. History repeats itself because human nature doesn't change much. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
L
by Captain_Walker
2
AUSSIES: Advance noticeIt's not quite a head and shoulders just yet. This is about watching for potential situations and preparing for them. As I showed in other charts, sometimes we can get a a second right shoulder in ultra-bullish markets but there is no law on what can happen in these markets. Readiness is (almost) everything. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
1
Fee, Fi, Fo - FED!In the vid, I overview interesting moves in the DJI. Tensions are rising. The latest market burn down doesn't look great for the FED. But.. but.. when you have access to literally and endless supply of money, you can do whatever you like (almost). The FED has been throwing money into the so-called economy in the hundreds of Billions per week. I'm using economy in a very broad sense. They're 'tinkering' with stock markets, REPO markets, Bond Markets - you name it, they're in it. Of course in some instances you won't see the 'hand of the FED' because they're using a dozen or so 'tools' as they call them. So you might see the tip of the tool, but not the 'hand of the FED'. If they FED was not in the DJI at all would it have re-inflated that much. Not many (sensible) people believe that. It's basically free money at near zero interest rates and a generous REPO market. In other words its like going to a casino and the house says, " No problem have as many chips as you want! " This is crazy stuff. Reality always comes back around to bite. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
DJI (1D): Watch the Heiken Ashi CandlesThis is a short and different take. The DJI could be about to correct - significantly. No promises. The Heiken Ashi candles are telling us something. Sound traders will listen to their 'voice'. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
Is that Dollar surprise still coming?A dollar surprise can still hit. There is a last line of defence for the Dollar. Price has come into a structure area, either a double-bottom or triple bottom, and the 3D ATR line is just below price. Some say that the US Dollar is bound to crash. That's not necessarily true. Read up on 'Dollar Smile Theory'. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
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TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
6