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GEX

2.2 Billion Reasons to be short this market in march.I'm going to breakdown JPM big 20 billion dollar Put Spread Collar Hedge trade early this quarter. The trade usually gets a lot of attention when they do the roll/reset on the day it expires each quarter. For the uninitiated, this trade occurs every quarter by JPM as a premium neutral hedge (market crash protection) for a 20B fund. Furus try to explain the delta of it on the day of the trade, but that is not where this trade interests me. If you follow Gamma and Vanna Exposure of the options world, you would likely know on any given day if the market is currently positive or negative gamma exposure. You may follow Cem Karsan on twitter like I do and know about Gary and his Bananas or more recently Vanna. This trade is often a focus on Cems threads when it approaches expiry and I think I finally figured out how to measure its effects on the market. Here is a graph of the a 21 day moving average of Gamma Exposure. pretty neat how something as random as the stock market can provide such a recurring pattern. This idea is just a primer for 21DMA GEX, I'll be following it up in the next few weeks with numbers behind it and how I plan to trade this very cyclic pattern. Trade Safe. Not financial Advice, just Mad Magazine Data Science.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
4
Bear Flag vs Bull TrapLast 2 weeks have been bearish through APPL and TSLA earnings. Attention now turns to Amazon earnings (feb2) as they teeter on oversold RSI and below 2yr support. Not regaining this support from bad earnings will likely see this S&P bearish flag breakout to the downside. Canadians wielding pitchforks and torches, Russia and nato saber rattling and China facing off with covid olympics, I’m not feeling too bullish this week. There were some positive flows in futures Friday morning that ended with a strong rally to end the week in a better position for a gap up Monday to lower negative gamma range above 4475 and a floor of 4400. Gamma Exposure (GEX) from SPX options tool I created on my website. Head over to www.spyvsgme.com for delayed quotes (15-min delay from CBOE). I’ll be adding more information as I create more options indicators going forward. I’m going to be cautious and enter a short below 4300 on heavy selling, otherwise I think the market waits for AMZN earnings for guidance in the 4475-4400 range. Not a very high likelihood of this bearish flag playing out, but with all the damage done to markets the last 2 weeks I’m staying mostly liquid and riding the waves up and down. >>Not Financial Advice.<< I have never solved the rubik’s cube.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SPYvsGME
3
Storm Over?I updated the GEX indicator this morning to include puts & calls so you can visualize the changes in gamma exposure. If you want to see other tickers, head on over to www.spyvsgme.com . Once I’m happy with the indicator I will publish the source code. What I keep seeing is the puts building up lower (80 strike) bringing down the gamma zero strike which is now dropped to 100. With prices creeping up back over 100 yesterday, it could mean less volatile price movement as positive gamma exposure is typically less volatile. Keep in mind, the overall SPX & NDX are still in very negative gamma so it's likely there will be more choppy waters ahead. This leads to great opportunities for traders with their head & shoulders upside down. Yesterday the intraday on SPY presented an inverse head and shoulders that paid out exactly to the 161.8% fib extension. Futures are all over the place this morning. GME seems to be weathering the storm. It's kind of poetic, that nearly 1yr ago, I was mocked for telling everyone on WSB that I thought the fair value for GME was $100 given everything that happened. One interesting development I noticed yesterday was CHWY was positive and ran 13.7%. Curious what the sentiment shift is in relation to GME anniversary. Is it possible shorts were covering to balance losses in other tech like NFLX and AMZN? It is an interesting correlation to say the least. Not financial Advice.
NYSE:GMELong
by SPYvsGME
2
Da Bears Head & ShouldersA bearish week is an understatement for how much and how quickly the markets turned and broke the bottom of a 2 yr bull trendline. If you read my bear review for Jan, I identified how important this last OPEX cycle was going to be. What I discovered last week was that the indexes crashed through a significant gamma zero line when FOMC (JAN5) indicated more rate hikes this year. You can find these key gamma levels using a GEX tool I created at www.spyvsgme.com GEX can be calculated using the options chain. In this case, SPX options are used to hedge dealers exposure to the trades they sell. A significant pattern I missed last week was this H&S pattern with a retest of the neck line and a bounce and rejection of the 161.8% fib. Overnight Bitcoin followed suit and tested its H&S 161.8% target. Doesn’t matter if you are a bull or a bear, be careful out there. BULL CASE If you’re a bull, you’re looking for a strong reversal here at the 200% and a retest of the 161.8% at 4435. Win that and we could see a V-shaped recovery and regain positive gamma on the SPX ~4595. BEAR CASE The indexes are extremely oversold now so even a bear would expect a period of distribution before another move lower. If you look back in March of 2020 you will see after the first week of the correction there were several quick moves up before continuing down. The 4350 strike on SPX seems to have the lowest Call exposure and is likely where pinning of the indexes will be through this next FOMC in a few days. Basing here for 2 days before a break lower is the most likely scenario. Either case is very difficult to predict as unexpected events now would be a cause for a market crash. Not financial advice. I’m a meat popsicle.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
GAMMA GAMMA GAMMA GAMMELEONBoy George this week has been nuts. I haven't had as much time to work on the GEX tool as I had hoped but I did get some work done on testing it. Check it out at www.spyvsgme.com A lot of gamma exposure rolled off this week and brought the gamma zero strike from 140 down to 125 and a 2.3M GEX. Price target of 125 this week seems reasonable as total GEX has rolled positive. Could see some relief rallies next week in the indexes as a metric ton of negative gamma exposure rolled off indexes and big names like Tesla. Gamma Zero targets for next week look this GME 104 -> 125 TSLA 936 -> 1045 AAPL 161 -> 165 SPY 437 -> 465 FOMC next week, if JPow remains hawkish we could see even deeper sell offs on indexes. In that case I would be looking for lower targets. SPX still has nearly -1B GEX GME 104 -> 100 TSLA 936 -> 900 AAPL 161 -> 160 SPY 437 -> 425 Not financial Advice. Just GEX
NYSE:GMELong
by SPYvsGME
1
GME vs GEXYou may have heard about this greek called Gamma. If you haven’t, I’m not going to talk about it much except to tell you that it's important. I told you I would do something special for my 1yr GME anniversary, so I took to coding up a Gamma exposure tool (GEX) that I will be giving out for free once I get it tested next week. The tool is simple enough but will provide GME traders with some important levels. The levels are based on Gamma exposure from options and identifying where gamma flips from negative to positive. It's nothing new, but access to an entire Options Chain and being able to calculate the gamma exposure is something most alpha providers hide behind a paywall as some secret sauce to get you to pay for a subscription. That's not me. I think all information regarding a stock should be accessible to everyone, particularly the less wealthy traders like us gamers. Why is GEX important? Gamma exposure is important because it acts as a driving force for underlying assets. That is to say, when a market maker's exposure to an asset is overly positive, the dealers will sell into a rally and buy into dips, inversely, when the mm is negative gamma, they will buy into a rally and sell into a dip. It’s safe to assume once the mm exposure to that asset is negative like it is with GME below 140 gamma flip, you’re likely to get more volatility. Usually this gamma zero acts as a type of support for an asset, but if you have been living under a rock, you may not have heard the shifting sentiment in the marketplace moving to a more risk-off appetite. It's why you see shares of VIAC rising and our beloved GME breaking the gamma zero support and turning much more negative. The bad news is, there is a rather large negative exposure to GME at 100, something to the tune of -1.6million that seems to be the likely drawdown. I still need to verify my gamma exposure numbers and make sure I’m not missing anything. Something tells me the ETFs that include GME may offer some more gamma exposure I’m not seeing. Either way, next week I will open-source the code and publish the tool/data to be verified. I will then attempt to make sense out of ETFs affecting this recent drawdown. As always, not financial advice. I’m a meat popsicle and…
NYSE:GMELong
by SPYvsGME
7
Ready for a Big Correction? US30 - SPX500 - NDX 15/4/2021We've been seeing a huge rise in the Dow Jones, now it needs a breather so I'm trying to enter a short after a possible stop hunt to the upside, right around 34k. The market is driving through a bunch of potholes with fears of QE ending. Powell mentioned the FED will taper QE before they hike rates, hedge funds with exposure to quadrillions in the derivatives bubble, system risk at an all-time high. GEX at an all-time high too, dark pools getting in on the Short of the Century? What do you think? Will it go parabolic instead?
OANDA:US30USDShort
by PrecisionCharts