#EURGBP peaked during the #GFC @ 0.98 I expect during these coming few years and possibly next financial crisis this to be run. What does this suggest severe weakness in the UK economy Or the ability and the magnitude of easing to come from the BOE to dwarf the ECB's response either way trade with the prevailing trend would be my...
Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse, has consistently delivered impressive performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. This strong performance is rooted in Germany's strong manufacturing sectors and robust export activities. The country's economic strength is exemplified by the DAX's considerable outperformance of other...
This 2 charts reminds me of a James Bond movie, Skyfall. There is a claim by many that, these companies are too big to fail. Oh yeah? 7th largest investment bank in the world is get steamrolled. Yesterday about 6pm Malaysia time, Credit Suisse ($CSGN) got halted due to excessive selling. Robert Kiyosaki predicts this bank will be next. Today, Larry Fink of...
S&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023 on the 4 hour chart. Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January. 1) Always have your stop loss in place. 2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering. 3) Always be open to...
S&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023 on the 4 hour chart. Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January. 1) Always have your stop loss in place. 2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering. 3) Always be open to...
S&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023. Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January. 1) Always have your stop loss in place. 2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering. 3) Always be open to being wrong, and exit...
S&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023. Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January. 1) Always have your stop loss in place. 2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering. 3) Always be open to being wrong,...
Simultaneous 2W Red Bars for all the above*. SPY is in pink so it stands out (by popular request). This is relatively rare p= 0.028: 11 out of 387 bars since GFC The chart shows the 11 periods with a yellow vertical line. Each asset is shown independently (upper left) as well as a horde (bottom) Since the choice of ETF's was neither complete nor systematic,...
I posted a month ago how the NDX was following its own 2008 GFC trend and now so is the S&P. If we assume these trends hold then expect the S&P to capitulate around 3400 sometime in August. After that, the bear market will be over for this index. Keep in mind we are facing a very different set of macro-level events, so it could easily break from this, and if it...
a quick comparison of Silver vs SPX, DJI, IXIC, VIX, HSI SPX S&P 500 DJI Dow Jones Index IXIC Nasdaq Composite VIX Volatilite S&P 500 HSI Hang Seng Index 'The 2008 financial crisis is one of the worst economic disasters ever The economy went into recession. It caused the biggest recession since the great depression of 1930. It is also referred to as the...
I took the Great Financial Crash and copy pasted it aligning it with the S&P ATH. I kept the % drawdown the same, and it aligned with the COVID bottom by coincidence. Not a prediction in any way, shape or form. But it's an interesting exercise to visualise how the drawdowns and the timing worked out then.
Outer Perspective (Monthly Chart) Half way through the month of May and Gold is climbing seeing highs not seen since November 2012. Hopefully momentum and world dynamics in its favour to test levels depicted on the left hand side of the chart and breaks the wicks of 1795 and above. Area of Interest Looking to the highs. Gold is placed well into the close to...
2020 The Great CoviDebt Reset sees markets initially drop by -36%. FED pushes market back up by +33%, right near the monthly 20 EMA level. CB intervention continues to push markets higher which further widens the gap between the markets and economic reality. The last two major pullbacks during the 2001 tech bubble and 2008 global financial crisis saw >50%...
I've stuck with looking at M1 as a general proxy for economic stimulus more broadly for the sake of simplicity as this an overview. The primary implicit question here is whether or not more economic stimulus will be effective or not and to what extent under the present circumstances. The need for liquidity in the markets has certainly been evident recently, as...
As we contemplate the convergence of long-term US rates with that of Europe and Japan as well as the Japanification of the global economy, it is useful think about the potential impact on banks. Yes, low rates are not good for banks and as we have seen in Japan, perpetual low rates does not equate to an increase in velocity of money. That chapter in financial...
As we contemplate the convergence of long-term US rates with that of Europe and Japan as well as the Japanification of the global economy, it is useful think about the potential impact on banks. Yes, low rates are not good for banks and as we have seen in Japan, perpetual low rates does not equate to an increase in velocity of money. That chapter in financial...