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NOTABLE HIGH IV STOCKS WITH IV > 50%1. P, 79% 2. FCX, 76% 3. X, 75% 4. TWTR, 67% 5. STX, 57% 6. ABX, 56% 7. NFLX, 56% 8 GG, 53% 9. SLW, 52% Naturally, we are coming into earnings season here, so there's a reason that some of these have high IV here (e.g., NFLX announces in a week and a half). Ordinarily, I like IV to be >50% and IVR (current IV's level relative to where it's been for the past 52 weeks to be high, too), but I may not find a great deal of 70%+ IVR plays here with broad market volatility so low (VIX finished the week below 15). Neverthless, it may be worthwhile to churn through this small list for premium selling plays (iron condors, short strangles, short straddes), assuming there's sufficient time before earnings to sneak a play in. Otherwise, it's probably best just to wait to do the standard volatility contraction play surrounding earnings ... .
P
by NaughtyPines
3
#Gold Testing Support Near Term Bounce ExpectedGold is testing lower levels of support as market participants aim to price in a potential rate hike in June by the Federal Reserve. While intraday price action is oversold, the daily chart is indicating further selling could continue to below $1,230. If a close below this key level occurs, traders can expect XAUUSD to reach $1,215. Subscribers of MacroView's "Daily Grind" were alerted of the potential of a $30+ drop as seen here . Key factors to watch: The four-hour chart z-score is -2.4 (daily z-score is -2.57). This suggests that prices are stretched and a score +/- 2 makes a great contrarian indicator. Intraday RSI and Stochastic are both suggesting oversold conditions. Multiple EMA bearish convergence, currently a 50/200 EMA bearish crossover is probable. MacroView expects to see demand between $1,215/20. It's important to keep and eye on the short end of the yield curve. With a relatively strong negative correlation with the two and five year yield maturity, if those continue to rise, we could see more pressure on the yellow metal. For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us. Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
FX:XAUUSD
by MacroView_Research
1
DUSTWhose buying NUGT? I think that gold and miners are very over extended would you buy NUGT now? It could make you the guy holding the bag when it opens 20% down. Its just too late in the cycle to buy NUGT here. I'll wait for a pullback to get in. Buy DUST? Not sure I would do that any time soon. Too hard to tell. If you listen to others shorting a baby bull is a big mistake. Just looking at the chart of DUST. Look at the oversold condition, look at the volume increase. Big buying volume Today. Look at the bounces when %R gets way oversold (blue boxes). Strictly from the chart I would say its getting time to buy. I just won't
AMEX:DUST
by bhowe
Gold Miners Could Pullback Before Resumption of Trend.Gold prices have been volatile, flucuating between $1,275 and $1,220 as markets remain indecisive on what stance to take: is the Federal Reserve going to continue hiking assuming the economy will "gradually improve," or with traders continue to look for safer locations to place there cash? According to recent capital flow data, the GLD has seen redemption as market participants choose to overlook the weakening global economy and its implications. Nevertheless, with inflows into risk ETFs like SPY and HYG, gold miners could see their shares pull back from this historic gold run. Technically, after GDX broke out of a longer-term downtrend, price action began to oscillate within a narrow ascending channel. Prices are likely to pullback to channel and price action support of $19.80, while a confirmed break (or daily close below support), miners could fall to $18.85 and, potentially, $17.85 - also nearing the 50-day EMA. However, if the popular mining ETFs can remain above support, price action could challenge $21.88 and $23.03. Overall price action and trend momentum still remain rather supportive to the upside. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
AMEX:GDX
by CommoditiesTrader
THE WEEK AHEAD -- "LESS THAN SEXY" FOR PREMIUM SELLINGWith the VIX finishing the week out at 16.66, next week is setting itself up to be a less than sexy week for premium selling, particularly in broader market instruments like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA. Moving to other sectors, the Brazil ETF, EWZ continues to be hot premium selling wise, with an implied volatility rank of 72. A couple of issues in the oil and gas space follow closely behind in the 70+ club (UNG (implied vol rank 72); RIG (71)); with several gold plays remaining in the 60s (GDXJ, GDX, GG). From there, volatility in individual underlyings and/or ETF's slips off somewhat dramatically, with only a few in the 50-60 range (X at 57; ORCL, 57 (one of this season's last earnings plays); CAT, 55 (earnings afterglo vol); and GLD, 52; with the remainder of most highly liquid, options playable issues slipping below 50 thereafter. Given the fact that I'm in a gold play, in EWZ, and have exposure to oil, I don't see myself putting on a heckuvalot of new trades next week. That's not all bad; these little volatility lulls make for a good time to do housekeeping on the various messes I created during the last volatility wave, clean up the earnings plays that didn't work out this past season, and/or dry out powder for the next volatility spike or whatever comes next ... . Naturally, should VIX spike to plus 25, I'll be right back in it with some new plays to take advantage of that. In the meantime, a cleaning of my trading "garage"/"basement"/"backyard" is overdue. It ain't sexy, but it's gotta be done some time.
CBOE:VIX
by NaughtyPines
Gold Intraday TechnicalsGold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months. After gold volatility hit multi-year highs, it is beginning to moderate a bit. I expect it to remain elevated: Technically, gold downside may remain limited with minor trend and price support at $1,205 and dynamic support at the 72-4H EMA nearing $1,198. Deeper support levels are seen at $1,190 and $1,177. Volume has tapered off since the Feb. 11 high, but positive bars still remain on top. Near-term resistance can be seen at $1,214, while stronger resistance is $1,220. If gold can retake these levels, price action would challenge the recent downtrend from the recent high. At that point, bulls can look toward $1,240. What has been beneficial is that gold has been able to work off its highly overbought level while still remaining about key support. This Friday, traders are anticipating the US preliminary GDP print. Consensus is at a nauseating .4 percent, following Q4 .7 percent that is likely to be revised lower. Even if the prelim data meets consensus, it would be over two percent lower than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. Not only is it ironic that the Federal Reserve's first rate high in seven years was in a corporate profits recession and sub-one percent growth, but it also could have been done going into a recession. Way to go, Janet! Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
FX:XAUUSD
by CommoditiesTrader
Gold Miners Run Up to Key ResistanceGold mining stocks have been trending higher, along with the overall U.S. equity market, of late. The recent support in gold prices allowed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) a strong close last week, pushing 15 percent off the November 18 low. Gold mining stocks really get a pass from traders, and it is still early to determine whether the move will last or not. And, this could depend largely on whether or not the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy for the first time since 2006. If the Fed does hike rates, gold prices could suffer. Currently, GDX has been able to close around the 50 percent Fib. retracement on the October 15 high. The daily candle closed near the top of its range on strong volume. The ADX is ticking upwards with a concurrent upward movement in + DMI, and this can garner stronger upside potential. Conversely, the GDX could see resistance at the 50 percent Fib. level, which also coincides with trend resistance (broken support). A reversal at current levels could send the mining ETF $14.20/00, while deeper price support lies at $13.38. Further upside momentum would cause the GDX to test the larger, downside trend line between $15.50 and $15.75. If the Fed fails to hike rates in a mere week, the GDX will retest the 200-daily EMA. Stock pickers could find undervalued gems in the mining space. Meera Shawn, Market Realist, points out that some miners have down quite well this year: Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), up 11.2 percent; Centerra Gold (CG), up 31.2 percent and Alacer Gold (ASR), up 8.4 percent versus a 23 percent decline in GDX as a whole. It is important when choosing commodity producers to look for strong balance sheets and low operation costs. This helps producers whether pricing declines Please follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com
AMEX:GDX
by CommoditiesTrader
1
Gold Surprises as Dollar Gets Monkey-Hammered LowerIn " Gold Leaps Higher as Worries Mount ," I briefly pointed out how those very same institutions that championed quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve are now coming out to proclaim quantitative easing added no substantial benefit to the real economy . Gold was pushed lower on the assumption that central banking policy would all pan out and that the U.S. would finally achieve escape velocity; but the exact opposite is occurring. Despite the near 12 to 16 months of absolutely horrendous, even recessionary data, market participants believed that if the Fed began to tighten monetary policy then the economy must be alright. Central bankers,misguided by classroom academics and abhorrent to real world economic dynamics, believe that if you tinker with interest rates that somehow inflation will magically begin to rise. Not so because it is real, meaningful growth that produces inflation; and it is more evident now that the these policies do not produce meaningful growth. I mapped out the dollar's downward trajectory, which was largely based on the floundering economy and the inability for the Fed to take action that will pop asset inflation. I still believe this is based on the above factors and that the dollar will likely gather strength as the US slips into deflation. Traders and CNBC pundits think that if deflation takes hold then gold will surely decline into the abyss. And just like their "lower gas prices equal booming consumer spending" myth, gold falling off a cliff during deflation is just as preposterous. Gold is unique in that if can act like an insurance policy against both sides of tail risk (inflation and deflation). It is well-known that gold had a massive bull run when stagflation took hold of the US during the 1970s. Inflation ran amok. However, nobody mentions that gold tripled, in inflation-adjusted dollar terms, during the early 1930s (the Great Depression) prior to President Roosevelt outlawing the private ownership of gold. As I wrote last April: " There is an assumption that the dollar and gold’s performance is strictly inverse of one another, but that is not so. The WGC (World Gold Council) indicates that between early 2014 and March 20, 2015, the dollar has gained over 20 percent while gold only fell 1.2 percent. Historically, gold prices more than double on a weak dollar than it falls on a stronger dollar. Thus, a stronger dollar is not indicative of massive gold depreciation. When the dollar declines, gold has appreciated 14.9 percent. Yet, when the dollar strengthens, gold has only fallen by 6.5 percent, according to the WGC. " If you look at this chart, you will notice one thing: gold sure looks to trend with the SPX. There is an argument that this due to simple asset inflation. Notice the massive divergence began when gold began to top in 2011. The divergence is what I call the "perception" gap. I expect that divergence to close. It's no secret that I was right about the volatility of 2015, along with other key macro trends. I believe by the end of 2016 and 2017 is when the real fireworks begin. Gold's recent move has been huge, and, of course, there will be profit taking. But those who follow me know that the underlying fundamentals for gold has been strengthening for some time. (Note: the gold chart is the same I used in the above mentioned gold idea, but the minor uptrend (along with new resistance) were added). Please follow me @lemieux_26 and check out my other ideas, which have links to previous writings.
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
11
GG broken out of retracment box, Is it still bullish?With the gold miners stocks tend to have a very volatile behavior. They correlate with the equities market as well as physical gold. Hence they tend to gap up and down. That's just its personality. Looking at the long term view, it still looks bullish and the inverse head and shoulder is still intact. Possible morning star reversal forming if it if gaps up tomorrow. (Other miners like GDX, SLW also have the same reversal pattern and have respected the retracement levels). For the miners to be bullish from this point onwards, the equities market and physical gold has to become bullish.( or physical gold has to be more bullish that the equities market, if the recent selling and market correction is to persist. Ignore intra-day volatility and focus on the long term view. Swing/ position trading
GLong
by aravindran1