Easter eggs likely to get expensive as cocoa trades at a 46-yearCocoa was the best performing commodity in 2023, recording a price increase of 64%1. Cocoa prices have continued to rally in 2024 crossing the threshold of US$5000 Metric Ton (MT) on 2 February 2024. The last time cocoa prices rose to this magnitude was in 1977 when it reached US$5379MT. A similar situation prevailed back then, adverse weather conditions led to production scarcities in major cocoa production countries including Ghana and Ivory Coast.
Current crop conditions remain unfavourable in key cocoa growing regions
Weather conditions in Africa have been unfavourable particularly in the Ivory coast and Ghana. This matters as the cocoa producing belt of West Africa is responsible for generating over 80% of the total global output. Ghana is the second biggest producer in the world. Moisture levels have been below average, and more trees have been affected by the Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV). Main crop cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast had reached 951,710 tonnes by 21 January since the start of the season on 1 October, down 33% from the same period last season. The cocoa harvest is already falling well behind the prior year’s level. Added to that, the key West African Cocoa growing region is facing dry Harmattan winds which could destroy the cocoa pods growing for the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop in April.
Ivory Coast halts forward sales of cocoa
Ivory coast has suspended forward sales of cocoa beans for the 2024/25 season amid uncertainty about the production volumes. The country has seen its cocoa production falling this year due to adverse weather and diseases damaging the crop. Owing to which the country doesn’t want to oversell the 2024/25 crop until the production estimates are available. Buyers typically utilise forward sales to secure longer-term supplies. As Ivory Coast suspends forward sales, the absence of forward buying is likely to spur spot purchases in the near term. Cocoa prices in January itself have risen 13%2, on strong buying activity in the physical market.
The front end of cocoa futures curve remains in backwardation, yielding a positive implied roll yield of 3.2% indicating near term tightness in supply.
Bearish grinding data fails to arrest cocoa’s price rally
Concerns started to surface that demand growth for cocoa will be impacted by higher cocoa prices. This was confirmed by the Q4 2023 data on cocoa processing which showed the grind number for North America was down 3% yoy to 103,971MT, Europe declined 2.5% yoy to 350,739MT while Asia saw the biggest decline at 8.55% to 211,202MT.3 The lower grind data is likely to have reduced the deficit on the global cocoa market from 350,000MT to 300,000MT for the 2023/24 crop year. However, expectations of lower grinding data was being anticipated by the market owing to higher cocoa prices.
Amidst the current backdrop, the cocoa market is likely to face a supply deficit in the current crop year for the third successive year. The extension of the current price rally remains dependent on development of the mid-crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana and the likely impact of the CSSV. Net speculative positioning in cocoa futures is more than 1-standard deviation (stdv) above the five-year average underscoring bullish sentiment towards cocoa.
Sources
1 Source: Bloomberg Cocoa Futures price performance from 31 December 2022 to 29 December 2023
2 Source: Bloomberg Cocoa Futures price performance from 3 January 2024 to 31 January 2024
3 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2024
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Ghana
Asante Gold Corporation - D1 - Dec 2021Asante Gold Corporation - D1 - Dec 2021
Bibiani Gold Mine Operations Update
Asante is preparing a plan to deliver a mine that can produce approximately 190,000 ounces of gold at Bibiani in its first 12 months of operation and circa 240,000 ounces every year thereafter for a minimum of 6 years. Tenders have been invited for the selection of a Mining Contractor. We anticipate mobilization of the Mining Contractor to proceed in Q1 2022.
Newcore GOLD LTD - Ghana explorer - H4Newcore Gold is advancing its Enchi Gold Project located in Ghana, Africa’s largest gold producer (1). The Project currently hosts an Inferred Mineral Resource of 1.41 million ounces of gold at 0.62 g/t (2). Newcore Gold offers investors a unique combination of top-tier leadership, who are aligned with shareholders through their 27% equity ownership, and prime district scale exploration opportunities. Enchi’s 216 km2 land package covers 40 kilometres of Ghana’s prolific Bibiani Shear Zone, a gold belt which hosts several 5 million-ounce gold deposits, including Kinross’ Chirano mine 50 kilometers to the north. Newcore’s vision is to build a responsive, creative and powerful gold enterprise that maximizes returns for shareholders.
PELANGIO EXPLORATION - H4 -Nov 20211200 Meter Drill Program Underway At Pelangio's Dome West Project, Timmins, Ontario
Highlights:
Deep exploration test of previously unexplored Vipond stratigraphy which hosts a substantial portion of the gold mineralization at the Dome Mine and Paymaster Mine; Vipond stratigraphy crosses the Dome West property boundary from the Paymaster at the 1000-foot (304.8 meter ("m") level)
Historical data from underground drill intercepts grading 21.6 g/t gold over 1.82m and 59.6 g/t gold over 1.98 m from the adjoining Paymaster Mine hosted within a feldspar porphyritic intrusive and a felsic fragmental volcanic respectively to the east boundary of the Dome West property.
Information to date suggests the gold bearing feldspar porphyry intrusive and felsic fragmental dip and strike respectively on to Pelangio's property.
Asante Gold Corporation - 2021 - H4Asante Gold Corporation (CSE:ASE/ FRANKFURT:1A9/U.S.OTC:ASGOF)
About Asante Gold Corporation
Asante has announced plans to co-list its shares on the Ghana Stock Exchange, and is sourcing funding to develop its Kubi Gold Mine project to production. Asante is also exploring its’ Keyhole Project, Fahiakoba and Betenase concessions/options for new discoveries, all adjoining or along strike of major gold mines near the centre of Ghana’s Golden Triangle.
report that it has received notice from the Minerals Commission of Ghana that eight highly prospective concessions covering approximately 314 km2 have been recommended for transfer to Asante.
These licenses are comprised of the Diaso (104.1km2), Juabo (59.2 km2), Manhia (18.69km2), Dunkwa Gyimigya (32.72km2), Gyimigya (5.52km2), Agyaka Manso (40.0km2), Amuabaka (28.86km2) and Nkronua-Atifi (24.97km2) prospecting licenses (PL’s). All licenses are being acquired, on an as issued by the Minerals Commission basis, from Goknet Mining Company Limited (the “Vendor”) pursuant to the terms of agreement with Goknet dated December 28, 2016.
Newcore GOLD LTD - Ghana explorer - DailyNewcore GOLD LTD - Ghana explorer - Daily
last news:
that effective Monday, August 10th, 2020, the Company’s common shares will commence trading on the TSX Venture Exchange under the Company's new name, Newcore Gold Ltd. (“Newcore”) and its new trading symbol "NCAU". Newcore will have 79.9 million shares issued and outstanding with Management and Directors owning a 39% equity interest and institutional shareholders owning an approximate 20% stake.
The new name reflects a turning point and a renewed commitment to realizing the value of the Company’s 100% owned Enchi Project by advancing the current 1.1 million ounce inferred1 gold resource (37.4 million tonnes grading 0.90 g/t Au) located in Ghana, Africa’s largest gold producer. Newcore Gold offers investors a unique combination of top-tier leadership, who are aligned with shareholders through their 39% ownership, and prime district scale exploration opportunities. Enchi’s 216 square kilometre land package covers 40 kilometres of Ghana’s prolific Bibiani Shear Zone, a gold belt which hosts several 5 million-ounce gold deposits, including Kinross’ Chirano mine 50 kilometers to the north. Newcore’s vision is to build a responsive, creative and powerful gold enterprise that maximizes returns for shareholders.
HIGH PROBABILITY 80 PIP DROPMULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
M60
A Double top chart formation clearly formed
Noticeable upward channel break out
RSI and MACD Divergent at the tops of the formation
M240
A broader view with clearer pic showing agreement either way; Double top , Channel breakeout.
D1
Shows an agreeing trend continuation trade after retracement to Moving average trend line .
The trend line has been respected for so long that it is almost impossible it will fail this time round
as no major news data in immediate sight.
Happy trading. lets see how it unfolds. will update after trade is validated/invalidated