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Ghostsquawk

A Lift for Stocks?Stocks are feeling out the lower bound of the range they have been establishing for the better part of this month. On the larger scale, they have been ranging in general, waiting for clarification on a number of issues, including the US election. It is likely they will continue to find support in the 3400's unless something major happens. The Kovach OBV is pretty bearish, so be careful if you are looking for a long position. Currently, stocks are sitting at 3427, which is a fairly strong level. We may catch a lift here if risk on sentiment pervades into the open.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Stalling for the MomentStocks are currently in a small uptrend, but will face resistance from 3460. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, though it has tapered up ever so gently to reflect the lift in stocks. Unless we see some serious momentum here, stocks are likely to continue to range. The S&P will face some serious resistance at 3500, a technical and psychological level. The bond market has registered a serious risk on sentiment yesterday, though currently ghost squawk AI is registering neutral risk sentiment this morning. This suggests a stuttering at opening with no clear direction until more information comes out about the stimulus package or the propaganda outlets give their take on the debates. Keep your eye on the levels in the chart for some potential trades off the levels.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Bitcoin is Back!Bitcoin has broken out yet again. It is definitely back in bull mode because it has reached the price targets established by our Fibonacci extension levels. Additionally, it appears to be forming a 'dragon head' pattern, a pattern we teach in our courses. This is a very bullish pattern, characterized by extreme growth, followed by some volatility after a pullback. You can use this opportunity to load up, or wait for it to dip further. It is likely to continue to range here, worst case scenario. The Kovach OBV is the most bullish its ever been, indicating there is some serious capital flowing into BTC.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Oil Struggling with HighsOil peaked up past the 41.29 level for a brief moment, before returning back to the range it has been holding all week. Oil has been making higher highs and lower lows, a tell-tale sign of a bull rally. Also the Kovach OBV has been quite bullish. However, it is having trouble breaking higher levels. the 41.69 proved quite difficult and it got smacked down from this level easily. Hence this rally seems quite weak by comparison with other oil rallies so dont get caught up in fomo. A 200 tick squeeze is not uncommon for this product and we have not seen that recently. Note that this could mean that oil is coiling up for a breakout, as the lack of volatility suggests a consolidation pattern. Longer term, it looks like we have a giant bull wedge forming.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Bitcoin Breaks Out after Fed Nod to CryptosBitcoin broke out rather significantly yesterday, off news that Jerome Powell, the Federal reserve chair, mentioned that the Fed is looking into a 'digital dollar'. This came as an extreme surprise to many, and yet another conformation that cryptos are here to stay. We have been skeptical of bitcoin since it crashed in 2018. Low liquidity and the pervasive volatility from whales did not make it a clement investment environment. But now, liquidity and volume are coming back, and we are getting increasing support from central banks, the most powerful authority in finance. So we are back to buy on dip mode. Breaking $11.5K was an extremely significant move. The Kovach OBV has registered this move with a huge spike.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
2
Bull Wedge in GoldGold has tested 1917 a third time. It's been making higher highs, suggesting that it may be trying to form a bull wedge. It may try to test 1905 again before breaking out, but it is looking like its coiling up for a breakout. If not, expect momentum around 1917 at the open. Gold will face resistance at 1925 and 1937. The latter level is a relative high, unlikely to be broken easily. The Kovach OBV is not quite convinced. It is still fairly flat, but considering the massive selloff in gold on the 13th, it is reasonable for some chart skew.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Anticipating Retail SalesStocks caught a lift at the 0.500 Fibonacci exactly as we said they would. Hopefully some of you took advantage of this trade. Currently, they are facing resistance by a collection of levels aroudn the 0.786 Fibonacci level near the technically and psychologically significant 3500 level. This is likely to continue to provide resistance so watch for a small rejection before the S&P is able to punch through. Consider buying back at the levels below. It is unlikely we will have any significant moves in stocks today, since it is Friday, but retail sales at 8:30 AM EST could move it if the numbers are significant. The downside has been priced in already in virtually all macro data indicators. The surprise would be a really good beat to the upside. Otherwise, expect stocks to establish a range for a bit. The Kovach OBV suggests lackluster bull momentum.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Retraced... As PredictedAs anticipate stocks retraced to the .500 Fibonacci level! This is something we have been calling out in the daily briefings for two days now. We need to keep our eye on Ghostsquawk AI to determine if the risk sentiment is risk on or risk off today. This is a make-or-break level for stocks. If they catch support here, we could see another rally, otherwise we may retrace this entire move. The Kovach OBV is looking very bearish but the Kovach Chande is picking up, suggesting a burst of momentum may be in store.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Resistance in StonksStocks have wavered the past two days, potentially giving us the corrective phase we were anticipating. The Kovach OBV was very meager throughout this rally. It has declined precipitously starting at the beginning of that little corrective phase. The technical and psychological level of 3500 will provide support, but we still anticipate a bigger dip before any serious bull momentum comes through. We still think at least the 50% fibonacci level is reasonable. We are still confident that stocks will appreciate long term, however. But it is difficult to justify new highs until after the election.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Dollar Faces HeadwindsThe US dollar is again hanging out at lows, however it gradually seems to be picking up steam. It is really trying to contend with 93.20. It has breached this level multiple times, but can't seem to build the steam to catch a breakout. If it does, 93.31, will be the next level of resistance, which is an intersection of the trendline forming the bear wedge from which it broke. The dollar seems to be facing a lot of technical headwinds, so it is more likely to range at current levels, if not test lows again.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Stocks Likely to RangeThe S&P keeps sailing up to higher highs. We are currently encountering some areas of resistance beginning at 3484. This rally does not seem to strong compared with the Kovach OBV. Thus it is likely to see a pullback really soon. We have about another 100 points before we will see new highs, and there are plenty of levels of resistance in between. It is unlikely that stocks will gun for higher highs before the election. They are much more likely to continue to feel out the range they've been establishing. The Kovach OBV does not have a definitive direction overall, confirming this hypothesis.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Magic HigherWe anticipated a bit of a squeeze first, but stonks go up. At this point, we should see a correction to lower levels before they continue their ascent, but we live in a clown world with inflated values fueled by fed magic. The Kovach OBV has not grown commensurately, so it would be unwise to jump in at the top of this rally. Wait for the S&P to pull back, however hard this may be. The 3400 level seems like a great entry point. For now, watch 3450 and 3484, where it is currently hovering.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Stocks Face Bumpy RoadStocks have been edging up. If you recall, yesterday we said it was likely that they would get squeezed down to those three support levels identified, beginning at 3397, before making a run for higher levels. That is exactly what happened, albeit very quickly. If you set some limit entries here, your patience would have paid off. Now the S&P has made new relative highs, but it seems to be trekking very carefully. The Kovach OBV is rather oscillatory. In fact, it appears to have peaked, which suggests another correction. We believe stocks are due for a correction back to 3200's, before they will make new highs. Although we can't say when this will happen, consider this a buying opportunity when it does. For today, watch 3450, a technical and psychological level. It is likely to test this level a few times beforehand, even if it can break this level to the upside.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
2
Stocks Not out of the Woods Yetstocks faced a massive selloff yesterday, and dipped down to what we are forced to recognize as a new level at 3343. They have recovered slightly since. Stocks are still not out of the woods yet. The 'rally' we saw previously was paltry as measured by the Kovach OBV. The S&P needs to break 3427 to be solidly bullish. Currently, it would seem that it will take a Herculean attempt just to break through current levels. We are still bullish of stocks, but watch for another dip. We appear to be in an Elliott Wave sideways correction, so it is likely we will test lower levels, at 3300's or even below. It is possible to even test 3200's before a breakout.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Stonks Back?Stocks have broken higher on extremely risk on news. This is a great example of NOT trading a head and shoulders pattern preemptively . What was supposed to be the right shoulder is now a higher high, and a bullish sign. On a broader scale this is likely an Elliott Wave sideways corrective pattern, which still has a ways to go before breaking highs. Currently, it looks like we are set to break higher, however watch for a short squeeze. The Kovach OBV has rounded off, and the Kovach Chande has dropped suggesting this could happen soon. Note there are three levels of support underneath the current price. In particular, 3356 would be a healthy dip.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Head and Shoulders in Stocks?Stocks look like they are forming the second shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. I have resisted drawing this, lest someone be tempted to trade the second shoulder preemptively. You should avoid this temptation, because as I emphasize in my classes, if we can break the high that forms the head, this is a bullish sign since we are making higher highs. The Kovach OBV is edging up, so we may break out. If so, the next significant level is 3427, which will provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
2
What to Expect on NonFarm FridayStocks got smacked down to relative lows. We may be forming the first shoulder and head of a head and shoulders pattern. Watch 3396. If the S&P can't break this high, then we will have our second shoulder. The neckline will be solidly established at 3308. The Kovach OBV is trending down, so we may not even see this H&S form before a breakdown. We do have several levels of support before that at 3293 and 3279. There are several more before 3200, which is a very strong technical and psychological number. Nonfarm payrolls today will play a huge roll in whether the S&P can keep current levels or dive further.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Best Trading Ideas for StonksStocks are edging up, but are having some difficulty at the technical level of 3396. After this level we have a vacuum zone up to 3427. There is very little momentum to this rally we have been seeing over the past two days, as measured by the Kovach OBV. Thus, it is likely to see another dip before stocks return to bull mode, solidly. In fact, we probably won't get a significant rally until after the election. Even if stocks continue to rally today, we are still in a sideways corrective phase, so watch for some good dips to buy for the long term. For the short term watch the levels.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Best Ideas for Trading OilOil broke down from our bull wedge pattern. This is fairly common, and these days bull wedge patterns are only slightly more probable to break to the upside than the downside, especially with something so precarious as oil. It dropped the full extent of the Fibonacci retracement levels, finally catching support at $38.89. It appears we are forming a small bear wedge pattern at current levels. Watch out because there is a vacuum zone below to a POC at $37.11 and then $36.14. If oil catches a lift, watch for resistance at the Fibonacci levels above.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Bull Wedge Forming in Oil?Oil is still holding a 200 tick range. The lows are picking up which suggests it may be forming a bull wedge pattern. The Kovach OBV is gradually picking up suggesting that this could make a great breakout trade. 40.87 is the level to watch for a breakout. There are a few levels to watch after that, which will provide resistance. But mainly the relative high at 41.73. If we are wrong, expect for oil to retrace down to feel out the range again. It will likely test 38.96 again.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Bull or Bear, this is the Best Trading Idea for StocksStocks are looking pretty bearish over the past week or two. They have pierced through many psychological, technical, and Fibonacci levels. It looks like the S&P is currently contending with the psychological and technical level of 3200. This is a significant level and whether you are a bull or a bear, keep your eye on it. The bulls can expect a bounce off this level if stocks test it again. The bears can expect selling momentum to punch through. It is difficult to forecast what stocks will do at this point, since the S&P keeps testing and making new relative lows.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1