Oil broke down from our bull wedge pattern. This is fairly common, and these days bull wedge patterns are only slightly more probable to break to the upside than the downside, especially with something so precarious as oil. It dropped the full extent of the Fibonacci retracement levels, finally catching support at $38.89. It appears we are forming a small bear...
Oil is still holding a 200 tick range. The lows are picking up which suggests it may be forming a bull wedge pattern. The Kovach OBV is gradually picking up suggesting that this could make a great breakout trade. 40.87 is the level to watch for a breakout. There are a few levels to watch after that, which will provide resistance. But mainly the relative high...
Stocks are looking pretty bearish over the past week or two. They have pierced through many psychological, technical, and Fibonacci levels. It looks like the S&P is currently contending with the psychological and technical level of 3200. This is a significant level and whether you are a bull or a bear, keep your eye on it. The bulls can expect a bounce off...
Stocks have declined to new relative lows in a selloff yesterday. The Kovach OBV is gradually declining confirming the trend. We are at a critical level here at 3242. There is a vacuum zone down to the technical and psychological level of 3200. If we can't get a lift here, we will likely test 3200.
The US dollar has broken through the 94 handle, which is a huge victory. It was struggling with the 92-93 range for months. This may confirm a bullish turn for the DXY, but it must hold this range which it was not able to do previously. We are in the middle of a big vacuum zone caused when the dollar plummeted back in July. The next levels are 94.47 and 94.78....
Stocks retraced, though not at the level we thought they would. We anticipated they would catch support at 3264 but it looks like they found support two technical levels lower at 3241. This is why it is important to keep narrow stops and hunt the best entry price. You can be right about a trade but just get the wrong price. It is difficult to say what stocks...
The S&P has dipped again to make new relative lows at 3262. It has extended past our Elliott Wave at point C, which suggests that the corrective phase is not done yet. We are still in bull mode owing to the massive V-shaped recovery we did see after the Coronapocalypse. This burst of bear momentum has formed an ABC wave which may be part of the overall...
Stocks have been holding a very narrow range from 3310 to 3427 for several days. This suggests that the S&P is in a sideways corrective phase, and gearing up for a breakout either way. The Kovach OBV has been extremely flat throughout this period, which is yet another signal that momentum should come through soon. Stocks can only hold this narrow range for so...
Stocks took a dive after the FOMC meeting. Apparently, they did not hear the magic words about stimulus that they were expecting. We are seeing good support around 3329. The S&P is bound to range at some point. This selloff was nowhere near the carnage we saw from massive corrections in recent history. It is still safe to say that stocks are likely to range...
Stocks are drifting upward, but this is typical in the presence of a vacuum zone. It is rare to see any significant moves before an FOMC event unless something got leaked. The rates and forward guidance should be priced in already. As we discussed before the S&P is likely to remain bound by 3427, at least before the event. The Kovach OBV is trekking up but at...
The US dollar has receded again, and we warned you about the issues it may have at highs. We explicitly called your attention to the fact that breaking the upper 93 handle would confirm bullishness and it does not appear that the dollar is ready for this yet. That being said, 92.72 will provide support, which we are nearing at this point. Watch this level...
Stocks are stuck in a sideways corrective pattern and are likely to range before the Fed event. The S&P is likely to remain rangebound between 3300 and 3427, and highly likely to remain in the 3300 handle. The Kovach OBV has flatlined and does not show any evidence of tapering up or down. Additionally, the Kovach Chande is very tepid as well, making very slight...
After plummeting about $7, oil is maintaining the range along with other assets as it finds footing in this new territory. We have very good alignment between our Fibonacci levels and other technical levels. We can therefore be confident in the areas of strong support and resistance. Currently, oil is stuck between $36.18, the lower anchor of the Fibonacci...
The US dollar has retraced slightly since its breakout over the past few trading days. It has made a run for the upper 93 handle, but still can't quite seem to break 93.83, the level we are eyeing to break this range held for weeks. In fact, it has seemed to reject these levels, and retraced back to the low 93 handle, where it is currently finding support. This...
Stocks look like they have caught support after the huge sell off afflicting tech stocks in particular. Regardless of what this may look like in the near term, if you zoom out to view the S&P on a grander scale, back to June, you will see that this is but a healthy corrective wave in a 5-3 Elliott Wave beginning June 10 or so. We should expect stocks to bounce...
Stocks have gotten battered recently, smashed over 200 points from all time highs. It is difficult to say if they have bottomed out, but it looks like we will see another wave of selling towards the open. The level 3375 seems like it will provide good support. It seems like this would be a good point to try to enter a long trade. It would also constitute a...
Oil is forming an inverse head and shoulders, after a huge selloff which finally broke the range it had been establishing over the past week. That range was unusually low for oil and we anticipated a breakout at some point regardless. In a previous briefing we alerted you as to the psychologically significant $40 level. The head of this this inverse H&S came...
Bitcoin may be ready for a long position. It took quite a hit, but is finding support. Both Kovach Indicators are solidly bearish, registering the smack down but the Chande, being an oscillator, is starting to curve up suggesting some support and perhaps a retracement. There is a green triangle on the Kovach Reversals Indicator which supports this.