GJ Short Position My chart analysis for GJ on Friday probably not a trade for this week however if it does setup nice and my alerts trigger and I like the structure I will enter and hold over the weekend.
A 78.60% retracement will be a nice entry point and this area is also housing a nice liquidity pool and will be the 100% fill of the IPA. The Pound is also weakening at the moment due to the new Covid varient and Lockdown rumours.
Gj
GBPJPY - Bearish BiasPrice continued to respect the downtrend line created after GJ had made a new high, and dropped 200pips on Thursday 4th November following the BOE hold of interest rates. Price closed the week at a strong previous resistance level
Although my overall bias is bearish I am expecting price to either
1. Retrace UP to the downtrend line and reject it in between the 50 - 61.8 Fb level and continue down OR
2. Range and break below support at 153 and continue to drop to the next support level around 151
GJ More Growth?After a sharp drop, GJ has started an upside move and currently it is bouncing on the ascending trend line.
There is a resistance zone around 153.735 which has been tested by price for several times:
If price can close a bullish candle above this level, we can expect more rise for GBPJPY, first to 154.00, and in the case of an upside breakout on 154, the next target would be around 154.280
On the other hand, if price can’t be fixed above the resistance zone and got rejected, we should wait for the trend line’s breakout and the support zone at 153.100 to enter short.
GBPJPY in a crucial areaAs you can see from the title, GJ is in a very crucial area. GJ has rejected the D/Pivot level, retested has fallen down to the 4H/Pivot level. If buyers step in here, we can see them re-test and potentially break through the D/Pivot level, marking the end of the corrective wave and the start of an implusive wave out.
On the other hand, if buyers fail to step in and we lose the 4H/Pivot level, we can see price fall all the way to D/S2. In which case my take profits will be 4H S1, S2, & S3.
If you like this update, please comment and/or like. Stay tune for further updates.
GBPJPY-POTENTIAL SHORT IDEAGJ has failed to reclaim Daily Pivot level and is showing signs of reversal on 1H TF. I will be looking for retest and reject of red zone to take short position (1-2 RRR). RSI is also in a crucial overbought area.
On the other hand, if GJ can reclaim Daily Pivot Level, I will be looking for support to form in that zone to take long position.
GJ Different ScenariosAs you can see in the 4H chart, GBPJPY was in a sharp downtrend and after dropping significantly, price started to rise and broke the blue key resistance zone and fixed above it.
We are still not sure if price has started a new uptrend or it is just in a correction phase and willing to drop again.
The Blue area which is between 153.550 - 153.750 is an important zone for us:
If price can’t break this zone to the downside and gets rejected from it, we should wait for the red resistance level at 154.200 to be broken out and price closes a bullish confirmation candle above this level, to expect a growth first to the next major high at 154.700, and in the case of an upside breakout on this level, the next long-term target would be around 155.550
On the other hand, since price was in a sharp downtrend and if we assume this uptrend as a correction, price has retraced 61.8% of the previous downside move and is ready to drop again:
If the blue area broken out to the downside and price closed a bearish confirmation candle below this zone, we can expect a fall first to 153.280, and in the case of a downside breakout on this level, the next target would be the last major low at 152.400
GBPJPY Week AheadGJ is on an uptrend on the weekly time frame within an ascending channel
On the daily timeframe - GJ is pulling back from highs and is trending down
3 Trades Ideas for GBPJPY
1. Bullish bias - If price rejects the previous resistance level @ 152.30 and past 153.30 (previous highs) then we would see a break of the downtrend structure and expect price to continue up
2. Bullish bias - If price continues down to the bottom of the ascending trend line and rejects then again we would see a break of structure (BOS) above 153.80 towards 155.30 (50% fib) or 156 (618% fib)
3. Bearish bias - If price breaks below 152.40 - 152.30 then we could see a continued downtrend especially if we see closures below. Then targets would be next support @ 151.35 then 149.95
News this week
UK jobs numbers on Tuesday @ 7am GMT - gains in employment will be bullish for the Pound
UK Inflation data on Wed morning 7am GMT - BoE upper limits are 3% for inflation, Forecasts are 3.9% which could further fuel bets of a rate hike which would be bullish for the Pound
Good Opportunity to be long on GBPJPY. GBPJPY / 1D
GBPJPY has been trading in a bullish structure in a higher time frame.
Recently, the price was pulling back heavily to test a few levels.
For the next few days, we will be looking for a long term buying opportunity
around our buying zone where we expect buyers to show up heavily
in the market.
Trade safe
Trader Leo.
GBPJPY CONSOLIDATIONGBPJPY currently in a consolidation (sideways channel), best advice is to sit this one out and let it play out. Direction of breakout can’t be predicted and is based more on fundamentals than TA. Japan has 2 news event coming up later today so let’s watch but their last few news event didn’t affect the market much either so don’t go crazy with position based off the news. Good luck!