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GLD

The Gold Odyssey - Down and then Uppish Part IIFrom the last post, I took a second look, and zoomed out a lot more. Then I found another set of reasons for the down and uppish outlook that I can share with everyone... You see, it appears that there is a set of similar technical conditions that occurred in December 2018, that also presented similarly in December 2022. From a recent double top lower high stalling consolidation range, about 7-8 months later, the technical indicators present a similar upside trigger, which includes a breakout above the 23 week EMA, that is accompanied with MACD and VolDiv crossovers. Noted similar up triangle triggers that represent underlying combination of certain technical indicator conditions. Furthermore, at the current time, it can be well expected that the price action should be checking in with the 23 week EMA before the real bullish rally launch. Now, this may take till May to form up and then launch. So heads up, watch MAy 2023 for Gold prices to rally.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
GDX coiling againIt has been a while since it would be even worth to look into GDX, and I think it is about time... still early, but good to plan ahead and see if it is working out as projected. GDX (Gold miners) mounted a good recovery but stalled on a trend line and retracement is likely to see 27, else 25. The technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) are turning bullish, but not just ripe yet. Expecting a higher low about 25-27 (red ellipse is the optimistic target; also the 62% retracement level) in early to mid January 2023. Bouncing off the 23-week EMA would be a good indicator that the projection is in line. So... being optimistic for a comeback, but until the pullback is apparent, sitting on my hands first. Happy Boxing Day!
AMEX:GDX
by Auguraltrader
Gold in a supercycleCould we be mid-way through a super-cycle in gold? Could we? Judging by the news we are seeing a slow decline in the PetroDollar, which is a fiat currency built on trust and the number of nuclear weapons. This military power is denominated in Dollars, which used to be tracked in gold. Regardless of what the Crypto fanboys call out, there is only one money, and that is Gold, everything else is currency. Are we about to see a massive surge in Gold as currency all over the world derates to make up for all the surge in prices and workers wanting take home more money? NOTE: This is a 12months line chart, it could take 5-10 years before the surge represents itself....
TVC:GOLDLong
by Macro-Traders-Strategies
Silver Breaking Out (upward). Gold/Platinum should followGold/Silver bugs - are you ready for what a lot of us have been saying for the past 5+ years. The base/bottom in metals back in 2015 was the critical base for the next big move. This upward price swing should be the next accumulation phase which will drive a speculative phase in about 3~4+ years. That speculative phase will be MASSIVE (should happen near 2027~2029). You gotta love when the world sits and waits for metals to move - then ignores the 40% rally in metals/miners in the early phase - right? Here we go.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by BradMatheny
$SLV Pullback?SLV has shot up again in the past couple of weeks. After taking a look its a bid extended from the 20,50,100 day MAs on the daily chart. Volume hasn't been anything significant and its facing a long standing trendline. Dollar has also been melting down which is a nice catalyst for SLV but eventually the dollar should find some support near term imo. I expect SLV to cool off over the next week or so and get somewhere near that orange line marked. Not an exact science but somewhere nearby. I think it will take feds actually pivoting to really send SLV into a breakout that people have been waiting years for. Just my opinion open to hearing others! Not financial advice. AMEX:SLV
AMEX:SLVShort
by EZmoney24
Gold is at resistance. Is it time to short?Hello everyone! As Pelosi is going to Taiwan, things could get ugly between China and the US, sending gold higher. However, gold is currently at key resistance, and the quadruple/quintuple bottom lower will most likely break. For a while, I've mentioned how I believe gold will go to 1650 and potentially down to 1300 before it bottoms. There are many different forces at play here, and although I think gold will go higher in the long term, it looks like it will be headed lower in the short time. Therefore my first target is the 1640 support of the Yearly S2 pivot; without that meaning, I'd want to go long there. I'd only want to go long if the price reclaims the broken quadruple bottom and bet on a short-term bounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
How high and how low can Gold go in this cycle?In my honest opinion Gold will head much much higher in the next decade, and the double top at 2070 is bound to break. In the short term it also looks fairly bullish as it has reclaimed several key support levels, along with the 200-400 DMAs and the diagonal trendline. Getting up to 1900-1920 over the next few days or weeks definitely seems possible. However in the medium term it isn't clear whether it is ready to resume higher. To me it looks more likely that Gold will get to 1600 and maybe even 1300 before getting to 3000. The quadruple bottom at 1670 looks vulnerable, as so does the triple bottom at 1450, while the 1300-1350 looks like a massive magnet. The market never retested that breakout and it could certainty revisit it before going higher. But how could gold go lower if inflation remains high? Well inflation has been high for a while now, and yet Gold is still sitting below its 2011 ATHs. Central bank balance sheets have exploded, and yet gold remains quiet. In my opinion this has to do with several things, that could range from manipulation up to a strong dollar. Central banks are cornered and not many governments are profitable enough to add gold to their balance sheets. Some will potentially be forced to sell in order to support their currencies. As energy and food go higher, bonds yields will go higher, and therefore more opportunities will arise outside of gold. Being long oil is probably a better inflation hedge than being long gold. At the same time higher inflation forces people to sell stuff in order to cover their extra costs, and that includes gold. People bought gold as insurance for a period of high inflation, and now they need to exercise that option. Finally, as bond yields go up, if the dollar also goes up, then this could seriously harm gold. If the USD appreciates too fast along with interest rates going higher, then gold could collapse along with most other assets in the case of a liquidity squeeze. In conclusion, I don't believe inflation is fully under control, I don't think we are done with QE and low rates by Central banks, however I do think that gold isn't ready for prime time yet. Gold is in a weird spot both fundamentally and technically, so I'd need to see a more bullish price action in order to be convinced that 3000 will come before 1300.
AMEX:GLD
by BitcoinMacro
GLD to stay below 150 and last chance to get outHello Golden heart people Sorry I am not bringing a good news for GOLD/GLD. The chart pattern seems to be replicating itself from 2011 - 2015. Description in the chart should be self explanatory, here are few points to make it clear. This is a monthly chart, so please do not hold me for the daily bounce. I am taking this opportunity to short at the better price. What are you doing? Moving average I have used is 34 because it is at least respecting that average, and currently it is below 34 monthly moving average and is turning down. I will change my mind only when it closes above this monthly moving average. If you know me, my monthly fib levels are in red and the price is below 23%, the minimum target is 38% which is 135 I have used Anchored VWAP since inception of GLD and now it is finally below 1 standard deviation and if mean reversion has started then the target is 125 and to capitulate it has to go below 110 One thing I have learnt is, longer trend works BUT the only condition is you should be able to ignore the losses short term I will keep updating this idea as and when there are big moves or if there are any questions. This is my opinion, I would like to know yours as well if you do not agree with this.
AMEX:GLDShort
by letslearn
2
Gold could skyrocket higher in NovemberGold and Silver could move dramatically higher after the US Fed comments and the shift in how capital seeks safety. Precious metals have been consolidating downward for months. Now, it appears the Feds comments have shifted how traders/investors view precious metals. It is very likely this shift may prompt a very big upside price move. As traders suddenly realize the undervalued metals prices have not adjusted to the global risk factors associate with a US 5% FFR (creating global economic concerns), I believe precious metals may move sharply higher (very quickly). The Fed is on a mission and may prompt a massive global contraction as excesses and risks continue to elevate. Just like in 2004~08, precious metals drifted higher until the crisis event in 2008-09. Then, after a brief contraction, metals skyrocketed more than 85% higher over 2.5 years. We may be at the start of a 150% rally in gold (or more). Stay tuned. Follow my research
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Are Precious Metals Finally Reacting To Fed Fear?Myself, like many others, continue to believe Precious Metals (#gold & #silver) are about to enter a very explosive price phase. The past 12+ months have seen Gold rally after COVID, then enter an extended decline phase as the speculative bubble distracted everyone from core value. Now that the Fed and GCBs are dancing around rate increases, higher inflation, and consumer demands, will Precious Metals shift direction and start a new up trend? Time will tell, but this recent Double-Bottom in Gold certainly looks promising. I'm still cautiously optimistic the past 10+ years of extremely easy money policies will setup a huge rally phase in Metals. Near Dec 2019, my main cycle system moved into a Depreciation cycle phase. That means we have until 2029+ for this cycle to continue to unwind. Remember that is still 6~7+ years from now. The unwinding phase will be very similar to the 2000~2009 Depreciation phase - sideways trends with extreme volatility. I expect a slow melt upward over the next 3+ years, eventually extending into a parabolic upward price trend (increasing in speed and volatility as we near 2028~29). This recent BASE ($1690) will probably turn into a very strong decades-long base/support. We've never been anywhere close to what is happening in the US/Global markets before. But I'm here to tell you the real fun start after 2026~27. Until then, the global markets are shifting in structure, attempting to find support - just like what happened near 1997~2001. Get ready for another 5+ years of big volatility and trends. Follow my research. Don't miss these huge trends.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny