Gold is about to breakout above $2k - Here we goThe Fed and US economic data will likely prompt s big move in Gold/Silver over the next 36+ months.
My read on the data is that we are starting a price cycle that is similar to 2002~2005 again.
Early bullish trending throughout 2002~05 prompted a massive 500% rally in Gold - reaching a peak in 2011.
If that happens again from the $1700 support level, we may see Gold reach levels above $11,000 by 2027~28.
This is NOT the same market condition as 2019~2022.
Follow my research
GLD
What an incredible rally in GOLD from Support - what's next?This incredible rally in Gold won't really end until prices reach levels above $2250. My target is closer to $2400 - but we'll see how things play out.
Overall, Gold moves in $350 price phases. From recent lows, the top of that $350 price phase is near $1985.
I would suspect a moderate pause/pullback after reaching the $1985 level. The low of that pause/pullback will prompt another $350 upward price phase.
If we assume the low of the pullback will be near $1900, then the upper target of the next upward price phase will be $2250+.
Eventually, as Gold shifts into a parabolic phase, those $350 price phases will increase..
A. $481
B. $525
C. $566
D. $700
As the speculative phase in precious metals continues, we'll see varying expansion/contraction phases until the peak is reached after 2027~28.
Hang tight, this is just getting started.
Follow my research.
GOLD and XRP: Fun Comparison IdeaHere we are looking at GOLDs chart structure prior to its massive 10 year run up in the 2000’s, compared to XRPs chart structure dating back to March 2020.
It’s important to note that the GOLD fractal we’re looking at is on the monthly time frame while we’re looking at XRP on the daily…
Nonetheless, the two charts have daunting similarities in structure, which I find very interesting.
While this chart is strictly just an idea, and is not intended to in any way to say that XRP will continue to follow the path that GOLD followed into the early 2000’s, I found the similarities to be very thought provoking, so I thought I’d share it with you all.
Do you think XRP is following a similar path to that of GOLD in the early 2000’s, or will XRPs chart deviate from here? Let me know in the comments!
Cheers!!
GLD short term short, long term bull trend intactGLD was in a down trend from March 22 until early November 22
Since GLD broke that trend it has turn former resistance into support with confirmation
on Jan 13 GLD broke through the next reistance zone around 175 and is now peaking at almost 180$
even though on Jan 17 and 18 GLD traded down and then came back strong on Jan 19 it still needs to come back and visit this former resistance for confirmation.
ADX over 20 indicates strong trend, here on the 1 day it is 40 with the +DI (green) in bullish spread (40 v 13)
50 day DEMA crossed the 200 day DEMA in late November
The price has gotten far above the 50 day DEMA, another clue that a short term correction is in order.
What takes gold into $2k ??With the weakness in the USD - where the DXY holds the potential to crack the consolidation lows and EURUSD looks to break the 1.0875 and 1.0750 range - married with the grind lower in US real rates (lower pane) - we’re seeing new cycle highs in gold.
A range break in the DXY would certainly be helpful in the quest to push price to $2000, which is the big target for the bulls ahead of the ATH of $2075 – given where XAU 1-week implied vols sit the market prices with about a 5% chance of a move to the big number this coming week, so one for another time and perhaps post FOMC meeting (1 Feb).
Slower US growth is gold’s friend here and a hedge against a recession means long USTs, and gold appreciation.
Are we sufficiently overbought?
We're certainly heading that way but I'd argue the elastic band hasn’t been sufficiently pulled just yet. Here we see price now 6.7% premium to the 50-day MA which is lofty as you can see below, but we can get a far higher probability of mean reversion when price holds a 10% premium to the average.
So watching USD flows in what will be a quiet week of data next week - also real rates for a move into the 2 Dec low of 1.10% - should we see both scenarios' play out then gold could push to $2k - but the risk of a pullback within the bullish trend and prior to price hitting $2k is clearly rising, although we expect drawdowns to be contained
GLD: Hit the Brakes ✋🛑Almost there! GLD should slam on the brakes and wrap up the blue wave (i). After completion, we expect the course to dip into the blue target zone between $162.26 and $155.58 to fulfill the corrective low of the blue wave (ii). Once achieved, the GLD is good to go and should rise back North.
Here comes the BIG SCARE!The return of oil.
I could explain why but its all fake so it doesn't really matter.
Here comes the clowns, to bring in the next act. Unemployed clowns....
Do you like your job? Well enjoy it while you can
Rates raise = Unemployment raise = Rates fall = Unemployment raises more = commodities fall
Lets watch unemployment raise and see if im right
My Position
60 Petrobras calls $11 Strike January 27th. Then lets roll them forward till March.
The Gold Odyssey - Down and then Uppish Part IIFrom the last post, I took a second look, and zoomed out a lot more. Then I found another set of reasons for the down and uppish outlook that I can share with everyone...
You see, it appears that there is a set of similar technical conditions that occurred in December 2018, that also presented similarly in December 2022.
From a recent double top lower high stalling consolidation range, about 7-8 months later, the technical indicators present a similar upside trigger, which includes a breakout above the 23 week EMA, that is accompanied with MACD and VolDiv crossovers. Noted similar up triangle triggers that represent underlying combination of certain technical indicator conditions.
Furthermore, at the current time, it can be well expected that the price action should be checking in with the 23 week EMA before the real bullish rally launch.
Now, this may take till May to form up and then launch. So heads up, watch MAy 2023 for Gold prices to rally.
GDX coiling againIt has been a while since it would be even worth to look into GDX, and I think it is about time... still early, but good to plan ahead and see if it is working out as projected.
GDX (Gold miners) mounted a good recovery but stalled on a trend line and retracement is likely to see 27, else 25.
The technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) are turning bullish, but not just ripe yet. Expecting a higher low about 25-27 (red ellipse is the optimistic target; also the 62% retracement level) in early to mid January 2023. Bouncing off the 23-week EMA would be a good indicator that the projection is in line.
So... being optimistic for a comeback, but until the pullback is apparent, sitting on my hands first.
Happy Boxing Day!
The Gold Odyssey - Down and then UppishGold recovered in recent weeks since November, but appears to have met resistance.
MACD and VolDiv are indicating a bullish technical backdrop, but the price action of the weekly candlesticks are indecisive in breaking out.
Expecting a retracement, and then a later bullish break out in Jan, or more likely in Feb 2023.
This one needs time to bake...
Gold in a supercycleCould we be mid-way through a super-cycle in gold? Could we?
Judging by the news we are seeing a slow decline in the PetroDollar, which is a fiat currency built on trust and the number of nuclear weapons. This military power is denominated in Dollars, which used to be tracked in gold. Regardless of what the Crypto fanboys call out, there is only one money, and that is Gold, everything else is currency.
Are we about to see a massive surge in Gold as currency all over the world derates to make up for all the surge in prices and workers wanting take home more money?
NOTE: This is a 12months line chart, it could take 5-10 years before the surge represents itself....
Silver Breaking Out (upward). Gold/Platinum should followGold/Silver bugs - are you ready for what a lot of us have been saying for the past 5+ years. The base/bottom in metals back in 2015 was the critical base for the next big move. This upward price swing should be the next accumulation phase which will drive a speculative phase in about 3~4+ years.
That speculative phase will be MASSIVE (should happen near 2027~2029).
You gotta love when the world sits and waits for metals to move - then ignores the 40% rally in metals/miners in the early phase - right?
Here we go.
GLD SPDR two bullish breakout patterns in one!W Formation has formed and the price has broken above recently.
We then have a larger Cup and Handle forming, which the price is now completing the Brim Level.
This market is correlating well with Gold and seems to be lagging the current Gold rally. This means, we can expect upside for GLD very soon.
My first target is $174.68
More upside on Gold and Gold ETF While Gold fell yesterday due to interest hike fears and China's economy.
I believe the Gold still has more upside.
Currently, looking at gold miners ETF. Believe that it might fall to support level ($26 area) and bounce back higher.
Aiming for around the $ 30 area..
However, should it break $26, I will exit my trade.