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GLD

Gold is at resistance. Is it time to short?Hello everyone! As Pelosi is going to Taiwan, things could get ugly between China and the US, sending gold higher. However, gold is currently at key resistance, and the quadruple/quintuple bottom lower will most likely break. For a while, I've mentioned how I believe gold will go to 1650 and potentially down to 1300 before it bottoms. There are many different forces at play here, and although I think gold will go higher in the long term, it looks like it will be headed lower in the short time. Therefore my first target is the 1640 support of the Yearly S2 pivot; without that meaning, I'd want to go long there. I'd only want to go long if the price reclaims the broken quadruple bottom and bet on a short-term bounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
How high and how low can Gold go in this cycle?In my honest opinion Gold will head much much higher in the next decade, and the double top at 2070 is bound to break. In the short term it also looks fairly bullish as it has reclaimed several key support levels, along with the 200-400 DMAs and the diagonal trendline. Getting up to 1900-1920 over the next few days or weeks definitely seems possible. However in the medium term it isn't clear whether it is ready to resume higher. To me it looks more likely that Gold will get to 1600 and maybe even 1300 before getting to 3000. The quadruple bottom at 1670 looks vulnerable, as so does the triple bottom at 1450, while the 1300-1350 looks like a massive magnet. The market never retested that breakout and it could certainty revisit it before going higher. But how could gold go lower if inflation remains high? Well inflation has been high for a while now, and yet Gold is still sitting below its 2011 ATHs. Central bank balance sheets have exploded, and yet gold remains quiet. In my opinion this has to do with several things, that could range from manipulation up to a strong dollar. Central banks are cornered and not many governments are profitable enough to add gold to their balance sheets. Some will potentially be forced to sell in order to support their currencies. As energy and food go higher, bonds yields will go higher, and therefore more opportunities will arise outside of gold. Being long oil is probably a better inflation hedge than being long gold. At the same time higher inflation forces people to sell stuff in order to cover their extra costs, and that includes gold. People bought gold as insurance for a period of high inflation, and now they need to exercise that option. Finally, as bond yields go up, if the dollar also goes up, then this could seriously harm gold. If the USD appreciates too fast along with interest rates going higher, then gold could collapse along with most other assets in the case of a liquidity squeeze. In conclusion, I don't believe inflation is fully under control, I don't think we are done with QE and low rates by Central banks, however I do think that gold isn't ready for prime time yet. Gold is in a weird spot both fundamentally and technically, so I'd need to see a more bullish price action in order to be convinced that 3000 will come before 1300.
AMEX:GLD
by BitcoinMacro
GLD to stay below 150 and last chance to get outHello Golden heart people Sorry I am not bringing a good news for GOLD/GLD. The chart pattern seems to be replicating itself from 2011 - 2015. Description in the chart should be self explanatory, here are few points to make it clear. This is a monthly chart, so please do not hold me for the daily bounce. I am taking this opportunity to short at the better price. What are you doing? Moving average I have used is 34 because it is at least respecting that average, and currently it is below 34 monthly moving average and is turning down. I will change my mind only when it closes above this monthly moving average. If you know me, my monthly fib levels are in red and the price is below 23%, the minimum target is 38% which is 135 I have used Anchored VWAP since inception of GLD and now it is finally below 1 standard deviation and if mean reversion has started then the target is 125 and to capitulate it has to go below 110 One thing I have learnt is, longer trend works BUT the only condition is you should be able to ignore the losses short term I will keep updating this idea as and when there are big moves or if there are any questions. This is my opinion, I would like to know yours as well if you do not agree with this.
AMEX:GLDShort
by letslearn
2
Gold could skyrocket higher in NovemberGold and Silver could move dramatically higher after the US Fed comments and the shift in how capital seeks safety. Precious metals have been consolidating downward for months. Now, it appears the Feds comments have shifted how traders/investors view precious metals. It is very likely this shift may prompt a very big upside price move. As traders suddenly realize the undervalued metals prices have not adjusted to the global risk factors associate with a US 5% FFR (creating global economic concerns), I believe precious metals may move sharply higher (very quickly). The Fed is on a mission and may prompt a massive global contraction as excesses and risks continue to elevate. Just like in 2004~08, precious metals drifted higher until the crisis event in 2008-09. Then, after a brief contraction, metals skyrocketed more than 85% higher over 2.5 years. We may be at the start of a 150% rally in gold (or more). Stay tuned. Follow my research
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Are Precious Metals Finally Reacting To Fed Fear?Myself, like many others, continue to believe Precious Metals (#gold & #silver) are about to enter a very explosive price phase. The past 12+ months have seen Gold rally after COVID, then enter an extended decline phase as the speculative bubble distracted everyone from core value. Now that the Fed and GCBs are dancing around rate increases, higher inflation, and consumer demands, will Precious Metals shift direction and start a new up trend? Time will tell, but this recent Double-Bottom in Gold certainly looks promising. I'm still cautiously optimistic the past 10+ years of extremely easy money policies will setup a huge rally phase in Metals. Near Dec 2019, my main cycle system moved into a Depreciation cycle phase. That means we have until 2029+ for this cycle to continue to unwind. Remember that is still 6~7+ years from now. The unwinding phase will be very similar to the 2000~2009 Depreciation phase - sideways trends with extreme volatility. I expect a slow melt upward over the next 3+ years, eventually extending into a parabolic upward price trend (increasing in speed and volatility as we near 2028~29). This recent BASE ($1690) will probably turn into a very strong decades-long base/support. We've never been anywhere close to what is happening in the US/Global markets before. But I'm here to tell you the real fun start after 2026~27. Until then, the global markets are shifting in structure, attempting to find support - just like what happened near 1997~2001. Get ready for another 5+ years of big volatility and trends. Follow my research. Don't miss these huge trends.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
GOLD is a BIGGER BUBBLE than the S&P500?? Look away gold bugsThis chart shows GOLD and S&P500 on the same % change axis since 1965. Based on this timescale, GOLD has had a GREATER % rise in price than the S&P 500. But hang on, isn't GOLD price supressed and is the only asset class NOT in the EVERYTHING BUBBLE? FALSE NARRATIVE!! Zoom out to this longer time scale and see that GOLD has also ascended into NOSE BLEED BUBBLE TERRITORY, its just timed its climbs different to equities. +++ It gets worse.... GOLD has painted a HUMUNGOUS double top which is now bearing down a top of the gold chart. CONCLUSION: Gold is every much as part of the everything bubble as STOCKS and REAL ESTATE. GOLD will not be a safe haven and will fall in a similar way to stonks (MASSIVELY) in the coming depression
TVC:SPXShort
by Fifty_Satoshi_
Gold is going to CRASH!! +++ Bitcoin chart proves itThis side by side comparison shows the similarity in the evolution of GOLD and BTC price. Over a longer time span gold is painting EXACTLY the same DOUBLE TOP after parabolic rise as Bitcoin has done. Gold price is up +4,600% since 1966. Compare this to the S&P500 which is up +4,300% over the same time span. Gold price has NOT been supressed, this is a false narrative. The conclusion: GOLD is every much as part of the everything bubble as Stocks and Real Estate. Expect the coming depression to burst the bubble and for Gold to continue its rhyme of the Bitcoin rise and fall
TVC:GOLDShort
by Fifty_Satoshi_
2
Gold Order Flow - Bears Rule The MarketHey traders, Yet again, the OFA script clearly show we should not be meddling with the affairs of the bears, side fully in control of the price action in the Gold market. Let the flows, identified via the formation of fractal-based structures, determine the path of least resistance. As usual, credit where is due (Bill Williams). The script simply makes it visually easier to call these trend, which otherwise would be seemingly hard to continuously identify through manual analysis. Be reminded, when applying the OFA script , it has 2 main components to study: Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude? Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:GLDEducation
by FlowState
GDX - Going Down Xtrenuously (pun intended)The gold miners ETF, GDX, just points to a very very rough time. With the interest rates escalating rapidly, the USD rising swiftly, the equity markets weakening, and gold prices crumbling... it is a perfect storm for GDX thrashing. The weekly chart had a tombstone doji the previous week as it failed the Hull EHMA, and the past week confirmed the trend reversal down. The weekly technical indicators are weak and bearish looking so not much to go on here. The daily chart shows a recent breakdown from a failed 55EMA test. and on Friday, ended with a bearish marubozu, closing near the weekly low. The technical indicators are significantly suggestive... the MACD had actually wasted a long bullish divergence and failed to mount a very decent rally. This failure would have a doubling opposing effect, and the daily MACD has actually crossed down into the bear territory. Taken together, projections set a downside target of 17, about the end of November 2022. A very tough time for GDX (unless you are short)
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
The Gold Odyssey - Gold-ing Down over the next yearsI must attribute this post to my brother who texted me earlier this week asking for my opinion of where Gold is going. I did respond with a "Down" but I felt that I should also validate it properly. And lo and behold, I noticed a major pattern formation, that would break the previous trend/pattern. Gold appears to be on a VERY CRITICAL LAST DAY of the month. It needs to close well above 1685 to save it from the pattern break(down). Previously, since 2019, I started this series of The Gold Odyssey documenting Gold's bullish journey, andI think it is about time that Gold changes trend from Bullish to Bearish. The monthly Gold futures chart is shown here with two very similar pattern breaks. Well, in about 8 hours, we will know if there is a pattern break, and a new bearish pattern truly emerges... In 2011-2013, a major Gold top formed, and in this formation a couple of characteristics formed: 1. a monthly lower high was formed; 2. a breakdown below the 55 Hull EHMA; 3. a breakdown out of the triangle formation; and 4. MACD cross down into bearish territory In 2020, Gold made a historical high, and since then, Gold did these few things: 1. a monthly lower high was formed; ✅ 2. a breakdown below the 55 Hull EHMA; ✅ 3. a breakdown out of the triangle formation; and (candle NOT YET closed, on last few hours now) 4. MACD cross down into bearish territory ✅ The patterns are uncanny and a dead ringer for further downside, projected in a similar fashion to 1275 around later 2024. Conceptually, longer term patterns are more difficult to form (or break). Notwithstanding, the Gold monthly chart appears to be suggesting that the relatively trusty Cup and Handle pattern ( about 90% success ) is broken, and a bearish phase is developing with the monthly lower low and (potentially, at this time of writing) a break down out of the triangle. In summary, the long term technical set up here is suggesting that Gold will be bearish to 1275 over the next two years. Today, it is just the beginning. Food for thought here, especially for those who had loaded up in Gold over the last couple of years... will revisit once the month, and quarter, is done.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Wednesday notes - SPX Wheat Gold DXY DAX Bonds etc.Some pre market commentary, SPX - expecting a bear trap after open, then higher. Wheat may be affected by the hurricane in Florida, Bonds hit an important fib extension, Gold looks promising if it can get over 1675 resistance, DXY also looks like it may pullback - BTC could still move to lower 18000 area before a move up (would align with one more low in equities) but it doesn't have to go down that far. Dax has broken monthly trendline, expect a retest over the coming weeks. I forgot oil - looks good for a strong bounce here, pullbacks are likely bought. OK good luck!
XETR:DAXLong
by the_sunship
2