Gold - Time To Close Out Partial Profits!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) is now back to the upper channel resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After breaking above the plsychological $2.000 level, Gold created such an incredible rally, massively outperforming stocks and even cryptocurrencies over the past couple of months. Therefore, it is quite likely that big institutions will take some profits at the current levels.
Levels to watch: $2.700, $2.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
GLD
Gold & Silver Struggling To Break Away From Consolidation PhaseI created this video to highlight why I believe Gold & Silver could stay within a very wide consolidation range until after November 7~10 as the US markets enter a SHOCK phase after the elections.
Yes, I believe Gold & Silver will ultimately rally much higher, but my weekend research suggests the US & Global markets will stay in a low liquidity phase for about 7 to 10+ days after the election and I believe THAT is the reason why Gold & Silver will appear TRAPPED in a sideways price range.
Ultimately, we'll see what happens with Gold and Silver and if my research is correct or not. I just wanted to alert traders that Gold/Silver and other metals/miners appear to be trapped in a price anomaly event over the next 10+ days that suggests metals will fall downward, trade within a sideways price range, and attempt to move out of that range after November 11.
Let's see how it plays out.
Get some.
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Gold & Silver Enter Phase #3 of the Excess Phase Peak PatternGet ready. Both Gold & Silver have moved into Phase #3 of the Excess Phase Peak Pattern - suggesting Gold & Silver will consolidate briefly before either attempting to break downward toward an ultimate low or revert higher, trying to take out the recent highs.
I estimate that Gold and Silver will break downward as fear and panic settle into the market ahead of the US elections.
If you've been following my research for the past 4+ weeks, you already know I predicted this move nearly a month ago, and now we are seeing Gold and Silver roll strongly to the downside.
What is interesting is that they both set up excess phase peak patterns. Gold set up a very quick Phase #1 & #2 (flagging) pattern, whereas Silver's #1 & #2 setup took much longer.
I believe Silver is leading the markets a bit right now throughout this Excess Phase Peak pattern.
If my research is correct, Gold and Silver will break downward over the next 4+ days to identify a substantially lower low - the Ultimate low.
After that, Gold and Silver will base/bottom and move into a very strong recovery phase.
Are you ready for market opportunities over the next 5+ years? Follow my research/videos to learn how you can capitalize on these big moves.
Get some.
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Gold vs Commodities: Monitoring Relative Strength in Hard AssetsIntroduction:
The commodity sector spans various areas, including energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals. However, focusing on the most promising areas can lead to more effective investment strategies. One key ratio to monitor is gold AMEX:GLD versus a broader commodities basket (DBC). This ratio is especially relevant for those interested in hard assets, as it highlights where strength lies in the commodity space. Currently, this ratio favors gold as the stronger performer.
Analysis:
Relative Strength: The GLD-to-DBC ratio offers critical insights into the relative performance of gold versus other commodities. Gold has been outperforming the broader commodity basket, indicating its resilience as a hard asset.
Technical Pattern: Earlier this year, the ratio broke out of a rounding bottom pattern, signaling a bullish trend in favor of gold. Even before this breakout, the trend was clear through a series of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the strength of gold relative to other commodities.
Gold’s Performance: Gold remains near its all-time highs, while other commodities continue to lag behind. This highlights gold’s resilience in the face of broader market uncertainties.
Conclusion:
Gold’s resilience compared to other commodities makes it a standout performer in the current market environment. The recent breakout in the GLD-to-DBC ratio and the continued pattern of higher highs and higher lows support the bullish case for gold. Traders focused on hard assets should monitor this ratio closely to gauge potential shifts in strength. What’s your outlook on gold versus other commodities? Share your insights below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the GLD-to-DBC ratio, the rounding bottom pattern, and the higher highs and higher lows trend)
Tags: #Gold #Commodities #HardAssets #GLD #DBC #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold PTs 2,800€ short term, 3K long termProbably nearing the end of the second bullish impulse that started around 2,300$, PTs 2,800€. Waiting for a turnaround around that area, and a fall to the (2)-(4) line around 2,600$ to then attack the 3K barrier (which I don’t think will pass in the following months).
Just my opinion!
Gold Builds Base : Look For Support Below $2650 For LongsMy research shows Gold will make another big move upward over the next 10-15+ days - targeting $2740-2750. But first, Gold will attempt to base/bottom near or below $2650 over the next two trading days.
My research suggests Oct 3 and Oct 4 will likely be the start of a rally phase for Gold targeting the $2750 level by Oct 14-15.
I believe traders should attempt to look for long entries below $2645-2655 and view any move below $2640 as a deep low opportunity.
Gold is still hedging the global risk factors at play throughout the world and will attempt to move above $3050 before the end of 2024.
Get ready. This is the start of the big rally phase I've been warning you about for the past 3-4+ years.
Everything I suggested would happen is taking place right now. You just have to be able to take the trades to benefit from these moves.
Get some.
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GOLD --- When Breakout? $2700 Target remains in place. The war against sound money...
keeping a "lid" on the price of the worlds biggest asset
and truly the only real collateral in the world.
Is being slowly lost.
We have a continuation head and shoulders that many people are watching.
But something to note
Is that the previous times #Gold has traded above 2 thousand dollars
The smackdown has been quick and violent.
If you noice in the past few weeks,
the compression of price ,
and the consecutive number of weekly closes above 2k.
Is the most it has ever been.
Are the Bankers ready to let it run...
since they seem to be pumping up all assets prices for the 2024 election.
I think the ramp up to 2.7k could be quite violent... do we get there by summer?
Bearish signals for BitcoinHistorically, the DMI cross has helped confirmed a change in the trend
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been forming a 8-month base at resistance levels
The -DM has been above the +DM for 8 weeks
Still price is king, let's see if the digital gold can catch up with the fisical gold AMEX:GLD
GOLD Makes A Big Move Targeting $2720Even though my Gold Cycle Patterns suggested Gold would consolidate a bit in early trading this week, the big breakout move today shows just how undervalued Gold really is.
Yes, my Gold Cycle Patterns did not predict this upward price move clearly.
This is an example where my patterns/expectations did not match exactly what price did. it happens.
You could say my expectations were a bit behind the trend or the trend was a bit ahead of my expectations - but either way this move surprised me.
Clearly, gold is making a big move and my upper target is 2710-2720.
Today's move will likely stall out near 2685, then contract to levels near 2670-2675.
Remember, Gold really wants to rally up to 2710-2720+. So, you have quite a bit of time to play this move efficiently.
Get some.
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Gold: Three Accelerating Up Trend Lines and SupportFor consideration: Hold if currently owned. If not, buy at $2,550, a 2.9% decline from the current price. This price touches the current up trend line. Put a stop loss at $2,500. Ride the up trend and sell with a material penetration. The trend is a series of three accelerating up trends so the steepness indicates it may not be sustainable. Plus, RSI has touched 70 twice recently meaning it's getting overbought. Note the two resistance and support levels at $2,288 and $2,072: 13% and 21% price declines respectively. If prices bounces off either of these supports, buy. These are my technical ideas based on price and trend analysis. I could be wrong and would be careful with such a steep existing trend established.
Is Gold signalling a crisis? Gold is going parabolic and typically that doesnt mean a good thing.
Now there are many reasons this could be rallying and likely a combination of the few.
- Fed Rate Cut
- Geo political tension
- Weak Fiat currencies
- Currency Crisis
- Weakening economies
In a time where gold enters these monthly extreme RSI moves it typically signals a good time to start trimming.
Gold usually goes through a multi month correction but this could also spill into other asset classes.
As the steepening effect on the 10y/2y finally was confirmed today, large macro implications could follow and this is exactly what Gold confirmed this week.
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December 200k-400k Trend
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December
Today we take a look at the Bitcoin price and we also cross check this with the spot Gold price.
Gold is a leading indicator for where a bulk of major capital flows when navigating the market and this is due to Gold being a safe haven next to Government bonds to park capital when you know governments will start forcing rate cuts with chance of QE + YCC.
Historically Gold clearly shows us the rallies prior the capital rotating into risk on assets, we saw it in 2017, 2020, and now we see it in 2024. If history repeats this would reprice Bitcoin to over $200,000 - $400,000 and this would start the next phase of the bull market.
Spot ETF Flows are strong, institutions have tested marketing strategies, Blackrock is currently pushing to enable the derivatives layers on top of the Spot ETF's.
I have compiled and tested Spot ETF data and I have found the Spot ETF to have a 3.32 impact for every dollar. To get to the price target of 400k total Spot ETF AUM would need to total 363.19B (Currently $52.04 billion).
Conclusion
This is feeling more and more like $2,200 during July 2017 shortly after prices rallied to $5,690 by October 2017, a similar repeat would take the price to $150,000.
Institutions are accumulating slowly based on the dips indicating they are trying to keep the price under an amount like $100,000 that could trigger a rush back into Bitcoin by retail. Balances of > 100 Bitcoin and of > 1,000 are slowly starting to rise.
Balances of > 0.1 & > 1.0 & > 0.01 have started to trend sideways reducing each month indicating a sense of "boredom" where retail is selling and institutions are accumulating these bored coins.
MSTR remains to be one of the bullish stocks relating to Bitcoin and when institutions launch a large marketing campaign and start mutual fund allocations the MSTR / Multiple to NAV will experience large volatility.
The cycles are similar but the game has changed, all the money in the world has access to the Bitcoin market and there's less than 3,000,000 coins left to purchase. Once the next stage of this market begins it will be met with shock by retail and news around the world.
Extra Math Notes
Ratio of Exchange Balance to Active Supply:
3,000,000 #BTC (Exchange Balance)
Ratio ≈ 0.301
9,964,872.56 BTC (Active Supply)
Spot ETF AUM has a 3.32 Price Impact
400k = 363.19b
I have figured out this formula by taking the exchange balances / Active Supply of Bitcoin that is lively the last years and not lost or total supply, getting the ratio and figuring out how much the Spot ETF moves the Bitcoin price.