Silver in the Channel Published an earlier version of this idea with more poorly drawn corridors, but it seems for the most part to be validated for the time being. I expect silver to challenge recent highs and potentially cool back down toward mid 20s once that happens (before moving up further). However it is entirely possible that once silver reaches these targets that it simply continues to tear through them - it depends on other factors, but regardless, I am LONG.
I think metals, and silver especially, will be rising moving forward both in the short, medium, and long term. Inflation is only beginning, monetary conditions are changing worldwide and the financial system is on the brink of a paradigm shift. Out with "old" thinking and in with even older thinking!
Post Script: I'm a noob here, so apologies for any miss-steps.
GLD
GLD head and shouldery looking, short term target ~170volume declining on back half of the formation. neckline break could spell trouble (call it 175-177 zone), would imply downside to 168 or so, a little below the 200 day. short term formation so might be short lived.
longer term, I still ee a beautiful cup-n-handle here, which i think stays in tact. if this pattern does validate, it seems the bottom end there would be nice to step in for exposure to the 10 year cup-n-handle pattern.
The Gold Odyssey continues as old is still GoldOn 20 Feb 2022, Gold was reviewed as " The Gold Odyssey continues... an old but Gold story "
It was almost two months ago that was described the handle (of the giant sized Cup & Handle) would be completed this year. Since then, we had a preview with Gold spiking to 2078, only to pull back hard. This shook weak hands badly, having retraced to hard over a week. As I told my circle about gold last week, many asked if Gold is actually not going down. And yesterday's long upper tailed doji might have misled more to think so too.
We need to see the big picture for this.
The weekly chart is suggesting that this week is critical to see a bullish run start. This just so happens to be in the 4 April and 16 April window marked out since February.
Furthermore, the daily technicals look about ripe to launch off a bull run, and it should be above 1980 by the end of the week for a clear bullish break out.
Having done that, 2100 would be the target by mid-2022.
PS. I do not like the reasons for this bull run as, in alignment to the markets declining, something is about to happen that we do not see yet... not in the papers at least.
Stay safe...
Gold getting ready for a run back to the March highs?After consolidating for 1 month around 180, Gold is making its second attempt to break out and run higher. The longer term trend is in Gold bulls favor and so is the current macro environment. If it fails in the short-term, it's worth keeping an eye on for the bigger picture move up.
GOLD AnalysisAs supply-side inflation continues to worsen, I don't see the economy getting better. I believe we are headed for a true recession within the next 12 months. With that in mind, my technical analysis for gold lines up. I think we will see GOLD at 3,000 USD/OZ within the next few years. Just an idea. Let me know your thoughts.
The dollar just broke a 37 year old trendline This doesnt look good for Bitcoin. This could be the beginning of BTC to retest 20k level if the dollar keeps spiking. Commodities at all time highs, the USD is needed globally... much sooner then they need Bitcoin. Until commodities are paid in BTC, the Dollar will remain strong with EUROPE / Global uncertainty
Gold miners ETF (GDX) taking off again!The Gold Miners ETF, GDX, as expected, launched itself after a small recoil.
The Weekly chart key takeaway is that the MACD and RPM followed through, but better yet, this week saw the weekly candlestick to be in a rather bullish position, closing the week on a recent 9-month high.
Fibonacci projections bring a 47.50 upside target in the following weeks.
The Daily chart confirms the bullish indications similarly. Having bounced off an intermediate support, the technicals are turning bullish again as the strong close for the last day of the week encourages a breakout above 40.
Arc in GDXJ / GDX ratio points to junior mining bullmarketIf you make a ratio of Gold Juniors to Gold Majors, you will find that there is an arc in the making since 2010.
It looks like we are about to enter the fun side of the arc, where juniors outperform majors.
This is historically often a sign of liquidity and luster returning to gold, in the form of rising gold prices, and risk securities outperforming.
Got Juniors?
GLD longer term bullish C&H patternGLD (or Gold, I don't play futures) look extremely bullish with a long term cup and handle pattern that has taken over a decade to set up. Was interested in waiting further into the week but yesterday's selling and the gap down today with the buying that has come in, just tells me to go ahead and get in. So going to pick up Jan 2024 call options. If you have any concerns over the stock market, this looks like a "no-brainer" type of place to go hide out.
Cup and handle forming on GLD! Time again to keep an eye on the price of GLD!
There are many factors that come into play with the price of gold. Our outlook remains bullish here technically and fundamentally. With the Fed having printed TRILLIONS over the last couple of years due to the pandemic they have drastically increased the supply of the dollar. This act has of course contributed to the inflation numbers we have been seeing over the last couple of months.
With the value of the dollar decreasing, we've seen drastic increases of value in multiple commodities such as lumber, nickel, copper, oil, natural gas...etc. As we see the dollar decrease further an inflation to continue higher it is only a matter of time before real money (Gold) starts to become the center of attention.
The headwinds against this in the short term is the Fed's decision to taper the purchase of bond assets so they can increase interest rates to "fight" inflation. The only problem with this is that we don't believe the Federal Reserve will really commit to fighting inflation via rising rates. Consensus for 2022 rate hikes at the moment is sitting around 4. This would likely put rates at around 1% by the end of 2022. If we include 2023 projections, we'll be looking at rates around 2% in 2 years (maybe 3% with more aggressive estimates). This flat out won't be enough to fight the inflation numbers that we're seeing.
Now if the Fed DOES decide to actively fight inflation and increase rates to upwards of 7% to fight this inflation, they will stunt economic growth and send markets spiraling downwards. We simply don't see the current regime at the Fed willing to do this. The only choice we have is to live with the current inflation for years and years to come.
GLD breakout is finally happening! Check out the monthly chart on GLD! We've gone over this breakout and if finally looks like we're getting a higher high.
We have been long on GLD and physical gold for awhile now as an inflation hedge.
This will also be an active play if tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate.
Looking at our fib extensions we see $200 and $210 are well within reach. AMEX:GLD
NVDA 182 PRICE TARGET - BY MARCH 21NVDA should hit a price of 182 on or before March 21st - if this level does not hold, it should continue down near the 160 range.
The Volume and On Balance Volume helps confirm this. As far as patterns go, NVDA seems to be at the top of a strong channel, and has plenty of room to descent.
I will be looking for puts on NVDA in the coming days.
Is GOLD $GLD going to make a move to the upside!?Is gold going to make another move?!?
I think it might. First off with everything going on both in the USA, along with the Ukrainian & Russian war. I think gold (GLD) might be heating up.
If you look at the flow into options, I think it might suggest a very BULLISH future for gold, I mean its been consolidating on the weekly for a while now, and looks absolutely primed on the monthly.
I have listed 3 Targets (Options based):
#1 $187.41 - $188.65
#2 $194-40 - $197.00
#3 $200.00 - $205.00 is a lottery (holding over a few contracts from target #2)
Longer term I could see this hitting $220.00+, but at the current moment we will just play what is in front of us.
Gold (XAU) • Macro bearish divergence There is a lot of hype around gold bull market recently.
But with the rise of Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value. Can gold maintain its legacy of preferred long term store of value any longer?
The 3M chart is showing some signs of concern with a very clear macro bearish divergence.
I see trading bellow 1678 as an early bearish level and 1500 as support range. The question is if this support will sustain the incoming bearish momentum.
I do think that being long Gold here carries a lot of risk specially with lower-timeframes showing signs of weakness going on and this macro double top with a RSI bearish divergence.
Seeing the 3Month RSI marking above the divergence trendlines (or above 73%) would be good criteria/heuristics/rule-set for return to the bullish bias.
Historically speaking the RSI seem to show good synergy with the pace of this Quarterly timeframe.
My RSI still in green but the momentum is visibly fading away and starting to pointing down.
NVDA PT OF 210 - BY MARCH 8TH I have a price target of 210 for NVDA on or by Tuesday, March 8th. The On Balance Volume indicator is showing a hidden bearish divergence on the chart, with weakening bearish momentum.
With current geo-political events continuing to escalate, I see it becoming harder for NVDA to break its resistances. Couple this, with recent hacking attempts on NVDAs networks - I will be looking for puts the coming days.
SPY 422 PT - MARCH 8TH SPY should hit 422 on or by March 8th. Indicators show that Bullish momentum is growing weaker, while the On Balance Volume shows struggle in SPY going any higher.
With surging oil prices, and an escalating War in Europe, I think SPY will have a harder and harder time breaking through it's resistances. We also have the FEDs rate hike in March, and with new talks of the U.S and Europe closing gas lines from Russia, it is very possible we see an even higher surge in inflation, causing the FED to react faster than investors have priced in.
I will be looking for put opportunities on NVDA and SPY.
GLD, BTC, ETH, ADAComparison of crypto currencies to gold.
The buying and selling decisions depicted in this chart suggest that gold is still considered a flight to safety.
BTC will once again have to become the centre of public and policy maker's thoughts in order for it to reverse.
** Do note that the assets depicted are on separate scales (ie high beta in crypto compared to gold = greater percentage price moves).