GLD
GOLD in a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) - BULLISHBrief and simple - GOLD is in a VCP pattern. I won't venture to try to time the breakout out of this. But the key levels to watch are $1830 and ultimately $1900. When above $1900 - GOLD will be a strong buy. However, having come up from ~$1650 bottom, don't be surprised if it retests any key support levels along the way.
Obviously, if this thesis doesn't work out - watch out below. There's a lot of space below the key trend support line where the rally started in 2019...
Stay safe and keep an open mind!
Gold in coiling modeIt appears that in recent months, a rally in Gold snooked many, with false breakouts that were followed immediately with reversals. This happened thrice in July August period, which was abruptly ended with a steep drop of more than 1000.
And yet it bounced off hard, over the last week.
Relooking into the chart patterns, the cup (or handle rather) is redrawn and retimed. A new breakout level is also set in. This time, a better chance for Gold to recover is attributed to the bullish divergence seen in the RPM and MACD.
The weekly candle is also supportive with a consolidating week after the previous which had a very long tail (of demand).
The lines are drawn and will be watched.
Uncanny, but this appears to align at a time when equities are long in the teeth of a rally. What relationship this might bring is still open for interpretation. But I would personally leave it open for now, and let the market decide...
Gold appears to be bullish on breakout over the next couple of weeks.
COPX - bully bounce timeCOPX took another hit today and lost +4% which is a little surprising considering Max Pain this Friday is $37... maximum-pain.com
Expecting a turn soon. Probably starting next week after some more pain and fear...
Indicators appear to be looking for a turn on the daily, and Volume is drying up on this leg down.
Potential selling climax on July 19th.
Bollinger' Band width can go lower but not much IMO before a turn.
New high isn't likely given the drop out of the longer term regression channel.
Tradable bounce - lasting ~30 days...maybe less on deck for COPX.
Maybe another 3% to 4% down. Falling knifes and all... buy the fear.
Bounce Target = $40.xx See Chart
Not financial advice.
Wheaton Precious Metals' Q2 Revenues Reached New Record-HighWheaton's attributable gold equivalent production climbed to 194,140 toz and the sales amounted to 176,700 toz.
Revenues grew to new record-high at $330.4 million.
Two new acquisitions were completed in Q2.
The dividend was raised for the fourth quarter in a row; the dividend yield equals 1.35% now.
STRIKEPOINT GOLD INC. Swing Trade PositionSUMMARY
Technical Analysis: I am long the stock because I see price action has completed a corrective ABC pattern on the daily Chart. From here price action could develop a bullish counter trend.
Fundamentals: The company has commenced drilling at their High-grade Willoughby property. The Company is cashed up and IF! they hit bigly then share price pushes higher.
I do not share in your gains nor in your losses. Do your own due diligence. Trade safe, be well.
Visit their webpage and look through their corporate presentation - www.strikepointgold.com
Trade Idea: GLD March 18th 140/September 17th 165 LCD*... long call diagonal.
Comments: Here, I'm preliminarily pricing out a bullish assumption GLD setup, buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month at-the-money call. I'd prefer to deploy this at that obvious support level at 160, which has resulted in some buying interest previously. If that occurs, I'd have to tweak the strikes slightly, selling an at-the-money 160, for example, and then buying whatever the 90 delta strike in the back month.
The Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 22.79 ($2279)
Max Profit: The Width of the Diagonal Spread (25.00) Minus the Debit Paid (22.79) = 2.21 ($221)
ROC %-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.21/22.79 = 9.7%
Break Even: The Long Call Strike (140) + the Debit Paid (22.79) = 162.79 versus a spot price of 164.64
Trade Management:
Take profit on the setup's approach of max (which would be 25.00).
Otherwise, roll out the short call to a strike at or above your break even of 164.64 to reduce setup cost basis.
Variations:
Preliminarily, I'm pricing out the setup with a fairly long-dated back month. To get in with less buying power effect, look to buy a shorter duration back month 90 delta, with the trade-off being that you'll have less time to reduce cost basis via the short call in the event that gold prices keep on going down. To look for more profit potential, sell a less monied call (e.g., the 30 delta) to give the trade more room to the upside.
GOLD - Seasonality bullish in august and septemberHappy Sunday traders!
Trading strategy using seasonality, app.seasonax.com Seasonality for Gold is bullish in august and september for the past 25 years.
I am long GLD Sept $175 call options at 1.99, down ight now to 1.55. The Sept Put/call open interest ratio is .72.
GDX HAS COILED ENERGYThe metals have been stuck in a range for quite a while. Gold Miners ETF (GDX) appears to have made 5 waves up since the crash in 2020 and formed an ongoing complex correction. What do you think? Has GDX bottomed? Take note of the lower stoch/rsi wavetrend indicator and the broadening nature that has occurred since this correction. This looks like a hidden bearish pattern that will eventually break. When it breaks, GDX is likely to move up incredibly strong. Perhaps one more push lower? I don't know... But I'll be ready if it drops again.
For me, I have some medium-longer term targets over 55-60.
Gold COT - Growing signs of bullishnessCommitment of Traders (COT) shows growing signs of commercial being less short than the last 3 months which marks a possible bullish sentiment potentially coming into this market.
Discussion
There are three core issues when looking at gold, in my opinion:
1) Basel III, has implications for trading paper gold - the majority of traded gold to date and its effects are not well understood;
2) Mark-to-market of commodities against the US dollar including gold;
3) Input costs of mining new gold (Oil) noting that a majority of the gold traded is simply 'paper' gold or derivatives - even by gold miners themselves.
Notice that I have not made any commentary on inflation or deflation. There is no evidence from the perspective of the US market that either will be significant in the near to medium term, irrespective what the media and others promote.
Suggestion
Keep an eye of this, along with gold miners and ETFs.