GLD
$AAPL $AMZN $NVAX $GLD I OptionsSwing WatchlistAMZN 1D I As AMZN earnings approach on 07/29, we are seeing AMZN about to retest ATH levels, expecting a breakout.
AAPL 1D I After the breakout from our triangle AAPL running non-stop to retest ATH levels, earnings on 07/27 will decide where it goes.
GLD 1D I After breaking out from a bull flag back, we are seeing GLD retrace back and possibly making a double bottom near $165.
NVAX 4H I Is breaking out from a downtrend with volume, we are expecting to see a run up into its earnings on 08/09.
Rolling (IRA): GLD July 16th 166 to July 23rd 166... for a .36/contract credit.
Comments: Here, just rolling the short option leg of my GLD diagonal (See Post Below) while price is right at the short call strike to bring in a little bit more credit, reduce cost basis further, and improve my break even a smidge. I originally filled this for 14.24 (See Post Below), so my cost basis is now 14.24 - .36 or 13.88 and my break even 150 (the long call strike) + 13.88 or 163.88. Max profit potential now the width of the spread (16) minus my cost basis of 13.88 or 2.12.
GDXJ Arc indicates low risk entry with 250% upside The fun side of the arc in the junior miners is currently playing out. At the moment, we reside at the edge of the arc, which presents a very low risk high reward entry. Completion of the arc would indicate a gain of around 250% + overshoot, in an 18 months timeframe.
Dollar, Gold and the Euro - where to next?
I just read an idea posted in Tradingview that this is the time to buy the EURO.
As well there is a lot of chatter about Gold being a gift at these levels.
This big move started this week. I believe its too soon to take a position in either one of them. This is not to say there won't be backtests as investors rush in. Looking at these daily charts gives you the perspective to see what's really going on.
So to be clear - the value of the US dollar (DXY) affects the EURO and GOLD - as the both are based on the relative strength of the DXY.
This move isn't over - clearly the breakout is happening fast, it maybe over this upcoming week. However, that does not mean it return immediately to previous levels. Expect some accumulation and distribution.
A higher US Dollar slows down: inflation, and debt ridden non-US companies with US Dollar denominated debt, who now have larger financial obligations.
One thing that is VERY interesting is clear that all three, DXY, GOLD, and the EURO are balancing inside their respective triangles, for a much bigger move. If you have the answer to that - its worth a fortune.
Why is this happening? The Federal Reserve has now signaled that there are at least two rate hikes forthcoming. While in Europe there is none of this talk, ergo higher rates - stronger currency.
Last year there were numerous well respected pundits claiming the dollar was about to soar (such as Keith McCullough of Hedgeye and Raoul Pal of Real Vision fame) Pal wrote on Twitter April 25th, 2020: 'You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a viscous doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise' I can't believe he hasn't deleted this tweet.
When in fact the absolute opposite happened. So tune out the noise and watch the charts for the 'Real Vision' ;)
Expect the US Dollar to push through the what is an obvious trend line and bend it not break it approaching the round psychological number of 93. This is also close to 1.61 Fib at the top of the channel. The yellow triangle is where you might consider taking a long position in either the metals or pairs that verses the US dollar.
Levels are indentified where both GOLD and the EURO may fall to.
As a side note, the US Equites have rallied in part because of weakness in the US Dollar, which rallied at every drop in the dollar - they may have some catch up to do as the dollar is rising faster than SPX or NDX is dropping although the Russell and DOW seemed to be paying attention.
Another case againt goldThis chart shows that Gold is currently at or nearing a high in comparison to the US Real yields cycle, and not at the buying price that many think it is. A possible 24% correction is in order IMO.
Gold volatility in playThe sudden drop in Gold was expected (privately shared) within a circle. But what was surprising was the immense drop, spurred by the sudden spike in the USD.
Noted that there appears to be an inverse Head adn Shoulders pattern forming, and the neckline and extension is marked in purple.
Projection for down and a fast up to 2100 in mid-October 2021 (previously September).
Watch for the bounce!
GLD ForcastThis most likely course for gold to take over the next week. I believe GLD will fill the gap, test TL, and then be rejected and break down lower. Scalping up to TL, and then Short will be the positions i will be looking to take. I dont believe that Gold will be a safe bet in the event that we see a 5-10% correction in the overall market.
Opening (IRA): GLD September 17th 150/July 16th 166 LCV*Comments: Pre-market, this is showing bid 13.89/mid 14.05/ask 14.21. Going long call vertical on gold weakness here (and taking a little advantage of call side skew), buying the back month 90 and selling the front month at-the-money. A sixteen-wide for which I'll be paying no worse (at least currently) 14.21, so a max profit potential of the width of the diagonal minus what I paid or 1.79 with an ROC at max of 12.6%.
I'll have several opportunities to roll out the short call for additional cost basis reduction in the event that this weakness isn't over.
* -- Long call vertical.
Don't get PLAYED by Big Money: Inflation Trade Over?To trade the markets you have to be AWARE of the world and what is going on. We have to read the news every day but we should not always take what people are saying at face value. The news is never a leading indicator but it can at times be an INVERSE indicator. Don't get played by big money "talking their position" ...
In this video we look at examples of the last two years when the media hype was the OPPOSITE trade to take for...
AMEX:GLD
AMEX:USO
AMEX:SPY
NASDAQ:TLT
Ready for a Move
Circled are at .78 Fib retracement you can see two wicks - these were two quick rejections.
I was able to sell both of them and took some profit today at yesterdays VPOC today.
HOWEVER look at this price action, it went nowhere today yet managed to sweep longs and shorts.
We are sitting at the top of a multi-month trend line (see related ideas) , we are also sitting on the weekly and monthly VWAPS.
We have completely balanced - and now here comes the move.
Looking at the RSI on the back test you'll notice how weak it is - and it was quick (barely got filled)
Targets : the obviously one is the VPOC shown at 1872, HOWEVER There are more. I believe we could see 1836 to 1818. There are VPOCs there and high volume nodes to offer support.
Plan: If you we get one more back test (fake move) you can take a short in the highlighted area yellow box - if price shows strength past the .78 Retracement - its invalidated.
To get into this trade you might have to do so at the Asian open at 9 EST. Mostly likely they try to ramp it and sell it to retail on their open.
Gold - Wyckoff DistributionIdea for Gold (XAUUSD):
- This is a Wyckoff Distribution Forecast of Gold.
Wyckoff Definitions:
BC - Buying Climax
SOW - Sign of Weakness
UT - Upthrust
LPSY - Last Point Of Supply
Wyckoff Phases:
Phase A - Stopping of prior uptrend
Phase B - Building a cause for preparation for a new downtrend
Phase C - Test of remaining demand
Phase D - Supply showing dominance
Phase E - Unfolding of the downtrend
GLHF
- DPT
$BLNK $BA $GLD $BIDU I OptionsSwing WatchlistBLNK 4H I Breakout from massive downtrend, has to hold the $24 level for continuation. As the infrastructure bill is discussed, we expect to see some of those efforts to focus on electric vehicle stations.
BA 4H I We caught the whole move on BA. After breaking out from the falling wedge we have seen BA with strong momentum to the upside. Expecting to consolidate between $240-$250 before seeing a continuation to the upside.
GLD 1D I We also caught the breakout on GLD. As long as there is uncertainty and inflation fears in the market, we will see GLD continue with its upward momentum.
BIDU 1H I On the hourly we are seeing an ascending triangle on BIDU. Its getting tight, so we expect a move this upcoming week. Although this pattern tends to be bullish we remain neutral as we can play a breakout to the upside or downside.
Got Gold?
Earlier this week I published a chart showing gold was against resistance.
We pulled back from it in the last day or two. See related Ideas to understand more.
I had set a Tradeview Alert if we returned to the end of the trendline. That was a couple of days ago.
After hours (for Gold Futures /GC) my alert went off. Which is interesting - I think this a short squeeze, Gold moved a bunch after hours.
So the plan: Today they came within a tick of touching the the VPOC at 1893 - and bounced incredibly quickly back to the median price at $1900, and then higher.
They took out the POC at 1906 after hours - this means there are NO higher targets, they have been obtained.
Now what? I think this target at 1883 is going to happen next week.
Bigger picture it's clear Gold is back alive. I'd like to see it pull back the big arrow and then go very long from there. Institutional buyers will see this as a buy signal - I know will.
Expect the overhead resistance to be challenged a few times but ultimately broken.
NOTE: THIS COMPRESSED IMAGE IS A TV ISSUE
I can edit the text, but NOT the image to deal with their compression of the image.