GLD ForcastThis most likely course for gold to take over the next week. I believe GLD will fill the gap, test TL, and then be rejected and break down lower. Scalping up to TL, and then Short will be the positions i will be looking to take. I dont believe that Gold will be a safe bet in the event that we see a 5-10% correction in the overall market.
GLD
Opening (IRA): GLD September 17th 150/July 16th 166 LCV*Comments: Pre-market, this is showing bid 13.89/mid 14.05/ask 14.21. Going long call vertical on gold weakness here (and taking a little advantage of call side skew), buying the back month 90 and selling the front month at-the-money. A sixteen-wide for which I'll be paying no worse (at least currently) 14.21, so a max profit potential of the width of the diagonal minus what I paid or 1.79 with an ROC at max of 12.6%.
I'll have several opportunities to roll out the short call for additional cost basis reduction in the event that this weakness isn't over.
* -- Long call vertical.
Don't get PLAYED by Big Money: Inflation Trade Over?To trade the markets you have to be AWARE of the world and what is going on. We have to read the news every day but we should not always take what people are saying at face value. The news is never a leading indicator but it can at times be an INVERSE indicator. Don't get played by big money "talking their position" ...
In this video we look at examples of the last two years when the media hype was the OPPOSITE trade to take for...
AMEX:GLD
AMEX:USO
AMEX:SPY
NASDAQ:TLT
Ready for a Move
Circled are at .78 Fib retracement you can see two wicks - these were two quick rejections.
I was able to sell both of them and took some profit today at yesterdays VPOC today.
HOWEVER look at this price action, it went nowhere today yet managed to sweep longs and shorts.
We are sitting at the top of a multi-month trend line (see related ideas) , we are also sitting on the weekly and monthly VWAPS.
We have completely balanced - and now here comes the move.
Looking at the RSI on the back test you'll notice how weak it is - and it was quick (barely got filled)
Targets : the obviously one is the VPOC shown at 1872, HOWEVER There are more. I believe we could see 1836 to 1818. There are VPOCs there and high volume nodes to offer support.
Plan: If you we get one more back test (fake move) you can take a short in the highlighted area yellow box - if price shows strength past the .78 Retracement - its invalidated.
To get into this trade you might have to do so at the Asian open at 9 EST. Mostly likely they try to ramp it and sell it to retail on their open.
Gold - Wyckoff DistributionIdea for Gold (XAUUSD):
- This is a Wyckoff Distribution Forecast of Gold.
Wyckoff Definitions:
BC - Buying Climax
SOW - Sign of Weakness
UT - Upthrust
LPSY - Last Point Of Supply
Wyckoff Phases:
Phase A - Stopping of prior uptrend
Phase B - Building a cause for preparation for a new downtrend
Phase C - Test of remaining demand
Phase D - Supply showing dominance
Phase E - Unfolding of the downtrend
GLHF
- DPT
$BLNK $BA $GLD $BIDU I OptionsSwing WatchlistBLNK 4H I Breakout from massive downtrend, has to hold the $24 level for continuation. As the infrastructure bill is discussed, we expect to see some of those efforts to focus on electric vehicle stations.
BA 4H I We caught the whole move on BA. After breaking out from the falling wedge we have seen BA with strong momentum to the upside. Expecting to consolidate between $240-$250 before seeing a continuation to the upside.
GLD 1D I We also caught the breakout on GLD. As long as there is uncertainty and inflation fears in the market, we will see GLD continue with its upward momentum.
BIDU 1H I On the hourly we are seeing an ascending triangle on BIDU. Its getting tight, so we expect a move this upcoming week. Although this pattern tends to be bullish we remain neutral as we can play a breakout to the upside or downside.
Got Gold?
Earlier this week I published a chart showing gold was against resistance.
We pulled back from it in the last day or two. See related Ideas to understand more.
I had set a Tradeview Alert if we returned to the end of the trendline. That was a couple of days ago.
After hours (for Gold Futures /GC) my alert went off. Which is interesting - I think this a short squeeze, Gold moved a bunch after hours.
So the plan: Today they came within a tick of touching the the VPOC at 1893 - and bounced incredibly quickly back to the median price at $1900, and then higher.
They took out the POC at 1906 after hours - this means there are NO higher targets, they have been obtained.
Now what? I think this target at 1883 is going to happen next week.
Bigger picture it's clear Gold is back alive. I'd like to see it pull back the big arrow and then go very long from there. Institutional buyers will see this as a buy signal - I know will.
Expect the overhead resistance to be challenged a few times but ultimately broken.
NOTE: THIS COMPRESSED IMAGE IS A TV ISSUE
I can edit the text, but NOT the image to deal with their compression of the image.
Gold... it is time.Previously, as expected Gold to run up in April 2021, it did.
Now, it broke out of a channel, and made the first run.
The weekly chart is showing another robust up trend, but the daily chart signals time for a mild retracement.
I suppose one could see this as an opportunity.
Marked out the bounce area and the target of 2100 as well. This is a multiyear cup and handle formation, so... guess where the 1.9T is going?
Double Bottom and RLCO Crossover: Gold is ready to RollGold has formed a double bottom (higher low) on the 30 hour 2 STDV Bollinger band. In addition, in a configuration with a high rate of success with Gold (and ES, Bitcoin, but not most FOREX unless it's commodity associated FOREX like the Ruble, NOK, or MXN), the 10 hour regression line has crossed over the 14 hour 0.2 stdv bollinger band (an improved version of the traditional RLCO crossover system designed for shorter timeframes). The signs point to a breakout.
VOX HighlightsFirst Quarter 2021 Highlights
• Record revenue of $539,980 and gross profit of $479,271 reported for the quarter, with inaugural revenues received from
the Koolyanobbing royalty;
• Increased producing royalty asset count from one asset at May 2020 listing to four assets by Q1 2021 quarter-end;
• Strong balance sheet position at period end, including cash on hand of $10,723,135, working capital of $9,117,150 and
total assets of $29,024,889;
• Completed three portfolio transactions to acquire an additional ten royalties, reaching a total critical mass of 50 royalties
and streams;
• Completed an overnight marketed public offering for aggregate gross proceeds of C$16.85M;
• Subsequent to March 31, 2021:
- Announced a strategic partnership with Electric Royalties Limited (TSX-V: ELEC) and the potential
divestment of two non-core graphite royalties for C$2.9M; and
- The Company appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as their auditors effective April 30, 2021.
About the Koolyanobbing Royalty
The Koolyanobbing royalty is an uncapped royalty of 2% on the average/tonne Free on Board ("FOB") sales value of iron ore extracted from the Deception Deposit on mining lease M77/1258.
Prior to Vox acquiring the Koolyanobbing royalty from Vonex Limited ("Vonex") in 2020, a historical pre-payment of the royalty in the sum of A$3,000,000 was made by Cliffs Asia Pacific Iron Ore Pty Ltd to Vonex. As previously disclosed in Vox's filing statement dated May 12, 2020, no royalty cash flows are payable to Vox until this pre-payment amount has been exhausted. The outstanding balance as of December 31, 2020, was A$1,782,032.
Vox has entered into a binding agreement with Yilgarn Iron Pty Ltd pursuant to which Vox will extinguish the outstanding balance of the Koolyanobbing pre-payment through a cash payment of A$1,782,032 within five business days from the execution date of the agreement. Following payment of the settlement amount, effective January 1, 2021, Vox will earn royalty revenues from the Koolyanobbing royalty.
Royalty revenues associated with the Koolyanobbing (Deception Pit) royalty over the past two years and forecast for 2021 are as follows:
2019 = $724,198
2020 = $493,769
2021 Forecast = $600,000 – $800,000
The Deception Pit and the Altair Pit to the north are currently being mined at a rate of 1.1Mtpa – 1.3Mtpa. Historical royalty attributable annual production on the Vox royalty tenure (M77/1258, see Figure 2) has averaged 180,000t – 360,000t and Vox management expect this royalty attributable production rate to increase in coming years as mining transitions further north within M77/1258.
For more information on Koolyanobbing, please visit the Mineral Resources website at: www.mineralresources.com.au
Gold - Top of Trendline
Nice move for gold over the last two months.
Its sits atop of a trendline from last September
Its is considerably outside the Keltner Channel on this daily chart. I have measured the pull back to the median on line - and you can see what it has done in the past.
As long as the trendline hold - this could be a decent short. Breaks the trendline then presumably there is more upside.
Ran the same exercise on Silver - its still a bit away from an upper trendline resistance.
GOLD NEXT WEEK #19Forecast:
Addressing market sentiment regarding Gold backed ETF's, COMEX and BONDs etc. Daily chart analysis, looking at the Gold price from a broader perspective. Fib, 0.618 @ ~1848 is a potential target in May before a deeper correction.
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's, $DXY and US10/30yr Bonds and Yields
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
#gold vs #FED #M2 ... a wall of #dollars should Push #metals UPPLENTY of ROOM to the upside measure Money stock