GLD
Who said tha Gold is dead? Possible reversal and uptrendI think $GOLD is bullish and may fit also a narrative, the gold spot value is bullish, hedge against inflation, plus bitcoin, plus hedge against correction in the equity market or volatily.
Price target is difficult since Gold is a slow mover. Let's say 24$.
Gold looks ripe to launch in April style - yet again!After MONTHS of waiting, consolidating and fake outs, Gold GC1! appears to have what it takes to launch a cenet breakout rally and continue its long term trend UPwards.
Given this at a time when USD 1.9T was dished out, and the next round of trillions in infrastructure spending, it forms the fundamental basis of the technical outlook.
On the Gold weekly chart, we see that price itself maintained well from the 1600 target I set out last year (or earlier)... a bullish indication, which is accentuated by the last 8 weeks of candlestick price action. a higher low and nice long tails encourage a recent higher high to test the 55EMA this coming week.
Then the RPM and MACD appear favourable for that 55EMA test.
Underlying these, we can also see that the Largest 8 Traders (lowest panel) have been increasing their holdings, almost halving the net short positions as prices dip below 1800.
The Daily Gold chart (right) shows the recent higher low action, and the technicals are also aligned for a rally good rally attempt with the MACD is just crossing over into bullish territory as prices break out of an immediate down trend line.
Look out for Gold from this week!
(Co-incidentally, it was two weeks two years ago at the end of April 2019 that I called for a bullish stance on Gold. Seems like it may be seasonal)
Gold is hated and I never liked it more.The weekly chart of gold is a giant cup and handle, looking extremely bullish. There is a double bottom that printed on the shorter term charts which is a good sign. Everyone hates gold right now which is a good sign it bottomed, similar to BTC at the 3k levels last bear market. Money printing is still continuing at a rapid rate so it's just a matter of time before gold busts back into its all time highs and people start to like it again.
Gold is getting ready to break the current trendGold is currently in a big downtrend that began back in August 2020.
Despite that, recently it has been forming a possible bottom. RSI is forming a bullish divergence that is pointing Gold going up.
I still want it to confirm it breaking through 163$, the red trendline and the 200WMA. It's going to be hard, it may take weeks, but if it can break those levels we can see Gold back at the ATH.
Until we see all that I am neutral.
Gold breaking those levels could also mean harder times for stocks and even Bitcoin.
I think it is key to watch in what direction will Gold break the current short term lateral movement.
Have fun and be careful out there!
GOLD NEXT WEEK #14Forecast:
If price action follows up on the Truncation/Double bottom pattern, then we can expect a countertrend ABC / Zigzag pattern. B-wave, pull back target's between ~1712 or ~1699. Final bullish C-wave, target's @ ~1776 or ~1787.
If price action picks up bearish sentiment and breaks low of ~1678, then target's to look for @ ~1662 or ~1655.
I'll keep you posted... Trade safe, be well
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's, $DXY and US10/30yr bonds and yields
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
We are ready for a new bullish movement on XAUUSD -Hypothesis: The price is about to start a new bullish movement IF we have the confirmation of the price reaching the green line.
-If the price does not reach the green line, we will not consider our Hypothesis Active.
-Invalidation level: Redline, this means that if the price does not reach our green line, we will consider that the hypothesis is no longer valid / Also, if the price reaches the green line, and then a new local low happens (Redline) we will consider our Hypothesis to be wrong.
-Expected target: 1950,00
-Risk-free level: 1860.00 This means that if the price goes in the expected direction and reaches 1860.00, we will move our stop loss to the entry level.
Possible duration of the movement: 5 to 12 weeks
Technical Explanation: The price is on a convergence zone (Ascending trendline + Key Support level + Cloned channel of the Flag pattern). After a clear rejection on the level (double bottom pattern), we saw a clear breakout of the inner descending trendline. Based on those items, IF we have a new local high, we will consider that a confirmation for the bullish movement.
Thanks for reading!
April's FoolsIf you think the bond threat is over; it's not. It's you think the chopping is done; it ain't.
It's puzzling to me that the bond market hears another 2 trillion is going out the door and it's complacent with that. I guess because it's all "paid for" by 2 trillion in taxes over 15 years (it won't be). Meanwhile, the market hears that corporate taxes are going up and decides that it's time to celebrate.
Only one of these things can be true. And either the market is watching bond yields too closely so as not to notice taxes, or envisioning what 2 trillion in infrastructure money looks like and deciding that it can compensate for the tax increase somewhere down the road.
It wasn't just that the market blazed ahead without really digesting the new possibilities. It's that it saw a rotation back into the same old tech plays and memery that everyone rotated out of. huh.
Anyways, Gold GLD is looking pretty good, Retail Trade is looking overbought, and Consumer Staples is looking weak in the face of tech resurgence.
Opening (IRA): GLD July 16th 145 Short Put... for a 1.38/contract credit.
Notes: Here, I'm looking to establish a GLD position and/or acquire shares via short put ladder. Currently, I've got the April 16th 164's, May 21st 155's, and June 18th 149's in addition to this rung. I'm looking to acquire shares, so am fine with getting assigned and selling call against as part of a portfolio largely consisting of broad market (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA), treasuries/bonds (TLT, HYG, EMB, AGG), and precious metals (SLV, GLD).
GOLD continuous downtrendingContinuous down trending for GOLD.
If the price will close under the lower forecast line (line from recent lower to cloud with a 25 days distance) we can expect the price to continue to go down.
Also we need a confirmation by ichimoku with a descending cloud and conversation line.
As next relevant price area we can consider the previous low and a range between 1630 and 1600.
GOLD NEXT WEEK #12Forecast:
If momentum is strong this week, target's ~1762 and ~1785 before correction, but if price action develops truncation @ ~1755 and reverses, target's @ ~1714 - 1709ish.
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's
- $DXY and US10/30yr bonds and yields
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
GOLD NEXT WEEK #011Forecast:
See some upside for gold this week, but it all depends on how bond-market play's out. Targets @ ~1746 and ~1762.
Also; I briefly address market sentimet - why gold is not favorable at the moment.
Video time: 06:13
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold price for the coming week. I'll also follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics - Market sentiment, Gold Shares / ETF's A-z, $DXY and US10/30yr Bond Yield
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some Market Data.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus