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GLD

The Plan Ahead: GLD Levels/Strategic Acquisition Via Short PutGenerally speaking, I'm a premium seller, taking advantage of high implied volatility to sell options to take a position in an underlying without actually getting into shares of stock. GLD, however, isn't particularly known for its volatility and therefore isn't the greatest standalone premium selling play. As of the writing of this post, 30-day implied is at 15.6%, which isn't exactly something to write home about. Consequently, while I am selling premium in GLD, I consider what I'm doing as more in the nature of a directional shot on weakness as a opposed to a pure "tons of room to be wrong" premium selling play and because of this, actually look at a GLD chart from time to time to consider whether given weakness is weakness I'm looking for and whether selling a put at a given strike "lines up" with given price action and is in an area in which I'd be comfortable with acquiring shares. Pictured here is my full GLD ladder, with puts sold or rolled at various points in time. As is apparent from price action, I may have gotten a bit too aggressive with the 163, but was a little more thoughtful with the other rungs where I sold on weakness back to ~155, which is apparent support/resistance running back to June of 2020 and even got some longer dated contracts on where the 20 delta was coincident with lower support resistance in the vicinity of 147. So, in a nutshell, here's the plan ahead: a) Obviously, I'm going to have to manage the 163's. I don't like the level particularly as an acquisitional price point, since it's now apparent that the market will give me opportunities for cheaper, if not at 155, then even farther below at 147. Consequently, I'll look to roll the 163's down a smidge and out in time in the event that price doesn't stick above that level running into the May 21st expiry. Although my mindset is to generally talk myself into being "fine" with acquiring shares at the price point any given short point represents, I regularly revisit whether I have changed my mind given what has occurred since I got filled, and here, well, I'd rather be in shares at a lower price. As a result, I'm going to stay in the options for the time being, which I can kind of massage and manipulate via roll -- something I can't do if I get into stock, where my cost basis reduction technique is limited to selling call against. b) On weakness back to 155, sell puts. Where? Well, I generally like room to be wrong, so it's likely to be ~20 delta, 45 days until expiry or greater. Those puts will be clear of the 155 and -- ideally, clear of that lower support/resistance at ~147, but we'll have to see when and if we get there where a 20 delta strike in the next expiry or expiries 45 days or greater line up. For those without the buying power to go full on naked, consider spreading with the short put leg at the 20. For example, the June 18th 154/159 short put vertical with the short leg at the 20 delta was paying .57 ($57) as of Friday close on buying power of 4.42, a 13.1% ROC at max. Not that I'm going to do that here (again, waiting for 155), but pricing out the spread gives me an idea as to where I'll have to set up my tent in the event I want to get at least 10% out of the spread, and that's with at least a ~20 delta short leg.
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
2
GOLD NEXT WEEK #16Forecast: The bullish counter trend Zig Zag pattern might finalize the C-wave this week and reverse to the downside. If it is only a narrow correction or beginning of a new bearish down trend, I can't say, yet. The fib, extension levels 1,27, 141 have been taken out. If bulls have the upper hand they might push price action to 1,618 @ ~1805 before price action reverses. I'll keep you updated. Trade safe, be well... About Gold Next Week # A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points. Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's, $DXY and US10/30yr Bonds and Yields System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals. Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade. Best Regards OmarDjurhuus
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn212178
Gold looks ripe to launch in April style - yet again!After MONTHS of waiting, consolidating and fake outs, Gold GC1! appears to have what it takes to launch a cenet breakout rally and continue its long term trend UPwards. Given this at a time when USD 1.9T was dished out, and the next round of trillions in infrastructure spending, it forms the fundamental basis of the technical outlook. On the Gold weekly chart, we see that price itself maintained well from the 1600 target I set out last year (or earlier)... a bullish indication, which is accentuated by the last 8 weeks of candlestick price action. a higher low and nice long tails encourage a recent higher high to test the 55EMA this coming week. Then the RPM and MACD appear favourable for that 55EMA test. Underlying these, we can also see that the Largest 8 Traders (lowest panel) have been increasing their holdings, almost halving the net short positions as prices dip below 1800. The Daily Gold chart (right) shows the recent higher low action, and the technicals are also aligned for a rally good rally attempt with the MACD is just crossing over into bullish territory as prices break out of an immediate down trend line. Look out for Gold from this week! (Co-incidentally, it was two weeks two years ago at the end of April 2019 that I called for a bullish stance on Gold. Seems like it may be seasonal)
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Gold is hated and I never liked it more.The weekly chart of gold is a giant cup and handle, looking extremely bullish. There is a double bottom that printed on the shorter term charts which is a good sign. Everyone hates gold right now which is a good sign it bottomed, similar to BTC at the 3k levels last bear market. Money printing is still continuing at a rapid rate so it's just a matter of time before gold busts back into its all time highs and people start to like it again.
AMEX:GLDLong
by XeroCrypto1
6
Gold is getting ready to break the current trendGold is currently in a big downtrend that began back in August 2020. Despite that, recently it has been forming a possible bottom. RSI is forming a bullish divergence that is pointing Gold going up. I still want it to confirm it breaking through 163$, the red trendline and the 200WMA. It's going to be hard, it may take weeks, but if it can break those levels we can see Gold back at the ATH. Until we see all that I am neutral. Gold breaking those levels could also mean harder times for stocks and even Bitcoin. I think it is key to watch in what direction will Gold break the current short term lateral movement. Have fun and be careful out there!
AMEX:GLD
by j0secyn
GOLD NEXT WEEK #14Forecast: If price action follows up on the Truncation/Double bottom pattern, then we can expect a countertrend ABC / Zigzag pattern. B-wave, pull back target's between ~1712 or ~1699. Final bullish C-wave, target's @ ~1776 or ~1787. If price action picks up bearish sentiment and breaks low of ~1678, then target's to look for @ ~1662 or ~1655. I'll keep you posted... Trade safe, be well About Gold Next Week # A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points. Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's, $DXY and US10/30yr bonds and yields System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals. Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade. Best Regards OmarDjurhuus
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn212178
5
We are ready for a new bullish movement on XAUUSD -Hypothesis: The price is about to start a new bullish movement IF we have the confirmation of the price reaching the green line. -If the price does not reach the green line, we will not consider our Hypothesis Active. -Invalidation level: Redline, this means that if the price does not reach our green line, we will consider that the hypothesis is no longer valid / Also, if the price reaches the green line, and then a new local low happens (Redline) we will consider our Hypothesis to be wrong. -Expected target: 1950,00 -Risk-free level: 1860.00 This means that if the price goes in the expected direction and reaches 1860.00, we will move our stop loss to the entry level. Possible duration of the movement: 5 to 12 weeks Technical Explanation: The price is on a convergence zone (Ascending trendline + Key Support level + Cloned channel of the Flag pattern). After a clear rejection on the level (double bottom pattern), we saw a clear breakout of the inner descending trendline. Based on those items, IF we have a new local high, we will consider that a confirmation for the bullish movement. Thanks for reading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
April's FoolsIf you think the bond threat is over; it's not. It's you think the chopping is done; it ain't. It's puzzling to me that the bond market hears another 2 trillion is going out the door and it's complacent with that. I guess because it's all "paid for" by 2 trillion in taxes over 15 years (it won't be). Meanwhile, the market hears that corporate taxes are going up and decides that it's time to celebrate. Only one of these things can be true. And either the market is watching bond yields too closely so as not to notice taxes, or envisioning what 2 trillion in infrastructure money looks like and deciding that it can compensate for the tax increase somewhere down the road. It wasn't just that the market blazed ahead without really digesting the new possibilities. It's that it saw a rotation back into the same old tech plays and memery that everyone rotated out of. huh. Anyways, Gold GLD is looking pretty good, Retail Trade is looking overbought, and Consumer Staples is looking weak in the face of tech resurgence.
AMEX:SPY
by PreferredStonk
3