GLD
We are ready for a new bullish movement on XAUUSD -Hypothesis: The price is about to start a new bullish movement IF we have the confirmation of the price reaching the green line.
-If the price does not reach the green line, we will not consider our Hypothesis Active.
-Invalidation level: Redline, this means that if the price does not reach our green line, we will consider that the hypothesis is no longer valid / Also, if the price reaches the green line, and then a new local low happens (Redline) we will consider our Hypothesis to be wrong.
-Expected target: 1950,00
-Risk-free level: 1860.00 This means that if the price goes in the expected direction and reaches 1860.00, we will move our stop loss to the entry level.
Possible duration of the movement: 5 to 12 weeks
Technical Explanation: The price is on a convergence zone (Ascending trendline + Key Support level + Cloned channel of the Flag pattern). After a clear rejection on the level (double bottom pattern), we saw a clear breakout of the inner descending trendline. Based on those items, IF we have a new local high, we will consider that a confirmation for the bullish movement.
Thanks for reading!
April's FoolsIf you think the bond threat is over; it's not. It's you think the chopping is done; it ain't.
It's puzzling to me that the bond market hears another 2 trillion is going out the door and it's complacent with that. I guess because it's all "paid for" by 2 trillion in taxes over 15 years (it won't be). Meanwhile, the market hears that corporate taxes are going up and decides that it's time to celebrate.
Only one of these things can be true. And either the market is watching bond yields too closely so as not to notice taxes, or envisioning what 2 trillion in infrastructure money looks like and deciding that it can compensate for the tax increase somewhere down the road.
It wasn't just that the market blazed ahead without really digesting the new possibilities. It's that it saw a rotation back into the same old tech plays and memery that everyone rotated out of. huh.
Anyways, Gold GLD is looking pretty good, Retail Trade is looking overbought, and Consumer Staples is looking weak in the face of tech resurgence.
Opening (IRA): GLD July 16th 145 Short Put... for a 1.38/contract credit.
Notes: Here, I'm looking to establish a GLD position and/or acquire shares via short put ladder. Currently, I've got the April 16th 164's, May 21st 155's, and June 18th 149's in addition to this rung. I'm looking to acquire shares, so am fine with getting assigned and selling call against as part of a portfolio largely consisting of broad market (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA), treasuries/bonds (TLT, HYG, EMB, AGG), and precious metals (SLV, GLD).
GOLD continuous downtrendingContinuous down trending for GOLD.
If the price will close under the lower forecast line (line from recent lower to cloud with a 25 days distance) we can expect the price to continue to go down.
Also we need a confirmation by ichimoku with a descending cloud and conversation line.
As next relevant price area we can consider the previous low and a range between 1630 and 1600.
GOLD NEXT WEEK #12Forecast:
If momentum is strong this week, target's ~1762 and ~1785 before correction, but if price action develops truncation @ ~1755 and reverses, target's @ ~1714 - 1709ish.
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's
- $DXY and US10/30yr bonds and yields
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
GOLD NEXT WEEK #011Forecast:
See some upside for gold this week, but it all depends on how bond-market play's out. Targets @ ~1746 and ~1762.
Also; I briefly address market sentimet - why gold is not favorable at the moment.
Video time: 06:13
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold price for the coming week. I'll also follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics - Market sentiment, Gold Shares / ETF's A-z, $DXY and US10/30yr Bond Yield
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some Market Data.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
GLD comebackBased off my technical analysis GLD has been trading in between a channel the past few months. Recently, we saw GLD bounce off the lower end of the channel simultaneously reversing from an important resistance level at $157. This may suggest a reversal to the upper end around $169 in the coming few months. Finally, in support of the resistance at $169, volume profile shows high activity also at $169.
Gold: We have entered a bear cycle.This long-term chart of GLD reveals that we have entered the next bearish cycle for the Gold market. This cycle of the Gold market peaked a couple of months ago and seems to be following the same trend from the last cycle. In fact, if we use the fib-retracement tool to plot the pullback from the first pulldown from the peak, we can see that GLD has bounced up and found minor support on the 100% fib trend retracement line.
We can now expect a rise to the 61.8%-38.2% levels before falling down from there again. Be careful shorting puts or going long in those levels as we may never see another ATH for months if not years.
Trade Idea: Short GLD around $171-$180.
While it is unlikely for it to keep rising higher to new ATHs anytime soon, you can set stop-losses above at a comfortable level while leaving enough wiggle room. We can expect GLD and Gold to continue to fall from those $175 levels down below the $156 fib support, and then the 148 support area. Once the price breaks those levels, we can expect a high-velocity waterfall sell-off to the $136 support area, where we can also take some profits on the way. The key support area and the final price target is the parallel channel support around $107.5-$115, which we can expect to see in anywhere from 9 months to 5 years.
Golden Retriever GLDYea this could be pretty ugly if breaks here
Gold has walked on down to sub 1700....just broke after the Feb Jobs number down to 1690
Maybe this is the final flush out before Gold regains a bid on some inflation worries...
Though it really doesn't seem to care about that
Either way I'm getting long GLD calls here for a move back up towards 165 where there is a large open interest in the options market for March opex
If need be this trade will become a short credit spread real quick especially if USD shows continued strength
BOND YIELDS scary now? Rising way bk frm Aug 2020 (& GOLD down)What this chart shows... The treasury bond yield and the price of gold have a strong relationship in the long and medium terms (in inverse directions, hence the use of GLL UltraShort Gold ETF as a comparative measure - PURPLE line). Yields had been falling strongly, and gold price rising swiftly throughout 2019 and into 2020. After the initial Wuhan Virus shock, yields fell even lower and the price of gold rocketed to historical highs - their movements turned around together in early August 2020 (US10Y yield starting to pick up from Mon Aug 3, and gold starting falls from Fri Aug 7), and have been relentlessly moving like that from that date.
The US Dollar, which had been generally strengthening for over two years pre-Wuhan, flipped post-Wuhan; and has been weakening over most of the post-Wuhan period to date (despite weaker gold prices and strengthening US yields from early Aug as we have mentioned). Right on cue, within the first week of 2021 (particularly Jan 7), the USD belatedly began to move in the direction of continued higher yields (with an ever weaker gold price) - this was especially notable in the USDJPY yen and the USDEUR euro .
Despite a steep surge in bond yields and the USD for four trading sessions from Jan 7 (and accompanying erosion of the gold price), equity markets were not overly disturbed. But it is a further sustained spurt in bond yields from Feb 16, that has market commentators pointing the finger for the shock to the NASDAQ (IXIC - BLACK line). (Out of step, the USD actually weakened when considered against the USDEUR and the USDAUD from Feb 5 to Feb 25; but they seem to be following the storyline after that.)
⬆️✔️ Gold tested for supply: GC1! - is set up for buyHi i have another premium setup here on COMEX:GC1! .
In my last analysis i pointed on demand area where i expected bulls come in. it happened yesterdey successfully and price rejected lower levels below $1680. So now its tto long play on gold. My long setup is higlighted in chart.Target level is next potential supply zone at $1760 - $1780 level.
You can aplly this also for: AMEX:GLD , AMEX:NUGT , OANDA:XAUUSD
here is data for my trade:
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 1695.8
Stop Loss: 1666.2
Profit target: 1776.8
Time stop: 7 days
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