GOLD RALLY EXPECTEDBrand new inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. We could see a potential breakout to the upside from here.
GLD
GOLD sliding in sideways, breakout is coming!Looking at gold chart, you can see the clear accumulation before leg up. Target levels marked on chart. Good luck
Gold looks ripe to launch in April style - yet again!After MONTHS of waiting, consolidating and fake outs, Gold GC1! appears to have what it takes to launch a cenet breakout rally and continue its long term trend UPwards.
Given this at a time when USD 1.9T was dished out, and the next round of trillions in infrastructure spending, it forms the fundamental basis of the technical outlook.
On the Gold weekly chart, we see that price itself maintained well from the 1600 target I set out last year (or earlier)... a bullish indication, which is accentuated by the last 8 weeks of candlestick price action. a higher low and nice long tails encourage a recent higher high to test the 55EMA this coming week.
Then the RPM and MACD appear favourable for that 55EMA test.
Underlying these, we can also see that the Largest 8 Traders (lowest panel) have been increasing their holdings, almost halving the net short positions as prices dip below 1800.
The Daily Gold chart (right) shows the recent higher low action, and the technicals are also aligned for a rally good rally attempt with the MACD is just crossing over into bullish territory as prices break out of an immediate down trend line.
Look out for Gold from this week!
(Co-incidentally, it was two weeks two years ago at the end of April 2019 that I called for a bullish stance on Gold. Seems like it may be seasonal)
Gold is hated and I never liked it more.The weekly chart of gold is a giant cup and handle, looking extremely bullish. There is a double bottom that printed on the shorter term charts which is a good sign. Everyone hates gold right now which is a good sign it bottomed, similar to BTC at the 3k levels last bear market. Money printing is still continuing at a rapid rate so it's just a matter of time before gold busts back into its all time highs and people start to like it again.
Gold is getting ready to break the current trendGold is currently in a big downtrend that began back in August 2020.
Despite that, recently it has been forming a possible bottom. RSI is forming a bullish divergence that is pointing Gold going up.
I still want it to confirm it breaking through 163$, the red trendline and the 200WMA. It's going to be hard, it may take weeks, but if it can break those levels we can see Gold back at the ATH.
Until we see all that I am neutral.
Gold breaking those levels could also mean harder times for stocks and even Bitcoin.
I think it is key to watch in what direction will Gold break the current short term lateral movement.
Have fun and be careful out there!
Gold in a bullflag - completion nearbyResistance held twice and gold has resumed its uptrend. It is in a clear bull flag since August of 2020. The next move will likely be faster than people expect.
I lean bullish.
Target: 1850
Timeframe: Mid April - Mid May
This is not financial advice.
The Global Financial Crisis 2008. Why long term wins pt1 I give some background on me learning the markets
some brutal harsh lessons
and why ETF's like the SPY & GLD are awesome!
GOLD NEXT WEEK #14Forecast:
If price action follows up on the Truncation/Double bottom pattern, then we can expect a countertrend ABC / Zigzag pattern. B-wave, pull back target's between ~1712 or ~1699. Final bullish C-wave, target's @ ~1776 or ~1787.
If price action picks up bearish sentiment and breaks low of ~1678, then target's to look for @ ~1662 or ~1655.
I'll keep you posted... Trade safe, be well
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's, $DXY and US10/30yr bonds and yields
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
Rolling (IRA): GLD April 21st 164 Short Put to May 21st 163... for a 1.26/contract credit.
Notes: Strike improving a little bit here while collecting a credit with 10 days to go in the April contract. Total credits collected of 3.97/contract with a cost basis of 159.03.
We are ready for a new bullish movement on XAUUSD -Hypothesis: The price is about to start a new bullish movement IF we have the confirmation of the price reaching the green line.
-If the price does not reach the green line, we will not consider our Hypothesis Active.
-Invalidation level: Redline, this means that if the price does not reach our green line, we will consider that the hypothesis is no longer valid / Also, if the price reaches the green line, and then a new local low happens (Redline) we will consider our Hypothesis to be wrong.
-Expected target: 1950,00
-Risk-free level: 1860.00 This means that if the price goes in the expected direction and reaches 1860.00, we will move our stop loss to the entry level.
Possible duration of the movement: 5 to 12 weeks
Technical Explanation: The price is on a convergence zone (Ascending trendline + Key Support level + Cloned channel of the Flag pattern). After a clear rejection on the level (double bottom pattern), we saw a clear breakout of the inner descending trendline. Based on those items, IF we have a new local high, we will consider that a confirmation for the bullish movement.
Thanks for reading!
April's FoolsIf you think the bond threat is over; it's not. It's you think the chopping is done; it ain't.
It's puzzling to me that the bond market hears another 2 trillion is going out the door and it's complacent with that. I guess because it's all "paid for" by 2 trillion in taxes over 15 years (it won't be). Meanwhile, the market hears that corporate taxes are going up and decides that it's time to celebrate.
Only one of these things can be true. And either the market is watching bond yields too closely so as not to notice taxes, or envisioning what 2 trillion in infrastructure money looks like and deciding that it can compensate for the tax increase somewhere down the road.
It wasn't just that the market blazed ahead without really digesting the new possibilities. It's that it saw a rotation back into the same old tech plays and memery that everyone rotated out of. huh.
Anyways, Gold GLD is looking pretty good, Retail Trade is looking overbought, and Consumer Staples is looking weak in the face of tech resurgence.
𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $GDX Weekly. Upside CaseHas been in this channel for sometime now. Tested key level in 31s and blue TL. Over 35-36 and we could see a pop into the 40s
$GDXJ $GLD $SLV $GC_F $SI_F $NUGT $DUST $DXY #Trading
Gold-Silver-Ratio backtesting breakdownWe might be looking at a backtest of the breakdown here, which would imply that the Gold/Silver Ratio is going to head lower if the previous support turned resistance holds.
DXY one more marginal high then roll overI think DXY can stretch to 96.4 or so, then we are at major resistance and could pullback, helping push crypto+metals+commodities upwards. We've been bullish since the lows so let's see...
Opening (IRA): GLD July 16th 145 Short Put... for a 1.38/contract credit.
Notes: Here, I'm looking to establish a GLD position and/or acquire shares via short put ladder. Currently, I've got the April 16th 164's, May 21st 155's, and June 18th 149's in addition to this rung. I'm looking to acquire shares, so am fine with getting assigned and selling call against as part of a portfolio largely consisting of broad market (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA), treasuries/bonds (TLT, HYG, EMB, AGG), and precious metals (SLV, GLD).
Goldaholics Anonymous Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this.
1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency.
3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we understood it.
4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of our finances.
5. Admitted to Peter Schiff, Lyn Alden, and Pomp the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have big, fat Gains.
7. Humbly asked to avoid getting short squeezed.
8. Made a list of all the naysayers about to be harmed.
9. Sent direct messages to them to gloat in victory.
10. Continued to count our gains and polish our bullion.
11. Sought through fundamental and technical analysis to improve our entries and exits.
12. Having had a financial awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other goldaholics, and practice these principles in all of our trades.
Macro Fibonacci
Below we can see the magic of Fibonacci extensions, measuring the last macro bull run to the 2016 low.
Zooming in a bit, it is clear that these levels attract attention. Each one of these fibs acts as a step in the staircase. All we need to do is look at volume and price action to validate each level. The smart money had their sell orders at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The 0.5 could not hold which indicates that the next level down will be tested. Watch for heavy volume to come in there near the 0.382 level.
In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading.
Historical Price Action
Looking back to the last bull run there are a few simple patterns to watch for...
1. Weekly MACD flailing around above the zero level.
2. Mark the down trends and wait for the break.
3. Price action is above the 20 Week EMA.
Trading Setup
Using historical price action the trading setup becomes clear...
1. Weekly MACD is flailing above the zero level.
2. The down trend line is clear. Wait for the break.
3. Wait for 20 Week EMA support.
Now, the targets are the Fibonacci levels above, and the ghost bars look reasonable, however, it would be wise to take a look at what exactly is driving Gold on this path.
The U.S. Dollar
The Dollar index inversely pressures Gold prices so this is worth noting.
1. Momentum is shifting bullish as a bullish MACD divergence reveals itself on the daily chart.
2. This recent move was the 3rd wave down which often precedes a reversal.
3. The index is at the bottom of this future channel.
As this index recovers back towards the 200 Week EMA, it will surely scare the metals market. However, the macro downtrend is only on it's first wave down. From a technical standpoint, the second wave is often the deepest as panic sets in from the failed recovery.
Treasury Yields
Yields recently had a similar bullish MACD divergence with a very weak recovery that followed. The trend is still clear and it's highly likely to roll over as it timidly approaches the trendline in the coming months. Gold has been riding along side Bonds so this should continue to drive up prices. Depending on the severity of falling yields, it could trigger temporary crashes in the metals. But longer term, buying the dips is the way to go.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long
Bullion: Gold, Silver, Platinum
Equities: GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, RIO, SPPP
Futures: (Not yet)
GOLD continuous downtrendingContinuous down trending for GOLD.
If the price will close under the lower forecast line (line from recent lower to cloud with a 25 days distance) we can expect the price to continue to go down.
Also we need a confirmation by ichimoku with a descending cloud and conversation line.
As next relevant price area we can consider the previous low and a range between 1630 and 1600.
GOLD - An IntroductionChecking in on Gold to see if there is a correlation to BTC. It is in the wake of Diamond that broke bear with a hint of an inverse H&S on the longer frame.
GOLD NEXT WEEK #12Forecast:
If momentum is strong this week, target's ~1762 and ~1785 before correction, but if price action develops truncation @ ~1755 and reverses, target's @ ~1714 - 1709ish.
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's
- $DXY and US10/30yr bonds and yields
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
Gold (AUD)- log chart long termGold (AUD) log long term chart. If ascending wedge fails to the downside, it is hello yellow support line.
GOLD NEXT WEEK #011Forecast:
See some upside for gold this week, but it all depends on how bond-market play's out. Targets @ ~1746 and ~1762.
Also; I briefly address market sentimet - why gold is not favorable at the moment.
Video time: 06:13
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold price for the coming week. I'll also follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics - Market sentiment, Gold Shares / ETF's A-z, $DXY and US10/30yr Bond Yield
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some Market Data.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
Another 15% + on this re-open bull before Friday! Massive BULL!!From a T/A point of view this has another 15% rally in it before a sell off! HUGE volume in this monster this week!
