Gold snooked many... Previously mentioned that Gold was in a downtrend... and despite a December rally that started a lot of Gold-to-the-sky talk, I had doubts and hence, no update post as I was patiently observing. Friday proved my suspicion correct as Gold dropped well below the 1900 level after breaking above 1950 for a day. The Friday Gold drop wiped out the month of December's gains in a day. Big hint here.
Nonetheless, one of the major reasons for being suspicious about the rally was that the Top 8 traders were obviously selling Gold, not buying.
The bottom most panel (yellow line indicator chart) is the Top 8 Net positions.
From May to June 2020, the Top 8 traders were accumulating already. And when the non-commercials started joining in the accumulation party, Gold prices took off.
December 2020, the Gold rally was supported by retail and clearly, non-commercials (until Christmas). However, it is clearly observable that the Top 8 Traders were distributing instead.
Over and above that, technicals show that Gold has a trend change, and needed to consolidate first. MACD was in bearish territory, and price just bounced off 1800 support and channel support despite that there was a large harami type candlestick pattern indicating a couple weeks of Gold rally in December. Well, that has ended... promptly.
This week, we saw a break out of channel resistance, and then failure of that break out. Bad news... this typically suggest a breakout on the other side to follow.
This can be targeted to be around Feb, at about 1650, if it were to plummet over the next few weeks. Probable at this point as the massive bearish engulfing (after channel breakout failure) is strongly suggesting... I expect to see some small bounce, followed by more of a dive in Gold over the next two to three weeks. Breaking down and out of the channel support represents good opportunities to look for a trend change (back to bull trend).
Oh wait... there is a BRB system buy signal, which I intend to discretionarily ignore for now. Perhaps take into consideration IF there is a bounce off the 55EMA in about two weeks.
Anyways... Do see my following post about the USD (and the GDX too). It spiked, and contributed to Gold dropping fast on Friday.
GLD
Gold Futuresthe base of the channel is 6% or 7% bellow from now
the market will still medium term bullish if we don't break the low of the channel
When he broked 1850 level, market gone to 1828 zone area and this area was rejected, he don't consolidated there. This means that this selloff was impulsive, and not to change the direction off Gold.
If breaks 1800 we can go to 1774, but we still Medium term Bullish.
On Last 4h candle I see maybe a reverse of the fall, maybe 1828 was impulsive and we can go now above 1870 and maybe 1896. If we can cross 1894 we have confirmation for an uptrend again.
For me now, the best zones to buy will be 1800-1830 if 1800 didn't break or above 1870.
Sell if breaks 1800. But 1774 can hold the drop.
But I think that on lowterm perspective we have already signs for up. But on 1h and 4h we still bearish, we need confirmation above 1870 to change this scenario.
Gold still in downtrend channel. Targets $1700..Gold had a nice rally in recent weeks but has faced major resistance and selling pressure at $1950-60 range again along with a downside break of the recent trendline.
Along with a breakout in US interest rate yields and an unstoppable rally in equities, the dog days for gold seem to be coming around again now.
Long Gold..Taking a long COMEX Gold (GC) position here as seasonal strength coupled with a nice bounce from oversold conditions along with long term EMAs still showing bull market is alive and well. Gold looks good for a 2-4 month swing trade here and will plan to sell once it gets back to overbought conditions again (90+ Stochastic). Stop is just under last week's swing low..
Swing Trade: Barrick Gold Corp.(GOLD) breakout setup 📈Hi fellows, just one of my today swingtrades:
Nice setup for breakout .
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 24,80
Stop Loss: 23,83
Profit target: 27.73
Time stop: 5 days
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Gold is shining ☀️: Breakout of falling channel, Big Bull FlagGold had very strong move yesterday and broke up the falling channel which is very huge bull flag. Right now price approaching supply zone.
There is two posible scanarios:
As you see drawed in chart, 1st scenario is pull back to retest higher edge of the falling channel and fibo level 0.236 (@1914.2) and then continuation in direction of bull trend.
2nd scanario more likely to happen, in my opinion will be a breakout the supply zone and then pull back to retest it.
My target is 0.5 fibo level @2082.1
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1/4 WATCHLIST + MARKET OUTLOOK** THIS IS PURELY OUR OPINION AND WE ARE NOT LIABLE FOR YOUR TRADING DECISIONS **
Happy New Year! Looking forward to the first trading session of 2021. Let's get to it!
If you've been following our analyses on TradingView, you'll know that we have been very bullish in the short-term, and that we believe we are about to experience (or in the midst of experiencing) the last phase of any bull cycle - a blow-off top . You can see in the image above that we've had this strong support line (red) since the coronavirus low. On Thursday, we closed above the major resistance (green trendline - which has actually now turned into support). This is a very bullish signal. As long as the red support line holds, we will maintain a bullish bias.
However, the market doesn't care about our opinion and will do what it wants. So we will trade the price action we see!
WATCHLIST
Note that these levels are for intraday options/equity trades. These are not swing levels.
MU calls over 75.70
TIGR calls over 8.5
SHOP puts under 1128
SQ puts under 214.25
COST calls over 377.45
PYPL calls over 235
ROKU puts under 330.75
TSLA calls over 720
WKHS puts under 19.7
ZM puts under 336
Lastly, we opened a position in GLD on Thursday - we will likely add to the position tomorrow with a break of 179.
Have a great week of trading!
GLD swing entryGLD is a gold etf, it has been consolidating in a bull flag for quite some time and i believe we see a large move upward in the next couple weeks as it just broke a major trend line. There has been plenty of governement spending recently and with Biden getting elected, we should see an increase in spending and stimulous. Any increase of supply in the USD will result in inflation and in turn, cause asset and commodity prices to rise. This is an excellent point to enter into a long term position in gold, whether in a gold ETF, mining companies, or futures; however, the entry im shoing in this video is to take advantage of a trend break and i believe that short term we should see a large rise in GLD.
GOLD MINERS GDX bearish tonesPlease see Chart... recent minor failures hint of bearish tones, and technicals are crossing down.
Overall, the equity markets are pushing higher on air and expecting a serious pullback soon, after a surprise trigger.
Gold prices are not moving despite USD weakening... this is bad for Gold, and Gold Miners particularly.
Once the USD jumps, and Gold drops, then the Gold Miners will be in double jeopardy.
I like GDX, but it is reeking of danger right now. I would be very wary IMHO...
GC - Inverse head and shoulders on dailyTrump just officially signed the relief bill, so DXY dropped 12 cents. Metals - Gold futures up .85% and SLV futures was up 3.5%. GC has possible bullish inverse head and shoulders on daily. The GLD etf has bullish Feb 2021 put/call options ratio of .22. GOLD - Barrick gold, Warren Buffett has stake in that. The most common fibonacci retracement is .50 , which is $1928 for GC. GL!
XAUUSD: Gold bottomed, buy it...I'll just leave this here, I leave the specifics to you, but I believe the selloff in Gold is over and it is about to resume the yearly timeframe uptrend.
My clients and me are long already, and looking to capitalize on this run since it is likely to outperform stocks together with most commodities going forward.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Watching Gold for a real breakout rally... or breakdown While many may be bullish on Gold in the short term, I find that Gold is acting a little off and weirdly too.
With a fiercely dropping USD, Gold is barely in demand (in the short term).
This tells of either a burst breakout rally or a slow breakdown as Gold has slowly creeped up in the last three weeks.
Having bounced off the initial downside target of 1800, Gold is marginally below 1900, and it just failed the downtrending channel resistance despite clocking a series of higher lows and higher highs.
Watch this one reveal its true colours... soon.
BTD on $GOLD $GLD $GDX $JNUG $GDXUWe got some good news on the Stim bill today but it hasn't passed FR FR yet.
The House and Senate will vote today on a roughly $900 billion pandemic relief package, with the White House saying President Donald Trump would sign it. The deal includes help for small businesses, the jobless and direct payments to most Americans. The bill that lawmakers will vote on will be attached to a $1.4 trillion measure to fund government operations through the end of the fiscal year. As part of the compromise needed to reach agreement, Democrats allowed a provision to be inserted that would prohibit the Federal Reserve from restarting a program supporting corporate bonds and small businesses due to expire Dec. 31. (no more ink/paper for Powell? )
GOLD- i talked about this a while back, I'm overall bullish on Gold/Gold miner because stimulus passed = more inflation = good for GOLD fundamentally.(yea i know, who cares)
$22.20 has been a nice buying opportunity for this company but you could use that area as stoploss as well.
Entry $22.20 area
Target $25.20
Target 2 $28.20
Stoploss 21.20
(DXY) What Really Is Driving Gold (Yields)There is much speculation across the investor universe about what influences Gold prices and vice versa. Today I will be focusing on the false theory that Gold prices lead treasury yields and that by extension, Gold signals market crashes.
The Financial Solar System
Taking a look at the chart it is clear that sometimes Gold prices parallel and slightly lead treasury yields. However, if we overlay the Dollar index it is astronomically clear that the only times that Gold does this is when the Dollar's gravitational pull temporarily alters Gold's trajectory. Gold prices at the root are inversely corelated with Treasury yields.
It is really that simple. The Treasury market is the Sun while Gold, the Dollar, and the Stock market are planets. As treasury yields ultimately dominate and inversely lead Gold prices, the Dollar acts as a secondary force.
Yields are the only pre-signal for Market crashes and it looks to me like another leg down is imminent. However, it also looks like the dollar is setting up for a relief rally which means Gold would plummet along side stocks before the Sun sling shots it to new highs.