GLD
Gold Rejected Again? Back to Lows?Not to beat a dead horse but Gold is back to try and test a breakout of the downtrend resistance it's been fighting since ATH back in August.
Made a couple attempts to break above overnight around 1917 spot Now kinda of treading water on the downtrend
DXY back on the lows...USD could rally from here and get a reaction out of GLD
Stimulus mostly priced in by now surely?
I'd fade any stimulus related pop and look for Gold to head back to those lows around 1860
Depending on whether or not GVX pops I may sell GLD Call Spreads but I prefer to just play it long GLD Puts and leg those in some sort of spread.
If GVX doesn't budge on a Gold pop that to me would be a tell its not going higher
Gold Pattern Recognition: New Uptrend StartingIdentifying patterns in gold can be highly evident if one knows where to look. Since gold is primarily driven by a select few (banks mostly), they tend to make their movements within the gold market in a similar fashion, even more so during bull markets.
We can identify 3 movements in the gold price during recent consolidation periods:
1. Price decline from spike high in a 5 peak/point formation
2. Downsloping support in a lower low fashion
3. Finally.. The "Basing" period before resuming the uptrend
This is in conjunction with sentiment in gold being usually bearish or neutral at the very least.
It would appear that the gold price is now in its 3rd basing period right here and now...
Gold breaking out again, but wait...The Gold GC1! Weekly chart shows a repeated pattern where a corrective wave forms a wedge and then breaks out.
This has had happened previously, and it is followed by a relatively strong bull rally. Also plotted are the net positions of the Non-Commercials and the Top 8 Traders, according to CFTC data. And again, it shows a repeated pattern where there is a breakout of Non-Commercials net positions (Orange line, lower panel) with a concomitant breakdown of Top 8 Traders net positions (Yellow line, lower panel). The cyan horizontal lines mark the week where the breakouts occur, and you can see the repeated pattern.
One observation is that in the last two times, MACD cross up occured after retracement to near the zero line. This time, all else appearing similar, the MACD is falling with momentum instead of crossing up. This could be an indicator to suggest that this breakout might be limited, and could be the last one before resumption of further downside. At this point, it is worth a cautionary note, which otherwise, appear to see Gold being on a bullish breakout.
GLD Decending Traingle? Swing and a MissBought on 9/16, broke the wrong way the very next day. Looked like a decent descending triangle. Looked like it was just starting to break above the top trend line.
Can someone hlep me with what I missed?
Seemed like the market was moving into Gold to offset some risk.
Had recently had a decent pullback.
It didn't turn out to be a good time to buy. Market went up, GLD went down. Market went down, GLD went down. SELL
Will the miners offer one more dip?I am wildly bullish on the miners and precious metals over the longer term but I suspect another corrective leg down. GDX has been forming a giant ascending wedge from 2013-2020 and just broke out of that pattern this year. The drop in March was just a small piece of that puzzle that flushed a lot of new & experienced traders out of the trade. I pointed out several times that it was potentially an extremely good buying opportunity. That turned out to be true and the miners have been one of my best trades this year. I'm not an expert on Elliott Wave Theory but I'm seeing what looks like 5 waves up that completed in August. Perhaps now price is still stuck in some type of correction before a much larger move takes place. Take note of the red flag on my lower indicator. There's clearly a trend there and price has not dropped enough to complete another touch. There's no rule that says it must but it's just something to watch. Be patient. Be smart. Do YOUR OWN homework. Follow price. Ignore emotion... and get ready!
GOLD - 4 Hour - My ThoughtsHello friend, Andrew here, Here is my out look on Gold. Yes, how about Gold coins...lol.
I didn't give a detailed breakdown of why I feel Gold will take these routes, because I do not Chart Gold for the public. But, I do give routes and a possible direction... Hope this helps, make your own stops as required. If you follow me for any length of time, you'll know I ALWAYS say, set your stops and take profits.
Please let me know what you guys think and if you feel i should include Gold in our chart list...
I am not an investment adviser, I Chart.
Thank you and again , please comment, like and follow.
US500
OPENING (IRA): GLD OCT/NOV/DEC 164/168/172 SHORT PUT LADDER... for a 5.69 credit total.
Notes: Amazingly (or not), I have no gold in my retirement account.
Although I feel I'm somewhat late to the game, taking up a position here in an instrument with excellent options liquidity. For smaller accounts, consider SLV, which also has the added benefit of having higher background implied (SLV: 69.4% versus GLD: 26.4%) or one of the miners (GDX, GDXJ).
As with my other acquisitional setups, run to expiry/approaching worthless and if assigned shares, proceed to sell call against.
Long Options Trading: GLD Buy Call $181.5 Exp: 10/09Understanding The trade:
As an options trader my goal is to identify trend change and utilize a breakout strategy to leverage profit off of major trend changes with minimal risk. Even though this contract does not expire till 10/09 I will be looking to take profit by October 6th as the rate of decay factor starts to come into play as the contract approaches expiry. This should correlate nicely with the downward sloping trend that has been resistance since August 17th. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment below and follow. Thank you and trade safe.
Reasons For Trade:
• Following upward trending channel
• Weakness in the USD Dollar after Trump announces he and his wife have COVID-19
• RSI validation on rejection of a break lower
Trade Parameters:
• Broker: Robinhood
• Cost For Entry: Free
• Contracts: 1
• Entry Price: .69
• Risk: $69
• Reward: $138
• ROI: 100%
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1