Update on Gold Price ActionGold broke down from its pennant yesterday and hit first support at $1880. Price remains in a bull flag, but a break below $1875 should see a quick drop to $1800, which would be a backtest of the entire breakout.
GLD
$GLD Wedge Fake-Break LowThe first break of a range type formation is almost always a failure. This can be amplified even more if that fake-break goes against the larger trend which, in this case, it does. Buyers have a LOT of reasons to look for continuation up and a higher low would be a great ticket to the show.
Descending Triangle or Bullish Flag for Gold?Gold is trading in a noticeable Bullish Flag or Descending Triangle, and the RSI is displaying a similar pattern as well as the KST.
On the KST there's possibly a Triple Bottom and a Bullish cross happening on the third bottom, we'll have a better understanding of the third bottom if it remains a higher low in the upcoming trading days/weeks.
If the KST gets doesn't create a higher high & gets rejected at the blue downward sloping line Gold will start looking worrisome "if" the trend continues as suggested with the green line I've drawn to represent "potential" future price action.
If we see the KST develop like the blue line I've drawn Gold will look much healthier from a bullish perspective.
Gold - 50% RetracementBased on the strength of the US Dollar ($DXY) and the movement of gold, it looks like it could be retracing back to the $1765 area. $DXY $GLD $XAUUSD $XAGUSD $SLV
Another fake-out to the downside for GOLD?Gold is trading in a multi month descending triangle that just broke to the downside, keep in mind this pattern has been moderately adjusted since my last because Gold broke out bullishly to the upside, but has since corrected rather drastically, that was a sneaky fake-out to the upside.
If the green line of support doesn't hold the dark red line below is the next significant support area, and if that dark red line holds Gold will create a similar pattern just larger.
The KST is looking worrisome, as I suggested in my previous post, we have seen the blue downward sloping resistance come into play, I guess the
the next few weeks will determine the final outcome of this pattern if the upward baseline of support holds.
The KST did cross bearishly recently, hence the reason for the green line sharply crossing over the red downward, coinciding with a decrease in price.
The RSI is in a spot where we've seen previous bullish bounces, will history repeat itself? I've placed a green question mark icon to indicate where we will likely see a bounce.
Gold test to $1875-$1900, then LIFT OFF!Pattern recognition in gold can be quite useful at times. Especially when gold is in a consolidation phase as it in right now. It would seem that gold wants to make a final test of the $1875-$1900 area before strong buyers step in to take the gold price higher into the final quarter of the year. Once this consolidation has completed, there is usually $300+ of upside to be had from the top price of the consolidation range. Should the same pattern repeat, we would see a gold price of about $2350-$2400+ by end of 2020...
GDX just giving way...Tracking gold, one can buy GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, and the associated specific funds.
Having tracked Gold closely for the past three years, the white arrow marks a rough but a real exit point.
Today the perfect storm is set... and pre-opening shows a gap down type of breakdown.
Previously explained why and how GDX would not be doing well and when it should be doing well. IMHO, This is probably a deep retracement.
Fun times to come!
Here it goes part II.
Time to sell silver for Goldi definitely believe this is the time we have to sell silver for more Gold. it is struggling to surpass the green pivot point . Meaning i do not think it is going to lower the silver price any time soon. . Also it has already broken out of the red pivot point. i was looking at the overall silver analysis and i believe another bull market is potentially on the way. This ratio is just proving it . silver is going to cost more resulting in a lower gold silver ratio. Im buying silver now before it makes another big move. Please leave some feedback! Are you buying or not ?
Gold has an early indication of potential breakout rallyThe week ended with Gold going nowhere, but early indications suggest a possible potential breakout rally.
Compare the current setup with the previous setup and entry (white arrow), the technicals appear similar yet again, as well as candlestick pattern shows a bullish harami... just like a coiling pattern.
Having said that, being very wary about this imminent (and yet to be confirmed breakout) as the higher time frame suggest a toppish area about 2100, and an expected handle pattern to form (faint yellow line).
Meanwhile, the breakout range spans 1930 to 1980.
Perhaps other aspects might be giving some insights, especially the USD?
Watch for it.
Gold Trust GLD updateStill expecting another low in ~160 range. Watching for possibility that it has turned bullish. It looks better than SLV does off recent bottom.
Gold Sitting at EquilibriumSince mid-August, sales in the physical precious metals market – red hot at the peak of the COVID outbreak – have begun to taper off slightly. This slowing of demand is directly correlated to price action. I will focus on gold specifically.
A closeup of the gold chart shows a narrowing and tightly wound price coil of lower highs and higher lows. This narrowing trading range has formed a symmetrical triangle (pennant formation) that probabilistically favors a move in the direction of the underlying trend (60/40). At present, the equilibrium in the market is notable: price is sandwiched between the anchored VWAP (volume-weighted average price) from the August high to the August low, slightly above the 50-day moving average. Price remains in the center of a price channel formed by the March high/low. Relative Strength (RSI) is static at 50, right in the middle of its range. Periods of tightening price equilibrium and consolidation are healthy in uptrending markets as the market digests new prices. As we approach the apex of this coil, gold appears to be setting up for a very big move.
The downside risk remains on a break of $1930 to $1880, and then possibly a full retest of the breakout at $1800. At present, this looks less likely to me. Meanwhile, a breakout would setup gold on a path to $2300. Resolution coming soon, likely late September/early October.
Gold to 2500 USDNice confluence of fib extensions/projections at $2,500.00 USD. Also terminates right at the upper band of the trend from 1980 and 2011 (not drawn) when viewed on a log scale. I believe gold is finishing up a symmetrical triangle from early Aug. '20, and before continuing it's parabolic move up. If so, get ready for some fireworks!
𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $DXY Daily. Basing for a BottomHas been consolidating and IMO basing for a bottom. Rejected breakout though so may need more time. Stay flexible 🤸🏼
$UUP $EURUSD $USDJPY $EEM $GLD $BTC $TNX $TLT $SPY $QQQ #Trading #Currencies 💱
Microanalysis on Gold failureLooks like Gold broke down on the hourly chart with a double top thing at the triangle wedge resistance.
Looking for the bottom support of the triangle wedge...
The run up appeared very bullish for a bit but one should wait for firm breakout.
Loooks like the next two weeks would be volatile, either up or down.
Inflation + GLD ($GLD $DXY $Sil $SPY #Gold #SPY)see full chart & Follow at www.tradingview.com
A while back, you may see me call the top on Gold because it was up 25% in the last 12 months. while market was only 7%.
Some things have changed since then, Gold came back down a bit, The FED (FOMC & Powell) have declared they would let inflation run wild.
Interesting pattern on Gold, as market is starting to dip. we may get a slight bounce opportunity on GLD, as people panic and move into gld as hedge.
What's my play?
I will probably sell GLD puts at $179 to collect options premiums.
What's the significance of this?
KEY TAKEAWAYS About Gold
-Gold has long been considered a durable store of value and a hedge against inflation .
-Over the long run, however, both stocks and bonds have outperformed the price increase in gold , on average.
-Nevertheless, over certain shorter time spans, gold may come out ahead.
Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds
When evaluating the performance of gold as an investment over the long term, it really depends on the time period being analyzed. For example, over a 30-year period, stocks and bonds have outperformed gold , and over a 15-year period, gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.
$GLD Continues to Act Right for Bull ContinuationGLD -- Gold -- appears to have defended against the descending triangle breakdown potential with a new round of buying/support above $1900/178.
Now, a squeeze through the sloped resistance line is likely.
GOLD/SILVER RATIO UPDATEThanks for viewing,
Initially posted in 2019.
I was a buyer of silver bullion since silver crossed the 80 mark. That included adding significantly to the holdings during the steep drop earlier in the year.
It hasn't always been a comfortable trade, but it has worked out rather well to date.
What I expect next is, despite continuing tail-winds for bullion, the G/S ratio will head back towards the 50 line of the RSI/MACD. So both gold and silver will continue to gain as the money printing / negative nominal and real yields on bonds / geopolitical uncertainty / record-breaking government deficits / shortages of physical bullion etc environment continues (I expect at least 4 out of these 5 conditions to continue for at least 5 - 10 years). Silver will continue to gain at about a 2:1 ratio to gold despite overall % gains slowing down somewhat for a time (smaller, less liquid market). So the G/S ratio will level-off for a while before head further down - I HOPE to 45 or below - at which point I will sell silver and purchase (more) gold.
Silver is a swing trade only as a way to gain more physical gold. I have actually bought my first silver ETF this week (my silver holdings are less than 1% ETF and gold is 0% ETF). Sorry I digress, I a strong aversion of bullion ETFs and would be very uncomfortable with any significant portion of my bullion allocation being in ETF form - if you don't hold it in your hand, it isn't yours). Gold isn't a trade and I would be unlikely to ever willingly part with it and will probably continue to add to holdings (even at much higher prices) for a very long time. Gold is unsurance, money par excellence, and the best way to hedge holding a weak base currency.
If it all works out I will end up with well over twice (by weight) the amount of gold (almost 3:1 for some purchases earlier in 2020), as compared to the amount of gold I could have bought at the time I purchased the silver. I'm just using silver as leverage against gold. Medium term, an $80+ price is on the cards (yes I know that sounds rather speculative right now) and at a 1/45 ratio that would imply a gold price of only $3,600 an ounce. Remember both BofA and Goldman expect a $3000+ gold price before the end of 2021, so my trade could realistically be completed in 2021-22 (I set a 2-5 year time horizon on this trade in 2019). On a bit longer 5+ year time horizon, $5000/oz gold is more likely than not at the moment. Of course, that implies a significantly weaker USD - but we are already starting that journey as well.
Protect those funds (and your bullion).
Ascending triangle, needs to close above 1957Major support at 1900. There has been October/November options flow purchased last week for gold stocks; WPM, GOLD and GLD. FOMC decision is on wednesday and expect more dovishness from JPowell. Longer lower rates, until a vaccine is approved. Trump wants a lower dollar as well, so its all working out for his election needs.
