GLD
The Metals are looking HEAVY - Getting Long GLD Again2H chart in GLD fires off an Extreme Turn Buy at 175. Targeting visible range POC 183 area.
GLD OCT 177/183 Bull Call 1.70db
As always, we keep the management of directional options simple:
Risk = 50% of premium paid
Target = 2x Risk
Long FCX ( $GLD $FCX #GOLD $GC1! $GC_F $Spy $GOLD $XME)see full chart at www.tradingview.com
FCX
Entry $15
Target 1 $17
Target 2 $20
stoploss $13
Why?
Why it is a buy?
Stimulus bill #2 will eventually come out by 2021, Along with FOMC mentioning that they will allow inflation to run wild. what that means is that, the fundamental value of GOLD and other minerals will increase in price. While everyone is focus on gold, and silver, they are missing out on Copper. so I think it is defiantly an laggard and we could catch a nice buying opportunity still.
Who are they?
Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. engages in the mining of copper, gold, and molybdenum. It operates through the following segments: North America Copper Mines; South America Mining; Indonesia Mining; Molybdenum Mines; Rod and Refining; Atlantic Copper Smelting and Refining; and Corporate, Other, and Eliminations. The North America Copper Mines segment operates open-pit copper mines in Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita and Miami in Arizona; and Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico. The South America Mining segment includes Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The Indonesia Mining segment handles the operations of Grasberg minerals district that produces copper concentrate that contains significant quantities of gold and silver. The Molybdenum Mines segment includes the Henderson underground mine and Climax open-pit mine, both in Colorado. The Rod and Refining segment consists of copper conversion facilities located in North America, and includes a refinery, rod mills, and a specialty copper products facility. The Atlantic Copper Smelting and Refining segment smelts and refines copper concentrate and markets refined copper and precious metals in slimes. The Corporate, Other, and Eliminations segment consists of other mining and eliminations, oil and gas operations, and other corporate and elimination items. The company was founded by James R. Moffett on November 10, 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, AZ.
Gold ready to rally???Gold hanging in there. Looks possible that gold may have finished a zig zag with a Wave C = 0.786*Wave A. Note that the RSI is just about in the oversold just like it did several months back. That level of oversold is just about right for a bull market. It could also run a bit more sideways to make a more convention descending wedge pattern. I also think the S&P is going to make a small drop this week before a medium rally corrective Wave B. If that is true, that would give a nice up, down, then break out for gold, just like a standard falling wedge.
If gold and the dollar like to be inverse of each other, then my DXY chart looks like the dollar maybe peaking and read for a big move down.
Gold since 2011
Gold $2150 - $2250 Near TermProposed Wave 5 will take price to 2150 to 2250 above previous highs into the end of 2020
Microanalysis of Gold (hourly)To bounce to 1910-1920...
Bullish MACD divergence on hourly chart, and downside extended. So need to test, and perhaps fail the resistance.
Good Old Gold- The Fibonacci Extension from the previous bull run should continue to be the frame for Gold's price action moving forward.
- OBV (On Balance Volume) on the macro level is trending upward indicating that the buying pressure outweighs selling pressure.
- OBV on the 4hr chart shows the recent sell off has corrected back down to a level where buying pressure should start to pick up.
- Between the 0.618 and 0.5 fib levels is a great place to accumulate a long position.
Long MGC +1 @ $1,880.70
Gold - Ruh roh it is that a bearish descending triangle?Starting to lose support and looking like a descending triangle. I really thought it was going to stay up there, but not looking good.
GOLD SUPPORT?Thanks for viewing,
Short-term short view (not shorting), then long again.
I can't see a very good reason for a gold correction other than;
- Everything needs to correct - it's never a straight-line move,
- It is possible that big banks (possibly even the Custodians for major gold ETFs) are being forced to sell-off reserve assets to cover losses or to put aside as contingencies for what look like to be a future MAJOR banking investigation and likely hefty fines,
- The drop will get deeper due to short-term traders using excessive leverage (massive inflow in 2020 of inexperienced traders won't help).
But, its not like US government debt, the US Federal Reserve balance sheet, massive money printing, global move away from the USD, or 10 year treasury yields (0.68%) suddenly got any better - so I see no reason for me or anyone else to sell physical gold. This is just a gift to people with the ability to add to their positions really. Yes big institutions and traders will do their thing buying and selling paper gold, but you and me can buy and hold - which negates many of the advantages that major trading houses and hedge funds have over the "small guy."
But, even the small players want to know where the price drops are likely to end, so that they can add to their positions. BTFD and all that. So this is where I am targeting for my next buy, like always I don't know if I am right. So I got out my magic number 8 ball and gave it a shake.
My TA is just about looking for areas that "line up", areas that people using various methods of determining support and resistance will target. The more that line up the better.
So I looked at the 200MA (and extended it with great artistic skill and flair,
RSI - which on the daily time-frame is right on the 30 level,
support from previous recent price peaks,
Fibonacci extensions - assuming a 1:1 extension of wave C,
Fibonacci retracement, and I ended up with the blue box.
The smaller sliver blue box between 1800 - 1807 is what I am thinking as both the 1;1 extension and a 1.618 extension of what may be the start of wave C down. I will buy here and buy again if it goes lower. Now that the gold/silver ratio is above 80 again, I will also be adding to silver positions in the expectation that silver will again out-perform gold when / if the bull market continues.
If the $1800 doesn't hold then watch the 200MA / 0.5 Fib retracement and the recent price peaks to form the next area of strong support in the mid to high $1700s.
I see USD2200 as a low estimate for gold by the end of 2020. If you hold positions in bullion ETFs, seriously consider moving to using non-bank bullion vaults (like Bullionstar in Singapore www.bullionstar.com) with secure allocated, low cost, storage. ETFs take what is essentially a riskless asset and add in layers of counter-party risk (Trustees, Custodians, and many Sub-Custodians (that the Custodian does not have the right to audit)). Expect more news of issues with the paper markets and also with the Custodian for the SPDR Gold Trust GLD in 2020.
GLD LongGlD has started forming handle for a cup and handle pattern. Guys remember this is the last time GLD will be seen at that price. Bottom of the handle is what everyone needs to keep an eye on. When confirmed it is time to load and hedge against USD. Because as previously posted, today VIX has bounced heading up, USD is heading north and GLD and stocks are going down. Bonds slightly up too. Market is telling us something. Election debate will cause volatility but it is our only chance to let USD go and buy something else. Warren Buffett bought Barrick gold as a hedge against dollar. Because he believes in businesses and Barrick gold provides some dividends and price growth as gold rises so does the margin for miner. This is my opinion and not a financial advise. Please do not buy or sell any financial asset or any other asset reading this posts. These posts are for educational purposes.
GLD Gold Trust updateSaw a different possibility of bottom in C ~174 that I wanted to mention. Still could see lower ~160 to 169.
Gold - Still holding strongI am not sure what gold's long term outlook is, but it has been holding strong after the ATH rally. This morning was a really deep test, but the price rebound very quickly. I don't think there is much to worry about. Its normal to see these kind of tests to determine support. The fact it bounced back above support was promising. I would not be surprised if gold makes a break to the upside. Will have to see what the closing price is today.
USDx About to RIP. Goodbye Metals+Crypto+NasdaqThe DXY has put in a weekly TD9, and a massive divergence across daily to 5 day timeframes. Whether we dip marginally lower to 90.50 first, I don't know. But the US dollar index is about to be king again. Expect a 3+ point move within days.
Update on Gold Price ActionGold broke down from its pennant yesterday and hit first support at $1880. Price remains in a bull flag, but a break below $1875 should see a quick drop to $1800, which would be a backtest of the entire breakout.
$GLD Wedge Fake-Break LowThe first break of a range type formation is almost always a failure. This can be amplified even more if that fake-break goes against the larger trend which, in this case, it does. Buyers have a LOT of reasons to look for continuation up and a higher low would be a great ticket to the show.
Descending Triangle or Bullish Flag for Gold?Gold is trading in a noticeable Bullish Flag or Descending Triangle, and the RSI is displaying a similar pattern as well as the KST.
On the KST there's possibly a Triple Bottom and a Bullish cross happening on the third bottom, we'll have a better understanding of the third bottom if it remains a higher low in the upcoming trading days/weeks.
If the KST gets doesn't create a higher high & gets rejected at the blue downward sloping line Gold will start looking worrisome "if" the trend continues as suggested with the green line I've drawn to represent "potential" future price action.
If we see the KST develop like the blue line I've drawn Gold will look much healthier from a bullish perspective.
Gold - 50% RetracementBased on the strength of the US Dollar ($DXY) and the movement of gold, it looks like it could be retracing back to the $1765 area. $DXY $GLD $XAUUSD $XAGUSD $SLV
Another fake-out to the downside for GOLD?Gold is trading in a multi month descending triangle that just broke to the downside, keep in mind this pattern has been moderately adjusted since my last because Gold broke out bullishly to the upside, but has since corrected rather drastically, that was a sneaky fake-out to the upside.
If the green line of support doesn't hold the dark red line below is the next significant support area, and if that dark red line holds Gold will create a similar pattern just larger.
The KST is looking worrisome, as I suggested in my previous post, we have seen the blue downward sloping resistance come into play, I guess the
the next few weeks will determine the final outcome of this pattern if the upward baseline of support holds.
The KST did cross bearishly recently, hence the reason for the green line sharply crossing over the red downward, coinciding with a decrease in price.
The RSI is in a spot where we've seen previous bullish bounces, will history repeat itself? I've placed a green question mark icon to indicate where we will likely see a bounce.
Gold test to $1875-$1900, then LIFT OFF!Pattern recognition in gold can be quite useful at times. Especially when gold is in a consolidation phase as it in right now. It would seem that gold wants to make a final test of the $1875-$1900 area before strong buyers step in to take the gold price higher into the final quarter of the year. Once this consolidation has completed, there is usually $300+ of upside to be had from the top price of the consolidation range. Should the same pattern repeat, we would see a gold price of about $2350-$2400+ by end of 2020...
GDX just giving way...Tracking gold, one can buy GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, and the associated specific funds.
Having tracked Gold closely for the past three years, the white arrow marks a rough but a real exit point.
Today the perfect storm is set... and pre-opening shows a gap down type of breakdown.
Previously explained why and how GDX would not be doing well and when it should be doing well. IMHO, This is probably a deep retracement.
Fun times to come!
Here it goes part II.
Time to sell silver for Goldi definitely believe this is the time we have to sell silver for more Gold. it is struggling to surpass the green pivot point . Meaning i do not think it is going to lower the silver price any time soon. . Also it has already broken out of the red pivot point. i was looking at the overall silver analysis and i believe another bull market is potentially on the way. This ratio is just proving it . silver is going to cost more resulting in a lower gold silver ratio. Im buying silver now before it makes another big move. Please leave some feedback! Are you buying or not ?
