Gold - Still holding strongI am not sure what gold's long term outlook is, but it has been holding strong after the ATH rally. This morning was a really deep test, but the price rebound very quickly. I don't think there is much to worry about. Its normal to see these kind of tests to determine support. The fact it bounced back above support was promising. I would not be surprised if gold makes a break to the upside. Will have to see what the closing price is today.
GLD
$GLD Wedge Fake-Break LowThe first break of a range type formation is almost always a failure. This can be amplified even more if that fake-break goes against the larger trend which, in this case, it does. Buyers have a LOT of reasons to look for continuation up and a higher low would be a great ticket to the show.
Descending Triangle or Bullish Flag for Gold?Gold is trading in a noticeable Bullish Flag or Descending Triangle, and the RSI is displaying a similar pattern as well as the KST.
On the KST there's possibly a Triple Bottom and a Bullish cross happening on the third bottom, we'll have a better understanding of the third bottom if it remains a higher low in the upcoming trading days/weeks.
If the KST gets doesn't create a higher high & gets rejected at the blue downward sloping line Gold will start looking worrisome "if" the trend continues as suggested with the green line I've drawn to represent "potential" future price action.
If we see the KST develop like the blue line I've drawn Gold will look much healthier from a bullish perspective.
Another fake-out to the downside for GOLD?Gold is trading in a multi month descending triangle that just broke to the downside, keep in mind this pattern has been moderately adjusted since my last because Gold broke out bullishly to the upside, but has since corrected rather drastically, that was a sneaky fake-out to the upside.
If the green line of support doesn't hold the dark red line below is the next significant support area, and if that dark red line holds Gold will create a similar pattern just larger.
The KST is looking worrisome, as I suggested in my previous post, we have seen the blue downward sloping resistance come into play, I guess the
the next few weeks will determine the final outcome of this pattern if the upward baseline of support holds.
The KST did cross bearishly recently, hence the reason for the green line sharply crossing over the red downward, coinciding with a decrease in price.
The RSI is in a spot where we've seen previous bullish bounces, will history repeat itself? I've placed a green question mark icon to indicate where we will likely see a bounce.
Gold test to $1875-$1900, then LIFT OFF!Pattern recognition in gold can be quite useful at times. Especially when gold is in a consolidation phase as it in right now. It would seem that gold wants to make a final test of the $1875-$1900 area before strong buyers step in to take the gold price higher into the final quarter of the year. Once this consolidation has completed, there is usually $300+ of upside to be had from the top price of the consolidation range. Should the same pattern repeat, we would see a gold price of about $2350-$2400+ by end of 2020...
GDX just giving way...Tracking gold, one can buy GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, and the associated specific funds.
Having tracked Gold closely for the past three years, the white arrow marks a rough but a real exit point.
Today the perfect storm is set... and pre-opening shows a gap down type of breakdown.
Previously explained why and how GDX would not be doing well and when it should be doing well. IMHO, This is probably a deep retracement.
Fun times to come!
Here it goes part II.
Time to sell silver for Goldi definitely believe this is the time we have to sell silver for more Gold. it is struggling to surpass the green pivot point . Meaning i do not think it is going to lower the silver price any time soon. . Also it has already broken out of the red pivot point. i was looking at the overall silver analysis and i believe another bull market is potentially on the way. This ratio is just proving it . silver is going to cost more resulting in a lower gold silver ratio. Im buying silver now before it makes another big move. Please leave some feedback! Are you buying or not ?
Gold has an early indication of potential breakout rallyThe week ended with Gold going nowhere, but early indications suggest a possible potential breakout rally.
Compare the current setup with the previous setup and entry (white arrow), the technicals appear similar yet again, as well as candlestick pattern shows a bullish harami... just like a coiling pattern.
Having said that, being very wary about this imminent (and yet to be confirmed breakout) as the higher time frame suggest a toppish area about 2100, and an expected handle pattern to form (faint yellow line).
Meanwhile, the breakout range spans 1930 to 1980.
Perhaps other aspects might be giving some insights, especially the USD?
Watch for it.
Gold Sitting at EquilibriumSince mid-August, sales in the physical precious metals market – red hot at the peak of the COVID outbreak – have begun to taper off slightly. This slowing of demand is directly correlated to price action. I will focus on gold specifically.
A closeup of the gold chart shows a narrowing and tightly wound price coil of lower highs and higher lows. This narrowing trading range has formed a symmetrical triangle (pennant formation) that probabilistically favors a move in the direction of the underlying trend (60/40). At present, the equilibrium in the market is notable: price is sandwiched between the anchored VWAP (volume-weighted average price) from the August high to the August low, slightly above the 50-day moving average. Price remains in the center of a price channel formed by the March high/low. Relative Strength (RSI) is static at 50, right in the middle of its range. Periods of tightening price equilibrium and consolidation are healthy in uptrending markets as the market digests new prices. As we approach the apex of this coil, gold appears to be setting up for a very big move.
The downside risk remains on a break of $1930 to $1880, and then possibly a full retest of the breakout at $1800. At present, this looks less likely to me. Meanwhile, a breakout would setup gold on a path to $2300. Resolution coming soon, likely late September/early October.
Gold to 2500 USDNice confluence of fib extensions/projections at $2,500.00 USD. Also terminates right at the upper band of the trend from 1980 and 2011 (not drawn) when viewed on a log scale. I believe gold is finishing up a symmetrical triangle from early Aug. '20, and before continuing it's parabolic move up. If so, get ready for some fireworks!
Microanalysis on Gold failureLooks like Gold broke down on the hourly chart with a double top thing at the triangle wedge resistance.
Looking for the bottom support of the triangle wedge...
The run up appeared very bullish for a bit but one should wait for firm breakout.
Loooks like the next two weeks would be volatile, either up or down.
Inflation + GLD ($GLD $DXY $Sil $SPY #Gold #SPY)see full chart & Follow at www.tradingview.com
A while back, you may see me call the top on Gold because it was up 25% in the last 12 months. while market was only 7%.
Some things have changed since then, Gold came back down a bit, The FED (FOMC & Powell) have declared they would let inflation run wild.
Interesting pattern on Gold, as market is starting to dip. we may get a slight bounce opportunity on GLD, as people panic and move into gld as hedge.
What's my play?
I will probably sell GLD puts at $179 to collect options premiums.
What's the significance of this?
KEY TAKEAWAYS About Gold
-Gold has long been considered a durable store of value and a hedge against inflation .
-Over the long run, however, both stocks and bonds have outperformed the price increase in gold , on average.
-Nevertheless, over certain shorter time spans, gold may come out ahead.
Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds
When evaluating the performance of gold as an investment over the long term, it really depends on the time period being analyzed. For example, over a 30-year period, stocks and bonds have outperformed gold , and over a 15-year period, gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.