Gold-ing down...Not something to short, but finally an opportunity to get ready for a second bite of the cherry, if not the last stop to boar the train is coming up... this expected pullback (mentioned before that it can pull back as deep at 1400-1600 technically, despite all rational reasoning) mane deeper than expected. Regardless, it allows an opportunity to look for entry points.
Technically, there has been a series of lower highs, albeit a lack of lower lows for now. It is resting at a horizontal support as well as the triangle support. Later next week, with a risk to break out of the triangle, and breakdown below 1910 (also meeting the 55EMA orange line support), it would be clear as daylight that Gold is retracing and not consolidating.
Other technicals suggest more downside to follow, for example, the MACD has crossed down in the bear territory. Other correlations include a strong bullish divergence of the USD to put downside pressure on USD denominated commodities like gold and oil (Crude oil gave way first).
1800 is the immediate target over the next two weeks. Watch for it.
By the way, the white arrows indicate my last trade entry and exit points. I walk my talk.
GLD
Gold Once Again Facing An Important Cross RoadGold bounced out of the last descending triangle, probably psyching a few people out, and we are in the red triangle! What do you see happening? Buffet just bought gold, so over all I am pretty bullish. If we break up I would expect $2015 as a short term target. If we break down $1830 minimum. Please give your short term opinion. This is not trading advice.
Gold is hard to follow?GLD is still working in a price channel and a trend to the BULLISH side.
Bouncing off the bottom support while consolidating. Positive S&P or DOW moves tend to see down days or sideways selling.
Any bad news may see upticks within the Fib or BB ranges UP!
Watch for Thursday's with Futures closings, Friday Option expiration's and "Witching" days, these are also big Gold/Silver sell signals as margin calls
or weekend bag holders drop positions for cash.
Renko's track just the price moves with trends, use these and Henkin Ashi for patterns, then Candles for action!
Gold may have probably topped outGold prices had been on a year to 2000+, and this was expected over a year ago (may not have been posted here previously). Nonetheless, it had stretched to reach and exceed its target, and is now contemplating what to do. As it does that, the Gold futures GC1! has made a series of lower highs(marked by the white resistance lines). The thing is that it is not followed through by lower lows as well. So, not yet likely a end of trend. But it is clear that a break and close below 1900, it is in a decent downtrend. 1900 must hold. Closing below of 1920 is already enough for me as a qualifier for a decent retracement in Gold.
In other correlationships, the USD Index and USD futures are forming bullish divergences and when these play out, we may see Gold breaking down below 1900.
Possible target 1600, with 1800 as a pause point.
GLD Inside Ascending Triangle. Upside Breakout Due..After a nice $200+ correction from the fresh all-time highs, Gold appears to be making a new triangle which could breakout to the upside by the end of this month/early-September. While spot gold did go lower which is not reflected in the GLD ETF, spot prices did not stay below $1900 for more then 4 hours which shows there is very STRONG demand under that price. Looking to go LONG again upon a confirmed upside breakout..
Gold Is Making a Decision, back to $1820 or $2000Watch for downward pressure on the RSI. We have a descending triangle with Bollinger Band compression providing a slightly bearish outlook. If we drop down below $1900 I would not expect support until $1820. It's possible to move sideways for a bit, and then go back up to $2000 or higher. This is not financial advice!
2020 Gold ATH chart vs 2011 Gold Ath chart $GLD $DXY $Sil #Goldsee full chart & Follow at www.tradingview.com
What's the significance of this?
KEY TAKEAWAYS
-Gold has long been considered a durable store of value and a hedge against inflation.
-Over the long run, however, both stocks and bonds have outperformed the price increase in gold, on average.
-Nevertheless, over certain shorter time spans, gold may come out ahead.
Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds
When evaluating the performance of gold as an investment over the long term, it really depends on the time period being analyzed. For example, over a 30-year period, stocks and bonds have outperformed gold, and over a 15-year period, gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.
Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.
If we look instead over the past 15 years, the price of gold has increased by 278%, roughly the same as the 30 year. Over the same period, the DJIA increased by only 173%.
So, over the longer term, stocks seem to outperform gold by about 3-to-1, but over shorter time horizons, gold may win out. Indeed, if we go way back to the 1920s through today, stocks blow gold away.
Turning to bonds, the average annual rate of return on investment-grade corporate bonds going back to the 1920s is around 5.25%. That indicates that over the past 30 years, corporate bonds have returned around 450% - nearly double that of gold. Over a 15-year period the return on bonds and gold has been fairly comparable.
how much is gold up in the last 12 months? 25%
Stock market in the last 12 months ? Spy 7% Dow 1.6%
Hmmmmm?
Lots of action in the metals - back in MGC/GLDFor active traders, the market action in the metals has been tremendous over the past month. We posted a short idea yesterday in copper HGU2020. The market is higher than our entry.
The 7-day ATR in the GC is over $55 and we saw a nearly 4% decline in today's session. BTC and cryptos followed along lower. We're entering a long position MGCZ2020 based on a Ext Buy on the 1H timeframe. Chose to keep the position small given the large recent ranges and frankly because we got smacked around a bit today in our day-trading accounts in the big contract.
Long MGC 1933, stp 1899, tgt 2003. Also adding back in to GLD Oct 185/195 Bull Calls at 2.75. We scaled 50% of original position at 3.5 yesterday.