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GLD

Long Turkey: An Alternative to “Short” GoldTurkey is in (continued) currency crisis. CBRT (Cent Bank Repub Turkey) has allegedly run dry of its FX reserves to prop up the lira, which has has been hitting all time record lows vs USD & EUR. As USDTRY broke through the psychological 7 level (and doing so against a weakening dollar at that) in July, CBRT more or less threw in the towel in defending the peg, and began buying up gold. So much so that Turkey overtook Russia as the largest buyer of gold in the world - obviously contributing to gold’s run through prev all time highs, $2k and beyond. As CBRT bought gold at a seemingly price indiscriminate pace, Turkish citizens holding lira and seeing their purchasing power get eroded away by the day and facing double digit inflation moved their assets in to anything other than the lira to preserve value - such at BTC. Unlike BTCUSD, BTCEUR, BTCJPY etc, BTCTRY is at all time record highs for this reason, and BTC’s July-Aug rally has also been supported by this reason. The lira meltdown and horrendous monetary policy mismanagement has also obviously been killing the Istanbul stock market, as well as US listed Turkey ETF TUR. Late last week, CBRT finally took steps to tighten credit conditions to local banks - and although nowhere near a sufficient solution, it put a temporary halt on the sell Lira → buy gold, silver, bitcoin, dollars, yen trend, and reversed its sentiment. And when the largest buyer of gold in the world stops buying after pushing prices to all time highs, gold falls, and when gold falls from all time highs, profit taking from record GLD inflows takes hold. Though I bought puts on gold last week in light of developments in Turkey (which NOBODY is discussing, and therefore perfect - let consensus overlook and talk the usual nonsense explanations for market behavior), I’m not going to short gold on a temp pullback, any more so than I would short BTC for a near term downside view within a longer term bull view. Instead, play the reversal by going long TUR. Buy (very cheap) calls for immediate term upside recovery, which for the time being should move inverse to gold. Keep a very close eye on USDTRY breaking above 7.4 or below 7. And note the CBRT policy meeting later this month (Aug 20) for a potential inflection point for current trend to reverse again, and gold to continue upside.
NASDAQ:TURShort
by acrossthespread
19
Could Gold be headed for a double top? Gold could form a double top like it did in early March before heading lower and hit the .618 Fib target of low 1700. This is a short term move so you could play this with GLD Aug 28th calls with: Stop at GLD below 178.5. First Target 190 (gap fill) Second Target 194.5 (double top) If that plays out, the next move down would be even bigger! It would then be followed by a very bullish trend for gold even bigger again and for the longer term! Miners could also be an option for this play but in March, although Miners did go up, they did not rise to their February top (see blue line). So I prefer GLD for this setup. Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by adventurous51
All Time HIGH! Things you can do instead of shorting SPYThis craze could go on for a little while. who knows when the reality will catch up with the stock market, In the meantime, you can position yourself for a couple of potential explosive moves. - Long bonds, they are declining today, could be a good entry price soon? No need for an idea here, just look at the March TLT chart. - Long USD (see related story) - Long Gold before the big drop (see related story, to be followed by bullish trend. This one has worked out faster than I thought! I am up 33% on a position I took today) Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
AMEX:SPY
by adventurous51
Sorry peeps, Gold got clobbered not glittered...Just a couple of days ago, Gold hit a high of 2089, and then it appeared to have capitulated for a short and brief period below 1900. This has very deep technical implications and I was asked if I would see gold at 2000 again, and importantly... when. So, in an attempt to check out the technical bull and bear potentials, and despite requiring more time for Gold to consolidate, here is my preliminary conclusion... Gold should be heading down, but not before a lower high around 2000-2020 next week (16-17 August] as marked by the fuchsia ellipse. Failing to break out with momentum, would see Gold start it’s mid term major retracement... to 1600 possibly. Would I buy gold now? Nah... despite my totally bullish stance on Gold, I would be looking for structures of better odds in my favor as previously described. Meanwhile, one thing I am sure, and it’s very obvious... Gold is in a volatile phase till the end of the year. “ Patience you must have, my young Padawan ” - Master Yoda
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
4
Widen Your GazeProviding an update to our previous trade setup for Gold that outlined a potential Bearish Head and Shoulders setting off a fractal chain reaction of selling pressure. That scenario has played out as we predicted and we expect selling pressure to remain intact for the near term. We expect the bearish momentum to continue until we reach previous highs around the 1920's. Never trade a pattern before it has completed and aways hedge your positions as appropriate.
TVC:GOLDShort
by HandofGold
5
GOLD REVERSAL WITH FRACTAL H&SHere is a multi-timeframe fractal analysis for Gold priced in USD. Looks can be deceiving but it appears a head and shoulders pattern has formed signaling a short term price reversal in the yellow metal. This pattern has potential to set off a chain reaction of bearish chart patterns and downward price movement. Use stop loss as appropriate as these are irrational markets and volitility could spike at any moment. To validate, looking at the DXY, the chart seems to show the opposite with a double bottom reversal pattern beginning bullish series of movements. Good Luck Traders!
TVC:GOLDShort
by HandofGold
1
Golden Opportunities- lessons from the last two yearsIt all started with gold prices falling in 2018, and after a while, I started looking for potential opportunities in Gold. What followed was a long time friend by the same namesake suddenly popped up to ask for my opinion specifically about gold... and this was two years ago today, short of a few days, in mid-August 2018 (see chart by zooming out). Since then, the gray arrows mark the theoretical ideal entry points and the white arrows are my real entry points. You can see a particular pattern here, which I spoke of previously, where it is more favorable a time for entry based on a set of rules that includes technicals and patterns, providing a higher probability of a good profit, be it for a trade, investment, or longer term holding. Coming back to the last two weeks, I have had many people asking about gold, and my opinion about it, etc. many are ready to enter the gold market. You see, most of it was sparked off by the recent gold rush (as is always), and I noticed that often, there is a lack of rules from the beginning, for entry nor for exit. So herein is a visual set of rules I have for entry in gold which were tested over the last two years... 1. Price must break above a down sloping trend line; and 2. MACD must cross the zero line; and 3. Price must be higher than the recent highs (of the last 11/13/21, whichever is preferred) These rules work very well, particularly when two conditions are met: 1. Weekly chart is favorable in trend (this case, trending up); and 2. There is a strong fundamental reason (this case is very robust for Gold to be in favour) So there you go... I hope everyone can see that to buy gold at the current time (or In recent weeks) is probably not as favorable as you would like it to be, notwithstanding that Gold may advance higher at some point, anyways. In fact, it is projected that gold should be topping out around 2100, next week perhaps (reference the white line).
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Auguraltrader
Gold - Fibonacci Cheat SheetGold played out exactly as planned and squeezed up to the 0.618 Fib Extension around $2,070 taking out all the short sellers with little to no resistance. Although I am still long GLD, GDX, SLV, I've closed out my Futures positions for $2,154.50 profit and will wait for a better swing trade setup (entries/exits linked below). Setups: 1. Continue squeezing up from here. Buy on daily close above 0.618 fib @ $2,070. 2. Chop sideways between $2,000 and $2,070 before moving up. 3. Dip lower and find support. Lot's of chop before a swing higher.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by ryan-snk