Get started

GLD

Case for a weak US Dollar Four factors that typically influence the dollar’s direction have shifted from bullish to bearish since the onset of the coronavirus crisis: 1) FOMC has shifted to a zero-rate policy • US interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are negative • Growth expectations have slowed while inflation expectations have risen… sending Real Interest Rates down • Fed sharply increased access to U.S. dollars through its swap facilities with other central banks, increasing the supply of dollars in the global economy and enabling greater access to dollars to a wide set of economies at lower cost. 2) US Growth likely will underperform other major economies due to COVID a. The slow U.S. response to the coronavirus crisis has altered expectations about economic growth relative to major country peers. Outbreaks in Europe and China appear to have peaked, while in the U.S. cases are still rising. Consequently, the U.S. economic recovery is likely to take longer, with higher unemployment and weaker consumer spending. b. The European Union’s recovery fund marks a step toward greater mutualization of debt (combination of debt across Europe Union)—a factor that can reduce the perception of risk around the euro currency. c. Recent purchasing managers index (PMI) data suggest that the U.S. economic rebound is leveling off while growth is rising in most other regions. 3) Political uncertainty has risen a. Rising tensions between the U.S. and China b. Upcoming presidential election, make the outlook for the U.S. less certain. With less clarity about the direction of policy or its implications for the economy and regulations, foreign investors may begin to shy away from U.S. investments. c. While the US dollar is still a safe-haven currency in times of global turmoil, in the absence of a crisis, the outlook for other countries looks more predictable. 4) Increasing US budget deficit will need to be financed with foreign capital a. Historically, a rising budget deficit has often been a leading indicator of dollar weakness. b. Because the U.S. is a net debtor nation, a rising budget deficit needs to be financed with foreign investment.
AMEX:UUPShort
by dorfmanmaster
Gold looks ready for a shallow retracementThe Gold chart shows a magnificent bull rally recently, and it stopped short just before 2000. The candlesticks indicate a possible stall, albeit temporary. The MACD is similarly pointing to a stall of sorts too. Given that Gold likes to rally hard and stall, it is likely to be retracing to about 1920-1940 area, before a last attempt to 2000 (or Intraday pop to 2000 for an anticipated double top). System buy signal was triggered at1640 previously and it has been a good run. Real entry was upon triangle breakout marked by the white arrow. And previously projected movement plotted by the orange arrows, which clearly appear to be underestimating the extent of the rally. Watch that Gap...
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
Gold Parabola is on boosters...and it will burn out in the coming months . This presents a very good opportunity to board the train at the last station of call, without a doubt. Thing is... expect a good pullback mid to late August (3-4 weeks time) and Gold should be good for the picking towards the end of the year. Technically, Gold is very bullish, and a real trade entry is marked on 14 May, when a retracement had a flag/pennent break out. The grey arrow shows another possible entry point that would have been about 8-11% profitable. The point here is to know that this uptrend is robust, have entry rules upon end of retracements, and know when price goes parabolic. Gold is crazy bullish, not yet overstretched, and will have strong retracements for more bullish waves to come. So prepare. On a side note, watch also the miners, but do be aware that these miners are also affected by the equity market currents. Enjoy the ride!
TVC:GOLD
by Auguraltrader
The Case Against GoldThis has turned into something of an essay, so consider yourself forewarned about its length. It's intended to be a brief lesson about investing in general, and ultimately about "investing" in gold in particular. I'm going to be my contrarian self and take a big dump on everyone's favorite present commodity, glittering gold. First though, I want to present a few comments about investing in general. What is the aim of "investing"? There are two kinds of "investors" and depending on whom you ask, you may get two different responses. Obviously, the way you feel like answering that question right now is: "To make a profit." Now, that is true, but traditional investors and speculators, though they both may give that same answer, will often endeavor to arrive at that "profit" in two very different ways. The traditional investor will, in the case of equities, try to arrive at a profit by participating in a company through the means of ownership, in a company whose future business prospects look promising, and, crucially, whose stock he or she believes does not presently capture the value of that promise. And often, they would like to receive a dividend. A speculator, on the other hand, is more solely fixated on price movement. Now, it is often difficult to disentangle the two because a traditional investor is fixated on price at some point: after all, he or she does, just as the speculator does, want to turn a profit. So, how can one tell the difference? A great way is to ask yourself why are folks "investing" in something? And you must be honest about this, especially if you are asking yourself this question. If you find yourself obsessing primarily about the price, then you have your answer. And I have absolutely no problem with anyone being a speculator. I speculate all the time! So don't read into that anything particularly critical in nature. I am only laying that down in order to make a point later on. Another point: in a long-term market cycle, an instrument, whether an equity or a commodity, will go through "bull" and "bear markets"; they will have periods of advancement in price, then periods of correction, then, hopefully, further advancement. Putting it all together, it is in those "corrective" periods during which traditional investors invest most heavily (i.e., Warren Buffett) and it is toward the end of the advancing periods when speculators tend to arrive (i.e., Dave Portnoy). And in fact, it is often the arrival of the speculating public, who have been attracted by the accelerating rise in prices that gives the tops of markets their characteristic shape. Again, I must emphasize that I have absolutely no problem with speculators, and as a matter of fact, I often engage in speculation myself. The reason I bring this point up is because knowing the difference between the two will help you to identify where exactly in a cycle you presently are. And that's what I think is important about gold. One last point, and then I'll get to my point. Equities tend to have long bull markets and shorter bear markets, but commodities tend to be the opposite: they tend to have more rapid bull markets and longer bear markets (when compared to equites). Now, in the case of gold, where are we? Many people right now are insisting that gold is going to the moon. It's in the news, it's all over Twitter, the coin shops are empty, and I just saw a report today that showed that Millennials are now finding it attractive as well. Personally, when I see and hear so much public excitement about an investment vehicle, I know right where I am at. It's the contrarian's super power. Now, as with the case with equities, "investors" in gold take two forms: traditional and speculative. The difference is that with gold, for instance, the traditional investor, instead of seeking the ownership and dividends of equities, seeks the preservation of wealth. That is what gold does. But, as with equities, gold speculators are attracted primarily by price. That part is the same. And what I see everywhere right now is a broad public attraction to price. And in fact, I am seeing outright greed and excitement about the potential for the price of gold to skyrocket. Now, none of this is surprising given what the central banks are doing right now. But, as I mentioned above, honesty is critically important here. If folks are looking to "increase their wealth" (as opposed to "preserving it") by buying gold, then the speculators have arrived, and we are at some kind of top of a market, not the beginning of a new bull market. Again, I do not begrudge anyone from speculating in gold, hell, have some fun. But, it's important to know where you are at. Now might be a great time to have fun with gold, but it might not be the best time to buy and hold gold. Why? Aside from the public excitement about gold, there are some clues in the chart, I believe. If gold is in the midst of a bull market, then we can divide the long-term chart thusly: The problem with this chart is that, for a commodity, the bull/bear market timing looks an awful lot like an equity, not a commodity. It did not correct nearly long enough, I would think. And this is where, I believe, some basic Elliott Wave principles can be of great help. The price action from the end of 2015 until today does not look impulsive. Of course, someone who is bullish on gold will be able to find a bullish count in there, but compare this period to the period prior to 2011 and you should see some differences. Long, impulsive bull markets tend to look just like the period on the left, and when you see a lot of complicated "chop" and "overlap" of "waves" it's an excellent clue that you are still in a correction. Yikes! But then how are we up so darn high in price, in a correction? The answer to that, from an Elliott Wave perspective is the "expanded flat." As with most "corrections" it takes a 3-wave form (as opposed to the impulsive moves which are composed of 5 waves). And it would look something like this: Traditionally, B is higher than the top of the last bull market top (this encourage bulls and speculators, doesn't it?) and then C is often lower than A. Yikes! Now, under what conditions could this happen? Well, I do believe we are facing an economic catastrophe, yes? If economic conditions worsen, we cannot eat our gold. Now, that said, if gold does take a tumble, and I have mentioned this in my prior posts on gold, because of further deflationary forces, it is possible that they print so much money that we get serious inflation, or, in an effort to save the dollar from collapse, re-peg the dollar to gold, but at a much higher price than it was before, either of which could set gold off on a new bull market. But, I don't think that we're there yet. Not with such a feeble correction in a commodity, and not with mom and pop buying the coin shops out of gold, and not with so many people salivating over the prospects of higher gold "prices." The immortal words of Warren Buffett are really just that important, and yet so often overlooked: "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy."
TVC:GOLDShort
by CHTradingGroup
7
GOLD - Next Stop $180Gold has been on a mission to space and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. Whenever we see consolidation and a possible resistance forming it breaks through with ease. Targets for now: 1. $180 Feel free to give us a follow and shoot us a like for more analysis updates. Cheers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on here, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Feel free to give us a follow and shoot us a like for more analysis updates.
AMEX:GLDLong
by MannyLo
$DXY and Inflation$DXY, the U.S. Dollar Currency Index has been steadily declining for some time now. Based on a chart analysis, we can see a double-top formation followed by a price consolidation that ultimately led to a breakdown once closing under a support trend line. After a fall of about 4%, an attempt was made to retrace. After a pullback, a second attempt was made, but that uptrend was much weaker, leading to the current downtrend. (Also noteworthy is the death cross of the 50SMA below the 200SMA which was followed by a strong bearish candle the next day). As the USD's value falls, we are getting closer to inflation, however it is approaching a support line. Additionally, GLD and SLV, the Gold and Silver ETFs have been on a strong bull run lately. While DXY may look to reverse back into a stronger value area, Silver and Gold, which are strong fallbacks when the value of the USD decreases, may look to pair the DXY reversal with an inverse price action.
TVC:DXY
by nmatto
2