Sorry peeps, Gold got clobbered not glittered...Just a couple of days ago, Gold hit a high of 2089, and then it appeared to have capitulated for a short and brief period below 1900. This has very deep technical implications and I was asked if I would see gold at 2000 again, and importantly... when.
So, in an attempt to check out the technical bull and bear potentials, and despite requiring more time for Gold to consolidate, here is my preliminary conclusion...
Gold should be heading down, but not before a lower high around 2000-2020 next week (16-17 August] as marked by the fuchsia ellipse. Failing to break out with momentum, would see Gold start it’s mid term major retracement... to 1600 possibly.
Would I buy gold now? Nah... despite my totally bullish stance on Gold, I would be looking for structures of better odds in my favor as previously described. Meanwhile, one thing I am sure, and it’s very obvious... Gold is in a volatile phase till the end of the year.
“ Patience you must have, my young Padawan ” - Master Yoda
GLD
Gold's 2020 channel not broken - No doubt, weakness of the dollar has been quite the moment for a ton of assets (Bitcoin, SPY, etc), but are we changing that thesis so soon with recent news out or Russia?
Taking a look a the daily futures chart, we can see the 2020 channel is still very much intact. If the channel acts as resistance, look for the next leg up!
I published this pullback yesterday. XAUUSD XAGUSD SLV GLDBuy this DIP
This will move down again perhaps tomorrow. Then See Silver above $30 and Gold above $2075
GLD SLV XAUUSD XAGUSD
This will see big moves up on any news or moves down in SPX/SPY
This is the only pull back short term.
Expect more frequent pull backs as we see trend of Gold over $2500-3000+
Add to your existing positions while you caN.
Widen Your GazeProviding an update to our previous trade setup for Gold that outlined a potential Bearish Head and Shoulders setting off a fractal chain reaction of selling pressure. That scenario has played out as we predicted and we expect selling pressure to remain intact for the near term. We expect the bearish momentum to continue until we reach previous highs around the 1920's.
Never trade a pattern before it has completed and aways hedge your positions as appropriate.
This week tells all? - the Gold chapterGold has had a beautiful parabolic run and last week just short of 11 to the earlier target set out at 2100. Once Gold hit 2089, it pulled back significantly. Enough to have pretty much an engulfing candlestick pattern with MACD turning to cross down. This week should tell clearly if this was Gold’s top. Still possible to have another attempt at the historical high, but likely to be consolidating if not pulling back hard.
Watch for it!
BTC consolidating in minor channel. Looking for retest $12,000!After a slightly less volatile week, BTC has pulled back from testing the $12000 price level. Analysis of Trend lines, RSI and general supply/demand suggest the retest to $12,000 is more likely then not! Looking for price action following this retest for double top formation and possible short entry. Fail
GOLD REVERSAL WITH FRACTAL H&SHere is a multi-timeframe fractal analysis for Gold priced in USD. Looks can be deceiving but it appears a head and shoulders pattern has formed signaling a short term price reversal in the yellow metal. This pattern has potential to set off a chain reaction of bearish chart patterns and downward price movement. Use stop loss as appropriate as these are irrational markets and volitility could spike at any moment.
To validate, looking at the DXY, the chart seems to show the opposite with a double bottom reversal pattern beginning bullish series of movements.
Good Luck Traders!
Golden Opportunities- lessons from the last two yearsIt all started with gold prices falling in 2018, and after a while, I started looking for potential opportunities in Gold. What followed was a long time friend by the same namesake suddenly popped up to ask for my opinion specifically about gold... and this was two years ago today, short of a few days, in mid-August 2018 (see chart by zooming out).
Since then, the gray arrows mark the theoretical ideal entry points and the white arrows are my real entry points. You can see a particular pattern here, which I spoke of previously, where it is more favorable a time for entry based on a set of rules that includes technicals and patterns, providing a higher probability of a good profit, be it for a trade, investment, or longer term holding.
Coming back to the last two weeks, I have had many people asking about gold, and my opinion about it, etc. many are ready to enter the gold market. You see, most of it was sparked off by the recent gold rush (as is always), and I noticed that often, there is a lack of rules from the beginning, for entry nor for exit.
So herein is a visual set of rules I have for entry in gold which were tested over the last two years...
1. Price must break above a down sloping trend line; and
2. MACD must cross the zero line; and
3. Price must be higher than the recent highs (of the last 11/13/21, whichever is preferred)
These rules work very well, particularly when two conditions are met:
1. Weekly chart is favorable in trend (this case, trending up); and
2. There is a strong fundamental reason (this case is very robust for Gold to be in favour)
So there you go... I hope everyone can see that to buy gold at the current time (or In recent weeks) is probably not as favorable as you would like it to be, notwithstanding that Gold may advance higher at some point, anyways. In fact, it is projected that gold should be topping out around 2100, next week perhaps (reference the white line).
Gold - Fibonacci Cheat SheetGold played out exactly as planned and squeezed up to the 0.618 Fib Extension around $2,070 taking out all the short sellers with little to no resistance.
Although I am still long GLD, GDX, SLV, I've closed out my Futures positions for $2,154.50 profit and will wait for a better swing trade setup (entries/exits linked below).
Setups:
1. Continue squeezing up from here. Buy on daily close above 0.618 fib @ $2,070.
2. Chop sideways between $2,000 and $2,070 before moving up.
3. Dip lower and find support. Lot's of chop before a swing higher.