Potential triangle in XAU/USD
After the all-time-high in december, i've been following the price and it is possible that each leg has 3 wave count.
Last night, price broke down to 2012 level. This could be an undershoot of E wave of triangle
with E wave forming complex correction pattern
If the price does not go under 2012
this could be a start of the next move up to 2200-2300 area
GLD
Friendly Reminder You Don't Own Enough Bitcoin.
The Dawn of the Final ETF Approval Week - Everything will change.
Bitcoin will obliterate Apple returns
Bitcoin will obliterate SPY returns
Bitcoin will obliterate Gold returns
Bitcoin will obliterate Silver Returns
Anything plugged into Bitcoin related or touching bitcoin will be rocket launched into an entire new global standard.
I have come to the conclusion that smart money will enter this first being convinced of a new turning of the way we will live life in the next century meaning they will move first.
At the $200,000 mark many will sell calling the top
(you will know they're wrong due to zero on chain data proving this top)
I suspect after $300,000 appears in a short period the first batch of doubters will start to enter the market.
After $600,000 is breached there will be motions moving and outrage to shut Bitcoin down calling it the next "2009" the next Mortgage backed securities"
(This will cause major short interest and major Puts following the consensus that this is a bubble and not a supply shock)
Reaching the $1,500,000 people short and call writers will be entering margin call territory.
Remember the hard critics of Bitcoin who will give in around the $1,500,000 - $2,500,000 mark over the next years, this will mark the start of the extended bear market.
So the question is do you own enough Bitcoin?
Silver is setting up for a short term collapseSilver seems to be setting up for a beating. Its forming a rising wedge, whos top aligns with a strong resistance. The rsi and macd are forming obvious bearish divergences. I believe that the light holiday liquidity, alongside the bearish setup, is a recipe for a beautiful buying opportunity
Gold/XAUUSD ~ Blow-off Top Keeps On...Blowing? (2H)TVC:GOLD chart mapping/analysis.
Gold's massive (algo-triggered) blow-off top killed the bullish momentum - pending further selling pressure if DXY/bond yields decide to rally into end of the year..
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Selling pressure towards 50% Fib initial support zone.
Bearish EOY capitulation target = Golden Pocket support zone.
Expect any bullish reversal to be met with sellers, pending underlying relative strength in DXY/bond yields.
38.2% Fib / 200SMA confluence zone as potential target for short positioning, TBC.
$DXY US Dollar looks primed again#GOLD & #SILVER are still selling off since we made the call, very close to top.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is suffering its biggest drop since august of 2023.
The US #Dollar really looks like it settled at the 102 area.
Not a normal area to find support but it can happen.
TVC:DXY seems as if it wants to conceivably push higher from here.
AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Gold > Silver, $DXY done? $BTC best performer latelyGOOD MORNING
#GOLD is currently holding better than #Silver.
Has the US #Dollar run stopped or will it find support soon?
Out of all of these CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been the best recent performer, by a good amount.
Keep an eye on strength (RSI), it's still weakening as it goes higher.
However, $ flow has been increasing.
Gold not showing good signs the last 2 daysThe last two days are not a good sign for #GOLD bugs
But we said that on Sunday...
WHY do we say this?
Sunday was an ugly reversal
Huge volume with bearish engulfing yesterday
Follow through selloff today as well
We could be seeing a top for some time.......
AMEX:GLD NYSE:NEM TVC:GOLD NYSE:AEM NYSE:FNV NYSE:WPM
$GOLD Bulls Need What?Gold achieved a historic milestone with a record monthly close in November 2023. For gold bulls, the next crucial step is the formation of a bullish consolidation, potentially leading to a bull flag pattern on the weekly chart. However, the path ahead is not without challenges, as indicated by the significant resistance levels depicted by the blue lines on the chart. These lines represent critical points that gold prices need to overcome to maintain their upward trajectory.
$DXY keeps crumblingSince our call the US #Dollar has crumbled. In currency those are big moves.
Yesterday we said that it looked as if TVC:DXY wanted to settle a bit. However, it was an unusual area for it to find a "bottom". It eventually reversed & went lower in the day.
The yellow lines are more likely a target & will cause some sort of bounce when/if they reach them.
Weekly shows the hit best.
TVC:DXY CRYPTOCAP:BTC #Gold #silver
GDX: Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom In PlayGold is up an even 10% year to date. The precious metal has frustrated bulls at times in 2023 but falling real interest rates over the past several weeks have undoubtedly been a boon. While it’s encouraging to see spot gold climb above the $2000 per ounce mark, I see potential upside in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
Notice in the chart that the portfolio of gold mining companies, Newmont Mining (NEM) being the biggest weight, is working on a bullish inverse head and shoulders bottom formation. I see a key neckline around the $30 mark while the low under $26 from early October represents the head. If we project that $4.50 height onto the neckline, then an upside measured move price objective to near $34.50 would be in play.
Something to watch heading into year-end is how the US Dollar Index performs. Surely a move toward 4% on the 10-year Treasury Note rate would be a macro tailwind for gold and the gold miners, but a drop under 100 might also help commodities writ large. What could cause such a combination of lower rates and a weaker greenback? Softer economic data, including a weak payrolls report due out on Friday, December 8, might be such a catalyst. As it stands, four rate cuts are priced into next year which offers a solid backdrop for precious metals heading into 2024.
$GDX Bull Flag Poised to Break OutThe AMEX:GDX , a notable gold miners ETF, is currently displaying a Bull Flag formation, indicating a potential breakout on the horizon. My perspective remains that we are on the cusp of a significant breakout, one that could not only impact the gold market substantially but also trigger an even larger movement in mining stocks. Admittedly, I've held this view for some time, akin to the old saying that "a watched pot never boils," suggesting that sometimes anticipation can make the wait feel longer. By mentioning this, I might be tempting fate with the market, yet I believe that this breakout could occur unexpectedly, perhaps when it's least anticipated by most investors.
$GLD Cup & Handle Monthly Chart### Technical Analysis Update: AMEX:GLD Cup and Handle Formation on Monthly Chart
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF ( AMEX:GLD ), which tracks the price of gold, is exhibiting a notable pattern on its monthly chart known as a 'Cup and Handle' formation. This pattern is of keen interest to technical analysts and investors, as it often signals a bullish continuation trend.
#### Understanding the Cup and Handle Formation
The Cup and Handle is a bullish chart pattern that resembles the shape of a tea cup. This formation typically occurs in an uptrend and is indicative of a consolidation period followed by a breakout.
1. **The Cup**: This is formed when the price first experiences a gradual decline, followed by a stabilization and a rise back to the original starting point. The price movement during this phase should be rounded and shallow rather than a sharp V shape, and it usually spans several months to a year. For AMEX:GLD , the cup formation suggests a period of consolidation after an initial sell-off, followed by a gradual and steady recovery to the previous highs.
2. **The Handle**: Following the cup, a small downward drift in the price forms the handle. This is typically a retracement that does not go below the half-way point of the cup. The handle represents a final consolidation or a shakeout of less committed traders before a potential breakout. It's often seen as a bullish flag or pennant.
#### Implications for AMEX:GLD
For AMEX:GLD , the appearance of a Cup and Handle pattern on the monthly chart is significant. It indicates that after enduring a period of correction and consolidation, the ETF is potentially gearing up for a continuation of its prior uptrend.
#### Key Points to Watch
- **Breakout Point**: The critical level to watch is the resistance line formed at the top of the cup. A convincing breakout above this level on increased volume could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
- **Handle Formation**: The depth and duration of the handle are crucial. It should not drop significantly into the cup and should show signs of stabilizing or minor retracement.
- **Volume**: A genuine breakout is often accompanied by higher-than-average trading volume, adding confirmation to the pattern.
#### Trading Considerations
Investors and traders considering positions in AMEX:GLD should closely monitor the completion of the handle and the subsequent price action. A breakout above the cup’s rim could offer a potential entry point, while a failure to break above or a drop below the handle might necessitate a reassessment of the bullish hypothesis.
As with any technical pattern, it's advisable to consider the Cup and Handle formation in conjunction with other fundamental and market factors. This comprehensive approach helps in making more informed investment decisions.
Gold - Fade a The Short Squeeze RallyThe marketing team behind gold and silver are always telling dumb and dead money that they should "hedge" against a "collapsing US Petrodollar" during times of global instability by being long on metals.
The trade rarely works out. Gold and silver not only routinely follow the equities markets straight to Hell, but tend to get dumped during the start of new index impulse swings.
This rally while the SPX gave up its 5% rally is actually a significant anomaly.
But if the propaganda never, ever worked out, the propaganda would stop working and the marketing team would be out of a job.
And that more or less sums up a 10% monthly rally on gold that's killed short sellers who wanted to comfortably ride a trend down.
You can see on the monthly that this price action is just more ranging, more wick plays, and there's a notable unbalanced gap under $1,800.
It's really important to keep a cool head as a goldbug, especially under the condition where the establishment media is reporting that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is long several hundred tonnes worth of gold.
The CCP is collapsing and everything that is going on in the world has to do with the various members of the CCP around the world, who are not of the Chinese race, scrambling to bury their skeletons while also trying to ensure they can take control of the country when the regime falls.
And because of that, there's no reason to believe that a CCP that is desperately selling US Treasuries (see: Santiago Capital) for USD is going to be allowed to go plussy plus greeny green on its deeply deep goldy gold position.
What hangs over the head of everyone on this planet is the Party's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million students and Disciples, a sin committed by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, that has even had the audacity to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting.
Keep your distance from and wash your hands from anything related to the CCP, including the western factions that have become a particle of the Party swearing Marxist vows in Shanghai.
So, here's the trade.
Doesn't matter if gold takes $2,015. It's not the right overall timing for a new rally to $2,200.
Instead, either go short, or wait for gold to trade under $1,800 again.
There's no reason to believe gold is a new bull market until longs have been ruthlessly violated. There's no reason to believe metals are going to rally as a hedge during an international war or a major equity sell off, or a major equity rally lol.
Gold Futures ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)COMEX:GC1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes
Gold Futures holding bullish consolidation after epic rally since early October due to Middle East tensions triggering a "Flight to Safety" trade + institutional short covering.
Wait & see approach whether Gold will continue to climb higher within ascending parallel channel (green), or capitulate to refill the breakout gap, TBC.