Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 1st WK SEP 2023Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 1st WK SEP 2023
> NEUTRAL 📊 CORRECT
Closed Price: 180.11
Target Price: 179.67 | Strike Price:178.64 SEP5
Upper Range: 185.15
Lower Range: 174.19
GLD
$GLD Bearish To bullish Reversal AMEX:GLD Bearish To bullish Reversal The technical analysis of the bearish-to-bullish reversal in the context of the GLD (SPDR Gold Trust ETF) involves the observation of key price actions, trend lines, and moving averages. This analysis suggests a potential shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
**Bearish to Bullish Reversal:**
The first notable point is the transition from a bearish trend to a potential bullish reversal. A bearish trend is characterized by a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating a prevailing downward movement. A reversal, on the other hand, suggests a shift in sentiment and price direction.
**Down Sloping Trend Line Break:**
The breakout of a down-sloping trend line is a significant technical event. Trend lines are drawn by connecting a series of highs or lows, and a down-sloping trend line connects declining highs. The breakout above this trend line indicates that the price has overcome the resistance posed by the trend, suggesting increased buying interest and potential bullish momentum.
**Testing the 150-Day Moving Average:**
The 150-day moving average is a crucial technical indicator that smooths out price fluctuations over a relatively longer period. It serves as a dynamic support or resistance level. When the price tests the moving average from below, it signifies a potential reversal point. In this case, the test of the 150-day moving average after the trend line breakout further supports the idea of a potential bullish reversal.
**Confirmation and Further Analysis:**
For this potential reversal scenario to gain more credibility, it's important to look for confirming factors:
1. **Volume Analysis:** An increase in trading volume during the breakout and subsequent price movement lends strength to the reversal. Higher volume indicates increased market participation and conviction.
2. **Follow-Through:** After breaking the down-sloping trend line and testing the 150-day moving average, the price ideally should continue to rise. The sustained upward movement after the initial breakout adds more confidence to the bullish reversal thesis.
3. **Relative Strength and Momentum Indicators:** Analyzing indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can provide insight into the strength of the reversal and whether it's in line with other technical signals.
4. **Support Levels:** Identify nearby support levels, such as previous swing highs or the recently broken down-sloping trend line. These levels can act as potential support in case of a pullback.
It's important to note that technical analysis provides probabilities rather than certainties. While a bullish reversal scenario seems plausible based on the trend line breakout and testing of the moving average, it's essential to consider the broader market context, news, and fundamental factors that might impact the price of GLD. Successful trading decisions often involve a holistic approach that incorporates both technical and fundamental analysis.
Silver - 33 Moons [And An Options Opportunity](Using 3-Day candles for visibility only. Consult weekly/daily yourself)
I have an open call on Gold in that I believe a new high will be set, but it won't actually be bullish, because metals are going to dump pretty hard in the future and try to make retail sell their bullion.
Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped?
I hadn't paid a lot of attention to Silver and was on the sidelines until it dumped 10 percent this week, and now I believe there is a crazy good opportunity.
The problem with Gold is that the Chinese Communist Party bought a lot of it and they're going to get margin called or are the ones actually short selling.
The problem with silver is that there's not a lot of it left and it's really needed for technology.
When smart money wants to buy they accumulate at low prices and distribute at high prices. Often times what precedes the biggest moves are smaller moves that serve the purpose of wiping out and shaking out early short sellers and trapping retail traders who just love to buy high and sell low.
There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the world right now, as you can tell from the weekend "Prigozhin Coup," which I cover the implications of for the US Dollar here.
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
But the biggest geopolitical risk is what happens if Xi Jinping gets up one morning and dumps the CCP. Nobody believes this can happen and nobody is prepared for it.
But when it happens, it will implicate the whole world for both Xi and China to survive, they will have to weaponize the persecution of the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong committed by the Jiang Zemin faction starting in 1999.
Since much of the world's financial sector and governments have dirtied themselves with Jiang in the persecution, when that day comes, it will mean that everything, everywhere is limit down. The liquidity will be gone, the algos will be off. Markets will no longer be made.
It is what it is.
In the meantime, nothing about what's going on with silver is bearish. Prices are low and it makes you want to sell, but it's actually a situation where you want to go long.
I believe that $21.20~ or $20.80 is what it's aiming for, and afterwards, the target will be at least $29.
So, what about options? One of the ways you can trade this move is calls on the SLV BlackRock ETF.
Getting in at $19~ and seeing a $10 move would push the ETF to at least $30.
There are two things that are significant about this:
1. Jan '24 at the money calls (based on the price right now) are $2.21
2. Average Implied volatility is only 24% and the 52W week low is 23.6% and the 52W high is 36%.
What this means is that calls are cheap and if iVol were to expand on a bull run from say 26% to 40% you'd pick up an extra ~$1 per contract on top of the strike gains.
The AGQ 2x Bull ETF has even more potential upside but it's a lot more risk and the swings are a lot more dramatic, for really obvious reasons.
All of this also means you can speculate in mining ETFs and individual miners. You need to use the underlying commodities as your metronome, though.
But this also means you'd have to be able to hold a winning position for 3 or 6 months.
You'd want to take profits at $27 and $29.
But if you get ahead of yourself and buy the $30+ high thinking that $50 and $100 and $500 are coming, you're likely to get seriously hurt.
Something is going to happen in this world between now and Q1 2024 and it's not going to be good news for the people lost in delusion wanting to have happy days and be a big baller.
Be careful, and happy trading.
GOLD vs NASDAQ- Which is better ?Over a period of time what is better to trade and invest in a gold futures based ETF or instead
the TQQQ , a leveraged and popular ETF tracking the NAS100 and NASDAQ. To analyse, this
I put NUGT on the daily chart and superimposed the price action of TQQQ.
Starting one year ago, NUGT had the better price action in an upward facing megaphone
pattern reflecting high volatility and topped out 70% over the last August start in a double top.
After its retracement, it is now positioned perhaps for bullish continuation.
TQQQ on the otherhand since a low at the end of 2022 has been in a less volatile trend up
topping out at 50% last month but now also with a bit of a pullback and retracement.
I conclude that one is not better than the other and that a lot depends on a traders
appreciation of market tops. Swing trades in both managed well may give diversity to
the trades and allow for profitable outcomes. As a well established gold bug, however, I
believe that gold will shine moving forward especially if a BRICS currency is launched with
a real gold standard.
GOLD to OIL prices the RATIO ANALYSIS ( and meaning )GLD is an ETF tracking gold futures prices across a blend of durations. USO is a similar ETF
for crude oil. I was interested to see what the ratios look like and considering the trading
advise of buy low should I be trading and bartering gold to get oil or viceversa. It is applicable
for be because I am in part a commodities trader and has some activities on the leveraged forex
market.
On the daily chart dressed with a set of two long term anchored VWAP standard deviation lines ,
and some horizontal static resistance lines added, it is obvous to me that the ratio is
currently sitting on the mean VWAP band for support confluent with the lower trendline
of the ascending megaphone pattern which is typically considered demostrative of increasing
volatility. I conclude that if I am a barterer I should trade my oil for gold. If I have gold only
and dry powder I should increase my gold holdings. If I prefer trading oil I should short the
market. This is because the ratio is set up to rise. The means that gold will rise or oil will
fall or some hybrid combination of that. My entry here is when the volatility on the indicator
is green and crosses over the running average.
This is a simple demonstration of how charting with TradingView can help a trader make well-
grounded and profitable trading decisions while lowering risk and making profits more probable.
What do you think of this analysis? What are your agreements or disagreements with it?
XAUUSD Spot Gold LongXAU last week had a trend up followed by a double top on July 19 and 20.
On the @H chart the trend down seems to have included a drop through the basis
band of the Bollinger Bands as well as a crossunder the anchored mean VWAP
and then further downtrend until price was outside the lower BB. The current
candlestick pattern is that of a morning star reersal patter ( sometimes called
a 3 bar play). The Chrs Moody MACD indicator shows a line cross under what was a
red negative histogram that has flipped to a tiny green bar. In this context, I
believe XAUUSD is setting up to rebound I will long trade it on forex and analyze equities
for an entry as well. On XAUUSD I am targeting 1975 in the area of one standard
deviation above the mean VWAP but would be very happy to see price reach for
the upper BB at 1985.
GLD is the high volume EFT that is tracking the gold bullrun which started two weeks ago on July 3rd after
a downtrend for two months starting on May 2nd. This is not a leveraged ETF
as so a bit less volatile than JNUG or GDXU. On the 2H chart, I have added a
VWAP band line setup anchored into the pivot high.
On my analysis:
1. GLD is ascending through VWAP band lines in a VWAP breakout.
2. Volume is steady
3. The Price Volume Trend Oscillator went from a diminishing negative/red histogram
into green on July 5th.
4. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines crossed while under the histogram reversing a descent on July 17th and marking the end of a minor correction of the uptrend then confirmed by those
lines crossing the zero-line the following day.
I conclude that GLD is set up for a long trade. While others might simply take a trade of
stocks I will use call options to take a long position. My target is $190 between the
second and third positive standard deviations of the mean VWAP. I will purchase 50
options contracts for about $37 each expiring August 4th. I will hold all of them until
July 27th and liquidate half of them at the high of day on that Thursday expecting
Friday to be a down day. The remaining 25 contracts will be sold at the rate of
6 contracts per day until the overall position is closed. Overall, I expect to realize
200% in profits over the 12-13 trading days in the trade. I plan for a 15% stop loss and
expect the trade to be above break-even with the first stop loss advance which I expect
will be on Friday.
GLD , a bullish gold ETF LongGLD on the 4H chart has downtrended for 2 months. However, the supertrend is that of a
gradual trend up as shown by the green ascending line. The two indicators point to a reversal.
The MACD shows a cross of the K / D lines under a positive histogram and impending cross
over the horizontal zero line. The Chris Moody with dual RSI plots shows the RSI on the
weekly time frame in black to be trending down from 70 and settling at 50. The daily time
frame in blue bottomed at 29 and is now 44. This is a bullish divergence of the RSI as compared
with the price trend. Overall I expect a reversal with a trend up targeting $192 which is the
approximate pivot high of early May also confluent with two standard deviations above
the mean VWAP anchored to 2/1/23. The stop loss is to be set below the ascending support
at $176. Accordingly, a potential loss of $2 until the stop loss is raised to break-even
once price gets to $182.00. After that, the trade will be both risk and stress free.
XAUUSD- Extended View Long Bias Spot GoldXAUUSD on the daily chart has been in a trend down from $2179 since early May when its
candle wicks also reached into the zone between the lines two standard deviations above
two different anchored VWAPs set at the early and late February high and low pivots.
In the past week, Spot Gold pivoted above the support of the aVWAP lines one standard
deviation below the mean. The MACD indicator predicted the reversal with a double bottom
shown as a green line. Above the current price are the mean VWAP and the confluent POC line
of the long-term volume profile at 1959. From my analysis of these findings, I will take
a long trade entering @ 1959 targeting first 2000 and then 2060 based on the trending of the
aVWAP bands. I may also review the JNUG ETF and have already taken a position in GLD.
Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped?It's not that I am fundamentally bearish on gold. Actually, I am fundamentally bullish on gold.
But it's because I think the fundamentals of gold are bullish that this commodity is not bound to pump while the MMs have tipped their hands that they're going to sell Artificial Intelligence and Chinese Communist Party garbage to a willing horde of retail zombies and dead money hedge funds.
And so if gold is really to return to relatively significant lows, like say $1,500, the purpose would be accumulation for $2,500 and $3,000.
And if that's to happen, with the way the last three months of price action has been, the gold MM, which is really quite a shark, is extremely unlikely to allow the funds and retail cowboys who have been short under the triple top ATH at $2,089 to enjoy the ride down with them
This monthly is too obvious that new lows aren't going to come before the highs are purged:
And the weekly shows that the $1,936 dump rebalanced the gap created by the big March candle.
A significant calculation in the markets is rumors that came out on Friday that the CCP would be pumping some QE to save its crashing markets.
This news came on the back of names as big as Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, Henry Kissinger, and Condoleezza Rice either traveling to the mainland for the first time in years or attending virtually, along with the Starbucks and Pfizer CEOs.
So what's going on, if you ask me, is that the Party has once again been given a blood transfusion, and that blood transfusion may be in exchange for that gold it spent the last several months buying.
This would naturally mean that gold would pump so it can be sold at high prices and bought back even lower, with the dual purpose being that it would cripple the CCP's gold reserves, which are loaned on leverage.
Whenever you hear someone barking about how strong the CCP is, or worse, if they conflate "China" to "the Chinese Communist Party," you need to take a step back and ask yourself how a country whose lost tens or hundreds of millions of people to a pandemic it's still doing everything it can to cover up could possibly be strong.
It's not that the CCP is going to invade Taiwan. It's that NATO and the other global factions are thinking about how they can take over Beijing via Taiwan when the Party falls in the imminent future.
The persecution of Falun Gong by the Jiang Faction and the Communist Party itself in 1999 wasn't and isn't Xi Jinping's fault, but as the Party Chairman, his head hangs in the noose for this crime, a weakness that anyone can exploit at any time to get rid of Xi and the Party at the same time.
But the problem is that a lot of the western world and Europe and other countries have participated in the persecution, which has targeted 100 million spiritual practitioners and gone so far as to commit the sin of live organ harvesting.
And so this means that the situation in China is Mutually Assured Destruction, a real Game of Thrones, and ultimately the Heavens are playing them all for a fool together.
So, here's the trade:
Expect the $1,936 pivot to hold. (But $1,920 will also work)
Buy really here or anywhere under $1,950.
Be patient and don't get scared
Sell $2,150
Collect 7-12%
Buy wine and whiskey and treat your friends
Now the kicker is that shorting gold at $2,150-2,170 will be a really good trade, but for the bear case to really apply you want to see a liquidity purge and distribution, rather than a sweep.
Like, you want to see a wick or tweezers form on monthly bars, but you want to see gold spend some daily and/or weekly candles distributing and getting knocked down and trying again and getting knocked down over $2,100.
Otherwise an ATH that doesn't show signs of having its fever break can go quite literally anywhere, although the macro and timing does not currently make sense for this to be the case at present.
One of the best ways to play this is in the GLD ETF. Calls when it trades to about $178.5 with at least 3 months on the contract will print a lot of money closing over $200 if my trade is correct.
I can only tell you that the world is in trouble. A bull impulse when breadth is poor, macro conditions are poor, the timing doesn't make sense... all of them should be causes for alarm.
One day these distractions won't be maintained anymore and there will be significant problems we all have to face outside of the computer in the real world.
To make it through that, you have to be a good person, cultivate virtue, and go back to valuing and maintaining our traditions again.
US Dollar $DXY making history?Not long ago we mentioned the current strength in the US #DOLLAR.
Since then TVC:DXY has slowly crept higher and it is testing the downtrend.
Head & Shoulder top pattern is likely done. It is taking to long & pattern has been in place.
🚨🚨🚨
This is the 1st time that the US Dollar has not broken this major support level in the month it retested!
IS it really "Different this time"?
Looks like it!
Continues
#GOLD entering oversold territory but it's likely going lower, waiting to rebuy lots sold.
#SILVER maintains its downward trajectory & about to face up trend.
Precious metals are suppressed with derivatives. WHY?
Higher prices in these show that there are issues in the financial system.
HUGE Squeeze coming in future?
GDX heading down... It has been more than 6 months since I looked at GDX proper. Yes, I might have missed the last Gold/GDX rally, but I think that short run is about over...
Looking at the weekly chart for GDX, a decisive lowest close since March 2023 is representative of a end of a bull trend, if it is not already obvious enough. The near marubozu type down candle came after a quick dip and a lower high, to get a close near the lower low... which just prevails the downward momentum.
Few other notes...
1. a trendline support breakdown this coming week would accentuate the downside bias;
2. the MACD and VolDiv have crossed down and looks determined to crossunder the zero line;
3. any further breakdown bring it into the previous consolidation range. And a break in into the range suggest an extrusion on the other (lower) side of the range;
4. Noted that the USD appear to be gaining strength and the equity markets are about ripe for a retracement. Furthermore, the Gold analysis point to a further slide in Gold prices. Taken together, these 3 critical pillars for GDX are impacted, whcih gives little for the bullish case on GDX.
Down it goes... heads up!
GLD Bullish Outlook 06/26-30/2023AMEX:GLD is hot on my watch list as uncertainty in the world markets should cause investors to park their money in gold. AMEX:GLD is down -4% for the quarter and is due for a rebound.
Technical Analysis:
AMEX:GLD has been consolidating in a falling wedge and is approaching the .618 retrace at 177.24.
I lean bullish on AMEX:GLD as long as we don’t break the falling wedge structure and can hold above the gap at 176.18. I am expecting a gap fill to the upside at 181.37.
Bears will want to see this falling wedge invalidate with a gap to fill to the downside at 173.80.
Upside Targets: 178.75 → 179.84 → 181.08 → 181.97 → 183.21
Downside Targets: 177.78 → 176.82 → 176.20 → 174.83 → 174.46
The Gold Odyssey - Here we go again!Someone mentioned to me that Gold is an asset that never loses money. I took the effort to show previously that Gold can very well do a 20% drop over a slow bleed (months) before it travels back up months later too. I also warned that Gold appears not to be able to keep properly and well above 2000-2080. Since 2020 (the Gold Odyssey series started in 2019), there is a multiyear consolidation range between 1650 to 2050, roughly.
Having pointed all that out, it appears that Gold had given up the cling to 2000. Here is why:
1. There are lower lows and lower highs (clearer in Daily chart);
2. a clear breakdown of small consolidation range at 1960 support;
3. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv have crossed under their lagging signal lines; and
4. The TDST (Green dotted line) was broken out of and with long upper tailed candlesticks reversed back to break down of that TDST. When prices are above, the primary trend is bullish. Now it reverted back to a bearish primary trend. (This is part of TD Sequential rules).
Given the above, we can project that the most likely trajectory in the following months is down to 1680 (4Q2023), in a repeated pattern, for the third time, since 2020. There should be a stalling consolidation about 1800 too, so expect that.
Now, for this to happen, a few fundamental things need to align...
a. the USD should be rallying hard upwards;
b. the interest rates should be rising too;
c. inflation moderates; and
d. Possibly in alignment, can expect the equity markets to be bearish.
Heads up and take care!
ps. some dates projecting forward are marked. :)
🔥 Why A Bitcoin ETF Is Hyper Bullish: See Gold!There's been a lot of bullish news recently surrounding a potential Bitcoin ETF. This ETF has been filed by both Blackrock and Fidelty.
The potential approval of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) has the crypto community buzzing with excitement. A Bitcoin spot ETF could be a game-changer, fueling bullish momentum across the entire crypto market.
A Bitcoin spot ETF would simplify the investment process, making Bitcoin more accessible to a broader range of investors. It would eliminate barriers like complex wallets and security concerns, attracting retail and institutional players and driving increased adoption.
In order to determine the potential effects on the markets, we can take a look at a more recent approval of a commodity ETF: Gold.
As seen on the chart, Gold saw a massive ~310% gain over the span of 6.5 years once the ETF had been approved. It's hard to determine whether BTC will experience a similar growth path, but I think it's quite safe to assume that it's 100% bullish if more people can easily invest in this asset.
XAUUSD: Bullish Butterfly with Upside up $2,022Gold has Double Bottomed at the PCZ of a Bullish Butterfly that is visible on the 1 Hour time frame; if it plays out it could go up to at least $1,958 and at most $2,022
Once Twice Thrice, LongGold repeated this pattern a few times, its stayed in the trend line, you could try and get a discount to 1930-1955 area but when you zoom out to the daily i feel there is no point going against the trend unless you see a extreme discount then please share why
GOLD: What NEXT? Here we are looking at GOLD on the Weekly TF…
As you can see, GOLD just got rejected for the third time from the $2,080 level. When completely zoomed out, you can see that GOLD is trading in a massive bull flag, or in the handle of an even bigger cup and handle pattern.
If GOLD can consolidate and build up the power to break through this strong resistance, it will enter into price discovery, and begin a run to new highs…
I will continue to monitor this structure, and will update you when I see relevant updates in the chart…
Cheers!
$OTC:FNLP Key Support Line and Falling Wedge Pattern
Introduction
This concise analysis examines the silver chart, highlighting the significance of a key support line and the presence of a falling wedge pattern. These technical indicators provide insights into potential price movements and suggest a possible bullish outlook for silver.
Key Line of Support
The silver chart reveals a well-defined line of support that has held multiple times, demonstrating its significance. This support line acts as a price level where buying pressure tends to emerge, preventing further downward movement. The repeated bounces off this support line indicate its strength and suggest that buyers are actively participating at this level. Traders often consider such support lines as critical areas to monitor for potential buying opportunities.
Falling Wedge Pattern
Within the silver chart, a falling wedge pattern has emerged, characterized by converging trendlines with a downward slope. This pattern typically represents a temporary consolidation phase before a potential bullish breakout. The upper trendline, connecting the descending highs, and the lower trendline, connecting the ascending lows, create a narrowing wedge shape. The falling wedge pattern often indicates a gradual decrease in selling pressure and a potential shift towards upward momentum.
Anticipated Breakout
The falling wedge pattern suggests a potential bullish breakout in the future. As the price approaches the apex of the wedge, the narrowing range indicates decreasing volatility and a possible resolution in favor of the bulls. Traders closely monitor this pattern as a breakout above the upper trendline can signify the end of the consolidation phase and the start of an upward move. The falling wedge, combined with the strong support line, adds to the potential upside momentum for silver prices.
Confirmation Indicators
To further validate the potential bullish scenario, traders may look for supporting confirmation indicators. These may include positive divergences in oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or bullish candlestick patterns near the support line. Such indicators can strengthen the conviction in anticipating a bullish breakout and provide additional entry signals.
Conclusion
In conclusion, my analysis indicates a strong support line, a falling wedge pattern, and the support of favourable macroeconomic conditions, all pointing towards a bullish outlook. It's worth mentioning that my previous call on the same stock was well-timed , resulting in a ~ OTC:FNLPF 250% price increase. As I continue to closely monitor price action, I will consider these indicators and draw from my previous success when making informed decisions about investments in silver.
Gold Order Flow - Sell On Bounces After 'Circle' TriggerHey traders,
This is another post that centers around the use of the OFA script to decipher the path of least resistance.
Remember, as OFA traders, we simply let the market show its intent. We don't anticipate, we adapt to the dynamic flows.
Right now, the
GLD
market is sending a strong signal that bulls are in for some pain in days/weeks to come.
Why? Due to the price pattern identified by the script (these are called via 'diamonds' and 'circles').
The current formation of decreasing buy-side pressure followed by increasing sell-side is top-notch.
This type of realized order flow hints at a much lower target, with an ultimate objective of 168.00.
An entry around the 50% retracement is ideal to get you off to a great start. The risk-reward prospect is terrific (at least 3:1)
Remember, when using the OFA script, it comes with highly accurate signals that, at its core, apply 2 main areas of study:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Gold shows deflation is comingTechnicals:
Looking at this chart reminds me greatly of Bitcoin’s top in 2021. After a 5-wave move down there was an ABC to new ATHs just overshooting wave 5, before a massive C wave. I have this as a grand supercycle wave 4 correction. It is setting up to be an expanded flat correction with a deep C wave. So my target for my C-wave is the 1.618 fib level of wave A.
After the 5-wave move (Primary green) down from the ATH reached in 2011 red supercycle wave A was completed. What followed was a clear 5-wave move in a leading diagonal, creating wave A of red supercycle wave B. An ABC correction followed, and then an impulsive 5-wave move to complete red supercycle wave A. Since the completion of the red supercycle wave A, there has been a wave 1 and an expanded flat correction retracing nearly 100% of wave 1. And now we are beginning the third wave of this red supercycle wave C which will be the most bearish.
My Target for gold is 763.769
If price breaks above 2075.282 This wave count is invalidated.
Fundamentals:
According to Truflation, the real rate of inflation is now at 3%. This number is updated daily. The government number is believed to be lagging behind Truflation’s number by about 3-4 months. So if this is the case, the very crowned gold long trade will become unattractive as we reach the Fed’s target of 2%. Of course, the repercussions of their rapid rate hikes will continue to increase disinflation until it crosses the line to disinflation.
My assessment is shorting gold is likely the best trade out there at the moment. There is a 6 to 1 risk reward ratio.
$GOLD Support at the 20 weekly moving averageTVC:GOLD AMEX:GLD #GOLD #GOLDBUGS Double top rejected, a ton of support at the 20 moving weekly average and the horizontal trend line. Gold needs to consolidate in a bull flag before it can move higher.
XAUUSD Spot Gold ReversalOna 4H Chart XAUUSD has been trending down for 2 weeks from a double top at $2052 where
the Stochastic RSI put in a top at 100%. Price crossed above the upper Bollinger band before
its pivot high. As it trended down, it did retrace back up to the upper Bollinger band and then
resumed the downtrend heading outside the lower band and reaching a pivot low of $1954 on
Thursday, May 18th along with RS approaching zero. Price then reversed and put in an engulfing
bullish candle before closing out the trading week with a Doji. Price crossed through the black
trendline drawn onto the chart. The RSI indicator curled upward and is progressing to crossover
20. The volume profile shows the majority of the trading between $1992 and $2040 with the
mean at $2018. This would be the area of highest liquidity and volatility.
The Echo indicator (AI predictive tool of Luxalgo ) suggests a near-term rise in price and a
consolidation area of $ 1993 before another leg up into the high-volume area. Overall, I will
look to take a long position to begin the forex trading week upcoming as well as a gold ETF
such as GLD or even JNUG on the equities market.
