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US Dollar $DXY making history?Not long ago we mentioned the current strength in the US #DOLLAR. Since then TVC:DXY has slowly crept higher and it is testing the downtrend. Head & Shoulder top pattern is likely done. It is taking to long & pattern has been in place. 🚨🚨🚨 This is the 1st time that the US Dollar has not broken this major support level in the month it retested! IS it really "Different this time"? Looks like it! Continues #GOLD entering oversold territory but it's likely going lower, waiting to rebuy lots sold. #SILVER maintains its downward trajectory & about to face up trend. Precious metals are suppressed with derivatives. WHY? Higher prices in these show that there are issues in the financial system. HUGE Squeeze coming in future?
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
GDX heading down... It has been more than 6 months since I looked at GDX proper. Yes, I might have missed the last Gold/GDX rally, but I think that short run is about over... Looking at the weekly chart for GDX, a decisive lowest close since March 2023 is representative of a end of a bull trend, if it is not already obvious enough. The near marubozu type down candle came after a quick dip and a lower high, to get a close near the lower low... which just prevails the downward momentum. Few other notes... 1. a trendline support breakdown this coming week would accentuate the downside bias; 2. the MACD and VolDiv have crossed down and looks determined to crossunder the zero line; 3. any further breakdown bring it into the previous consolidation range. And a break in into the range suggest an extrusion on the other (lower) side of the range; 4. Noted that the USD appear to be gaining strength and the equity markets are about ripe for a retracement. Furthermore, the Gold analysis point to a further slide in Gold prices. Taken together, these 3 critical pillars for GDX are impacted, whcih gives little for the bullish case on GDX. Down it goes... heads up!
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
GLD Bullish Outlook 06/26-30/2023AMEX:GLD is hot on my watch list as uncertainty in the world markets should cause investors to park their money in gold. AMEX:GLD is down -4% for the quarter and is due for a rebound. Technical Analysis: AMEX:GLD has been consolidating in a falling wedge and is approaching the .618 retrace at 177.24. I lean bullish on AMEX:GLD as long as we don’t break the falling wedge structure and can hold above the gap at 176.18. I am expecting a gap fill to the upside at 181.37. Bears will want to see this falling wedge invalidate with a gap to fill to the downside at 173.80. Upside Targets: 178.75 → 179.84 → 181.08 → 181.97 → 183.21 Downside Targets: 177.78 → 176.82 → 176.20 → 174.83 → 174.46
AMEX:GLD
by peterjames_6
The Gold Odyssey - Here we go again!Someone mentioned to me that Gold is an asset that never loses money. I took the effort to show previously that Gold can very well do a 20% drop over a slow bleed (months) before it travels back up months later too. I also warned that Gold appears not to be able to keep properly and well above 2000-2080. Since 2020 (the Gold Odyssey series started in 2019), there is a multiyear consolidation range between 1650 to 2050, roughly. Having pointed all that out, it appears that Gold had given up the cling to 2000. Here is why: 1. There are lower lows and lower highs (clearer in Daily chart); 2. a clear breakdown of small consolidation range at 1960 support; 3. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv have crossed under their lagging signal lines; and 4. The TDST (Green dotted line) was broken out of and with long upper tailed candlesticks reversed back to break down of that TDST. When prices are above, the primary trend is bullish. Now it reverted back to a bearish primary trend. (This is part of TD Sequential rules). Given the above, we can project that the most likely trajectory in the following months is down to 1680 (4Q2023), in a repeated pattern, for the third time, since 2020. There should be a stalling consolidation about 1800 too, so expect that. Now, for this to happen, a few fundamental things need to align... a. the USD should be rallying hard upwards; b. the interest rates should be rising too; c. inflation moderates; and d. Possibly in alignment, can expect the equity markets to be bearish. Heads up and take care! ps. some dates projecting forward are marked. :)
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
1
🔥 Why A Bitcoin ETF Is Hyper Bullish: See Gold!There's been a lot of bullish news recently surrounding a potential Bitcoin ETF. This ETF has been filed by both Blackrock and Fidelty. The potential approval of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) has the crypto community buzzing with excitement. A Bitcoin spot ETF could be a game-changer, fueling bullish momentum across the entire crypto market. A Bitcoin spot ETF would simplify the investment process, making Bitcoin more accessible to a broader range of investors. It would eliminate barriers like complex wallets and security concerns, attracting retail and institutional players and driving increased adoption. In order to determine the potential effects on the markets, we can take a look at a more recent approval of a commodity ETF: Gold. As seen on the chart, Gold saw a massive ~310% gain over the span of 6.5 years once the ETF had been approved. It's hard to determine whether BTC will experience a similar growth path, but I think it's quite safe to assume that it's 100% bullish if more people can easily invest in this asset.
AMEX:GLDLong
by FieryTrading
1
GOLD: What NEXT? Here we are looking at GOLD on the Weekly TF… As you can see, GOLD just got rejected for the third time from the $2,080 level. When completely zoomed out, you can see that GOLD is trading in a massive bull flag, or in the handle of an even bigger cup and handle pattern. If GOLD can consolidate and build up the power to break through this strong resistance, it will enter into price discovery, and begin a run to new highs… I will continue to monitor this structure, and will update you when I see relevant updates in the chart… Cheers!
TVC:GOLD
by GarethSolowayOfficial
7
$OTC:FNLP Key Support Line and Falling Wedge Pattern Introduction This concise analysis examines the silver chart, highlighting the significance of a key support line and the presence of a falling wedge pattern. These technical indicators provide insights into potential price movements and suggest a possible bullish outlook for silver. Key Line of Support The silver chart reveals a well-defined line of support that has held multiple times, demonstrating its significance. This support line acts as a price level where buying pressure tends to emerge, preventing further downward movement. The repeated bounces off this support line indicate its strength and suggest that buyers are actively participating at this level. Traders often consider such support lines as critical areas to monitor for potential buying opportunities. Falling Wedge Pattern Within the silver chart, a falling wedge pattern has emerged, characterized by converging trendlines with a downward slope. This pattern typically represents a temporary consolidation phase before a potential bullish breakout. The upper trendline, connecting the descending highs, and the lower trendline, connecting the ascending lows, create a narrowing wedge shape. The falling wedge pattern often indicates a gradual decrease in selling pressure and a potential shift towards upward momentum. Anticipated Breakout The falling wedge pattern suggests a potential bullish breakout in the future. As the price approaches the apex of the wedge, the narrowing range indicates decreasing volatility and a possible resolution in favor of the bulls. Traders closely monitor this pattern as a breakout above the upper trendline can signify the end of the consolidation phase and the start of an upward move. The falling wedge, combined with the strong support line, adds to the potential upside momentum for silver prices. Confirmation Indicators To further validate the potential bullish scenario, traders may look for supporting confirmation indicators. These may include positive divergences in oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or bullish candlestick patterns near the support line. Such indicators can strengthen the conviction in anticipating a bullish breakout and provide additional entry signals. Conclusion In conclusion, my analysis indicates a strong support line, a falling wedge pattern, and the support of favourable macroeconomic conditions, all pointing towards a bullish outlook. It's worth mentioning that my previous call on the same stock was well-timed , resulting in a ~ OTC:FNLPF 250% price increase. As I continue to closely monitor price action, I will consider these indicators and draw from my previous success when making informed decisions about investments in silver.
LSE:FRESLong
by joepegler
Gold Order Flow - Sell On Bounces After 'Circle' TriggerHey traders, This is another post that centers around the use of the OFA script to decipher the path of least resistance. Remember, as OFA traders, we simply let the market show its intent. We don't anticipate, we adapt to the dynamic flows. Right now, the GLD market is sending a strong signal that bulls are in for some pain in days/weeks to come. Why? Due to the price pattern identified by the script (these are called via 'diamonds' and 'circles'). The current formation of decreasing buy-side pressure followed by increasing sell-side is top-notch. This type of realized order flow hints at a much lower target, with an ultimate objective of 168.00. An entry around the 50% retracement is ideal to get you off to a great start. The risk-reward prospect is terrific (at least 3:1) Remember, when using the OFA script, it comes with highly accurate signals that, at its core, apply 2 main areas of study: Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude? Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:GLDShort
by FlowState
Gold shows deflation is comingTechnicals: Looking at this chart reminds me greatly of Bitcoin’s top in 2021. After a 5-wave move down there was an ABC to new ATHs just overshooting wave 5, before a massive C wave. I have this as a grand supercycle wave 4 correction. It is setting up to be an expanded flat correction with a deep C wave. So my target for my C-wave is the 1.618 fib level of wave A. After the 5-wave move (Primary green) down from the ATH reached in 2011 red supercycle wave A was completed. What followed was a clear 5-wave move in a leading diagonal, creating wave A of red supercycle wave B. An ABC correction followed, and then an impulsive 5-wave move to complete red supercycle wave A. Since the completion of the red supercycle wave A, there has been a wave 1 and an expanded flat correction retracing nearly 100% of wave 1. And now we are beginning the third wave of this red supercycle wave C which will be the most bearish. My Target for gold is 763.769 If price breaks above 2075.282 This wave count is invalidated. Fundamentals: According to Truflation, the real rate of inflation is now at 3%. This number is updated daily. The government number is believed to be lagging behind Truflation’s number by about 3-4 months. So if this is the case, the very crowned gold long trade will become unattractive as we reach the Fed’s target of 2%. Of course, the repercussions of their rapid rate hikes will continue to increase disinflation until it crosses the line to disinflation. My assessment is shorting gold is likely the best trade out there at the moment. There is a 6 to 1 risk reward ratio.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Faux_Hubris
XAUUSD Spot Gold ReversalOna 4H Chart XAUUSD has been trending down for 2 weeks from a double top at $2052 where the Stochastic RSI put in a top at 100%. Price crossed above the upper Bollinger band before its pivot high. As it trended down, it did retrace back up to the upper Bollinger band and then resumed the downtrend heading outside the lower band and reaching a pivot low of $1954 on Thursday, May 18th along with RS approaching zero. Price then reversed and put in an engulfing bullish candle before closing out the trading week with a Doji. Price crossed through the black trendline drawn onto the chart. The RSI indicator curled upward and is progressing to crossover 20. The volume profile shows the majority of the trading between $1992 and $2040 with the mean at $2018. This would be the area of highest liquidity and volatility. The Echo indicator (AI predictive tool of Luxalgo ) suggests a near-term rise in price and a consolidation area of $ 1993 before another leg up into the high-volume area. Overall, I will look to take a long position to begin the forex trading week upcoming as well as a gold ETF such as GLD or even JNUG on the equities market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
Gold Bugs Squished?I've been talking about Gold COMEX:GC1! hitting a major high for my last two Livestreams (catch them Friday at 4pm Eastern after the market close). The current price action warrants a standalone post. Each Livestream for many months has had at least one person ask what I thought about Gold. It was very simple: Gold was trending UP to test the major Monthly highs. In many of my social market chats about two weeks ago my gold bug friends began getting very excited. I urged caution. Price MUST break the high and confirm the breakout before getting long at this major Resistance Level. Now it looks as of gold price is respecting this monthly high from the last few years. To be contrarian I had to short Gold (using AMEX:GLD ) based upon a Spike setup from Friday May 5th's high. Last week price pulled back and "should have gone" to retest and break the high. It did not and returned back inside the range. This sets up a short. I also know from taking market sentiment that a lot of traders may have gotten a bit overly optimistic. This could setup for a good pullback to at least the 1850 Level.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by norok
1
Gold Futures (GC) Weekly is Bull Flagging, But.....Gold is currently in a flag similar to that experienced last March and April. Last year's flag broke down, very unusual for this formation (normally it is a continuation pattern). Most likely the breakdown can be explained by the strong ramp up in the dollar index last year. Also, gold seasonality is usually weakest starting in April - June. This flag is very tight, and being very near the all time high of 2089.20 at the flag peak of 2085.4 -- so I am biased in thinking that this flag may not reverse, even should DXY show strength. Of course, there are numerous geopolitical and other macro events which can have a positive effect on gold, if they create uncertainty. Key areas to watch. A break below 1985.60 and hold and it will signal another flag breakdown. A break above and hold of 2085.40 (flag peak) and it signifies a bull flag continuation. These are simple areas to watch and are significant.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn13101
1
Gold Order Flow - One Script To Rule Them AllHello traders, Once again, the OFA script demonstrates its prowess... Through the synthesis of fractals-based order flow data, we can deduce potential future trends in a market that has experienced unprecedented volatility in recent times. Following the decisive breakout of 162.00 last Nov 2022 which left behind a double bottom, Gold was propelled towards 191.00 through a series of HH and HL patterns via the OFA script. With the latest two cycles printed consisting of greater amplitude and velocity by the bulls, which was met by tepid sell-side pressure as the OFA indicates, The path of least resistance continues to be higher. We will never claim to have foresight or certainty about upcoming developments. Instead, we will be attentive spectators of price fluctuations, allowing the OFA script to shoulder the burden of executing the next trade. Bear in mind the two essential aspects of the OFA indicator: Amplitude: A crucial hint in evaluating a trend's vitality is the extent of progress made by the dominant party controlling the trend. We must ask: Are the new stages in the active buy-sell side campaign, as recognized by the script, increasing or diminishing in amplitude? Momentum: When considering the range of price movements, amplitude accounts for only half of the equation. The remaining half involves the momentum or pace of the move. We must ask: Was the new stage established following a rapid, impulsive shift? Alternatively, did the price achieve a new low or high with the movement being lethargic, constrictive, and time-consuming to develop? A useful guideline is to count the number of candles it took to reach a new stage. VISIT MY PROFILE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE OFA SCRIPT.
AMEX:GLDLong
by FlowState
GLD Gold ETF Pullback for EntryGLD has been trending up and the chart shows that volume is increased in April / May as compared with March and is about relatively 2X. GLD is now priced at its all time high. On the trendline drawn, GLD is rising at a rate of approximately 5% monthly. Gold prices are reacting to economic uncertainties and the dollar value having its challenges. Today, price is down 1-2 % dropping towards the bottom of the Bollinger Bands providing a good long trade entry. Stop loss is one dollar below the bottom band while targets are at + 5% + 15% and +30% as a long duration swing trade expecting rising gold prices for at least six months. See also my idea on XAUSUD / Cup and Handle
AMEX:GLDLong
by AwesomeAvani
XAGUSD Spot Gold Cup and Handle Bull Trend ResumptionXAUUSD on the daily chart has a long-term cup and handle now in its final formation. Spot gold price has risen above the lip of the cup and is in position to ascend from there the height /depth of the cup for about another $100 on the current price based on the pattern to occur over the width of the cup or about 6-8 months. Any gold related instruments including miners, junior miners, ETFs like GLD, JNUG , NUGT and gold itself on the forex markets should be in an overall uptrend. Any further degradation in the AMEX:USD will further support Spot Gold rising. Using the Bollinger Band oscillator or Luxalgo I will try to buy when XAUUSD is at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands ( Red Histogram is high / Green Histogram is low ) and sell in an opposite fashion with positions on and off to profit from the uptrend ongoing.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
Trade Idea: GLD August 18th 210/June 9th 185 Long Put DiagonalWith GLD at or near all time highs, looking to buy the back month -90 delta put and sell the front expiry +30 delta to synthetically emulate a covered put with -60 delta or so. Will look to take profit at 110% of my cost basis (i.e., a 21.57 credit, resulting in a 1.96/$196 profit). Metrics: Max Loss: 19.61 debit Break Even: 190.39 relative to 189.64 spot (pre-market) Max Profit: The width of the spread (25.00) minus the debit paid (19.61) or 5.39 ($539) Will adjust price at open if necessary to get a fill.
AMEX:GLDShort
by NaughtyPines