GLDX
GLD Bearish ScenarioI can also see cup and handle on a Monthly chart which is why I wouldn't trade Gold either way at the moment. It's above Weekly SMA40 and I wouldn't short it for sure as long as that it the case. It's still holding VWAP from ATH as well.
Reason why I publish this idea is to be able to follow the price nothing more, it is not an investment advice of any kind, I'm a beginner trader with very limited experience and exposure to Markets still so take any idea you see from me with the grain of salt!!!
Reason why I charted bearish scenario is because I saw on Hedgeye that according to then Gold should spiral down so wanted to give that information a chance for a little contrarian practice.
Basically if it is correct I wouldn't short Gold before September/October this year. That's when R/R ratio seems to be the best.
Last time that was a nice 73ish % drop.
Good luck to all Gold traders out there. If you agree of disagree please do comment and share your own ideas, just no insults or sarcasm. Most of us on TW are here to learn and that takes time.
Gold 100% Potential - Cup and HandleThe cup and handle is a fairly reliable trading pattern, especially when we see it continue here on the long term time frames. Gold has been building this position for quite some time.
For those that are huge fans of this stable asset, the massive amount of money printing that can be seen coming from the FED is a shot in the dark for those who like to hold scarce assets. In a world where supply can be stimulated simply through printing, how do we retain some type of reality in the markets. They physical assets here will maintain a value sentiment as dollars are increasingly printed. They will inflate the prices of all the other asset classes, or at least, that is my current conjecture, Keep a close eye on your GLD trades here, or do as I do and ....
ALWAYS KEEP INVESTING!
Gold Sees Best Daily Gain since 2009Gold held above the 50% Fib level and horizontal support line, as expected in the previous gold chart, and saw its best daily gain today since March 2009 when the Federal Reserve expanded Quantitative Easing 1 during the global financial crisis. Price rallied +4.12% today from an opening price of $1,505 and closed at $1,567 on today's Federal Reserve announcement of Quantitative Easing 5 being expanded to an unlimited amount during the current coronavirus pandemic's affect on the US economy and financial system.
Price is now above the 38.2% Fib level putting gold back into bullish trend territory, but is finding resistance at the 23.6% Fib where price currently rests. Going forward, price is expected to remain above the 38.2% Fib as the Federal Reserve continues to increase the money supply via unlimited quantitative easing which will put bullish pressure on price to rise as a safehaven asset during a time of currency devaluation. Year-end price projection remains to be at test of the all-time high made in 2011 in the $2,000 range.
Short-term and long-term trends remain bullish.
Gold Testing 50% RetracementFriday saw the price of gold close at $1,484, down -14% from the recent high of $1,704 made earlier in March. Price has fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and is currently testing horizontal support at $1,450, which stems from a price peak made in July 2019 and then tested and held as support in November 2019.
This recent test of horizontal support is being backed up with added support at the 50% Fibonacci level which rests at $1,435. The 50% fib level represents the midway point between the August 2018 low and March 2020 high. A hold and bounce here would be a bullish 50% retracement which are historically good pullback levels to buy in Fibonacci retracements and usually indicate bottoms in price before the next advance occurs.
Should price fail to hold at horizontal support and the 50% fib level, the next levels of support to watch for and expect price to reach are the 61.8% fib level and the diagonal support trendline between $1,372-$1,400. A hold there would be critical as a loss of diagonal support and 61.8% fib level would indicate that the recent uptrend in price is likely switching back to a bearish price trend.
Gold has seen weakness during the recent global market selloff as traders and investors are forced to sell better performing assets at a gain in order to meet margin requirements in other losing positions. Gold saw a +50% gain from August 2018 to the March 2020 high, and is currently up +26% from the 2018 low.
The short-term view on gold remains bullish until/unless the 61.8% fib level is taken out at $1,372. All pullbacks in gold above that level should be viewed as bullish, especially with global central banks around the world increasing their money supplies at a record pace which will increase inflationary pressure on the price of gold to rise as traders and investors return to the safehaven asset in fear of the devaluation of their respective currencies.
PAAS - A random IdeaDaily Formations allow for bigger moves. I'm interested in shorting on this backtest.
Also, my interpretation of what might happen. 90% chance it won't follow the path correctly, but I like to let the mind wander.
GDXJ/GDX Ratio put a piercing line candleJuniors/Large producers ratio put a piercing line candle yesterday in the daily (not shown), right at the last weekly support/demand zone.
If confirmed, might be a good signal that Gold has a chance to go higher like the last time it happened and fight the outside weekly reversal which is an ominous sign on its own.
A close above 1,52 in the ratio will be good for the IH&S structure that exists both in miners and gold, hinting that 1,59-1,62 area is achievable.
Bear in mind, that both are still in a downtrend and last week's sentiment data does not yet reached pessimistic levels, while public opinion in Gold is at medium to low level and not yet in extreme negative zone. GOFO rates are negative for the last few weeks, always a good sign for PM complex longs.