GLENCORE Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
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1-23-2024
Strong downtrend with RED TrapZone established for days now. Price retraces with GREEN UMVD but the effect is not the same as RED UMVD - Obviously. Price is retracing a bit again with GREEN UMVD coming in now.
Glencore
Glencore ready to smash through its 6 month rectangleW Formation and Rectangle formation has formed since May 2023...
Now, we are definitely getting signs of upside, more than downside.
That's because the resources sector and precious metals sector is showing positive signs.
As we welcome 2024, investors will be using their bonuses and will be reinvesting in the new year which will lead to the January Effect.
Also, there is optimism in the air with America cooling off inflation rate and interest rate hikes.
Other indicators show upside for now including:
7>21 moving average (SHort term)
Price>200 (Bull market)
Target 1 will be at R131.00
Nickle Finds long term supportNickle Commodity Index DJ:DJCIIK
Monthly Chart
- Long Term Support Line (holding)
- DSS Bressert Cross ideal (TBC)
- On DSS cross confirmation you could enter a
trade or enter at current price & place a tight
stop under the Long Term Support line to protect
your position.
Glencore showing strong W and ready to break up and out to R136Glencore showing a potential W Formation.
We need the price to break above the neckline before we get further traction up.
Other indicators show strong upside to come including...
7>21 - Bullish
price >200 - Bullish
RSI>50 HIgher lows.
Target 1 for the resource company is at R136.20
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Founding: Glencore was founded in 1974 by Marc Rich, a controversial financier and commodities trader.
Name Origin: The name Glencore was derived from the words "Global Energy Commodities Resources". It was chosen when the company was taken public in 1994 after Marc Rich sold his stake.
Commodities Trading: Glencore is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies. It's a major player in the production and marketing of over 60 commodities.
Glencore operates in over 35 countries and employs approximately 145,000 people.
Initial Public Offering (IPO): Glencore went public in 2011 on both the London and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges. IN 2013, it listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) under the ticker "GLN".
Xstrata Merger: In 2013, Glencore completed a merger with Xstrata, a major global mining company, in a deal worth approximately $30 billion.
LESSON of the day: Wait for Strong and Confirmed BreakoutsMany people like to predict breakouts.
If there is one thing you learn today it's this.
Always WAIT for a strong and confirmed breakout.
There is a reason why the price hasn't breached the neckline (resistance). And that's because the fight is still on between the bulls and the bears.
Now that Glencore has broken down not only has it slanted the Cup and Handle pattern but also.
1. There is a Break- away gap - Bearish.
2. The price is below 200MA - Bearish
3. 7=21MA and looks to cross down.
Sure the price can turn up and close the gap, but the risk is too high!
So follow your strategy and wait for a confirmed breakout.
These lessons are important to learn before they become costly.
Glencore is could break down for the 1st time in years to R81.70M Formation has formed on Glencore.
This was prior to an ongoing uptrend, until last year.
Last year it moved into a range bounded state which has formed this M Formation near the end of 2022.
Now we can expect a break down any day now below the neckline.
There are other bear signs, and the biggest is RSI.
21>7 - Bearish
Price>200 - TEST
RSI has been forming lower highs since before the M formation.
This is an extremely Bearish divergence where we can expect the price to follow.
RSI<50
Target R81.70
Cobalt - Long; There is no such thing as a "cobalt mine"Cobalt occurs as a metal mining byproduct - mainly copper, zinc, etc. -, 80% of the world production is centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo - which is neither democratic nor a republic, or a state. (It's claim to fame is perpetual genocides, an endless civil war, accompanied with abject poverty.)
70% of cobalt refining capacity accompanied with worldwide cobalt mining interests is held by China. In short, the DRC has the cobalt and China owns the DRC.
The market recently became awash with the metal and prices promptly collapsed to multi-year lows. However, ...
... what about the "EV revolution"? ... (Which, I contend, is pure fiction on the scale as it is being imagined or rather, fantasized. But that's a longer story.)
The fundamental factors - i.e. the physics/chemistry - remain the same;
Lithium, the main component in almost every kind of electricity storage apparatus - i.e. batteries - is one of the least energy dense metal in the periodic table of elements. (Look at it's electron configuration and it will be immediately clear.) A pure lithium battery would be as effective as pissing into the wind. I.e. Lithium must be alloyed with something, most commonly with cobalt.
Long story short, there are two (2) potential plays here;
1) Glencore (OTC:GLNCY) - Long; The main chart; Watch for that Double-top at $14, though!
2) China Molybdenum (OTC:CMCLF) - Long; Should one trust the Chinese? ... (Might care to factor that in!)
TAKE PROFIT Reached Glencore - R120.00 TAKE PROFIT REACHED after two months of holding this trade - Glencore.
There was a super Diamond Formation that told us it was heading to a target of R120.00
It touched beautifully today after the long hold and seems to show more upside to come.
I'm out of this trade for now..
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We show both winners and losers as I've been in the markets since 2003 and it all comes with the territory.
GLENCORE ShortA potential short position has triggered on JSE:GLN based off our 3 momentum indicators, the stochastic, the MACD and the crossing of the two EMA's.
If triggered our target will be down at the R82 level. This coincides nicely with a strong support level from earlier this year and late last year.
Glencore Short Weekly ChartGlencore put in a double top back in March and April and since price has fallen 28%. Looking at Fib levels on the weekly chart price has now retraced 50% and has put in a hanging man candlestick on the weekly chart. The RSI is also dropping along with volume - making a short set up lucrative for the coming days/week.
Couple this with the fact that the UK 100 has had a great run recently coming off the lows with a consistent move higher. We are now however approaching all time high resistance where the market has U-Turned five times already this year. Indicating that we are in for a U-Turn back to the 200-period average. This impending reversal of the overall UK market will give strength to short positions in this market in the coming weeks. Of course, we don’t know for sure that it will reverse it could break out to new all-time highs but probabilities are in our favour. I do however foresee a bullish run for another week until price has retraced 100%.
Glencore downward moveJSE:GLN sins are finally catching up with the share price in the JSE, after admission of guilt in US & Europe. The stock was weak last week, it's trading below key MAs. I expect JSE:GLN to continue to push lower, resources stocks are weak, there's enough downward momentum in the sector, that can help JSE:GLN to break the horizontal support.
Glencore showing signs of downward momentumJSE:GLN is showing signs of downward momentum based on the indicators of our momentum strategy.
The EMAs crossed in a downwards direction yesterday while the stochastic both crossed downwards the day before.
I think we could see a move down towards the previous support area at around 5780
Is Glencore in a cyclical trend? I love this chart from an educational perspective. Markets move in cycles. Some sectors tend to be more cyclical than others and the resource sector definitely fits into that categorization and we can see that in the chart.
So from a fundamental perspective, can one assume that Glencore has started a new cyclical trend? A great South African manager that i highly respect put out a note on their exposure to Glencore and relative underweight positions in other diversified miners such as BHP and Anglo. From a fundamental perspective, Glencore mines commodities such as copper, nickel and zinc, all of which have fundamental reasons why the demand in these commodities should increase over time. Copper looks a bit pricey at the moment, perhaps in need of a health pull back but over time it should increase in price.
The signals suggest that the price of Glencore should rise over the short-term, however, i think it may then undergo a healthy pullback before its next leg upwards.
So what is one to make of all of this? Well either buy in now and hold for the next 2-3 years or until the fundamentals change, perhaps taking profits at certain points on the way up, or wait for the pull back (if it occurs) and then buy in. In other words, buy in and hold or sit on your hands and wait.
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