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Is the top behind us ? Has the downtrend begun ? I think so Key concepts I talked about in this video are outlined below. I wish I could cover more concepts and go into more detail but had a 20min time limit for the video. Maybe I could make a part 2. - false breakouts - global indices showing topping patterns and breaking down - FED balance sheet peaked in june 2020 - parabolic mania in tech stocks - PUT/ CALL ratio reflecting extreme complacency - 2nd wave of lockdowns and layoffs due to the virus
SP:SPXShort
by markethunter888
8
Chinese Yuan Chart Could Be More Important than the NasdaqThe monster rally in Nasdaq stocks has obviously grabbed most people’s attention recently. However there’s also been a major shift in currency markets as the U.S. dollar slides. That trend has paused for more than a month. Looking simply at the dollar index , it’s not clear whether the decline is ready to continue. But DXY is two-thirds European (euro and sterling). Today we want to look at another currency that’s not even a member of the dollar index: The Chinese Yuan . USDCNY consolidated under roughly 6.85 in the first half of September before breaking lower this week. That was a low in January, so it appears that old support has become resistance. The news flow is also noteworthy because China just reported better-than-expected industrial production. Interestingly, the South China Morning Post ran an editorial yesterday titled “China should seize the moment to free up controls on the yuan to expand its international use.” Coming from an officially sanctioned publication, that seems to indicate Beijing is going to let the yuan appreciate. (Which means USDCNY goes down.) Earlier in the month, Morgan Stanley predicted USDCNY will keep moving toward 6.6 by the end of 2021. Meanwhile, headlines for the U.S. dollar are just the opposite. Our economic data has rebounded somewhat, but more than half the jobs lost to coronavirus remain lost. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve will probably keep the dovishness coming at their meeting tomorrow. Most people probably cannot trade USDCNY. However, gains in the currency have previously lifted Chinese Internet stocks like Alibaba and other members of the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index . We entered 2020 expecting money to flow to China after global indexes were changed. Despite the pandemic, that process has been playing out as expected. Could it even accelerate into year end? TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
by TradeStation
U.S. Dollar May Be Starting a Long-Term SlideA lot of bearish things seem to be happening with the U.S. dollar index. First was a giant doji candlestick on the monthly chart in March. This occurred near the previous high from January 2017. A big reversal pattern at resistance is nothing to ignore. Second was a tightening range throughout April and most of May. DXY exited that pattern to the downside and proceeded to fall for eight straight sessions. That was its longest losing streak since October 2004. (See our Price Streak custom script.) Three weeks of consolidation came next, and now that price action is looking a lot like a bearish flag. Commodities and equities are also providing some intermarket signals. Silver had its biggest monthly gain in May since 2011. Copper had its best month in June since November 2016. There’s also been a rush to global stocks – especially Chinese stocks . And speaking of China, the yuan is having its biggest rally against the greenback today since March. (All these symbols move against the dollar.) This all makes sense when you consider the backdrop of a super-dovish Federal Reserve, plus calmer trade tensions with China. But finally, you have the long-term macro trend of DXY losing value. The greenback had a major decline between 1985 and 1995, then a rebound after the Asian and Russian crises. It slid again between 2002 and 2007 in the globalization rush – the age of “BRIC.” The 2010-15 period saw a countertrend rebound because of a slowdown in China and European problems like Greece. But now those are in the rearview mirror. The dollar, and most currencies, have been very stable since then. Will prices start moving again?
TVC:DXYShort
by TradeStation
Global Market AssumptionsHello.If we try to analyze the current situation by looking at 8 major pairs: 1 - U.S Dollar Currency Index 2 - S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index 3 - Gold Spot 4 - Gold / Silver Ratio (XAUXAG) 5 - S&P 500 Index 6 - Euro 7 - Australian Dollar 8 - U.S Dollar / Japanese Yen Assumptions A If 1 moves down towards the trend line: * The probability that 2 moves up towards the trend line increases. * Although nothing definitive can be said for 3 (due to the inflationary trend) If political and pandemic risks are low: Horizontal-downward movements can be observed in 3. * If the above moves occur at 3, the number 4 moves downwards towards its trend line. * While the movement at 4 is taking place, the number 5 can become a twin peak. * Horizontal upward movements may continue at 6 and 7. ( But the upward move at 6 may be more forceful.) * Downward movements can be observed at 8. B If 1 continues its upward movement above trendline : * There may be drastic drops in 2. * Although nothing definitive can be said for 3 (due to the inflationary trend) If political and pandemic risks are low: Horizontal-downward movements can be observed in 3. (This time With DXY, gold is suppressed and downward movements are more likely to occur.) * If the risk of political and pandemic continues, 4 remains above the trend line. (Vice versa for low politic and pandemic risk) * While the movement at 4 is taking place, the number 5 can can be drawn towards its own trend line. * There are sharp drops at 6 and 7. (Especially 7) (Firstly trendline pullbacks) * Sharp upward movements can be observed at 8. These are only typical assumptions. Regards.
TVC:DXY
by Noldo
3
Is There Something Going On Here? And Some Deeper Thoughts The Dow First thing I'm noticing is the red line seems to be the support on three occasions, with three distinct periods from 2018 where the DOW dropped to the red line and recovered. 2020 Corona crash has had a somewhat perplexing recovery, which to me defies absolutely all and any logic! It's absurd the DOW has rallied like it has given the economic horror story that's unfolding and mass unemployment, none of it remotely makes any sense. The absurdity of the recent gains on the questionable unverified results from Gilead shows that unless you're worth at least 8 figures, have wealthy connected family or friends then you shouldn't put your money in the markets at this point. ----------------- Personal Thoughts & Musings Is it setting up for another far steeper drop ? The logical brain of mine thinks that nothing lasts forever and infinite unending economic growth is impossible. In history and in nature, nothing lasts forever! The question is how long does this go on for ? I think we are teetering on the edge of the end of the "20th century / American" era and truly the beginning of the 21st century era, much of the way things were will slowly come to an end in another 30-50 years memories of the 20th will be like the think of the 18-19th centuries today. The defining moment that people will say the 20th century truly died is when Queen Elizabeth II passes in the near future.
TVC:DJIShort
by th3gr3k0sLaV
Global Dow - end stage of counter-trend rallyAs forecasted in the April 7 post, Global Dow surpassed the target at 377 and just crossed the 0.618 retracement, typical of second waves. Intermediate wave C is tracing minute wave 3 up, therefore we may see a probable additional growth of 5% before the trend reverse in direction to new lows. A possible target is at around 410. If the index cross down 354.80 the probable scenario is that the trend already reversed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GETUPDATES.
DJ:W1DOW
by SkylinePro
S&P 500 iNDEX First time !!Hello friends, its mine first view on s&p500 index, This is a clear Uptrend. The down arrows point to the lower highs of the trend while the up arrows point to the lower lows. The Uptrend turns into a Downtrend when price makes and confirms a higher low at the upper right side of the chart. That higher low is only confirmed by the following move Downward. They can be complementary. If you come to the same conclusion by doing two different types of analysis you will have much more confidence when taking a trade. Thanks
SP:SPXShort
by Trading_buddy
1
SPX | Fear and HopesThere's a large amount of speculation whether or not the United States will enter into a deep depression; And there's some potential for it. Housing Starts for single family homes has decreased to levels seen in the 1980's, meaning there will be more families moving into multy-family homes; or apartments. Housing asking prices are dropping along with demand shown by multi-sector consumers. The inflation rate hasn't moved, which is good for now, though the interest rate isn't looking so good with the possibility of negative rates. I guess you can say the injection of trillions of dollars by the FED has mitigated the fall, but I'm not even sure this is the beginning. My assumption is that SPX will have a lot more selling pressure than displayed this past week. New highs were lost in two days and the close was lower than the previous candles' close. Personally, I'm longing SH until I can see some fundamental upside for this economy. I speculate a prices being near $1600 before we start to recover from this potential Global Recession.
TVC:SPXShort
by jordvnflows