Hedging w/ $sqqq.Spot shares in from 26.12, stop at 24.7$.
Position to hedge other investments in case global markets continue to slide, <25% infection thesis still in play.
Invalidation is perfect for this setup as if this setup were to be invalidated, it means global markets would have reclaimed a huge support level and are now heading up back to cover most of the drawdown.
Global
Bitcoin Long 23-70kLet's set the targets, since impulse, cant be avoid anyway:
From previous bottom we find 3 targets on Fibo: 273.9%, 685%, 881%
The same we did on most global goals:
Tree targets: 23k, 55k, 70k
Lets find time interval on fibo, the same metod:
On 3 Fibo growth continued
On 4.236 Fibo we near by High
The same operation on most global:
23000 - July 2020
70000 - July 2021
ATR target from Global High-Low:
ATR from 52 Weeks Low - 1112
Distance Target - 112000$
Yet one...
Look at this Volume on Total CryptoCap:
Stock Markets OverviewWe have already mentioned that the S & P500 major rally started 57 weeks ago.
From this rise, Japan, England, Australia, China,
Hong Kong, India,
Norway, Sweden, Singapore, Turkey, South Africa, Spain Exchanges We observe that the U.S Dollar based Indices on the terminal.
But it should not be forgotten that:
these countries should be directed to the S & P500 ascension continues, as exits can be to safe ports.
The gold positions have not been resolved yet, and it does not seem easy to solve.
Regards.
Bitcoin future is promising, even in a downturn. Sure, we are in a downturn, a bear market; so what?
With a long term line of sight, it's easy to see where Bitcoin is going. Every country has laws that govern. Heavyweights like the United States and China impact global markets. Considering Bitcoin has the attention of the two largest economies in the world, it's understandable that the market is affected. Take the blinders off and look at the long term environment for Bitcoin. I will share what I see.
Path one:
Bitcoin in the next year establishes confidence with the support of the United States regulatory environment. China and the United States make a long term trade deal and Bitcoin is open for business between the two countries as a valid means for transacting wealth. China's digital yen is utilized for global stock exchanges and the United States citizens will use Bitcoin as a vehicle between the two currencies (US Dollar <> Bitcoin <> Yen).
Heres why. The dollar is losing foothold as a controlling global currency. With the digital yen hitting the global markets, the rest of the world gains immediate access to new financial tools based on the yen. The United States can use Bitcoin to compete as the transition to a digital dollar occurs. The United States will play a wait-and-see approach to a digital dollar, and they might just use Bitcoin as the vehicle to explore its options.
If this path plays out, the value of Bitcoin will explode. For instance, fast track adoption in various stock exchanges across the world. Digital assets of various types will grow and allow cross-chain functionality with Bitcoin blockchain. Debt for countries will reduce due to new asset class creating a means for governments to secure new wealth for their fiat systems.
Path two:
Bitcoin continues to have issues with unfair policies set by various countries (especially, the United States and China). As regulations are muddy, Bitcoin continues to see extream two-way volatility. It will be emotional with up and down movement that causes whiplash. Fortunately, it can't last forever. The trend will change and governments will adopt friendly policies to please global fintech demand. Once the dust settles and regulations have a clear path for working with Bitcoin technology, we will see a continuation with the global trend in Bitcoin wealth generation.
Path three:
Bitcoin is outlawed in China due to an anti-competition stance with the digital yen. The United States continues to attempt a trade deal and faces central banking issues with the digital yen and de-dollarization of China. The United States desires to compete and opens all markets to access the US Dollar using Bitcoin in various market verticals like ETF and so forth. Matter of fact, this might be one reason for such delays to move this direction. If this occurs, the United States will adopt an open FinTech market to the global community to combat China and its de-dollarization with the digital yen. Bitcoin will explode and be used as a means to reduce the United States deficit. We might get close to a world war with China if this occurs, so it's not a great path to see come to fruition.
Path four:
Bitcoin is outlawed by China and the United States. Allies of these countries will adopt the trend. Global markets suffer, riots break out, and the fight for privacy becomes a global issue. A global depression occurs that has never been seen before. Due to global communication Bitcoin rises from its ashes and creates a new global economy. If this happens, the Bitcoin value will go near zero and explode to incredible valuation.
Path five:
Bitcoin is outlawed by all governments. The network becomes weak and is taken over due to a lack of contribution to maturing its codebase. It's an all-out digital mess and becomes worthless. This path seems the least likely to occur.
In the end, most paths you can imagine lead to Bitcoin gaining new wealth generation abilities with services being adopted to complement regulatory environments. The long term outlook seems favorable for the technology. For this reason, I love blockchain technologies and will continue to build the skillset to compete in future economic environments in tech.
If it does not work out, oh well, it's been a wonderful ride. I will have stories to tell for generations to come :)
If you read this far, share your outlook. What is your thoughts regarding the potential paths for Bitcoin?
S&P 500 STRATEGIC OVERVIEWStrategically the support resistance levels in S&P 500, the channel entered the index,
and here we can observe the distributional sell signal from last week for this week (current bar).
Do not forget to read the notes in the presentation.
In summary, this week has been affected by distributional sales and I think it will continue until the closing.
We have been under the influence of the positive trend since October 21st.
There is no mention of a bear market.
GLOBAL X - DAILY CHART Hi, today we are going to talk about Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF and its current landscape.
This ETF that holds exposure to companies involved in the fertilizer industry, might be shaken since Corn and Soybeans could (or not) give a sweet surprise for investors and U.S farmers as the Corn Belt it's poised to once more fall on Donald Trump grace, after a tough year for farmers, that already it's been hurt by the ongoing Trade War between U.S and China, and felt backstabbed by the government since the negligence of the government in obligate smaller oil refineries to respect the requiring quota of biofuel use, which resulted in a restrained demand growth and a squeezing of prices.
Now, after the walk through the darkest valley, U.S farmers start to once more see the light as Trump, seeking to regain their trust and votes from the region that back in 2016 supported him to the most. The President has been using the so-called "phase one" of this attempt of Trade Deal to force China to buy $50 billion of their agricultural goods, Trump it's wanting so badly to reclaim its title of champion of the farmers that it's pushing to the signature of the deal, to be on the farmer state of Iowa. The only thing in the way is to the deal be concretized, which might just get a bit harder as Trump has signed Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019, giving support to Hong Kong protesters, and most possible dragging China ire towards the U.S considering the sensibility of China regarding its internal affairs.
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Global Market fundamental and technical analysisThe SPGI continues bounce on the 30 week moving average. Now the S&P 500 is doing well. There are many things covered by the media that are anomalies in life and not true reality for the world in the large scale. With the understanding of the big picture, the world is progressing forward with better policies and a reduction in conflict. Things will never be perfect but at this moment in time markets are rising . A lot of the smaller cap international stocks have pulled back from their initial rise with volume on the breakout the SPGI had in October 2019. The RSI seems to have momentum left in it, would be better if it was centered but it looks positive. This will eventually drop like it always does but right now I believe it will continue to go up along with the S&P 500.
Economic ThoughtsJust putting this idea out there as a concept the chart is just to help express what I'm saying, not any technical advice.
Recently everybody is screaming incoming recession, but I'm skeptical.
Whens the last time everyone saw the decline coming from so far away?
Theory: After the last recession there are measures put in place to help prevent such a large decline or crash. Are shady things still going on? Of course - but in my opinion not to the scale that they were in the mid 2000s. Instead of big recessions taking place occasionally I think we will see these periods of stagnation and slowed growth. The economy needs a "break" and psychologically things cant go up forever. The US economy is strong and has been strong for a very long time. Jobs are at a good place, consumer spending is good and people are generally happy to spend and borrow money. Yes there is an above average amount of political drama taking place but most of the large US companies continue to grow and pull the economy up with them. In my opinion this could be an area where we see these "slowdowns" (Indexes bouncing up and down returning to the same level) followed by more growth.
TLDR : no big crash - instead periods of time where nothing really happens
Could some global issue arise? yes of course but I think if things stay relatively calm globally this is a very possible scenario.
- 21
The Rise and The Fall of Apple Inc.What's up guys, so I've been checking AAPL recently and on the 1M time frame there does seem to be a lot of weakness, now, there are 2 scenerios I find possible,
1. Apple stock will continue with the bubble
2. We'll see a 90% correction followed by a recession on global markets.
$TBLT Turning out to be another interesting trade idea.Pretty good business news lately with Amazon strefront.
Still looking to test either .38 or .28 areas for support/new support.
Considering they're expanding their global reach this could be lucrative.
(Nothing I say is trading advice.)
Bad NFPRise in unemployment and horrible NFP. Farmers saying less than 35% of all feeder crop (corn and soy) were planted before the May 31st deadline fro insurance. Horrible flooding in the midwest lasting further and further into the planting season. Longer summer heat and warm winters a major cause for concern heading into those 2020 elections.
Further downtrend based on TA of previous cyclesBased on general sentiment of market and blockchain technologies finding difficulty to "stick" to real world applications. Coupled with energy around the world becoming more cost-affordable and anti-globalism sentiments still reverberating throughout various governments, I think the environment for a global, decentralized market will take longer to develop.