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Globaleconomy

Can Japan Weather the Semiconductor Tempest?In the intricate landscape of global semiconductor trade, Japan's recent decision to restrict exports of chipmaking equipment to China has ignited a tempest of geopolitical tensions. The move, while intended to limit China's technological advancements, risks triggering severe economic retaliation from Beijing. As a leading player in the semiconductor industry, Tokyo Electron finds itself caught in the crossfire, grappling with the potential consequences of this escalating dispute. The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of modern technology, is intricately intertwined with global economies. Disruptions to the supply of advanced chipmaking equipment could have far-reaching consequences, affecting industries from automotive manufacturing to artificial intelligence. The potential for economic retaliation from China, a major market for Japanese exports, further complicates the situation. Japan's decision to impose export controls is driven by a strategic imperative to limit China's technological capabilities. However, this strategy carries significant risks. China has responded with a strong warning, threatening severe economic retaliation. The broader geopolitical context further complicates the situation, as the United States and its allies have been working to limit China's technological advancements. The question remains: Can Japan successfully navigate this delicate balancing act, maintaining its economic interests while adhering to its strategic objectives? The answer to this enigma will likely shape the future of the semiconductor industry and the global technological landscape for years to come.
NYSE:TELShort
by signalmastermind
What's unraveling the economic powerhouse of Europe?Once a stalwart of European stability, Germany's economic engine is facing unprecedented challenges. This deep dive explores the intricate factors driving its recession and the far-reaching implications for the continent. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have wreaked havoc on Germany's economy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has disrupted energy supplies, increased production costs, and hindered global trade. Rising interest rates and weak global demand have further exacerbated the downturn. The European Central Bank's aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening investment and spending. Meanwhile, a global economic slowdown, driven by factors such as rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, has reduced demand for German exports, a crucial driver of its economy. The consequences for Germany and Europe are profound, with potential for increased unemployment, slower growth, and political instability. As Germany is one of Europe's largest economies, its downturn has a ripple effect on other countries in the region. The recession could lead to job losses, as businesses cut costs to weather the storm, exacerbating social tensions and increasing the burden on government welfare systems. Slower growth in Germany will contribute to slower growth in the Eurozone as a whole, limiting the ECB's ability to raise interest rates further and potentially hindering its efforts to combat inflation. Economic downturns can often lead to political instability, as governments face increased pressure to implement policies that alleviate economic hardship. This could lead to political gridlock or even changes in government. Can Germany weather this storm? Join us as we delve into the complexities of this economic enigma and explore potential paths forward.
XETR:DAXShort
by signalmastermind
$EURUSD Bulls are Back once AGAIN? - LONGEURUSD Financial Review: Navigating Current Conditions and Projecting Trends" Introduction: The FX:EURUSD currency pair is currently poised for significant developments, with a projected bullish trend following a rapid correction. This analysis incorporates both trend and technical indicators, providing insights into the potential future movements of the pair. Technical Analysis: Our technical analysis, conducted on the 2-hour timeframe using the w.aritas.io indicator, reveals a convergence of probability bands, specifically the On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), as well as Money Flow with Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). This convergence signals a stabilized market with reduced asset volatility, indicative of an equilibrium state. Minor fluctuations may trigger a bullish momentum, attracting further MoneyFlow into the asset. Anticipated Bullish Boost: We anticipate a bullish boost to commence as the pair approaches the critical zone around 1.08275 . Upon testing this zone, a light retracement is expected, followed by a resurgence of bullish momentum. This trend initially formed on October 16, 2023 , coinciding with positive movements in stocks and Treasury yields. Our projection suggests a continuation of this bullish trend towards our target profit zone, TP #2, around the 1.126 mark. USD Strength and Economic Resilience: In contrast to the EUR's projected bullish trend, we maintain the view that the USD is poised for broad strengthening into early 2024. This expectation is grounded in the economic resiliency of the United States and the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, with no imminent easing anticipated until the middle of the following year. These factors collectively position the Greenback favorably for the coming quarters. JPY Weakness and Intervention Concerns: Turning attention to the JPY, notable insights from Bloomberg.com highlight the potential for the yen to weaken by more than 10% due to the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve's tightening stance aimed at curbing inflation. The yen's potential decline, as suggested by Sakakibara, could reach levels near 160, prompting concerns of intervention by the Bank of Japan to mitigate its slide. Additional Context: For further context on the FX:USDJPY situation, readers are encouraged to explore the comprehensive analysis available at www.fxstreet.com This source provides valuable insights into the dynamics shaping the FX:USDJPY currency pair, offering a more detailed understanding of the factors influencing its movements. Conclusion: In summary, the FX:EURUSD pair is poised for a bullish trajectory , with technical indicators signaling a stabilized market. Concurrently, the USD is expected to strengthen, while the JPY faces potential weakness and intervention challenges. Traders and investors should remain vigilant, considering the nuanced interplay of global economic factors influencing currency markets.
Long
by wikitrades
3
Countries with the Highest Debt-to-GDP Ratio 🌍💰📈 The world's financial landscape is a tapestry of economic prowess and fiscal challenges. A critical indicator of a nation's economic health is its debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure that reveals the extent to which a country's debt burdens its economy. In this insightful exploration, we'll delve into the figures that highlight countries grappling with the highest debt-to-GDP ratios. With real-world examples, we'll shed light on the complexities of global debt dynamics and their potential impact on the world economy. Understanding Debt-to-GDP Ratio The debt-to-GDP ratio is a crucial metric that reflects a country's ability to manage its debt relative to the size of its economy. A higher ratio indicates a greater level of indebtedness. Let's examine why this metric is so significant and its implications: 1. Greece: A Tale of Economic Turmoil Greece serves as a prominent example of a country with a high debt-to-GDP ratio. In the early 2010s, Greece faced a sovereign debt crisis that shook the European Union. Its debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 180%, signaling unsustainable levels of debt. The crisis forced Greece to implement severe austerity measures and seek international bailouts. 2. Japan: A Unique Fiscal Challenge Japan represents a distinctive case where a high debt-to-GDP ratio coexists with economic stability. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is among the highest globally, surpassing 200%. However, it has maintained economic stability due to unique factors such as a high domestic savings rate and central bank policies. 3. United States: Juggling Debt and Economic Growth The United States, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100%, showcases the balance between debt and economic growth. While a high ratio can raise concerns, the U.S. has managed its debt effectively, leveraging its economic strength to service its obligations. The debt-to-GDP ratio is a critical barometer of a nation's fiscal health and economic stability. Understanding the complexities and nuances of this metric is essential for evaluating a country's financial resilience and potential risks. As we explore countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratios, it becomes evident that each nation's economic circumstances are unique. While a high ratio can signal challenges, factors such as economic policies, domestic savings, and global financial dynamics play pivotal roles in shaping a country's fiscal destiny. Ultimately, the global economy is an intricate web of financial interdependencies, and monitoring these debt ratios is a vital component of navigating this complex landscape. 🌍💰📈 Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
Education
by ProSignalsFx
8
BTC/USDT The September Fall and October Rise.Crypto's Rollercoaster: My Bold Take on What's Next Every time I sip my morning coffee and scroll through the latest crypto news, I can't help but feel a mix of excitement and apprehension. Let me share my two cents on where I think we're headed. Firstly, Binance and its fellow centralized exchanges (CEX) remind me of that popular kid in school who everyone wanted to be friends with. But here's the thing: for the crypto playground to truly flourish, we might need to find new friends. Their towering presence feels like a boulder blocking the path to the much-anticipated spot ETFs. I've got a gut feeling that as long as Binance wears the crown, we might be waiting a while for that ETF approval. Now, remember those days when we'd eagerly trade Pokémon cards in the schoolyard? That's how I view the liquidity game. Traditional finance (TradFi) used to be that kid with the rarest cards, but now, they're holding back. With major central banks acting all grown-up and tightening their grip, the fun days of easy trades seem like a distant memory. For crypto to be the cool kid again, DeFi needs a makeover. It should feel like finding that rare holographic card in your cereal box, not just another common card. Speaking of school, economics class taught me about the ebb and flow of global economies. Right now, it feels like we're in a tough exam period. With interest rates playing hard to get and real yields acting all high and mighty, it's tempting to stash our lunch money (read: investments) under the mattress. But here's my prediction: a few bad report cards (economic data) might just be the summer break we're waiting for. Lastly, remember the drama when someone owed someone else lunch money? That's the vibe I get from the current forced sellers in the crypto market. But gossip has it that once the air clears around these debts, we might see a happier playground. To wrap up my morning musings, crypto feels like that thrilling rollercoaster ride we dared each other to take. It's got its ups and downs, but boy, what a ride it's been! And I, for one, am strapped in and ready for the next loop.
Short
by osodatsismoso
Dr Copper ~ Snapshot TA / Contraction x Expansion = InflectionIt ain't easy being DR CAPITALCOM:COPPER Peaked in March 2022, only to crash -38% & bottomed-out in July 2022. Since then it has fluctuated between Contraction (will Global Economy collapse?) versus Expansion (will Global Economy recover?), while also contending with outlook of China's Economy, yeesh lol. Copper's price action has also been compressing, as descending trend-line squeezes current Trading Range against ascending Parallel Channel. This suggests momentum will eventually need to "pop" in either direction...but it could also continue trading sideways a little longer while more data is disseminated by Market Makers to make a confident decision, TBC. Tick tock, time is running out for the Doctor.. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) AMEX:COPX AMEX:CPER COMEX:HG1! COMEX:HG2!
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by BlueHatInvestor
Decoding Forex Currency Nicknames: Stories Behind the Symbols 💰 In the dynamic realm of forex trading, currencies often go by intriguing nicknames that reflect their historical, cultural, or economic significance. Understanding these popular currency nicknames not only adds a touch of flair to your trading knowledge but also provides insights into the stories behind the market's most traded pairs. This article delves into the fascinating world of currency nicknames, offering a glimpse into the unique monikers that traders use daily. Decoding Currency Nicknames Currency nicknames offer a glimpse into the cultural and economic fabric of a nation, often deriving from historical events, national symbols, or prevailing sentiments. Here are two prime examples: 1."Greenback" - United States Dollar (USD): The United States dollar earned the moniker "greenback" due to its distinct green color on the back of the banknotes. This nickname emerged during the American Civil War when the U.S. government issued fiat money in the form of Demand Notes, which had a green tint. The greenback represents one of the most widely recognized and traded currencies globally. 2."Pound Sterling" - British Pound (GBP): The British pound earned its nickname "pound sterling" from the Latin word "libra," which referred to a unit of weight. The term "sterling" originated from Old English and meant "strong" or "of high quality." Together, they emphasize the currency's historical ties to both weight and value. The pound sterling's rich history and its use as a benchmark in global finance make it a prominent player in the forex market. Significance of Currency Nicknames 1.Cultural Insight: Currency nicknames provide a cultural window into the countries they represent. Understanding these nicknames can offer a deeper appreciation of the economic and historical factors that shape a nation's identity. 2.Quick Communication: Traders often use nicknames for efficiency and convenience in communication. Referring to currencies by their nicknames streamlines conversations and allows for more seamless transactions. 3.Market Insight: Some nicknames can also provide insight into a currency's performance. For instance, a nickname that implies strength might suggest the currency's positive economic outlook. Examples of Currency Nicknames 1."Loonie" - Canadian Dollar (CAD): 2."Aussie" - Australian Dollar (AUD): Currency nicknames offer a window into the rich tapestry of history, culture, and economics that shape the global forex market. By understanding these monikers, traders gain not only a unique perspective but also a deeper connection to the currencies they trade. As you navigate the exciting world of forex, remember that each currency has its own story to tell, and their nicknames add a colorful layer to that narrative. 🌏💱🎙 Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
7
GB05Y - A show of hands!UK 5 YEAR GOVT BONDS YIELD It is recommended to wait for confirmation by show of hand on the asset; the three successive bearish candles occurring at the region below the rising TL may be indicating something.... too soon to call? Suspicions are that the main leagues are not yet ready to fully liquidate, that they may have banked some profits and reloaded with discount; simple shark meal as usual - not a difficult life or decision considering the massive capital and first-hand access to new information. If you feel so inclined, please leave your thoughts in the comments section below. Heed your DD!
TVC:GB05Y
by FroggyFX
Make America great again with Dollar.From 1985, DXY oscillated into falling wedge and nowadays rising on EUR weakness. This falling wedge got confirmed and trend is strong. Consumers prices rises to try accelerate worldwide economy. Damage was done in US by printing. However, the war in Europe destroying Euro. Many of Us, traders and investors thought this have to come sooner or later. With that money supply increase... Strong EUR, USD or Equal Euro to Dollar is not very good for markets. But markets raised 2 years, bad situation show up and Bear cycle going forward in Covid shadow. Basically, governments don't want you to be so rich all the time. Only way how to control world , rich people and companies is through markets. I personally expecting strong 5th major bullish wave in Stocks & Cryptocurrency markets. This would be quite quick for now ( markets are in 4th corrective wave ). It will always rise and fall. Exchanges want you drag into trades , speculations and liquidate. Future is coming so let's monitor this yellow fractal. : - ) I have always this 2 quotes on my mind because I don't feel in prosperity enviroment like and still have to pay taxes : "There are two main forms of wealth in today’s 2025 world: Land and Cryptocurrency." "In 2030, You’ll Own Nothing And Be Happy About It" Yours Emvo. *This is not any financial advice.
TVC:DXYLong
by Emvo10
Can the Madness Continue for CELH?Celsius Holdings has been trading like a meme stock as of late. News of a deal with Pepsico helped fuel the recent surge in stock price. The question I pose is will this bullish momentum in CELH continue despite a slowing global economy? Technicals: There are strong signs of bearish divergences on monthly and weekly timeframes, slightly weaker bearish divergence can be observed on the daily as well. Price action recently surpassed all-time highs around the 110 mark. This could be a head-fake/bull trap, given that price has yet to retest the support of 110. On the other hand, MACD on the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframe are all signaling strong bullish momentum. Volume has been strong in the past couple of months of trading but a large part of that is due to Pepsi entering a 550 million dollar stake in Celsius. Possible cup and handle being formed but also could be a double top of sorts. Technicals for CELH are honestly not the worst, however, the bearish divergence on the RSI should come as a concern to Celsius holders and potential investors. Fundamentals: CELH has a 8.6 billion market cap. Just as some comparisons Lincoln National Corporation is worth around 8.4 billion and BJ's Wholesale Club is worth around 9.8 billion. Celsius has a Trailing P/E of 491 and forward P/E of 303. P/S of 18 and a price to book of 36. Not even Tesla has valuation metrics this inflated. To add to the bearish view, since 05/20/2020 CELH insiders have exclusively sold shares, i.e., 100% of Celsius executives' trades have been sales over the past two-plus years. Dumping a total of 14.6 million shares in that period. Along with this, Revenue growth is decelerating, and gross margins have been slowly declining for several years. As the US heads into an economic slowdown I cannot imagine a scenario where CELH will have meaningful pricing power or any demand inelasticity, as their products are just too new and unproven, and also yet to be adopted by most food and beverage retailers ( yes, I realize the Pepsi involvement will likely help with CELH adoption). CELH is a wildly overvalued company. Macro: Economies across the world are contracting rather quickly. PMI numbers came out earlier this month showing a slowing in business activity in both developed and emerging countries. Europe is facing the possibility of hyperinflation and the ECB is not signaling a stop anytime soon in Monetary tightening. With those headwinds in mind and many more -like a US housing recession- playing out over the next years, it is incredibly hard for me to see continued price appreciation in Celsius Holdings' stock. ' Prediction: In all honesty I have been dead wrong on this stock before. All though it's not my base case, I do think bullish momentum could carry this one up to as much as 145 a share in the short/med term. Although further appreciation is a possibility I really do not see this company performing well over the coming years. Over the coming years CELH should see a revisit of the 19.1-7.21 range before a bottom is in place. As always this is not financial advice. Good Luck!
NASDAQ:CELHShort
by Gooby_Trades
ECONOMIC UNITED STATES GDP compared with Other NationsThis chart illustrates the GNP of the USA compared with others over a period of several decades. The USA is on a much slower trajectory of growth than all the other countries on the chart except Russia and Ukraine. This includes the Eurozone, China, India, Mexico, and others. This trend has been in place for decades. It makes for a poor prognosis for the future of the US economically, no matter how much our politicians and other influencers try to hide this.
ECONOMICS:USGNPEducation
by AwesomeAvani
1
A Bearish Call On Financial Markets and The Global Economy China/Europe/EM: The UK and the entirety of Europe are in trouble. The UK now experiencing double-digit inflation and to make matters worse they are facing extreme weather and an energy shortage going into the winter. All the while Putin's war is complicating European energy supply and political ties even further. China is experiencing civil unrest, mostly thanks to an ugly property crisis. China also is experiencing lower-than-expected GDP growth. China's economy slowing has large implications given its massive presence in global trade. Emerging markets are struggling partly due to an incredibly strong dollar as well as a tight global food/energy supply. US: The US housing market is in a recession with 6 straight months of declining sales and more importantly a monthly decrease in median home prices for the first time in years (the housing market gets hit first by rising rates… remember 08?). US consumer credit I.e., debt levels, are through the roof. Signaling that the consumer might not be as strong as market commentators are saying. Layoffs are increasing steadily, while inflation is staying high. I am bothered to see the number of peak inflation calls after just ONE MONTH of zero gains in headline inflation. The FED is now in a lose-lose scenario where they can continue to aggressively tighten and bring down this wildly levered up global economy or back out and try to save the issue for a later date. The latter would cause additions to the size of their already immense balance sheet and create an ultra-severe recession later down the line. Either way, the recent rate hikes have not at all been fully felt by markets, and add on the possibility that the FED truly commits to QT, then a few quarters down the line we will start to see a serious weakening of market conditions across the board (equities, bonds, real estate, you name it). Forecast: Risk assets globally are going to get decimated during the next several months of trading, especially low-quality speculative names. Crypto investors should prepare to see some nasty losses, BTC to 9800, and ETH to 575 seem attainable in the medium-term. S&P 500 will NOT make any substantial or sustainable gains over the 4300 mark, 3500 is my next low target. Nasdaq 100, like crypto, is in for a large selloff, next target: 10,200. VIX will rise substantially, and could easily double from current levels. The dollar will stay higher as US rates rally upward, likely well higher than markets currently have priced in. Some commodities will make new highs- nat gas- while others like oil are poised to depreciate modestly but remain historically high. Low/non-profitable, high debt companies- Wingstop and its zombie cohorts - are at high risk of bankruptcy in the coming quarters. Widespread bankruptcies are on the horizon. Things look a little too good to be true right now in financial markets… well that's because they are. On the bright side, this bear market bounce of the past 60ish days has provided a good opportunity to exit risk assets, load up on cash and begin to add on to short positions. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
ECONOMICS:USCCR
by Gooby_Trades
3
SP500 recovery or dead cat bounce?Hi traders this analysis is very simple and uses some basic methods. I'm using the "filling gaps" method, the SP500 During the last years this method has been simple but effective. I'm worried about the gap left in November 2020, the SP can easily go and fill it considering we are only 15% above it, and in June 2022 we dropped 12% in a single week. This gap confluates with the ATH before the COVID crisis, so by technical analysis we know: “Previous resistance, now new support.” So I am considering a bounce of the SP500 until 4000 and then possible sell off. All financial markets follow SP500 including crypto. So I'm expecting a DEAD CAT BOUNCE on all markets.
SP:SPX
by Ylesc4s
DXY macroview for 2022 - Will the history repeat?This analysis has a lot to look at. Lets begin with the DXY at the end of the 70s, those times my parents were just born, so I had to do research. The US 70s crisis. According to the information I gathered, this crisis was due to the trade balance deficit. A strong speculation against the dollar appeared due to the American economic weakness. In March of 1985 the DXY crashed 52% and by September of 1992 a bounce happened, this bounce took the DXY to the 0.5 Fib Retracement level, and when this level was reached, the .com bubble took place. In January of 2002 until February 2008 the DXY crashed 41% very similar to the previous scenario. (To make this easier to understand I drew a path using dotted lines, the pattern is similar except on the timing aspect.) So I think that the DXY will reach the 0.786 level area and then … darker days will come. I'm also considering the “The typical big cycle behind empires rises and declines” by Ray Dalio and also the fact that every 100 years empires suffer. 83 years have passed since the start of WWII, this war marked the beginning of the American empire, this means that we are 17 years away from the 100 anniversary, these 17 years coincide with the emergence of China as the 1st world power. This is all I have to say for this analysis, I appreciate your attention
TVC:DXY
by Ylesc4s
Bullish Triangle in Emerging MarketsThe iShares Emerging Markets ETF is one of the most active symbols for tracking global growth. It rallied hard in the fourth quarter, stalled in February and has been consolidating since. Now some interesting patterns may be appearing on the chart. First, EEM dove below $52 a month ago but quickly snapped back. It formed a “kicker” candlestick pattern in the process. That was followed by a series of higher lows under $54.50. The result is a bullish triangle that’s squeezed into an increasingly tight range. Third, the consolidation has occurred along the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and below the 50-day SMA. Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) just rose above the 21-day EMA. That’s often used as a signal for shorter-term momentum truing more bullish. Finally, MACD has been steadily rising all month. Traders may want to watch for a potential breakout from this range. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
AMEX:EEM
by TradeStation
1
CNBC: "BABA stock could forecast the global economy's next move"CNBC news: www.cnbc.com One Chinese stock could forecast the global economy’s next move. Key points: Alibaba “stock started rolling over in very early January before the Chinese stock market did and certainly before the global economy started to slow down. So in other words, its weakness was a good leading indicator to tell us that the coronavirus was going to have a bigger impact than a lot of people thought,” Maley said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” Alibaba stock executed a double top pattern before the first crash and is now heading replicate the pattern again. I personally wouldn't take this as any kind of clear sign as I'm doubtful of how good of a leading indicator Alibaba stock is for the global and U.S. economy. However it's interesting to wait and see how things play out for both, the S&P 500 and Alibaba.
NYSE:BABA
by krisu619
S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Rally could end here Hey everyone, here's the analysis on SPX. Follow us, leave a like and comment on stock ideas you look forward to seeing next! Analysis: R1 zone is a strong resistance and breakout zone and price could drop to our S1 zone at 2541.5. If this level does not hold, it could drop lower to our next support zone, as illustrated by the black lines. Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading and investing. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Trading BEAN and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All contents featured here are solely for educational purposes and ARE NOT investment or trading advices. Please do your own due diligence and trade at your own risk.
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingBean
Coca-Cola Co (KO) - Opportunity to SELLHey everyone, here's the analysis on KO. Hit the LIKE button, follow us & leave a comment on stock ideas you want to see next! Summary: Current price could drop from our R1 zone to our S1 zone, presenting us with a good opportunity to sell. Action: Sell Limit: 45.34 Stop Loss: 52.00 Take Profit: 35.00 Analysis: Monthly trend line was broken and re-tested with a strong rejection off our R2 zone, as captured by the recent spike. R1 zone is holding out nicely as a resistance and current price could drop to our S1 zone. Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading and investing. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Trading BEAN and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All contents featured here are solely for educational purposes and ARE NOT investment or trading advices. Please do your own due diligence and trade at your own risk.
NYSE:KOShort
by TradingBean
Global Recession Price Targets Recession In the UK we came to the end of the financial year and at this point the end to the first quarter for the global economy. Governments around the world will now declare that GDP our economic production has decreased, and unemployment has increased. We’ve seen all major central banks update fiscal and monetary policy, the Fed has announced a 6.2 trillion stimulus package. S&P 500 has seen the most significant downturn in history. What can we expect over the next coming months? The main catalyst for this recession is global debt, housing debt, energy industry debt, household consumer debt, and corporation debt. This is the everything bubble. It has been further fueled by COVID-19, The pandemic has caused Global quarantines and lockdowns. Consumers are being told to stay at home for a period of 2 to 3 weeks at which point the infection will be reviewed and the quarantine assessed. Consumers and not driving the vehicles this is reducing demand for oil and gas. Consumers spending habits have reduced significantly emphasizing a decline in economic activity. Non-essential Businesses have been closed indefinitely this has had a knock-on effect on people’s jobs and employment. Many are waiting for government funding packages to provide financial support during self-isolation and unemployment. We can see an extortionate amount of government spending with no max parameters in place. Over the next few months we will have to see how cases increase and how companies will be affected we will need to see how cold it is treated and how effective the quarantining is. These quarantines are not a one off I have been implemented to slow the spread of the infection and once they have lifted and the infection reemerges, they will be forced again to Quarantine. Businesses and executives know that this will occur and so will be hesitant to open or continue their business operations, they will be on likely to begin recruitment and re-employment because of this. This has a significant knock-on affect the economic activity. Governments suppressing the spread of infection in order to curve the peak demand on to healthcare services. Health officials are waiting for a vaccine to be developed or for herd immunity, both of these can take many years. All of these factors contribute towards fear uncertainty and doubt in the general public. This is setting up to be a depression, the great depression 2.0 What does this mean for SNP 500 index? For me look at the 2001.com bubble price fell 50% in the bear market. In the 2008 housing crisis the price sale 58%. If we continue this pattern into our current circumstances from our all-time high of around US$3400, we are likely to fall50% again placing the S&P 500 index at 1700, this is the decline of over 1700 points. If we use the all-time highs from 2001 and 2008, We can conclude a resistance for our current downturn of around US$1500. We need support, we can see support at US$1800 in 2014 and 2016 Low’s. And this gives us are likely target price range for this current recession, however if we breach and full-blown resistance of US$1500 I’m confident that we will reach loads of US$800 this sort of drop and contraction in the overall economy will be defined as a depression and it will have significant adverse effects on the globe. Each and every financial crisis governments have attempted to stimulate the economy and we see a short-term correction from the stimulation. By the long time it doesn’t help realistically the sessions depressions and the business cycles will continue to occur because the global economy is built on continuous quanitivie easing and liquidity injections. I hate to be so pessimistic. However, there is optimism for we investors Have the greatest opportunity to enter the markets of multiple industries exceptionally low prices and we will likely see corrections up to all-time high of 2019 US$3,400. Realistically this timeframe is likely to be up to 7 to 12 years until we even get close to that price again. Could we be in the midst of the financial systems collapse?!
TVC:SPXShort
by H_Woodrow
4