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Globaleconomy

Bullish Triangle in Emerging MarketsThe iShares Emerging Markets ETF is one of the most active symbols for tracking global growth. It rallied hard in the fourth quarter, stalled in February and has been consolidating since. Now some interesting patterns may be appearing on the chart. First, EEM dove below $52 a month ago but quickly snapped back. It formed a “kicker” candlestick pattern in the process. That was followed by a series of higher lows under $54.50. The result is a bullish triangle that’s squeezed into an increasingly tight range. Third, the consolidation has occurred along the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and below the 50-day SMA. Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) just rose above the 21-day EMA. That’s often used as a signal for shorter-term momentum truing more bullish. Finally, MACD has been steadily rising all month. Traders may want to watch for a potential breakout from this range. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
AMEX:EEM
by TradeStation
1
CNBC: "BABA stock could forecast the global economy's next move"CNBC news: www.cnbc.com One Chinese stock could forecast the global economy’s next move. Key points: Alibaba “stock started rolling over in very early January before the Chinese stock market did and certainly before the global economy started to slow down. So in other words, its weakness was a good leading indicator to tell us that the coronavirus was going to have a bigger impact than a lot of people thought,” Maley said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” Alibaba stock executed a double top pattern before the first crash and is now heading replicate the pattern again. I personally wouldn't take this as any kind of clear sign as I'm doubtful of how good of a leading indicator Alibaba stock is for the global and U.S. economy. However it's interesting to wait and see how things play out for both, the S&P 500 and Alibaba.
NYSE:BABA
by krisu619
S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Rally could end here Hey everyone, here's the analysis on SPX. Follow us, leave a like and comment on stock ideas you look forward to seeing next! Analysis: R1 zone is a strong resistance and breakout zone and price could drop to our S1 zone at 2541.5. If this level does not hold, it could drop lower to our next support zone, as illustrated by the black lines. Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading and investing. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Trading BEAN and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All contents featured here are solely for educational purposes and ARE NOT investment or trading advices. Please do your own due diligence and trade at your own risk.
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingBean
Coca-Cola Co (KO) - Opportunity to SELLHey everyone, here's the analysis on KO. Hit the LIKE button, follow us & leave a comment on stock ideas you want to see next! Summary: Current price could drop from our R1 zone to our S1 zone, presenting us with a good opportunity to sell. Action: Sell Limit: 45.34 Stop Loss: 52.00 Take Profit: 35.00 Analysis: Monthly trend line was broken and re-tested with a strong rejection off our R2 zone, as captured by the recent spike. R1 zone is holding out nicely as a resistance and current price could drop to our S1 zone. Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading and investing. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Trading BEAN and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All contents featured here are solely for educational purposes and ARE NOT investment or trading advices. Please do your own due diligence and trade at your own risk.
NYSE:KOShort
by TradingBean
Global Recession Price Targets Recession In the UK we came to the end of the financial year and at this point the end to the first quarter for the global economy. Governments around the world will now declare that GDP our economic production has decreased, and unemployment has increased. We’ve seen all major central banks update fiscal and monetary policy, the Fed has announced a 6.2 trillion stimulus package. S&P 500 has seen the most significant downturn in history. What can we expect over the next coming months? The main catalyst for this recession is global debt, housing debt, energy industry debt, household consumer debt, and corporation debt. This is the everything bubble. It has been further fueled by COVID-19, The pandemic has caused Global quarantines and lockdowns. Consumers are being told to stay at home for a period of 2 to 3 weeks at which point the infection will be reviewed and the quarantine assessed. Consumers and not driving the vehicles this is reducing demand for oil and gas. Consumers spending habits have reduced significantly emphasizing a decline in economic activity. Non-essential Businesses have been closed indefinitely this has had a knock-on effect on people’s jobs and employment. Many are waiting for government funding packages to provide financial support during self-isolation and unemployment. We can see an extortionate amount of government spending with no max parameters in place. Over the next few months we will have to see how cases increase and how companies will be affected we will need to see how cold it is treated and how effective the quarantining is. These quarantines are not a one off I have been implemented to slow the spread of the infection and once they have lifted and the infection reemerges, they will be forced again to Quarantine. Businesses and executives know that this will occur and so will be hesitant to open or continue their business operations, they will be on likely to begin recruitment and re-employment because of this. This has a significant knock-on affect the economic activity. Governments suppressing the spread of infection in order to curve the peak demand on to healthcare services. Health officials are waiting for a vaccine to be developed or for herd immunity, both of these can take many years. All of these factors contribute towards fear uncertainty and doubt in the general public. This is setting up to be a depression, the great depression 2.0 What does this mean for SNP 500 index? For me look at the 2001.com bubble price fell 50% in the bear market. In the 2008 housing crisis the price sale 58%. If we continue this pattern into our current circumstances from our all-time high of around US$3400, we are likely to fall50% again placing the S&P 500 index at 1700, this is the decline of over 1700 points. If we use the all-time highs from 2001 and 2008, We can conclude a resistance for our current downturn of around US$1500. We need support, we can see support at US$1800 in 2014 and 2016 Low’s. And this gives us are likely target price range for this current recession, however if we breach and full-blown resistance of US$1500 I’m confident that we will reach loads of US$800 this sort of drop and contraction in the overall economy will be defined as a depression and it will have significant adverse effects on the globe. Each and every financial crisis governments have attempted to stimulate the economy and we see a short-term correction from the stimulation. By the long time it doesn’t help realistically the sessions depressions and the business cycles will continue to occur because the global economy is built on continuous quanitivie easing and liquidity injections. I hate to be so pessimistic. However, there is optimism for we investors Have the greatest opportunity to enter the markets of multiple industries exceptionally low prices and we will likely see corrections up to all-time high of 2019 US$3,400. Realistically this timeframe is likely to be up to 7 to 12 years until we even get close to that price again. Could we be in the midst of the financial systems collapse?!
TVC:SPXShort
by H_Woodrow
4
S&P at support, will it break it or make a U-turn ??!!S&P trading at 2509. It made a recent low of 2345 which is a very stong support. Right now it did bounce from that support, but in coming days will it protect that support or will break it. Time only will tell but chances are that it will not break that support as from the Elliot Wave perspective this fall from the all time high clearly looks like an ABC . If at all it breaks then 2130 is in place which is the next important level. One can wait for the appropriate levels and act accordingly.
TVC:SPX
by trademaker88
Epidemic is fading & expanding, the Germany recessionThe basic news background is still unchanged: the number of new cases in China is decreasing (+/-500 per day), that is, the epidemic is decreasing. But this is offset by an increase in the number of cases outside of China. And an epidemic from local is increasingly striving to become global. Lockdown in Northern Italy, panic in Iran, growth in the number of cases in South Korea (already under 1000), lower forecasts for financial results from leading companies - all this puts pressure on risky assets, the outcome of which continues. Experts continue to voice new estimates of the damage caused by the epidemic to the global economy. For example, at Oxford Economics Ltd. voiced a specific damage figure: minus $1 trillion of global GDP. Recall that the damage includes direct losses from the downtime of the Chinese economy, losses in tourism and entertainment, as well as in the destruction of global supply chains, a decrease in global trade and investment. At the same time, news about the development of an effective vaccine (the release is scheduled for April), as well as about the desire to allocate about $ 2.5 billion to the Trump administration to fight the epidemic and develop a vaccine, helped to temporarily defuse the situation, which made it possible yesterday to buy gold at great prices. In general, the tactics of buying gold on the slopes proved to be quite effective. So today we will continue to use it, especially since yesterday gave clear price guidelines - where the price might go. Macroeconomic statistics naturally continue to remain in the shadow of news about the epidemic. Nevertheless, we continue to monitor the state of the global economy. Germany reported yesterday on GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth turns up zero. Thus, the recession in the leading Eurozone economy was delayed for 3 months. But it looks almost inevitable. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, pretty upset buyers in the oil market. The point is that OPEC+ was never able to agree on anything. Against the background of expectations of a decrease in oil demand in the world, the news looks like a bearish signal. Recall that we recommend looking for points for oil sales - the fundamental background is so far extremely negative. Well, do not forget to sell euros on growth, as, for example, this could be done yesterday. The economic situation in the Eurozone looks extremely unsightly, and the visit of the coronavirus to Italy (over 200 patients) makes the sale of the euro, in our opinion, an almost risk-free transaction. Our basic positions today are unchanged: we are looking for points for buying gold (but we are careful - we buy on the slopes with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY with small stops.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2
China comes back to life, experts calculate lossesChina yesterday began to actively restore economic and industrial activity in the country. Judging by official figures, the epidemic has begun to decline, so there is reason to believe that the worst is over. In this light, yesterday's growth in demand for risky assets is generally explainable. Perhaps the global economy in general, and China in particular, will get off easily. At least Bloomberg analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be extremely short-term. Although they note, in the first quarter of China's GDP growth will slow down to 4.5%. In general, the uncertainty with economic damage is likely to be a factor restraining another bout of unbridled optimism in the financial markets. The fact is that its scope can be more serious and tangible. For example, Simon McAdam from Capital Economics believes that the coronavirus will cost the world economy $ 280 billion and ultimately lead to the fact that the world economy in the first quarter of 2020 will not grow for the first time since 2009. JPMorgan analysts expect China’s GDP to grow by only 1% y/y in the first quarter (they predicted an increase of 6% y/y before the epidemic). Goldman Sachs expects the coronavirus to subtract 2% from the global GDP. And Morgan Stanley recently proposed how to measure the real extent of the downtime of the Chinese economy - by analyzing the level of air pollution. According to their calculations, air pollution in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Chengdu is only 20-50% of historical values. This may mean that human activity here (transportation and industrial production) is only 50-80% of the usual. In general, the optimists or pessimists will determine the dynamics of prices in financial markets on who ultimately turns out to be right. Uncertainty just hangs in the air, which means that for now, it is better to trade inside the day with small stops. We will look for points to buy gold and the Japanese yen intraday. We will sell oil at the time of its growth. Also, we will buy the British pound. Yesterday's data on GDP (+ 1.1% y/y against the forecast of 0.8% y/y) and industrial production (+ 0.1% against the forecast + 0.3%) did not give rise to sales and important support 1,29. So, a rebound up is quite likely.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
4
Time "X" is getting closer, Boris may be celebrating his victoryIn yesterday’s review, we already noted that this week may be decisive for several financial assets, and the global economy as a whole. On December 15, the United States may introduce tariffs on goods from China and thus bring trade wars to a new level. It's entirely up to an agreement between the parties. Even though we have heard positive statements for more than a month, the situation looks more and more menacing day by day. Although the probability of the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the United States and China is quite high, we will continue to look for points to buy safe-haven assets today. This recommendation will remain relevant until the actual conclusion of the contract. Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange market, is getting ready for Johnson's victory in parliamentary elections in the UK. According to recent polls, the Conservative Party will be ahead of the Labor Party by at least 10%. Recall, for Brexit, this means the end of the story - Johnson will be able to present his version of the deal Britain will finally leave the EU with the deal. For the pound, this is a powerful fundamental positive background. In this regard, we continue to recommend the purchase of the pound. It may well grow in the foreseeable future by several hundred pips. Since we are talking about the pound, we note that today will be published statistics on the UK. So you need to act with an eye on the data on GDP, trade balance and industrial production. Speaking of our other trading ideas for today, they are unchanged. Oil purchases still seem like a great idea to us in light of the latest OPEC + decision. Dollar sales are also promising.
by Trade24Fx
1
BTC – what if – Part V – Global Economies – Long-termHi Guys! As short term we can expect a small correction on BTC, long-term we are sure it will be worth hundreds of thousands dollars and it will revolutionize at least modern economy. As we love infographics (who doesn’t ? ) we want to share with you another hypothetical money influx into the crypto market. So today we are mesmerized by the infographic provided by weforum.org with cooperation with again Jeff Desjardins (Visual Capitalist). Here is the link www.weforum.org The latest estimate from the World Bank puts global GDP at roughly $80 trillion in nominal terms for 2017. Once you click on the link you will find visualization called Voronoi diagram. You will find there, major economies with data which say how much each economy contribute to the global economy (in %) as well as the nominal amount of goods(in US dollar) they produced in 2017. So here are a couple of examples • USA – $19,38T (nearly 25% of the global economy) • China – $12,24T (nearly 15,4% of the global economy) • Japan – $4,87T(nearly 6,13% of the global economy) • Germany – $3,68T (4,63% of the global economy) • UK – $2,62T (3,3%of the global economy) • France – $2,58T (3,25% of the global economy) • India – $2,6T (3,27% of the global economy) • Brazil – $2,06T (2,59% of the global economy) • Canada – $1,65T (2,08% of the global economy) Current BTC dominance is 54% and the current market cap is $114 billion So let’s do the math. Let’s assume just one tiny 1% of the global annual economy which is $800 billion. It means $432 billion goes to BTC. When we add 114 to 432 it will give $544 billion which is nearly 480% gain. It means the price of the single Bitcoin would be nearly $32000. This looks pretty awesome, doesn’t it? We will repeat these calculations with regard to certain numbers which are given above. • USA alone – the price of the single BTC would be $13 000 • China alone - the price of the single BTC would be $10 400 • Japan, Germany, UK, France - the price of the single BTC would be $10 931 • India, Brazil, Canada – the price of the single BTC would be $8600 So our dear! Remember to be an evangelist of the crypto and BTC. Tell everyone how great and big invention it is! Tell them how we can use them. Tell them how many aspects of the economy wait for such solution presented by the crypto. DO IT EVERY DAY AMONG YOUR FRIENDS, NEIGHBOURS, FAMILY MEMBERS AND AT WORK. Try to convince them to buy some crypto. It will pay off. In the end, all of us will earn money and have a better future. REALLY! Please do share your thoughts with us regarding such scenario and this evangelist approach. ARE YOU IN? MASSIVE Hugs! WBM Team
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by WBM_Team
5