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Globalliquidity

Global Liquidity Index Against BTCHeres the global liquidity index mapped against BTC and its past cycle data for reference. Im sure you can spot the positive correlation it has.... When global liquidity increases, risk on assets such as BTC increase due to an influx of new liquidity in money markets. We have been consolidating for 2 years in the global liquidity index in an ascending triangle. I am expecting it to push up, break out, retest similar to the prior cycle fractal and continue higher, in turn pushing money markets including BTC into ATHs
Long
by marshyyy
1
The Global Liquidity Index is looking very interesting here.The GLI is looking very interesting at these levels. It's currently bouncing around within the Fibonacci retracement levels shown. Stocks and crypto usually perform better during times of increased liquidity for obvious reasons. Now that we are heading into a period where central banks around the world are propping up markets with freshly printed cash, we may see this index set a new high, which will be good for asset prices overall. Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
AMEX:IWM
by MetaShackle
Macro Monday 61 - Fed Balance Sheet Signals Liquidity BounceMacro Monday 61 Fed Balance Sheet Hits Long Term Supporting Trend Line The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet The balance sheet is published weekly, typically on Thursday afternoons, and it provides valuable information on the direction of global liquidity and the fed’s monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increases, it means that the central bank is acquiring more assets. This expansion can occur through purchases of Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities, or other financial instruments. The increase in assets typically leads to greater liquidity in the financial system and can influence interest rates. Conversely, a decrease in the balance sheet indicates asset sales and reduced liquidity The Chart - FRED:WALCL ▫️ Since April 2022 the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet has reduced from $8.973 trillion to $7.140 trillion (reduction of $1.833 Trillion). ▫️ Right now, the chart has signaled that we have hit a critical diagonal trend line support (red line on chart). ▫️ We have hit this red trend line twice in the past (Sept 2019 & Aug 2008) and on both occasions it bounced from the red trend line and the balance sheet thereafter increased significantly for 2 to 5 years. If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have held the line or fallen below it. What does the following mean to you? ✅High likelihood of interest rate reductions in Sept. ✅Apparent stabilization of the rate of inflation (U.S) ✅A current stable labor market in the U.S ⏳The possibility of the balance sheet bouncing from trend support and increasing from the support line as it did in the past for 2 years+ (Increasing Global Liquidity). Versus 🚨 The yield curve un-inverting (moving above 0) 🚨 Sahm Rule Triggered 🚨 The marginal increase in the U.S. Unemployment Rate which is consistent with prior recessions. 🚨 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless claims have had increases consistent with pre recession historic activity. 🚨Job openings reducing since March 2022 from approx. 12m to 9m (this would be the largest pre recession drop ever if followed by a recession. 🚨 Warren Buffet sitting on the biggest pile of cash ever. Does this all say “soft landing” imminent or should we be worried? In my opinion, we will know by Jan 2026. Its a big window of time, but the timing is the biggest challenge, and if we can take one thing from the above, volatility is guaranteed. Happy Trading PUKA
FRED:WALCLLong
by PukaCharts
2
Global Liquidity Cycles vs Bitcoin CyclesIn this analysis, we will compare the Global Liquidity Cycles with Bitcoin Cycles on the weekly timeframe. The top pane shows the Bitcoin weekly price, while the bottom panes showcases Global Liquidity and Bitcoin cycles. Bitcoin tops (the bottom pane) are highlighted in red with a level of 75+ and the bottoms are highlighted in green with a level of 15 or lower. In the middle pane (second up from bottom), we can see the global liquidity cycles. The tops are shown with values of 90+ and the bottoms are shown with a value of 30 or less. The vertical gray lines help to illustrate how the global liquidity cycles align with the Bitcoin cycles. The bottom two panes include projections into the future, with values projected with a 4-year and 8-year offset. This analysis allows us to understand the projected cycles for the current market top, with the middle of 2025 as the market top for both the global liquidity and bitcoin. It's fascinating (and a blessing) that Bitcoin aligns so well with global liquidity, enabling investors with knowledge of these high-level cycles to better time the market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by thefluffyones
5
Macro Monday 4 - Global Net Liquidity and SPX500Global Net Liquidity and SPX 500 Comparison The Global Net Liquidity (“GNL”) indicator provides an overview of how five major central banks liquidity provisions are collectively performing. This allows us to get a sense of whether global money supply is increasing (expansionary) or decreasing (contractionary). The GNL can provide a general indication of how much liquid funds are available in Global Bank Reserves. When there is increasing liquidity, lending in all forms to the consumer is less burdensome/restrictive for the Banks and thus consumers typically have access to more finance. If GNL is increasing this can indicate that more money is available to be lent by the Banks and spent by the consumer and businesses, and when GNL is contracting it can indicate less money is circulating and less funds are available for consumers and businesses which can negatively affect overall economic performance. GNL is available by searching for “Global Net Liquidity” in the indicator section on TradingView. Full credit for the GNL indicator goes to Dharmatech who created/copyrighted this specific indicator on TradingView. There are many Global Liquidity Indicators available on TradingView, some have more banks and metrics included, others less, this is just the one of the main indicators focusing on the big five central banks. I fully intend on making my own Global Net Liquidity Indicator which factors in the other forms of liquidity and other Banks for a more accurate indication. Whilst the impact of smaller global liquidity providers/central banks are less impactful, including them might just offer us an edge week to week. What is included in this GNL: We add the following: - Fed Balance sheet (WALCL) - Japanese Balance sheet (FRED:JPNASSETS) Converted to USD - Bank of China Balance Sheet (CNCBBS) Converted to USD - UK Balance Sheet (GBCBBS) Converted to USD - EU Balance Sheet (ECBASSET) Converted to USD And we deduct: - Reverse Repo Market (RRPONTSYD) - Treasury General Account (WTREGEN) The Chart Please acknowledge that this chart idea has built into it a speculative projection that factors in a number of generalized technical and fundamental considerations/reference points. Lets DIG IN! 1. From a TA perspective we are relying heavily on one data period from 2018 – 2020 on the GNL /S&P500 which is not ideal however a similar pattern from this period may be playing out in an amplified way at present for both. 2. From a general fundamental standpoint we draw a correlation to the Great Inflation period (1965 – 1982) but we hone in on the early years from 1966 – 1973 as these early years are similar to the high inflationary period we find ourselves stepping into at present. 3. In both 1 and 2 above the S&P500 went through significant price volatility which in both instances took the form of a megaphone pattern. Megaphone patterns have been showing up a lot in the market recently, Tesla being a case in point. Megaphone patterns are more common in volatile markets and can offer us traders or investors a structural framework to work within. Considering 1, 2 and 3 above we speculate that we may see a similar large megaphone pattern play out for the S&P500. This is illustrated in a previously shared chart called “A Crazy S&P Idea”. If you check this idea and hit play, you'll see we are currently tracking the 1966 - 1973 Great Inflation Fractal very closely. In summary: o In the past, long term GNL Contraction resulted in significant S&P500 Volatility. o In 2018 a sudden 8 month sharp 10% GNL decline as the S&P500 was continuing to new highs was an advance warning of a subsequent 14% decline in the S&P500. This is expressed on the chart as a Negative divergence. o A similar Negative Divergence is currently playing out. As noted the last Negative Divergence in 2018 took 8 months to complete. This would be Aug/Sept 2023 as a possible mid-term top under the current scenario after which we could expect a >10% pullback. It is important to recognise that the timeframes I am projecting and the price action are patterns that may play out as we find ourselves in similar but not identical circumstances. It is important that we recognise that this pattern may not play out at all. A few things are certain though, Global Net Liquidity is contracting, volatility is expected as a result and the rest is looking into the past for similar patterns to help anticipate potential structures as they evolve. One such pattern which seems plausible is the megaphone, however the S&P500 could be forming a parallel channel here or a different pattern altogether. Time will tell. If all I have done in the above chart is created awareness of GNL and of the current short term negative divergence, I think that is enough. The rest is just possible outcomes with absolutely no guarantees. I also hope that by reviewing the Great Inflationary Periods price action fractal that it can help frame in our minds just how much price volatility could be ahead of us. On a recent chart I shared which focused on the Yield Curve Inversion the maximum timeframe for a recession to commence once the yield curve first turns back up towards the 0% level is 22 months. The first definitive turn up was in March 2023 suggesting that the maximum window before a recession could potentially start is 22 months from March 2023 which is January 2025. Never has a recession taken longer than that 22 months to occur after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards the 0% level. For this reason I have included January 2025 as the potential megaphone top. This also coincides with the megaphone fractal pattern from the Great Inflation Period. I am not saying that this is exactly how it will play out but there is some confluence in the timeframes. I hope you find these charts and their correlations helpful. It will be fascinating to see how these eventually play out. PUKA
SP:SPX
by PukaCharts