Get started

Globalmacro

FUNDAMENTAL PREDISPOSITION SCENARIOOANDA:GBPUSD In these times the economies from an endogenous standpoint are facing uncertain futures. The UK economy has been highly impacted by the pandemic as have others, yet the UK have successfully rolled out and produced numerous vaccinations and are distributing it to other economies all over. This is boosting the UK output and manufacturing & international trade after seeing these sectors fall to unprecedented levels. UK manufacturing is back up to pre-pandemic levels yet is giving us extreme inflation outlook for the future while the services sector is still deteriorating as restriction's from the government continue to halt this sector from functioning as normal, Meaning financial help is inevitable to keep as many struggling businesses as possible alive. Consumer sentiment outlook has risen as confidence re-grows after the the vaccination programme is well underway. The construction / housing sector has also risen to previous high level readings, As construction & housing permits are being approved to keep the money flow and sector alive through the whole pandemic. Printing of M2 money supply is still maintained at a level of nearly 2.7 million a week 18% annualised rate this slightly lower than in march 2020 when we seen an annualised rate of 65%. Interest Rates maintain a low 0f 0.1% as deflationary measures, But we can now start to see inflation starting in the CPI & PPI prices. Unemployment stably high over the 5.0 mark. Government 10Y rates slowly starting to rise as inflation slowly is taking place and offering steadily higher rates of return as they try to reduce the debt bill on the deficit spending due to high spending on domestic goods to boost economic output & injections to help sectors. Looking at this information on a relative basis to the U.S economy, numbers are slightly similar yet U.S numbers are larger due to a obviously larger economy but inflationary measures have kicked in quicker in the U.S and inflationary scores are higher than those in the UK. Relative GDP is showing that the U.S is still growing at a faster rate than the UK. With the uncertainty of the pandemic & current market prices still overlooking all ideas, I will be waiting to make a move on this pair when the time is right. My fundamental predisposition on the G/U pair is SHORT. COT reports backing this in favour as the data for this has flipped into negative for the start of this year, But the current market is in a rally & on the long term technical side, has closed and consistently traded well above a long term level of support at around the 1.34 level. If the market continues to rally on the hopes of a vaccine driven outlook, I will look to short this pair at around the 1.42 level giving that the economic data has no dramatic change or may even look to take a position back below the 1.33 level if price already takes a turn and trades comfortably.
Short
by MacroSpace
Eco/monetary news n°27: The FUD is more than just FUD> After 3 months of election fraud suspicions/allegations Myanmar military arrested the state leader & president *********************** 2021 off to a good start. Unsurprisingly it has begun. After winning the general elections with 80% of the votes (not counting the fixed 25% the military get) the heads of the ruling party, state leader and president were removed by the military which claims the evidence of fraud got too big to ignore. A general is now state leader, and the VP is now president, for 1 year until new elections happen. Of course, all the usual 🤡 have blindly jumped to their press rooms and their keyboards to "condemn the coup" and we have not heard the side of the burmese military. It's bad when the unelected military have political power, but it's great when social networks and the media have UNLIMITED POOOOOWEEEER! Joe Biden has done what you'd expect, threats of sanctions, but China might have its own word to say, especially now that east asia (1/3 of the world) are in the process of switching to their own economic area, something that is huge but has gone under the radar of the western media (with their own digital currency which was never going to be Bitcoin lmao at those that thought otherwise). This obviously adds to the paranoia of the western ruling class which is being threatened in Europe, and poo'ed their pants in the US when the capitol was stormed. A contested election that ends up in arrests? An estimated 80% of the US military supports Trump? They are getting nervous. > Defund the police: US White House panicking and more resolved than ever to turn the US into a police state 😆 *********************** Part of the reasons the WH is panicking is what I wrote in the previous point: populism, elections contest, a very real CH raid (irrational people become fully aware of something when it happens, when they physically see it happen they really start caring), and now a very real coup in Myanmar. Antifa & BLM have been rioting, they ignored it to win an election but they know it and they want to fight it. They also are afraid of civilian Trump supporters. So yeah, they are really turning the country in a police state. I crack up each time I see a braindead tv guy say that "Now that Trump is gone we are returning to normal" with shinny eyes and a big smile on his face. "Back to normal", where did I hear that before? Boy this is just the start. Textbook complacency and denial. > Top epidemiologists publish covid papers that make EU bureaucrats look stupid & France far-right would win 😏 *********************** The EU, and the EU representatives are being shaken. The french president, which is the least smart one since at least 1950 (I don't know the previous ones), is started to rage and panic, he called the France "a country of 66 million prosecutors" and whined that it was normal to make mistakes "we all make them every single day". Really? Every day? How bad are you? Calamity Joe. Even the mainstream parties and media are starting to ask questions, here is an article about the Swedish health agency asking clarity on what it is paying for: www.reuters.com   Here is a paper by Ioannidis, the world nb 1 epidemiologist (203 h-index), showing that lockdowns were very likely to be useless (and even favor the spread of the virus), as I predicted 9 months ago I may add: www.medrxiv.org He recently wrote "Congratulations on your editorial highlighting the depressing levels of “corruption” taking place in the name of “beating the pandemic”. Scrutiny certainly deserves to be directed towards conflicts of interest within members of SAGE and scientific/medical advisors..." Link to the full thing: www.bmj.com Things are looking grim for the liberal bourgeois globalist "elite". Times are changing. Ah back in 2002 the France major far right party got to the presidential 2nd turn and average people voted in mass to "be a barrier to radical extremism", in 2017 they were in the 2nd turn again and got 33% votes, and now a poll showed they had 50% vote intentions. People showing their discontent, I'm not sure they read the program of the Rassemblement National, cutting a hand for stealing an apple man this is harsh, ok I exaggerate but barely. And even with 1/5 of the votes they only get a handful of parliamentary seats, so I guess the first female president could only rule as a dictator? What an opposition, during a recent liberty-restriction vote in France here was the opposition (there are 577 deputies): Les républicains (centre-right in Europe, left of US democrats): 15/105 Socialistes (they need no introduction): 5/29 La France insoumise (radical left "rebels"): 5/17 - Where did they go? They talk a lot, and then? They had swimming pool? (French people will understand) Rassemblement National (far right): 0/6 - They are loving it, they would take harsher measures if they could, and the french would vote for this "opposition" 🤦‍♂️ In France the whole executive branch of the government is elected by the president, so this vote is important, the president is the head of state and face of the country, the Prime Minister is I guess the most powerful politician, technically he is 2nd after the president since the president can sack him and change him but he's the one that runs the country, an unelected guy that kissed enough bums to get nominated, and has no plan (seriously, past PMs got interviewed years later and they went "no idea how I ended up here, I had no plan no idea what to do I just followed"). I know this is a little long, but hey during the "covid emergency" the executive in France and Europe has completely bypassed the legislators (congress), soooo... If the far right gets nominated, even without any legislative power... If 60k deaths is enough for an emergency, they'll find something. I want to congratulate all the high IQ liberals that set a precedent to enable the next Hitlers to become dictators without even trying. Great job. I'm actually genuinely impressed. > Davos New World Order chat: Putin & Xi Jinping warn elites will lead to war that will "end our civilization" 💥 *********************** The chat with the "common folk" has been postponed to June, but the usual head of states / governments chats have taken place. Just going to link the articles. 1- The Putin article "The crackdown on civil liberties by the elites will lead to a terrible war", with a link to a video of him speaking via CNBC: newspunch.com 2- Winnie the Pooh sperging something about a cold war: www.hindustantimes.com 3- They spoke of global taxation of tech giants at Davos, and Germany says they spoke to Yellen which seems to agree! About time the US paid its fair share to Europe. Damn I am shaking while I am writing this. They have been scamming the world for too long. I do not support "eat the rich" UNLESS it's tech giants. F*** them. YEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! altnewscoin.com > BIS says banks representing 1/5 of the world population will release a Digital Currency in the next 3 years *********************** You know Bitcoin maximalist logic: => Since this is happening, it means digital currencies are getting adopted. This is good for Bitcoin. => If they would not be doing this, Bitcoin has a monopoly on the DC market. This is good for Bitcoin. www.finextra.com Also, "A recent survey indicates that 86% of central banks are conducting research or development in the area of CBDC". The most recent speech they uploaded: www.bis.org A little quote for fun: "Above all, investors must be cognisant that Bitcoin may well break down altogether. Bitcoin needs a hugely energy-intensive protocol, called “proof of work”, to safely process transactions. Currently, so-called miners sustain the system’s security, and are rewarded with newly minted coins. A sad side effect is that the system uses more electricity than all of Switzerland. In the future, as Bitcoin approaches its maximum supply of 21 million coins, the “seigniorage” to miners will decline. As a result, wait times will increase..." > IMF warns of risks (zzz): IMF finds new words: warns of ‘exceptional uncertainty’ in vaccine-driven recovery 😁 *********************** The IMF raises their GDP growth predictions and will increase them even more if the US approves of a 2 trillion relief package, wow this sounds like great news! Why don't we print infinite money? Infinite growth! "GDP is up 8000% this year after we printed 10000% of our MZM and spent it randomly on troll projects" wow so much progress! 🧠 financialpost.com Oh and they "warn of risks", that's not even funny anymore. Maybe the US economy grows by 20%, and my short position on the USD also grows by 20%?
by MrRenev
2
Dollar Index Resembles This Moment in Time Some traders may remember the historic selloff in the U.S. dollar that began in late 2002. Current conditions appear similar. Notice on this chart how the U.S. dollar index pushed to a new 52-week low and then consolidated. Notice how the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) tried to turn higher but failed. Notice how DXY also tested the 100-day SMA and failed. Now look at this chart from 2001-2002, showing similar events. Also consider that both 2002 and 2020 followed periods of dollar strength and troubles overseas. The late 1990s had the global debt crises, while the last 5-8 years had ongoing weakness in Europe. Speaking of Europe, everyone’s waiting for a deal between Westminster and Brussels to avert a “hard Brexit” on December 31. An agreement ending the uncertainty would probably spur confidence in the euro and drag the dollar index lower. Finally, consider that the dollar’s breakdown in late 2002 was followed by several years of global stocks outperforming. Something similar could occur now, especially given the ongoing strength in Chinese stocks and relative “cheapness” of European stocks (based on P/E ratios). TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
TVC:DXYShort
by TradeStation
11
State of Everything - HTF Technicals and Econometrics (Oct '20)In this analysis I'll be evaluating 12 different econometric and technical indicators to see if we can get a feel for BTC's direction over the coming days/weeks/months. This is part of a regular series that I post whenever a significant shift is apparent within a net total evaluation of these metrics. Note - Some of these indicators are not widely known. At the bottom of this analysis I'll post references to educational articles that describe some of the more exotic indicators. ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 1 - Headline Photo (Shown Above): ____________________________________________________________________________ Top left - Golden Ratio Multiplier (info in "resources" section below): The golden ratio multiplier has been one of the strongest indicators for spotting opportune buying/selling opportunities as well as key dynamic support and resistances. During the great 'rona selloff of 2020, we spiked down to the 2x 350SMA multiplier, the exact support that reversed the 2018/2019 selloff and launched us into 2019's bull run (and later ruined by the pandemic). We're just launched off 111 DMA, the moving average that is at the core of this indicator's functionality, after consolidating above for over a month. The fact that the 111DMA held as support and provide a launch point to above is overall, bullish. Top right - Guppy: I use the Guppy as a strong check for bias. Green - I am bullish , gray - neutral, red - bearish. We just flipped green, bullish. Note: check my scripts for this indicator with backtesting Bottom left - Log channel: BTC has spent almost its entire life between the white log channels. Taking this indicator alone, we are currently backtesting the channel support. Bearish. Bottom right - Ichimoku Cloud (1d) + significant EMAs + RSI: The current price is above both the Tenkan and Kijun and a green cloud. This is by-the-books bullish. Price is also above the 55 (yellow), 99 (blue) and 200 (red) EMA's. While the 99, my personal favorite, was challenged there, the price ultimately flipped it as support and used it as a launching point for this recent (albiet small) surge. Bullish. ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 2: ____________________________________________________________________________ Top left - S&P500 Correlation: Unfortunately, this indicator says more than most at this time. Ever since the pandemic kicked off economic uncertainty, BTC's correlation with the S&P500 has felt unshakeable. The good news is that the SPY is bullish now as traders speculate over a new economic deal, but I can't help but feel bummed that crypto is still being dictated by the greater market with every move. Regardless, bullish. Top right - Futures premiums: The last few bull runs have been futures-driven rallies where both the quarterly (blue) and weekly (yellow) contracts have been trading at a premium over spot. Recently we had a period where weekly contracts were trading below, but quarterly was trading above - read as confusion in the market and high uncertainty. Good news - we now have both weeklies and quarterlies trading at a positive premium, which is bullish. I would like to the see the weekly premiums a little higher, but still, I'll take it. Bullish. Bottom left - Puell Mulitple (info in "resources" section): In short, this metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - Bitcoin miners and their revenue. Specifically, BTC issuance to miners. When issuance is low, investors during that period historically have outsized returns. At this time issuance is in a slightly low phase, but not outstandingly abnormal. There is a lot of room to run upwards, but still some room downwards as well. We did however have a recent dip to a Puell of 0.55, which was very close to the ideal buy range, and quite a good buy opportunity in and of itself. Even now as we are around 0.85 Puell, we are quite low and indicates that hodlers (multi-year), should be quite fine to accumulate here while staying weary that better buying opportunities may present itself. For scale, 0.5 Puell and below is a near instant-buy for me. Net, neutral, slightly bullish. Bottom right - weekly cloud, 21 MA, RSI: There's a lot to look at here, let's start with cloud. The weekly cloud is still bullish with the price above both the Tenkan and Kijun and the bullish cloud twist. A cloud enthusiast would have seen the drop to $9.8 as a simple bullish retest of the weekly Tenkan and a good buy opportunity; which sure enough it was. The last thing I want to note with the weekly cloud is that I would like to see the Kijun have a bullish trend of its own, and close the gap between it and the Tenkan. While absolutely bullish overall, with the Kijun where it is, any bearish shifts may have a violent drop, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there - overall the weekly cloud is quite bullish. Next let's take a look at the 21MA on the weekly. Historically speaking, the 21MA has an almost magical effect for spotting good buy opportunities early or even mid-trend. Reading that alone, there is a beautiful confluence of the 21MA with the Tenkan, with the 21MA also indicating the drop to $9,800 as a good buy. Lastly, the weekly RSI is always an interesting one to watch. The 54 RSI value has played a significant role in past bull runs, where every test is bought up and fuels further continuation. While we've only tested it twice now both tests were successful and can only be read as possibly entering another run. I don't consider 2 to be a pattern, but a couple more successful tests would confirm and should make bulls quite happy, a breakdown should make bears happy. In total: Weekly Cloud bullish, 21MA bullish, RSI bullish (with hopes for further confirmation). ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 3: ____________________________________________________________________________ Note: With exception to Stock to Flow, this page mostly consists of long term indicators used to spot extremes where buying/selling is most profitable. There is little change from the last BTC State of Everything Address. Top left - 2y MA Multiplier: We are about 20% of the distance above the 2y MA support. The current price did just proceed a dip below, which historically has sprung a long term (multi-year) bull run. Long term, bullish . Near term, neutral/irrelevant. Top right - Stock to Flow: This crowd favorite needs no introduction, but info is in the "resources" section if needed. We're currently in the early stage of the orange phase of stock to flow, which has historically been a bullish period with lots of chop along a slow grind up. Yep, that feels about right doesn't it? The read here is that anything can happen on daily or even weekly timeframes. Traders of daily to weekly timeframes have little to get from this, longer term holders (months/years) should perceive as bullish. Near/mid term neutral, long term bullish. Bottom left - Pi Cycle (info in "resources" section): Fantastic for sniping tops, we can also glean some info about buy timing. Historically speaking, the Pi Cycle is bullish above the 111 DMA (pink), euphoric above the 2x350 DMA (green), and primed to sell when the 111 DMA crosses above the 2x350 DMA. Additionally, when bullish, buying dips to the 111 DMA support has proved profitable. However, the 111 DMA is also the core dependency of the Golden Ratio Multiplier from Page 1, so in this particular scenario should not yield additional weight when evaluating all the indicators as a whole. Bullish, but omitting from net-sum calculation (below). Bottom right - BTC Network Momentum (info in "resources" section): Our momentum is quite low. In fact, it hasn't been this low since 2015. That said, BTCNM does have clear supports, and we are teetering on one of the supports now. Neutral for now, but a break of that support would be a clear bearish sign. ____________________________________________________________________________ SUMMARY: ____________________________________________________________________________ Golden ratio multiplier: bullish Guppy: bullish Log channel: bearish Daily cloud: bullish S&P500 Correlation: bullish (but not ideal) Futures premiums: slightly bullish Puell multiple: long term bullish, mid term neutral Weekly cloud: bullish Weekly 21MA: bullish Weekly RSI: bullish 2y MA Multiplier: long term bullish, short/mid term neutral Stock to flow: long term bullish , short/mid term neutral BTC network momentum: neutral ____________________________________________________________________________ CONCLUSION: ____________________________________________________________________________ Bullish - it's this kind of alignment of indicators that I like to see when determining bias. Right now the net sum of the indicator results are clearly bullish, and despite my feelings (I was leaning bearish previously), the data is clear. Putting my emotions aside and reading this for what it is, it's time to take the short shorts off and put on the long pants. I hope you guys enjoyed this meta analysis of BTC! I have years of experience trading crypto, but am just now beginning to publish my ideas, secret-sauce scripts and handy tools. If you appreciated this post and would like to see more, a like or a follow would be greatly appreciated 😁. ____________________________________________________________________________ RESOURCES: ____________________________________________________________________________ To stay compliant with TradingView house rules, I am unable to post links to these educational articles directly, but I highly encourage you to google them and seek them out. I have taken steps to ensure these resources are purely educational in nature. Super Guppy TradingView Strategy: unable to link, but check my scripts for source. Includes backtesting, multiples settings, and different risk profiles. Golden Ratio Multiplier: "The Golden Ratio Multiplier" by PositiveCrypto Puell Multiple: "The Puell Multiple Bed" by Unconfiscatable Stock to Flow: "Modeling Bitcoins Value With Scarcity" by 100trillionUSD Pi Cycle: There's a good section on this near the bottom of the Golden Ratio Multiplier article. BTC Network Momentum: "Bitcoin Network Momentum" by Good Audience
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by StanleyBostich
2
Eurodollar, Negative Interest Rates, and the S&P (Post 8ish)Twice since 2000 the eurodollar future as pumped to near 100 and at both times the midpoint consolidation marked a bull trap within the S&P. Our current set of circumstances is unique as a third touch at resistance puts the eurodollar future above 100, which signals negative interest rates in the real world and outside the control of the Federal Reserve. How the Fed will respond to this remains to be seen. How market will respond to this remains to be seen. There are several countries with interest rates ranging from -0.1 to -0.75 and if the Eurodollar goes above 100 we should see a whole lot more. www.investopedia.com The chart below zooms in on the eurodollar and SPX. The eurodollar and SPX both hit a local low at the same time and the Eurodollar shows a textbook BARR bottom. It is clear that the flagpole bewteen consolidation 1 and 2 was timed with the dump in SPX. Consolidation 2 overlaps what I believe to be a bear trap in the eurodollar. Another flag pole should throw SPX price action to the ground. thepatternsite.com Here is a side by side view on the eurodollar and S&P. As I have recently been mentioning elsewhere I am using the Volatility Stop to try and help be refine the timing of my entries and steadying my hands to help me let my winners run when they are in a consolidation pattern and I start to doubt my big picture. The chart has a lot of sound theory, SPX support flipping to resistance, a indicator suggesting trend reversal on SPX, a micro acceding triangle in the Eurodollar chart and a stop loss all in one. If we see the SPX price action reverse and close a candle body above 3166 the trade is over or on hold. If the eurodollar dumps as the acceding triangle fails to to perform the trade is canceled or on hold. Here is another look at an asset that had a BARR bottom and hit full flag pole performance after Consolidation 2. There are a lot of differences between the eurodollar and bitcoin and the main one would be the macro-structure both are in. Key would be bitcoin hitting a lower high on this BARR bottom but I am calling for a higher high on the eurodollar. Clear performance should only be a week or two away. Really close. Of course, I am not a financial advisor, nor am I a certified market technician. Take a look at my linked post, you will see me being right on a lot of theory, but you will also see me getting the timing wrong quite a bit. There was still a lot of money to be made on the swing trades, but I was looking for that big move that I think is coming shortly. I still see this as a subvert currency war against China due to their eurodollar exposure and how the US has been probably using the Dollar Milkshake Theory to influence the dollar shortage so it will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially in the Chinese market.
GShort
by This_Guhy
2
Cash is King, Bull run incoming! M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1 With this increase in cash flow & asset holding, I wouldn't expect a bear cycle anytime soon!
FRED:WM2NSLong
by jfs2152
Waiting for the stark reality of economy to be exposed!Op-ed: The charts show global stocks could retest their March lows later this year www.cnbc.com Key points: From a technical analysis perspective , global stock indexes in March wiped out critical long-term support factors pertaining to the entire multiyear rallies since the conclusion of the global financial crisis bear markets, that have driven many stock indexes to all-time highs. From our technical perspective, although the short-term outlook into June remains for further upside, we do not see most of the major benchmarks challenging the current 2020 cycle highs. Given that markets remain contained below the peaks from the first quarter of 2020 at the end of the second quarter and taking into consideration the above-mentioned damage inflicted to the long-term charts, the threat in the next two quarters is for a roll back down lower into the very wide ranges established by the first-quarter sell-offs. From a macroeconomic perspective , a more negative outlook could be driven by the lifting of lockdowns allowing for the removal of fiscal accommodation by governments, which could expose the stark reality of a post-pandemic global economy, damaged by the measures taken during global lockdowns. Furthermore, there is also the risk of a second wave of coronavirus cases and deaths as lockdowns are eased, potentially seeing lockdown measures reinstated. Finally, the growing resumption of tensions between China the U.S. (as well as other nations), could lead to a renewal of the 2019 trade war. With most commentators agreeing that the economic recovery is likely to be U-shaped at best or even L-shaped at worst, the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery by the global economy seems unlikely, which is likely going to be needed to continue the aggressive V-shaped rebound in stock indexes. In summary then, although the short/intermediate-term outlook remains for renewed upside for the major global stock averages into June, we do not see a resumption of intermediate or longer-term bull trends. Rather, markets could likely be contained within the broader ranges defined by the first-quarter 2020 bear markets, or possibly even into the second half of 2020 to retest the March 2020 bear move lows.
SP:SPXShort
by krisu619
3
"Free stuff" part 1: Just tax the rich!Part 1 of my 2 parts (or more?) article on "free stuff". I will start immediatly by saying that the ultra rich did not become rich by "earning income". They got there by asset appreciation. Jeff Bezos did not "earn" 150 billion in wages. His company valuation went way up. So therefore it is impossible for the government to tax the super rich wealth like this. What would they do? Confiscate their shares and sell them? To what idiot? The way for the government to tax the super rich wealth is to nationalise their companies. This is what is called socialism. Works absolutely great. They can also confiscate land and give it as bribes to their electorate, like Zimbabwe did. It took a few months for Zimbabwe to say "we are starving we beg you to come back". Anyone that expects the government to be competitive (lol), or some bureaucrat to be innovative (double lol) is seriously delusional. Ignorant people can argue all they want: it got tried countless times and always failed in the same way. The debate is settled. The only industries that make sense to nationalise are the natural ressources of a country. Extracting Oil in particular. And most people can agree that this is quite fair. Exploiting the country ressources and of course sharing it with the country is fair. Robbing the hard work of someone isn't. France is the biggest spender in the world. They spend 55.5% of the GDP. GDP is 2400 billion euros in 2019. They got a whooping 87 billion euros from income tax. The upper bracket is 45%. Plus 66-70 billion with taxes on companies. The chart I drew with redistribution. It takes from the rich and raises the bottom 20%. The lower middle class gets scammed because those at the bottom, which are mostly handicapped and very low IQ and so on (they make almost nothing before government spending because they can't work most of the time), get uplifted up at the level of the bottom middle class. What all those numbers do not show: high taxes on companies means all this money goes to the government, not to the workers, and then the government redistribute it. Look. The ENTIRE income tax brought 87 billion. Not just the rich. And the government spends way more. On this page they have a 200 billion project to repay the debt. www.aft.gouv.fr In the entire budget it's "only" 330 billion, but that's not 55% of gdp, I guess all the rest is just regular spending (paying police etc) that is not counted in it? According to the french tax site impotsurlerevenu.org The top 1% pay 25% of income tax, and the next 9% pay 35%. With basically a 50% tax on the top 1%. They get about 21-22 billion euros from the top 1%. Historically raising taxes on the rich has lowered revenue (and raising on every one has increased revolts by a 10000 factor). Won't go into this, don't want to make this too long. Assume the top 1% was taxed at 100% and they're absolute suckers they keep making as much money for others. Woohoo! France got an additional 20 billion. With this they can... do nothing... People at the bottom, which on average have a much lower IQ but it's a coincidence, think the rich have a horn of plenty, they think so little of themselves (maybe they're right about that) that they see the rich as absolute gods that can multiply bread & wine, but so evil that they keep it all for themselves. A fun fact is that when the rich put money into the bank or in stocks, it does create some inflation, it would be wrong to say "money not spent is as if it didn't exist", there will be some inflation (althought very little just look at the BoJ they printed so much cash to create inflation and that cash just slept in safe deposits and created nothing, it only creates inflation if the bank lends it...) Either way, both if the rich keeping their money creates some inflation or nearly none, when the government spends it it creates way more. And we have seen that the rich are not demi-gods that single handidly generate the whole GDP of a country (lol). All this "redistributed" money comes from 80% of the populaition, via various taxes (including value added taxes which clearly reduced purchasing power), and via inflation, via government printing money or monetizing debt which steal wealth from the current generation, and the gov taking debt that steals wealth from the future generation. Taxing the rich won't create heaven on earth. Apart from making voters happy, and maybe feeding those at the bottom 20%, it doesn't do anything. If taxing the rich made every one happy and beautiful and wealthy and equal, wouldn't the Soviet Union have done it? Why does China Gini not decrease after the rich get taxed? Hey and what about the fact that Irish- and African- americans poorest periods were when they were getting a ton of welfare, and best periods economically were when they were getting the least? I looked again at some pictures from the great depression. People in line for free soup. Both whites & blacks. They disliked getting their picture taken. And they hated having to queue for soup. They had dignity back then. Compared to today where the government has grown and grown and people of their own will want "free stuff". Absolutely shameful. Taxing reduces inequality. Yes. It works. It works by uplifting the bottom 20% that cannot survive on their own. Koko the gorilla. Koko the gorilla won't go to college. Before the government "help" did you know that university in the USA was really cheap, and poor kids that went there could take a summer job to pay for it? And you didn't need a university diploma for most jobs? By "helping", the government has destroyed the system. Universities got super expensive. Students get massive debt. Jobs all require diplomas now, for no reason. Spoiled brats shot themselves in the leg. Well done. By "helping", the government has also made house prices go waaaaay up. Absolute bubble. The winners are those that owned a house before. And the population that cheered, now can barely afford a roof over their head, some get evicted. Well done. Why is all this so hard to understand? What's in people head? Koko the gorilla probably shouldn't be allowed to vote! All the Koko the gorillas that think in an emergency we will "just tax the rich" and we will all be fine are going to get a nice surprise and lesson. Lots of big city folks that don't get enough sleep, play a ton of fantasy games, and drink lots of coffee (its an opoid drug btw), completely detached from reality. If no one makes stuff, there is no stuff. "The rich" don't have a magic pot with enough stuff for every one. Inequality went up with industrialization (wageslavery): link.springer.com So... To increase equality, really smart voters want to hurt business and produce job security? Yes, less business and more wageslavery, that's what is required! www.researchgate.net readersupportednews.org Lmao suckers got convinced that they will die without the government and their only hope is the government taxing the horn of plenty rich. I'll end this here or it will be too long. One last chart: www.vox.com Wow! Wealth inequality was lowest in the mercantile capitalism era! During the time of kings not greedy politicians that lie to get votes! WOW! I never saw that coming! Before "secure jobs". Before "tax the rich". What a surprise! Tax was 99% back then right? No? 1%? LIES! It's so obvious to me. But suckers are too dumb to understand this and shoot themselves in the leg. And I might have to move abroad, because they might start a revolution to get more of the bad things that hurt them (lol). So many people are naive. The rich are not demigods. The rich are not santa claus. The government does not have a magic wand to steal wealth from the demigod rich to create an utopia. Chill out and get your lazy bums to work!
by MrRenev
9
ALIBABA (BABA) - Opportunity to SELLHey everyone, here's the analysis on BABA, if you find this idea insightful, leave us a like and comment on stock ideas you look forward to next! Summary: Strong drop from our resistance zone and trend line, current price could push lower to our S1 zone. Action: Sell Limit: 203.00 Stop Loss: 220.00 Take Profit: 188.00 Analysis: Strong resistance zone at R1, along with our trend line where there was a strong reversal in price. Current price could push lower to our S1 zone if it holds well below our trend line and R1 zone. Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading and investing. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Trading BEAN and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All contents featured here are solely for educational purposes and ARE NOT investment or trading advices. Please do your own due diligence and trade at your own risk.
NYSE:BABAShort
by TradingBean
Gold SMART MONEYLast week (wk of 3/9) gold was BEARISH! This week we see similar changes, once again the Interbank/Commercial adds to their long positions while once again decreasing shorts. While Institutions once again decreased both long and short positions. Lastly open interest dropped 691.985k to 633.47k. Also commercials have been heavily selling Gold since June 17, 2020. Thus as they continue to decrease their short positions now and increasing their long positions. Thus, we shall see the institutions liquidate their longs and begin stacking up on short positions. Lastly, bullish momentum is dying on the monthly and the market is phasing into a bear move. However, at the moment volatility is still low and low volatility is representative of a confident market. Thus, as volatility increases provoking fear we will then see bearish momentum takeover.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheEconomyCreator
1
Time to Accumulate Gold and Silver Miners on Metals Pullback It is always important to keep one’s mind open and to consider all possibilities. At this point I am expecting a pullback correction in Gold, between $1416 and $1434. If this pullback comes, this will be an opportunity to accumulate undervalued junior miners who will play “catch-up” to the large cap miners. Additionally, with the gold-silver ratio finally breaking lower, silver looks poised to outperform on this next leg up. I am not actively shorting the metals, merely patiently waiting for this opportunity to accumulate even more shares in my list of miners. However, given the current state of affairs around the world, it is entirely possible this pullback never comes and that we move higher from here. I am hedged against that possibility by being presently invested and continuously adding to my investments in junior & small cap miners. In my opinion, if this scenario plays out where gold does not correct first, it will ultimately not be ideal for gold long-term and will likely result in a painful crash in the metals.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
BITCOIN TO 30KTechnical analysis: a symmetric triangle going to break to 20k then 13k again and then 30k . if you ask when this is gonna happend i"d tell that i dont know when exactly but its gonna happend in the next years maybe. Fundamental analysis : trade war is getting too strong as china sells the u.s bonds and also the devaluation of the yuan. china, russia, U.E is buying gold as a currency for reserve while the fed is cutting the interest rates for the first time in 11 years . Germany had slow his economic growth and is entering on a "technical recession" . China had his lowest economic growth in the last 30 years . Italia is on a recession, argentina had his worst day on history last monday 12/8 . The FMI redefine the world economic growth with a cut to 3.5% , the same level as 2009. Its your decition to be in the side of the looser or in the side of winners...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by tomiwolf
1
A wild CHFJPY long swing trade appearedForget about lagging indicators. That is retail mindset. Join us. Price action with Wyckoff is all you need in this jungle. Hi there people! A new week begins, a new plan to own the market comes. Let's take a look in a long oportunity on the 4hr, that will develop most likely in the next days. This is a swing trade, so execute with patience, as always. A price level that does not want to give up has appeared. Watch carefully on 15 mins to decide if opening a position is worth enough. Wait for a confirmation that the level holds. Also, significant levels have been marked, according to what the price tells us. Fib retracement rules, right? They are temptative, and will need modification as the market unfolds! Join us on numanti.es and @Numanti_IP, for financial news, learning oportunities and much more! "The price movements represent everything everyone knows, hopes, believes and anticipates", Richard H. Dow
Long
by Numanti-Investment-Partners
1
A wild USDCHF short swing trade appeared. Forget about lagging indicators. That is retail mindset. Join us. Price action with Wyckoff is all you need in this jungle. Hi there people! We are Numanti Invesment Partners and welcome to our very first analysis on Tradingiew. Today we come with a short oportunity on the swissy 4hr, that will develop most likely in the next days. This is a swing trade, on a overall bullish market, so watch out! A price level that does not want to give up has appeared. Watch carefully on market opening. Significant levels have been marked, according to what the price tells us. Watch particularly the fib retracement levels at 1,0155 and 1,00364. J oin us on numanti.es and @Numanti_IP, for financial news, learning oportunities and much more! "There are three kind of lies: Plain lies, damned lies and statistics", Stock Markets Technique Number 2, Richard D. Wyckoff
Short
by Numanti-Investment-Partners
1
S&P 500 entering an ORDER BLOCK | TAPE READINGThe price is edging up. If you look closely, you will see an Elliot 5 Wave impulse. If you know about fractals, you should have that in your trading arsenal because the Elliot Wave principle is a natural, sensational and accurate tool in 'forecasting' price action. The waves move in harmony according to the Fibonacci patterns and spirals. The Fibonacci is the actual backbone of the Elliot wave principle (although i haven't included it in this price level - even though I have, by virtue of Elliot). The US economy is projected to be moving down. With the recent trade wars, French (fuel) tax riots, weakening global demand, drop in oil, and massive debt, the US should start a process of deleveraging soon. The SPX is reflective of the global economy. The markets have been rising this year, the biggest performers in the upcoming quarters should be emerging economies by virtue of the law of diminishing returns. The global landscape is changing right before our eyes as China takes the stage as the the leading super power. Overall, Trump's Trade War was a misdirected battle that's turning out to be a blessing for all emerging economies because it's happening on the backdrop of President Xi's aggressive, futuristic and rather ambitious One Belt One Road Initiative. The global landscape is going to be shaped by the actions of changing global movement and emerging drivers in the global macro economy.
SP:SPXEducation
by Money_Lab