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Global Equities In Big Trouble? / Technical Chart / SP500A geopolitical environment that is stalling growth, a divided American people & government, and a looming showdown between the Federal Reserve and the Street... Are the global markets truly on a precipice? Let's get into this breakdown. The technical pattern that is emerging is quite clearly a head and shoulders. If we break the neckline we are looking at a decline setting the market back to the beginning of 2017. Is this all doom and gloom? Will it happen quickly and violently? No it most likely won't. The fundamentals underpinning this current market are still there, albeit on shakier ground. US GDP growth is projected to start slowing down (it wasn't sustainable for long to begin with), and passing more corporate tax cuts is not the gimme it once was for the current administration. What does this all add up to? A long overdue winding down of a record bull market. This isn't 2008 all over again necessarily, and I don't think you will see (yet) a panicked rush for the exits. Right now, it is important to consider your trading strategy and mindset for 2019. What am I looking for? 1) Opportunities to take advantage of risk-off sentiment (follow the money out of risk-on instruments and into safe havens) 2) Opportunities to buy 'value' stocks at cheaper prices as especially tech keeps shedding its gains 3) Slowly start going to cash. Being in cash is one of the best trading positions to be in. It means you're not out of ammo and shooting blanks when the big moves start happening. Good luck in these upcoming weeks and months. We'll see what the future holds. Never forget - your #1 responsibility as a trader is to preserve your capital.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ImreSG
1
Technicals suggesting sell off to continue?Weekly TF technicals have shown a breach of short/intermediate term MAs and psychologically important support levels. Divergence and a crossover on the MACD support the case for more downside. My immediate thought is where will price find support? 2580 seems like the next significant level as the market retests the lows established earlier this year in anticipation of mid-term elections. If market breaks those levels, the 200-week MA would be my next area of interest.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LockNLos
Updated Global Macro Dashboard Bonds and Notes BullishNew week, updated the dashboard. Swapped out Commodities and Emerging Markets for Dow Futures and Eurodollar futures. Bonds and Notes looking bullish here, the biggest surprise to everything and everyone would be a bond price rally (rates dropping). Everyone is expecting rate hikes, like nearly 100% Will generate a trade idea this week for bonds or notes. Once this trade (if) takes off, Eurodollar is how I am looking to express it.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by ChrisD_Macro
1
Buying Gold After Breakout! Hello Traders, I am looking to buy Gold at a breakout of the falling trendline for a potential trend reversion. Once it breaks 1307.93 high, I am looking to execute a long position. The stop will be below the low of $1280 and the target at around 1368$ or even higher. Due to the fundamental and global risks (U.S.-China, Italy etc), we are currently facing I am pretty much sure that Gold will act as a safe heaven. So the fundamental front looks promising for a potential gold rally. I will risk around 1.5% of my capital on this one. Lets see. Hope this helps. Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view present is not a trading recommendation just personal view.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by TradeFxTrends
Macroeconomic Trends & Value Investing StrategyI wanted to touch on an important topic that often gets overlooked or not discussed in the Cryptoasset space. This discussion has to do with global macroeconomic trends and how Cryptoassets fit into the larger overall picture. If you aim to be a disciplined and successful value investor, you have to take global macro trends into account as they absolutely play a vital role in the Crypto markets. Critical Issues - Since the last market downturn, the divide bt/wn US household wealth versus GDP has grown significantly. Almost all asset classes - stocks, bonds, property, crypto - have benefitted from an extremely loose monetary policy (including SEVEN YEARS of zero percent interest rates in the US and negative interest rates abroad) over the past number of years. Low-interest rates mean increasing asset values and distortion is introduced into the markets. In these times, asset valuations become detached from their true intrinsic value as investors continue to allocate money into riskier assets in order to increase return and yields. As interest rates are now on the rise and inflation has returned as a concern, asset prices are vulnerable to a correction. Margin/Credit Debt - Margin & Credit debt reached a record high level in January 2018. Leverage leads to increases in volatility. The magnification that leverage brings can cause extreme market swings when things begin to unwind. Volatility - Last year, the S&P 500 moved 2% or more in a day zero times. There have been six 2% plus moves in 2018 in the first quarter of 2018. High valuations and high leverage across the board have introduced volatility back into markets in 2018. Global Trends - Worldwide government stimulus plans, increasing debt levels, excessive spending and monetary policies, growing support of protectionist measures (aka opposition to free trade agreements) should be cause for concern for any investor. Japan has exploded gov. debt and market manipulation while their economy has stagnant income and slow GDP growth. China has increased debt levels and a surge in speculative investments. Europe has an overburdened social welfare state and few countries have mass amounts of debt. The US major issue is its underfunded public and private pension fund obligations. The key takeaway is that it is important to be mindful of global macroeconomic trends as any number of discussed issues could lead to major market disruptions. Make sure you have a financial strategy to protect yourself and loved ones. It is important to only invest what you can afford to lose and do not bring on any debt obligations that could put you in a difficult position if (and when) economic conditions change. The key to value investing is Capital Preservation. Develop a strategy that allows you to be in a position to be offensive when market distortion is low and asset valuations are more in line with their true intrinsic value - and hopefully a whole lot cheaper!
AMEX:SPY
by BitInfo12
enjoy the rideIn short our full net short position in gold,silver and mining stocks is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward at the time of writing this article/idea Are you ready for the exciting ride which is about to happen? If not then be prepare because at the end of this ride it will present us the ultimate long opportunity but before that happens we will have many opportunity to gain some short term profits and guess what we are exactly doing that with our current net short position but it looks like it's just a start due to very low volume in gold and mining stocks last several days were so boring but yesterday and today's session took it to the extreme and that's what we were expecting that's why we didn't post our article from 2 days because literally nothing has happened,we already emphasize several times that low volume in gold often precedes big decline in precious metals and that's what we are seeing right now and the implication of yesterday's extremely low volume giving a very serious bearish sign In a below chart you could clearly see that gold stocks break to new 2018 low,from daily perspective it might be not seem important but it is as it was the lowest daily close since late nov 2016 In our previous article/idea we mentioned that gold miners could still move higher but the likelihood of under performing during upswing is somewhat greater,hence the HUI index managed to move up to 174 and then decline again,thing to note is during the upswing HUI index unable to close above 2017 low,this point is validating our bearish view even more but there are other things too which is confirming our bias even more one of it is volume,check the charts below during yesterday downswing volume has been increased significantly and that's a clear sign of upcoming bearish move,In the next several days we could see slide in silver prices let's get right to silver,similar pattern in white metal is ongoing for now,triangle apex showing generating more sell signal for white metal so we could seen a decline very shortly in silver prices,so now let's figure out how much silver can slide in near term? Based on our analysis silver is likely to slide to 15.200-15.700 before this month ends,that could be a very volatile movement There are some more valid reasons which are giving us this target area and that's the comparison of previous decline,if the same pattern will be continue we can expect the movement of decline to be same to the size of decline by which the whole pattern has been started GOLD Target-In the case of gold we can't figure out the self similar pattern,so we think that current declining in gold will be similar to the previous short term-declines,based on the apex reversal technique gold is likely to bottom next week below 1280,this is our short term target area,however we have other targets too not based on apex reversal or rising support line bused on the nov 2017 low,based on that gold is likely to go down to 1240-1250 target zone,both target areas are valid even more as they are supported by fib retracement levels and on the rally of entire nov2016-jan2018 rally overall multiple signals are pointing out to much lower prices in gold,silver and mining stocks as we are seeing that movement has been started to build but it's just a beginning big decline is just around the corner,it seems very likely that next 5-8 trading days will be highly volatile and note our words-we will see new 2018 lows shortly our positions-gold entry-1230 ,stop loss-1386 1st t.p-1280 our position-silver entry-16.700 stop loss-17.440 T.p-14.630 IF the target areas were reached next week as desribed we can close all the existing position or even reverse our position if market situation will allow us, we will update you anyways many regards-neeraj pandey
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
4
patience pays off[ ]At the time of writing this article/idea our full short position is now justified in both of the precious metals gold and silver from the risk and reward measurement Not too long ago on friday we closed our net short position in both metals in our group,since then we have seen huge rally in gold and silver as expected before,we already mentioned our short term target area in yesterday post and it was expected to reach at the end of week but yesterday rally was so significant that both metals hit there target areas,before going into chart we want to emphasize you that don't try to look charts as a trading system,it's rather a tool which helps you to find good entry,stop loss and take profits that's it,there are many long term fundamental factors which helps us to add long or short position in our portfolio,ok now let's dive into charts In yesterday post we mentioned that gold could move 1340 zone before it plunges again why 1340? that's where the rising resistance line is,we argued that once it hits that zone that wlll be a strong bears signal and we will be ready to net short our position but before it plunges more in a dramatic way you can see a small upswing again in both of the metals,most important to note is yes gold market is giving strong bearish signals but more strong confirmation is coming out from other precious metals sector silver sector-until now we didn't mentioned silver sector in our idea but from now you will see silver,mining stocks as well as usd index analogy in our articles,on dec 15,2017 we have seen a similar daily rally that we saw yesterday,shortly after the rally silver plunges,bearish implication were huge,so are we going to see the same decline in silver this time? we already did but lot more to come!! not only because we are comparing this present scenario with past but because silver outperformed gold multiple times before declining,we already mentioned in our articles(not here sorry) that once silver will reach to our target area our bearish outlook will be more confirmed ok let's move into us dollar index,keep in mind thay usd index is above its very important support level so long term outlook is very bullish but before the end of week we can expect some volatilty as mario draghi speech and emloyment numbers are about to come so the question is will gold and silver will rally up again,they can but less probable as they have reached our areas of interest so outlook is very bearish now,but anyways we will update with our post if any major changes will happen in metal sector, gold-1st target-1230 stop loss-1379,entry price-1325 silver-1st target-14.730 stop loss- 17.300 entry- 16.500 if you are interested in intraday signals p.m me we will provide you it free stay tuned
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
6
macro view unclearPast week usd index broke three major resistance and when everything seems to be great(as we are in short position in our group) then boom we saw a massive reversal of usd index,and due to that silver and gold make there strong bullish move,due to involvement of big volume in this scenario we saw such a strong upward move in both of the precious metals, macro and longer term picture-In short term there is quite a uncertainty in both of the precious metals but if gold makes a bearish move again with a volatile manner then it will find support for instance from 1300 its psychologically important level then it can rally up again and can retrace to our current or even 1350 level,again its a possibility as right now our bias is neutral,second possibility which have a high chance that it can turn out to be true in a matter of weeks you can see prices of gold climbs up to 1350 level based on triangle apex reversal,overall short terms picture seems quite confusing but over a longer term we can see many factors contributing towards a massive decline in gold prices,but right now we want to see more clear signs or confirmation before we open any position in our portfolio,we will open long/short position once everything will be clear, Things to consider- -gold almost touched 1300 level and reversed back -reversal accompanied by big volume and cyclical turning point -the USD Index broke below the previous February low -our longer term view is bearish - we took all the profits from the table instead of just limiting the exposure. -no open short/long position in gold or silver
FX:XAUUSD
by NeerajPandey
Mid Term Correction Idea for SG marketSGX:SGP1! Mid Term trade idea for SGX:SGP1 Due to the weakening dollar (DXY) testing a very strong support level, and Singapore market being negatively correlated with the dollar... If the USD bounces above its key long term support, it would then mean that Singapore market would be in a period of intermediate correction. Alternatively, if the USD breaks below it's key long term support, we would see the big boys (banks, HFs, AMs) move their money towards the cheaper assets across the EM countries. Holding USD denominated assets in the alternative scenario will erode the value of their portfolios. Preferred Scenario - USD recovers and bounces above support, EM markets enter temporary correction Short when SGX:SGP1 closes below 399.65. Play the drop towards 378.00 for corrective wave A. RSI also currently finding support and testing neutral level at 50%
SGX:SGP1!Short
by talenttrader
Potential for further Yen Strength. Hello Traders, At the end of the month I like to do some monthly candlestick analysis and look at how the month closed and to get a better feel for the longer term perspective. Technically the yen looks poised for further gains since closing below the previous month's lows. I use depending on the asset class the 10 EMA or 20 EMA on the Monthly Charts to determine what type of trend a market is in. In this case, we have a monthly close for March exactly on the 20 EMA. So anything can happen here. If bulls take control and manage to close above March's highs then it is probable that we test the 124 handle. On the other hand, if April closes below the 20 EMA and March's lows then it is very likely that November USD/JPY bulls will begin to liquidate their long positions and the cross pair can head to test the 100 - 105 handles. Monthly RSI has been on a downtrend since topping out in December of 2014. So strength still remains biased to USD/JPY bears. Feel free to share ideas and open discussion in the comment section! Manage your risk, trade smart and with a plan. =)
by Daniel.B
Oil below Daily 200ma - Testing uptrendHello Traders, Oil is at a true crossroads, testing whether the bull thesis shall be ruled correct. We have had a daily close below the 200ma and as P.T.J says,“One principle for sure would be: get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average.” With that being said, oil has tested the uptrend multiple times and we are seeing some weakness across commodity markets as a whole. We are awaiting longer term short positions to trigger when all our filters are met, oil being one of them. If I was looking to enter bullish then oil would have to close above YTD resistance at $55. That seems an unlikely scenario, but if oil can manage a close above there even though the fundamental narrative does not align then that is a clear display of momentum being skewed to the upside and we are long for a short period. For any bullish positioning on a break higher the immediate resistance level to monitor would be $60. If we break lower and out of the triangle then I would be more inclined to short with some key support areas where I will shave some of the position off. Key support areas: $37-$39, $26, anything after $26 then I just hold on to the trend until it stops and reverses thus trailing me out of a position. Please see the linked "related ideas" for some more info or proxy to the oil trade which has already begun. I also tend to update thoughts and technical analysis more often on my twitter page. Feel free to follow me: twitter.com Weekly Bar Chart: Wedge Continuation?
NYMEX:CL1!
by Daniel.B
Long Russian Stock MarketDeep in my heart I am a contrarian. Whether its investing or anything else, usually I like to take the opposite side of the consensus. For this reason, I have been attracted to the Russian stock market for a couple of years. I'm a big reader of Jim Rogers, and I listen to any new YouTube video he appears, and he initially got me started in Russia in 2015. With Russia hated by so many in the US, its easy to miss the great investing opportunities in Russia. For starters, their market PE ratio is only 5.67, compared to the US 27. Secondly, Russia has a ton of agricultural land that is poised for growth and innovation. I am trying to find a way to play Russian Agriculture specifically, but as of right now, I haven't found a reliable answer. If one of y'all has any ideas, please let me know! Nevertheless, looking at the weekly charts, RSX has been beaten up since 2011.However, RSX did just break its 200 MA in a bullish manner, so I took the long side at 20.78 with a stop loss at 19.31, I am currently risking 0.50% of my capital on this trade. I have moved up my stop a little bit as the share price rises. Regardless of what happens to Russia, I am very comfortable with this trade and expect it to deliver asymmetric results. If not, I lose less than 1% of my capital. All the best, RC
RLong
by BrandonBeylo
Out of neutral spread, looking for directional again. Hello Traders, I've exited my neutral options spread on $TLT today for decent gains as price retreated back to the center of it. I am now looking for the potential to add back into a directional position on $IEF (better cost basis then $TLH or $TLT) through common shares if we get a bounce at the 23.6% fibonacci level. Stop will be announced in the updates section if I decide to add back into a bullish position. Anyhow, good luck to any in bond positions. Trade smart, and with a plan. Cheers. =)
ILong
by Daniel.B
The beginning of a new uptrend? Hello Traders, The previous week offered a decent intra-week opportunity for me to short oil for a 2 day hold on the short (covered on Friday at daily 200 MA). Now on to longer time-frame opportunities with oil and oil related assets. Overlaid on the chart is an area chart of WTI Crude Oil (ticker: /CL). With the potential for further weakness in the black gold we can see the Canadian Dollar trade lower thus pushing USD/CAD above 1.3600 opening the way for the currency pair to trade back up to 1.400 - 1.4500 continuing the trend higher. Keep an eye on crude breaking/bouncing on the ascending trend-line and daily 200 MA. The trade: No position until we get Daily close above 1.3600. Upon a break I'm committing 1% risk to the position. Stop placement will be determined upon a break above 1.3600. Moving Averages: We remain bullish on the bullish 10EMA/50MA crossover. Trading well above Weekly 200 MA. "A man does note have to marry one side of the market till death do them part." - Edwin Lefèvre Monthly Bar Chart: Daily Bar Chart:
by Daniel.B
Another Volume Trade *Keystone*Suncor Energy Inc. broke out of the large accumulation base it formed between $24 - $31 this previous November. Now price has retraced and become bid right at pivot breakout support at $31. Moving Averages % Off 50 Moving Average: +1.5% % Off 200 Moving Average: +11.9% Support / Resistance Supp: $31 ; 50% pivot Res: $33.79 ; 61.8% pivot Volume +210% Above 50 Day Average I expect prices to rise up to test the resistance levels outlined above. A break above would open the door for the $38 pivot resistance. A break below $31 would take it down to multiple levels of support being the 100 and 200 moving averages. Cheers =) www.bloomberg.com
NYSE:SULong
by Daniel.B