Sonata Software Ltd. (NSE: SONATSOFTW)The daily chart of Sonata Software shows a notable consolidation phase after a strong uptrend earlier this year, which peaked around ₹837. The stock has been trading within a descending triangle pattern, a sign of ongoing consolidation with potential for a breakout in either direction. Here’s a closer look at key levels and technical indicators:
1.Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The stock has retraced to key Fibonacci levels, finding temporary support near the 0.236 level around ₹563 and facing resistance near the 0.382 level around ₹615. These levels are crucial as the stock approaches a breakout or breakdown point.
2.Trendline Analysis:
Two converging trendlines form a descending triangle, indicating potential price compression. A breakout above the upper trendline or a breakdown below the lower trendline could signal the next trend direction. Traders should watch for a breakout above ₹615-₹620 or a breakdown below ₹563.
3.Volume and Momentum:
Volume has been gradually decreasing during this consolidation, which typically precedes a breakout. If there’s a spike in volume with a breakout, it could confirm the direction.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is around 47, showing neutral momentum but with room for movement in either direction. A rise above 50 could indicate bullish momentum.
3.Key Support and Resistance:
Support: Major support is around ₹563 (0.236 Fibonacci level) and ₹479 (100% retracement).
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at ₹615, with stronger resistance around ₹658 (0.5 Fibonacci level) and ₹700.
Outlook:
Given the current pattern, Sonata Software is approaching a decisive moment. A breakout above ₹615-₹620 with strong volume could push the stock towards ₹658 and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below ₹563 might lead to further downside.
Note: Keep an eye on broader market conditions as well, as they can influence breakout strength and follow-through.
Globalmarket
Nikkei - Yen Carry Trade - Real or Cheap Politics ???2nd Week of August felt like we are in midst of Peak Autumn Season - Wherever we turn - Every Tree is turned Fully Red. The Entire World market was brought down to its Knees, given the "EXCUSE" of Japan's Yen Carry Trade
assets.bwbx.io
Yen carry trade is estimated to be around $20 trillion, according to Deutsche Bank, which is 505% of Japan’s GDP. Other estimates, based on foreign lending data, suggest it is about $1 trillion, while Japanese investors’ net international investment has grown to $3.4 trillion.
All these stories are fine - but it was presented to the world by the Cheap Media houses. Multiple news were mixed up (Yen Carry Trade + US Recession + Iran War Escalation). It was being reported that the entire world economy will dive into Recession, Indian Economy would face a Major Correction with some "Brilliant Minds" predicted that Nifty would crash to 11,000 in next 2 years ? Really ??? Even common-sense says these are Non-Sense
Here is a Detailed R&D with Step-by-Step explanations unveiling the Evil intentions of Big Players, Media Houses who wanted to take quick advantage of the News to bring the prices down in a Flash
Comparison of Nikkei's Weekly Chart vs Daily Chart
1. Nikkei had a clean Cup and Handle Breakout around 33,820 levels in Jan 2024 following which the price blasted nearly 22% in 2 months
2. The Price then faced Multi-year Parallel Channel Resistance on Mar 18th week and started falling and bounced again taking support of Fib 0.5 only - Typically when Fib levels are NOT combined along with previous Support and Resistance - they are susceptible to be broken down again if there is a News based fall
3. By Jul 8, Nikkei tested the price levels of Mar 18 and fell - initiating a Double Top pattern with neckline set at 36,670 and the price was falling Non-stop from July 8 already....
4. Now comes the News from BOJ on Wednesday Jul 31 that the rates are increased by 0.25%. As I always say, ANY NEWS has the Power to Break one or more Supports (or) Resistances. In this case, the Negative publicity by Big Media caused a -5% fall on Aug 1st (Thu) resulting in Breakdown of Double Top Neckline
Key Point to remember is that the Fall was Pre-destined in Mar 18 and then on July 8 technically. The Negative News "JUST" Added "Fuel-to-the-Fire" setting ablaze the entire world market in a flash
If there was NO News - still the Breakdown could have happened and if it happened, then the price would slowly come down to the Cup and Handle Breakout zone of 33,820. But the Overhype given my Media + US Recession (another Fictitious Horror Story) + Iran War escalation fears caused the price to Breakdown the 33,820 support level
As per Double Top pattern, the price would reach the same place from where it Started the "M" pattern and voila - it came exactly to the same level of 30,404 on Aug 5th reaching a Intra-day low of -12.65%.
Despite breaking 3 Support levels on Monday, the price took the next Support and bounced back "Same Day" above 2 of the Supports
Remember - Neither BOJ Governor nor Japanese PM/FM did anything to Stop / Reverse the price action on Monday. The calming news from BOJ Deputy Governor that there will be NO further rate hikes came out on Wednesday. But by that time, the price regained above all 3 supports which was broken (reaching above the Cup and Handle BO ZONE)
For those who don't believe Technicals didn't save the game - tell me your Story. What caused the reversal from 30,400 zone ? Entire world is driven by Technicals and NEWS can ONLY cause a temporary direction change
By Monday - Japanese economy had already touched -30% down in 30 days since Jul 8. Its impossible for a country's economy to crash so fast and still fall below. it would be a Catastrophe and even the Big Players who wanted quick gains know this, but they just wanted to Play a "Cheap Game" capitalizing on the Panic sentiments of Innocent Retailers
Understand the True working of Market - Stay Confident - Build your Wealth.
Disclaimer:
3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Behaviour Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading...
We are NOT SEBI Registered and Our focus is NOT providing Buy/Sell Recommendations/calls. Primary Objective is to provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes.
We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide irrespective of its Side"
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-Team Stocks-n-Trends
Massive US Growth Will Decouple Many Global MarketsPlease watch this video to learn my viewpoint on where real opportunities exist for traders.
For many months, I've suggested that the US markets could double or triple over the next 5 to 7+ years. Some people laugh at my expectations, but others seem to "get it."
In this video, I try to explain why my expectations are valid and why I believe the "crash-dummies" will continue to trap traders into believing each new high reached is a fantastic selling opportunity.
Please watch this video and listen to what I'm trying to share. I don't see the markets as a risk related to a massive financial or global crisis (although it could happen).
I see the markets as shifting/changing related to a post-COVID coupling/decoupling event - very similar to what happened, briefly, in the 1990s.
A decoupling event would shift global economics to a point where global assets move away from determined risk factors and towards safety/security. That means the US stock market, as long as the US Dollar & US economy stays relatively strong, would be the most logical in-demand asset for the next 2~5+ years.
It is straightforward when you consider what is happening.
I hope this helps you understand where opportunities exist and how important it is to rethink what is unfolding right now.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
USDJPY buyUS dollar vs Japanese Yen as we can in our chart the is pair is moving in a channel and we are seeing a potential buy side move keeping in view this situation we uphold that the pair can reach to the 162.450 level and then may be rejected from this level because of its historical significance and also the level is formed over weekly time frame and market has been rejected historically two times from this significant level if market is not rejected from this resistance level and breaks this level then it could reach Monthly Resistance level so keep watching the market
Macro Monday 51 ~ The Philippines - The Trading Hub of AsiaMacro Monday 51
The Philippines – The Trading Hub of Asia
The Philippine economy is currently the fastest-growing economy in South East Asia with solid promising growth projections for the next several years. The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report on East Asia and the Pacific showed that the Philippines and Cambodia will be the second highest growing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, next to Palau which is projected to grow by 12.4%.
10 Reasons to consider the Philippines for significant investment returns:
1. The GDP growth rate in the Philippines was 7.6% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.2% for 2024, as reported in their latest World Economic Outlook. This forecast is within the government’s revised 6-7% growth target. This puts the Philippines up there with India, the Ivory Coast and Ireland in terms of their GDP growth rate, all of which are some of the fastest growing economies in the world.
2. The population of the Philippines is 119 million with 28% (33 million people) of the population between the ages of 10-24, giving the country a sustained future labour market edge. The current labour market holds its own with 55% of the population between the ages of 20 – 64 (64 million people). Similar to India, the labour force is young, capable and likely to be sustained.
3. The Philippines are semiconductor specialists. The largest export of the Philippines is semiconductors. Semiconductors make up a significant portion of the Philippines’ exports, accounting for approximately 31.9% of the total electronic products exports. Electronic product exports in turn represent nearly 63% of the country’s total exports.
4. Additional to the above electronic products, the Philippines are also major exporters of manufacturing machinery and equipment, making them similar to South Korea in this respect (covered a few weeks ago). Broadly Manufactured Goods contributed the largest to the country’s total exports in January 2024 amounting to $4.83 bln or a share of 81.4 %. The Philippines are major machine and tool manufacturers (think Caterpillar Inc), however electronic products and semi-conductors are their forte making up the majority of their exports.
5. The second largest export of the Philippines is coconut oil, which has shown a significant annual increase in export value. It is one of the top commodity groups after electronic products in terms of export earnings.
6. The Philippines have a broad customer base in terms of exports. Their largest trading partner was the U.S. with an export value amounting to $902.3 million or a share of 15.2% to the country’s total exports in January 2024. The remaining top five major export trading partners for this month with their export values and percent shares to the total exports were;
a. Japan - $869 million (14.6%);
b. Hong Kong - $761 million (12.8%);
c. People’s Republic of China - $625 million (10.5%)
d. Republic of Korea - $356 million (6.0%).
7. The Philippines has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty over the past three decades. According the World Bank the poverty rate has fallen by almost 80% between 1985 to 2024 and this is expected to continue. According to the World Bank the current poverty rate is 10.7% however, the official poverty rate methodology in the Philippines is different and indicates that 18.1% of people live below the national poverty line. Of the employed population, 2.2% earn less than $1.90 per day on purchasing power parity (PPP) as of 2022. Regardless based on the Philippines methodology a target of <9% in expected to be hit by 2028 - set by the leading President Ferdinand R. Marcos.
8. Major Foreign Investment Incentivisation. The Philippines adopts an open economy that allows 100% foreign ownership in most business sectors. Many government corporations are getting privatized and the major industries such as telecommunications, energy, banking, and shipping have been deregulated. This gives foreign investors more freedom to set up operations in the country. In 2023, the Philippines saw a 6.6% decrease in FDI net inflow, totalling $8.86 billion, which was slightly higher than the targets set. For 2024, there has been a reported increase in FDI net inflows, with a 23.1% rise in March compared to the same month in 2023. The net inflow for March 2024 was $686 million.
9. Strategic Location. For investors aiming to tap into the ASEAN Free Trade area’s vast market of over 600 million consumers, or to engage with the key economies of East Asia, including China, Japan, and Korea, the Philippines offers an ideal strategic position. Additionally, the nation’s prime location at the nexus of numerous global maritime and air routes makes it an excellent hub for integrating into the worldwide supply chains of various enterprises. Think of it as the versatile and dynamic Suez Canal of Asian trade with reduced regulation.
10. Finally, there are a number of additional other factors make the Philippines ripe for investment and growth;
A. The Philippines boasts a high literacy rate of 94.6%, ranking third globally, with English widely used in education, media, business, and daily life, following Filipino (Tagalog) as the national language. This is similar to Ireland in Europe, which is also the only native English speaking country remaining in the EU since UK’s exit - Brexit. This gives these countries a trading edge.
B. The country’s growing economy is complemented by low business start-up costs, with labor and operational expenses significantly lower than in Western countries, leading to substantial cost savings for foreign companies establishing back offices and development centers.
C. One of the world’s largest archipelagos, the Philippines is rich in natural resources, ranking among the top gold and copper producers, with diverse marine and land species unique to its thousands of islands, alongside stunning tourist destinations.
Bonus Note on President Rodrigo Duterte:
It would be remiss of me to not mention the previous President Rodrigo Duterte who took a very harsh approach to resolving drug related crime in the Philippines. According to the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency, during 216,138 anti-illegal drugs operations conducted between July 2016 and September 2021, 311,686 people were arrested and 6,201 were killed by the police Whilst controversial, this low tolerant approach resolved and remedied a major drug and crime issue that Philippines was burdened with. This has made the country as a whole more appealing for nationals and tourists.
Duterte also increased infrastructure spending to an average of 5 percent of the country’s overall GDP – this is twice the budget in the administrations that came before him.
As you can tell from all of the above, the Philippines is staged to enter into a monumental period of growth. The Philippine Stock Exchange also suggests that the stage is set, lets have a look.
The Philippine Stock Exchange - PSE:PSEI
The PSE Composite Index (PSEi) is composed of the 30 largest and most active common stocks listed at the PSE.
The Top 5 Companies in the PSE are as follows;
1. SM Investments Corporation: A conglomerate with operations in retail, property, and financial services. It is one of the largest companies in the Philippines by market capitalization. Market Cap of $17 bln.
2. SM Prime Holdings (SMPH): One of Southeast Asia’s largest integrated property developers, offering lifestyle cities with malls, residences, offices, hotels, and convention centers. Market Cap of $13 bln.
3. BDO Unibank: The largest bank in the Philippines by assets, loans, and deposits. It offers a full range of banking services and products to the retail and corporate markets. As of June 2024, BDO Unibank has a market cap of $12.11 billion.
4. Golden MV Holdings: A company that develops memorial parks and columbarium facilities in the Philippines. It also engages in real estate through its subsidiary Bria Homes, Inc. Market Cap of $12 bln.
5. International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI): A leading operator of container ports and terminals in the global trade and shipping industry. Market Cap of $11.7 bln.
We might look at a couple of these company charts later in this article and possibly more in coming days.
The PSEi Index chart I am about to share reminds me of the Brazil Emerging Market ETF Index AMEX:EWZ chart which we previously shared weeks ago. It also looks a little like the AMEX:URA chart and or U.S. Small Cap 3000.
All these charts are forming long term pennants and breaking to the upside. We are still pending a decisive move on the PSEi below.
▫️ You can observe a compressing pennant with a breakout very likely approaching. Given the positive strides being made in the Philippines I am leaning towards a bullish break out in the above, however this will likely be a measure and slow move.
▫️ If this chart moves in the right direction and gets above its 21 day moving average we can presume the market is moving in the right direction in the Philippines and thus seek out some companies to invest in, knowing that the wind is at our back.
▫️ Investing in the above would obviously leave you exposed to a currency risk in the Philippine Peso. So you need to keep an eye on that currency pair.
▫️ The above chart is not a prediction, however it does have a double bottom look about it and with that in mind, there is a back end potential for an up to 12% currency gain in a longer term trade for U.S. investors. It’s a very interesting background set up.
▫️ This means if you invest in Filipino stocks or companies, there is potential here that you might get additional %’s from the back end currency play.
▫️ Equally, if we lose the current low on the Peso, this would lead to losing potential gains, the currency risk in the trade. So you need to watch both charts if you enter a trade.
Very important to keep an eye on the Philippine Peso if you’re an international investor converting your local currency into Pesos in order to invest in companies in the Philippines, however at present the chart looks like it might be an advantageous back end play. No Guarantees.
Now lets look at a Philippine Stock that is large, liquid and heavily relied upon by multiple sectors in the Philippines and obviously we need a DAMN GOOD CHART.
International Container Terminal Services - SET:ICT
▫️ The chart speaks for itself and presents a good 6:1 risk: reward set up.
▫️ That 100 SMA can provide a nice structural support for anyone wanting to stay in the trade longer or at least have a level that if convincingly lost, you can cut your losses. Equally the 100 SMA would also be a great entry level.
▫️ The above SET:ICT chart reminds me so much of the Reysas LoJistik BIST:RYSAS chart which is a similar business in logistics and transportation but in Turkey. Please have a look below.
COMPARISON
Reysas Lojistic - BIST:RYSAS
▫️ I am sharing this chart as a reference to potential outcomes for ICT.
▫️ Very Similar Company Sector and Chart to the above ICT Chart in Philippines. Could we see similar continued advances in ICT?
There are a number of REALLY interesting chart set ups for the Top 5 companies in the Philippine Stock Exchange (we shared these tickers earlier). I will definitely add these in coming days and weeks as I see a lot of opportunity in the Philippine market place and the currency looks like it might be about to gain positive ground.
It appears the Philippines is undergoing an monumental economic renaissance with the economic and demographic landscape looking incredibly favourable for this versatile archipelago. This nation of Islands is presenting an incredible investment opportunity, so great in fact, I’ve started looking at property there. It has so much potential and appears to be on the cusp of a major bull trend. We can watch the PSE chart and wait for the break out.
All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the Philippine stock market has performed. I hope it’s helpful.
PUKA
Special words for gold trading
We often see these words when trading. If you understand them, trading will be easier.
Including "deposit, withdrawal, position, closing, take profit, stop loss", etc.; they mean:
Deposit: remit personal funds to the trading account for trading;
Withdrawal: transfer part or all of the balance in the trading account to a personal bank account;
Position: the name of the trader buying and selling contracts in the market; establishing a trading order is called "establishing a position", a buy order is called a "long position", and a short-selling order is called a "short position"
Closing: ending a held buy order or sell order;
Take profit: the trading order finally achieves the profit target and leaves the market with a profit;
Stop Loss: When the order loss reaches the maximum tolerable amount, admit the loss and leave the market;
In addition to the commonly used terms, there are also some special terms involved in the trading market;
For example: heavy position, light position, carry order, lock position, liquidation
Heavy position: Most of the funds in the trader's account are involved in order transactions
Light position: The trader only uses a small part of the funds in the account to participate in the order;
In trading, there is a most basic principle that "don't put all your eggs in one basket"
There are always risks in the financial market, and traders should remember one sentence:
Avoid risks, trade with light positions, and never hold heavy positions.
Light position standards:
Total loss of holding positions ≤ one-tenth of the account amount
The number of lots for a single transaction of 10,000 US dollars is not more than 0.5-1 lot
Carry order:
When traders encounter losses, they have no stop-loss strategy, do not know how to stop losses and choose opportunities to start over, but always hold losing orders and bet everything on the rise and fall of the market. This is a behavior that should be avoided in trading.
Locking:
Similar to "carrying orders", when traders encounter losses, they do not implement stop-loss strategies, but establish reverse orders while holding loss orders. Locking can only allow traders to temporarily stop further losses, but cannot get rid of losses. If the net value is not enough, a "black swan event" will occur, and the short-order spread will increase instantly, which will also lead to a margin call.
Margin call:
When the funds in the trader's trading account are not enough to trade, it is a margin call; margin call means the loss of all principal.
If you are a novice, these must be helpful to you! I will share trading knowledge from time to time, and you can follow me if you need it.
iShares Global Energy ETF - $IXC - Major OpportunityiShares Global Energy ETF - AMEX:IXC
This chart and all the others ETF's shared in the below post continue to show major break outs. Its really incredible to see.
✅ Ascending triangle breakout & retest of base
✅ Series of higher lows
✅ Above 200 day SMA
✅ Great Risk Reward set up at 8:1
Garnering some long term exposure to these general indexes is a great way to ride the general Global, Energy, Fintech and blockchain trend. Not included in the below is a potential commodity bull cycle that feeds into it.
NMDC :: Iron Ore Rebounds?NSE:NMDC
- Script sees a breach of Monthly Bearish GPZ alongside Quarterly Bearish GPZ making it a "HOT PIVOT LEVEL" to keep on radar!
- Money Zones are marked alongside in 3 different shades as per the analysis from FUNDFLUX .
- This "Pivot & Price" action is been seen as iron ore prices have rebounded after 2weeks of down-fall and are further expected to rise on the hope of rate cuts from the West and fresh stimulus from China.
- If the trajectory remains strong supported by the anticipated news that this script can see a potential upside of 15-30% on upper levels of 255/280/310.
News Article is provided below -
www.moneycontrol.com
Macro Monday 26~Global Indexes Breaking OutMacro Monday 26
Global Index’s Breaking Out
As its Christmas Eve I wanted to do an early release for tomorrow and share something positive and Christmassy but at the same time share something of value, so here is a look at some of the major global ETF index’s and how promising they appear towards the end of 2023. A clear sector stands out.
Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF - AMEX:VT
In brief this Exchanged Traded Fund (ETF) seeks to track the performance of the FTSE Global All Cap Index (the “Index”) which consists of 99% stocks. The top three portfolio components consist of:
1. 61% in U.S. stocks – The top 5 holdings within this segment are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Future on E-mini S&P Futures.
2. 7.6% stocks in the Eurozone
3. 6.1% stocks in Japan
The overall VT portfolio is typically weighted as follows: Cyclicals (34%), Sensitive (46%) and Defensive (20%). This ETF attempts to provide an economy weighted global ETF product by leveraging the worlds largest economy, the U.S. with some protection against downside risk with defensive and cyclical plays taking up over 50% of the portfolio exposure.
FYI – This index is extremely similar both on the chart and in price to the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF ( NASDAQ:ACWI ). This ETF aims to track the MSCI All Country World Index also. You can look this up and add it to your ticker list for a general sense of the direction of global markets much like the Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF covered here today.
The Chart - chart features in heading of this article
Again, in brief you can see that we have a major breakout of a 3 year long pennant which is a bullish formation. We are also above the 200 day moving average which is slanting upwards (positive).
This Chart/ETF product gives a broad based view on the global economy at present however is obviously strongly reliant on the U.S. economy with 61% of the portfolio in U.S stocks so we will also have a look at a few other index’s that are looking positive at present.
iShares Global Energy ETF - AMEX:IXC
This index seeks to track the S&P Global Energy Sector Index and appears is primarily invested in the Oil and Gas sector. This index is designed to measure the performance of 52 companies in the global energy sector. The company sectors include the following:
1. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Companies
2. Integrated Oil & Gas Companies
3. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution
Integrated Oil and Gas makes up 53% of the portfolio, with Oil and Gas Exploration making up another 22%, and Oil and Gas Storage & transportation 10%. The remainder of the portfolio is other Oil & Gas equipment, services and derivatives.
The Chart
As you can see the chart is forming an ascending triangle and has made a series of higher lows due to upwards price pressure. Should this continue we should eventually have a breakout above the ascending triangle. We are now above the 200 day moving average however it has plateaued and thus we do not want to lose the $39.41 level which would mean we have lost our most recent higher low and would also confirm we have lost the diagonal support line. For now it is positive and we have price pushing higher with higher lows each month.
Global X FinTech ETF - NASDAQ:FINX
The Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the performance of the Indxx Global FinTech Thematic Index. These are companies that are involved in the development and use of financial technology (FinTech).
The ETF seeks to provide exposure to companies at the forefront of financial technology innovation, including those involved in payment processing, digital banking, blockchain technology, peer-to-peer lending, and other disruptive financial services.
Interestingly, Coinbase Global NASDAQ:COIN is its largest holding at 9%, then Intuit Inc NASDAQ:INTU at 8% and Fiserv Inc NYSE:FI at 6%. Other notables are PayPal, Fidelity and Block which are all in the top 10 holdings making up about 4 – 5% of the portfolio each.
This is a fascinating little index that gives you exposure to some of the more established financial entities whilst also providing exposure to the trending innovative financial tech plays. One extra thing I like about this tracked Index is that it is 51% exposed to Information Technology but then you have c.40% in Financials, something people just cannot do without.
The Chart
We have a breakout of a long running descending wedge. Price has fallen c. 65% from the highs made a series of lower lows and has now broken out of the wedge and strongly broken above the 200 day moving average. As I always say, an entry off the 200 DSAM is usually ideal but we have a long term potential change of direction here on the chart could be a signal for FinTech playing a major role over the coming decade in finance. This leads me to my last chart of the day.
Global X Blockchain ETF - NASDAQ:BKCH
The Global X Blockchain ETF ( NASDAQ:BKCH ) is an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the Indxx Blockchain Index. This ) The ETF seeks to invest in companies positioned to benefit from the increased adoption of blockchain technology, including companies in digital asset mining, blockchain & digital asset transactions, blockchain applications, blockchain & digital asset hardware, and blockchain & digital asset integration.
Earlier this year I spotted a very promising opportunity in the Cleanspark Inc NASDAQ:CLSK Chart, I checked the major components of this ETF only to find CLSK as a top three holding making up 12% of the portfolio weighting in the ETF, this helped confirm my conviction to place a trade. Since investing and sharing the original chart this stock has increased >100%+. As I noted above, when you see large institutional indexes/or tracked indexes showing a lot of faith in a company and putting their money where their mouth is with these sorts of weightings, it can be a confirmation signal after finding a brilliant looking chart. Marathon Digital NASDAQ:MARA is the largest holding in the ETF at 17% and Coinbase comes at 2nd place at 14%. The remainder of the portfolio is collection of other blockchain related firms including PayPal, Block, Cipher Mining, Nvidia, Robinhood, Bakkt holdings, Galaxy Digital…I think you get the picture.
The Chart
This chart is very similar to the Fintech Chart however it has some subtle differences that make it a more favorable chart. The 200 DSMA is clearly on the ascend for a number of months and appears to have demonstrated itself as support. We have higher lows and now a higher high…. which says a lot. We also have the obvious breakout from the pennant. All in All this is beautiful looking chart however we should note that we had a strong pull back in summer 2023 and we could have another from the $60 level. If you are placing bids on this chart it should be for the long haul and as always, an ideal entry is off the 200 DSMA or your Dollar Cost Averaging for a long term hold.
These are a few of the charts that I track closely but rarely talk about, some of the major holdings in these stocks helped lead some of my investment decisions this year. If big money and funds are investing in a company or sector where the chart is also looking good, its was always an indication to me that money could be flowing towards these stocks, especially when making up such large positions within these large index funds.
If you enjoyed me covering index and the inferences drawn from them let me know and I’ll share some of the others I track.
Folks things are looking really good for the long term on all the above global indexes
Happy Christmas Everyone
PUKA
Crude Oil Review and Forecast
API Actual: 9.047M
API Consensus: 1.467M
EIA Crude Import Actual 0.259M
EIA Crude Import Previous: -0.385M
EIA Crude stock Actual: 8.701M
EIA Crude stock consensus: 1.160M
As Saudi Oil production had shrunk to nine million barrels per day in July since its last OPEC meeting with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening global demand in slowing economy, Saudi, the largest oil supplier in the world had expressed its opinion on keeping the production to remain low until the end of this year. As foreseen through such decisions from the major suppliers, the most recent Crude inventory within the states has turned out to be way larger than expected.
Since September of 2023, the Crude oil future TVC:USOIL plunged by $-22.35 (-23.62%) to $72.28 per barrel during the last week trading session. Slower than expected recovery in economic activities(PPI Nov 2023) adding fear of the constant weakening of the oil demand, forecasting a skeptical view towards a short term recovery of the oil demand and its price as well.
The key major resistances are as follow:
Top: $77.8
Mid: $75.5
Low: $72.12
The weekly upside trend is still the last hope for the Bullish traders.
Once both the Four-hours and the daily candles closes below the $64-60 zone, we will then be able to finalize on such ambiguous consensus.
With OPEC+ meeting pushed back to this weekends, every commodity investors focus is on the meeting report, hoping for the decision to give them the better foresight of the future of the market.
The Best Futures Trading Hours in Crude:
CL opens for trading on the floor, called the pit session at 9AM EST
European trading closes at 11:30 AM EST
The best hours for trading are the most liquid, between 9:00AM and 11:30AM
Pit session closes at 2:30PM EST, when floor trading stops for the day
Therefore, the best trading in the afternoon is the last hour between 1:30PM to 2:30PM EST
Globant SA (NYSE: GLOB) Impressive Q3 Financial PerformanceGlobant SA (NYSE: GLOB) announced its impressive financial performance for the third quarter. The company surpassed analyst expectations, demonstrating its continued growth and success.
During this quarter, Globant reported earnings of $1.48 per share, which exceeded the analyst consensus estimate of $1.47 by 0.68 percent. This represents a significant increase of 16.54 percent compared to the earnings of $1.27 per share in the same period last year.
Furthermore, the company achieved remarkable quarterly sales of $545.28 million, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $545.23 million by 0.01 percent. This notable achievement signifies an impressive growth rate of 18.83 percent compared to the sales from the same period last year.
Globant’s ability to outperform analyst predictions in both earnings and sales showcases its strong business strategy and execution. This performance highlights the company’s commitment to delivering exceptional results and reinforces its position as a leader in the industry.
The stock performance of GLOB (Globant S.A.) was closely watched by investors. With a previous close of $183.09, the stock opened at $193.96 and had a day’s range of $193.96 to $206.99. The volume traded on that day was 1,243,797 shares, significantly higher than the average volume of 382,698 shares over the past three months. With a market cap of $7.6 billion, GLOB is a significant player in the technology services sector.
GLOB has been experiencing impressive earnings growth. In the last year, its earnings grew by 51.33%, and this year, it has grown by 13.20%. Looking ahead, the company is projected to have an earnings growth of 23.35% over the next five years. This positive trend in earnings growth indicates that GLOB is performing well and has a promising future.
In terms of revenue growth, GLOB has also shown remarkable progress. Last year, its revenue grew by 37.25%, which is a significant achievement. This growth indicates that the company is attracting more clients and generating higher sales. This positive revenue growth is likely to contribute to the company’s overall profitability and success.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
GLOB is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
ITALY PREPARING FOR NEXT LEG TO THE BULL MARKETThe Italy 40 index, or the FTSE MIB, is considered the benchmark for the national Italian stock exchange, the Borsa Italiana. The index consists of the 40 most capitalized and liquid stocks that are listed on the Borsa Italiana.
The IT40 now seems to have begun rising in what is expected to be the wave iii of 3 for the index. This particular wave is expected to take the index towards the 40K mark from the current 29k mark(a hefty 40% move).
The index of the European country is one more global index to be added to list of several others on the move in a bull market that can go on for several more years to come(of course with regular corrections and pauses on the way).
Note*- This chart is for educational purpose only
HONG KONG joins the bull marketThe HANG SENG INDEX is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong.
The index has underperformed the rest of the world since March 2020 and was among the worst performing indices globally from 2020-2022.
In October 2022 however the Index seems to have moved up in a 5 wave structure after having seen quite a freefall from Feb. 2021. This 5 wave advance completed in Jan 2023, and since then, till the very recent low of Oct.2023 the Index corrected 61.8% of the entire Wave 1 rise.
Now however, the Index is ready give a massive 40-45% up move as the Wave 3 unfolds itself going forward into 2024-2025.
Note*- This post is for educational purpose only
A very long-term (Macro) Approach To US/Global MarketsAfter completing my weekend research/videos, I wanted to create something that provided an anchor for traders/investors.
This video is not focused on the short-term market trends - although it does discuss what I expect to see play out over the next 12 to 24 months.
This video is more about preparing traders/investors for the global events related to Central Banks, market trends/opportunities, and how I believe the markets will react over the next 5+ years.
After watching this video, your job will be to watch for key events to unfold. These events, described in the video, will be key to understanding where opportunities and risks are in market trends.
This is NOT the same market we've been used to from 2010 through 2021. This is an entirely different beast of a global market.
Credit/debt issues will persist, and conflicts/war may drive major repricing events.
Pay attention and follow my research.
I'm delivering this long-term research to help you better prepare for market trends and protect your capital from downside risks.
Global debt hits record $307 trillion, debt ratios climb -IIFGlobal debt reached a record high of $307 trillion in the second quarter, despite higher interest rates limiting bank lending. The United States and Japan were the main drivers of this increase, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The IIF's report revealed that global debt in dollar terms rose by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade.
This surge in debt has pushed the global debt-to-GDP ratio to 336% for the second consecutive quarter. The report attributes this rise to a slowdown in economic growth and price increases, resulting in nominal GDP expanding at a slower pace than debt levels. Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainability Research at the IIF, noted that the debt-to-GDP ratio is once again increasing after declining for seven consecutive quarters, mostly due to easing inflationary pressures. The IIF expects the debt-to-output ratio to surpass 337% by the end of the year, as wage and price pressures continue to moderate.
Experts and policymakers have been warning about the growing levels of debt, which can lead countries, corporations, and households to tighten their belts and reduce spending and investments, ultimately impacting economic growth and living standards.
More than 80% of the recent increase in debt came from developed countries, with the United States, Japan, Britain, and France experiencing the largest increases. Among emerging markets, China, India, and Brazil saw the highest rises in debt. This is a notable shift, as emerging markets are exhibiting a better trend compared to developed markets for the first time in a while, according to Todd Martinez, co-head of the Americas sovereign team at Fitch Ratings.
The report also highlighted that household debt-to-GDP in emerging markets is still higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, primarily driven by China, Korea, and Thailand. However, mature markets have seen the lowest household debt-to-GDP ratio in two decades during the first half of this year. Tiftik mentioned that consumer debt burdens appear manageable, and if inflationary pressures persist, the health of household balance sheets, particularly in the United States, will provide some protection against further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
While markets currently do not anticipate a near-term rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the target rate is expected to remain between 5.25% and 5.5% until at least May of next year. This sustained high rate in the U.S. could put pressure on emerging markets as investors prioritize the less risky developed world for investment.
USD vs Foreign Currency Sets Up Black Swan/Credit Event 2028-29USD vs Foreign Currency Sets Up Black Swan/Credit Event – Pay Attention
This video will show why the US stock market continues to rally and the US Dollar continues to strengthen. It is all related to what is happening in China/Asia and much of the world.
The cheap US interest rates over the past 4+ years have allowed foreign borrowers to take advantage of localized demand for capital and the “Dollar Carry Trade.” When you can borrow USD for 2.5%, convert the USD capital into localized currencies, and use that capital to earn 20% or more – it’s easy to borrow as much as you can to make the extra 18% - right?
As long as there is no disruption in currency valuation levels and/or economic activities, it seems like a simple process for profits.
But when localized currencies collapse against the US Dollar, this sets up a very dangerous waterfall event. Now, the profitable USD carry trade is upside down from the start. It takes 25~35% more localized currency to repay the USD debt.
Additionally, consider that the performance of these borrowed funds may also be upside down related to profits. If the localized economy collapses and consumers are not buying, now you have additional downside pressure related to economic performance.
This is why the rush into USD-based assets and equities continues. The rally we see in the US indexes/stocks is almost “in the face” of the US Fed raising interest rates while trying to weaken inflation. It is almost as if the US Fed has acted in a predatory manner by raising interest rates – yet failed to understand the dynamics of the global markets.
The result will be a Black Swan type of credit event. Buckle up and prepare for it.
Follow my research and prepare for the biggest opportunity of your lifetime.
Global Liquidity vs BTCUSDIn this idea we'll have a look global liquidity vs BTCUSD on a quarterly timeframe.
The main pane contains the bars of a new global liquidity formula discovered by Twitter TechDev_52. On top of the bars is a solid orange line which is BTCUSD both on quarterly timeframe. Also on the main pane is a value grid for global liquidity which is based on time and global liquidity closing values.
The secondary panes show the DB ZPS RSI values of global liquidity and BTCUSD. The entire point of this idea is three factors; 1) showcase the beautiful cyclical nature of global liquidity and 2) to show the beautiful cyclical nature of BTCUSD and financially 3) the near 1-to-1 high timeframe cycle pattern matches.
It's common theory that as global liquidity increases money flows into highly valuable assets and then trickles into secondary assets in a lagging manner. If this idea is correct, this would showcase the best periods to enter and exit assets from a very high level from an investment point of mind.
To the investor these cyclical patterns are a gift that shows periods of wealth growing opportunities in traded assets. Enjoy!
Deciphering Divergent Signals The Complex Economic LandscapeThe global economy continues to face profound uncertainties in the wake of COVID-19's massive disruptions. For policymakers and business leaders, making sense of divergent signals on jobs, inflation, and growth remains imperative yet challenging.
In the United States, inflation pressures appear to be moderately easing after surging to 40-year highs in 2022. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 3% in June from the prior peak of 9.1%. Plunging gasoline and used car prices provided some consumer relief, while housing and food costs remained worryingly elevated. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, dipped to 4.8% but persists well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Supply chain improvements, waning pandemic demand spikes, and the strong dollar making imports cheaper all helped cool inflation. However, risks abound that high prices become entrenched with tight labor markets still buoying wages. Major central banks responded with substantial interest rate hikes to reduce demand, but the full economic drag likely remains unseen. Further supply shocks from geopolitics or weather could also reignite commodity inflation. While the direction seems promising, the Fed vows ongoing vigilance and further tightening until inflation durably falls to acceptable levels. The path back to price stability will be bumpy.
Yet even amidst surging inflation, the US labor market showed resilience through 2022. Employers added over 4 million jobs, driving unemployment down to 3.5%, matching pre-pandemic lows. This simultaneous inflation and job growth confounds historical norms where Fed tightening swiftly slows hiring.
Pandemic-era stimulus and savings initially cushioned households from rate hikes, sustaining consumer demand. Early retirements, long COVID disabilities, caregiving needs, and possibly a cultural rethinking of work also constricted labor supply. With fewer jobseekers available, businesses retained and attracted talent by lifting pay, leading to nominal wage growth even outpacing inflation for some months.
However, the labor market's anomalous buoyancy shows growing fragility. Job openings plunged over 20% since March, tech and housing layoffs multiplied, and wage growth decelerated – all signals of softening demand as higher rates bite. Most economists expect outright job losses in coming months as the Fed induces a deliberate recession to conquer inflation.
Outside the US, other economies show similar labor market resilience assisted by generous pandemic supports. But with emergency stimulus now depleted, Europe especially looks vulnerable. Energy and food inflation strain household budgets as rising rates threaten economies already flirting with recession. Surveys show consumer confidence nosediving across European markets. With less policy space, job losses may mount faster overseas if slowdowns worsen.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s economy and currency proved surprisingly robust. Peso strength reflects Mexico’s expanding manufacturing exports, especially autos, amid US attempts to nearshore production and diversify from China reliance. Remittances from Mexican immigrants also reached new highs, supporting domestic demand. However, complex immigration issues continue challenging US-Mexico ties.
The pandemic undoubtedly accelerated pre-existing workforce transformations. Millions older employees permanently retired. Younger cohorts increasingly spurn traditional career ladders, cobbling together gig work and passion projects. Remote technology facilitated this cultural shift toward customized careers and lifestyle priorities.
Many posit these preferences will now permanently reshape labor markets. Employers clinging to old norms of in-office inflexibility may struggle to hire and retain talent, especially younger workers. Tighter immigration restrictions also constrain domestic labor supply. At the same time, automation and artificial intelligence will transform productivity and skills demands.
In this context, labor shortages could linger regardless of economic cycles. If realized, productivity enhancements from technology could support growth with fewer workers. But displacement risks require better policies around skills retraining, portable benefits, and income supports. Individuals must continually gain new capabilities to stay relevant. The days of lifelong stable employer relationships appear gone.
For policymakers, balancing inflation control and labor health presents acute challenges. Achieving a soft landing that curtails price spikes without triggering mass unemployment hardly looks guaranteed. The Fed’s rapid tightening applies tremendous pressure to an economy still experiencing profound demographic, technological, and cultural realignments.
With less room for stimulus, other central banks face even more daunting dilemmas. Premature efforts to rein in inflation could induce deep recessions and lasting scars. But failure to act also risks runaway prices that erode living standards and stability. There are no easy solutions with both scenarios carrying grave consequences.
For business leaders, adjusting to emerging realities in workforce priorities and automation capabilities remains imperative. Companies that embrace flexible work options, prioritize pay equity, and intelligently integrate technologies will gain a competitive edge in accessing skills and talent. But transitions will inevitably be turbulent.
On the whole, the global economy's trajectory looks cloudy. While the inflation fever appears to be modestly breaking, risks of resurgence remain as long as labor markets show tightness. But just as rising prices moderate, the delayed impacts from massive rate hikes threaten to extinguish job growth and demand. For workers, maintaining adaptability and skills development is mandatory to navigate gathering storms. Any Coming downturn may well play out differently than past recessions due to demographic shifts, cultural evolution, and automation. But with debt levels still stretched thin across sectors, the turbulence could yet prove intense. The path forward promises to be volatile and uneven amidst the lingering pandemic aftershocks. Navigating uncertainty remains imperative but challenging.
GOLD SHORT I will keep utilizing Selling every Top's strategy (for #3-Month fractal now) as my Selling order engaged on Friday's session is still active (#1,958.80 entry point) as it is very important that market closed below #1,957.80 sequence. DX is my main chart for now and look for pointers there prior to positioning. #1,942.80 is my first Target and #1,940 is my second Target
THE DXY WILL DETERMINE THE EUR/USD NEXT MOVEFollowing this concept is very easy if you are a WAVES TRADER. DXY is at the final correction of AB. What we should be waiting and looking for is WAVE C to start building up in order to continue the bearish movement for EUR/USD to move in the opposite direction.
Good luck
AUD/JPY SELL LOADING UP WATCHFirst, if you find this idea helpful kindly like and leave a comment don't also forget to follow us
AUDJPY is still looking for the final completion of the WAVE X correction before the bearish impulse move will starts. Traders should look for a way to follow the bear moves after the completion of the WAVE X correction and join the WAVE Y to the downside
LOW WCA - Ascending TriangleCompany: Lowe's Companies, Inc.
Ticker: LOW
Exchange: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Introduction:
In today's technical analysis, we're focusing on Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW), a prominent player in the Consumer Discretionary sector listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Lowe's weekly chart is currently showcasing an Ascending Triangle pattern, indicative of a potential bullish reversal.
Ascending Triangle Pattern:
An Ascending Triangle pattern typically emerges during periods of consolidation and is often considered a bullish indicator. The pattern is characterized by a flat upper trendline (resistance) and an ascending lower trendline (support), both of which converge as the pattern matures.
Analysis:
Previously, Lowe's was in a noticeable downtrend, as indicated by the blue diagonal resistance line. However, over the last 420 days, Lowe's stock price has consolidated, forming an Ascending Triangle pattern. This pattern is considered to act as a bullish reversal indicator.
The Ascending Triangle's upper horizontal boundary lies at $221, boasting three touchpoints, while the upward sloping lower boundary also shows three touchpoints. The symmetry of these touchpoints lends credibility to the Ascending Triangle pattern.
Should we observe a breakout above the Ascending Triangle, we can anticipate a potential price target of $270. This implies a potential opportunity for a 22% price increase from the breakout level.
Conclusion:
This analysis suggests that Lowe's Companies, Inc. may be primed for a bullish reversal, representing potential investment opportunities.
As always, it's essential to validate this technical analysis with other indicators, market trends, and relevant news for comprehensive investment decisions. Not financial advice.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you profitable trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh