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Will The U.S Dollar Collapse ?OANDA:XAUUSD Currencies fall for various reasons and they include: 1. Political or economic disorder 2. Hyperinflation 3. War 4. A labor market decline 5. Recession, among various other reasons. 1.The United States has weathered several political and economic disorders since its formation in 1776. The country was on the brink of collapse during the Great Depression in 1929 but successfully weathered the storm in 1939. Not only did it withstand the Great Depression, but it also fought World War II with valor the same year. The will to overcome all odds is in the blood of Americans come hell or high water. Therefore, the US has more chances to overcome political or economic disorder due to this very spirit. 2 Hyperinflation Inflation in the US is high but has not reached hyperinflation yet. The Federal Reserve managed to bring down rates from 8% to 6.5% and are rowing the boat, despite muddy waters. Hyperinflation taking over the country with daily essentials becoming 50 times more expensive might never be a reality. 3. War The US is technically not at war but funds wars overseas, be it Ukraine, Syria, and Yemen, among other countries. A rogue nation attacking the US since 9/11 is nil, and the country is not at war today. The US is more equipped to handle and thwart terrorist attacks today than it was ever before. 4. Labor Market Decline The job markets remain robust despite several leading tech firms firing thousands of employees since 2020. Businesses are thriving, and jobs for small and big-level employees remain open for hire. Though the job markets remain on shaky grounds, it managed to sustain and grow, even in muddy conditions. 5. Recession While talks of a recession are growing louder, a recession has technically not hit the markets yet. Both the stock and cryptocurrency markets are doing favorably well in 2023 and generating decent returns for investors. However, a recession cannot be ruled out, as there’s pressure on the financial markets. Considering all the above points, the US stands in a favorable position with the only recession being its weak point. Moreover, since a recession is yet to arrive (or might not arrive), the weak point can be removed for now. In conclusion, the other sore spots can be worked upon and brought under control in the coming years. So Will The US Dollar Collapse? BRICS is yet to finalize a new currency in the upcoming summit in South Africa. The problem with BRICS nations is that decisions are not made swiftly and quickly due to various factors. Asian countries working with each other is not as easy as said. The factors involve India’s broken relations with China and vice-versa. India and China have always been on the wrong ends, and the bitter political disputes could only make things worse. Technically, the US dollar is backed as the default global reserve currency with billions worth of trades being executed each day. The US dollar has a special status globally and is considered one of the safest currencies. The United States is still the biggest economy in the world with an annual GDP of around $23 trillion. Even if the US falters, it always has and will find a way to remain at the top and be an undisputed global leader. The Great Depression is one big example of how nothing is impossible for Americans to succeed in troubled times.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by INVESTRONE
The SPY Capitulation Bottom Will Surprise Global Traders.My research suggests the SPY is setting up a massive Capitulation bottom - and likely to move dramatically higher over the next 5+ years. It's too early to call this a confirmed bottom signal - but, it may be a great time to start looking for some "anchor trades" in the best stocks/sectors headed into 2024 and beyond. My research combines technical analysis, economic functions, cycles, and predictive analysis. While everyone seems to be calling for a massive price collapse, I continue to tell everyone "get ready for the RALLY". I could be wrong - time will tell. All I know is the technical/cycle and fundamental economic structure don't correlate with a massive price collapse now, or even in 2030~2035. What I see is a very big extended Wave-5 function that NO ONE is seeing. Follow my research. This is the greatest opportunity of your lifetime.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
BTC Outlook 2023-2025Fresh new data and more information of significant factors brings me to a new deliberate prediction. The corrective wave that we are in is not a usual corrective wave. It could make twice as long as the two previous corrective waves in 2014 and 2018, an ABC move from a larger degree of Elliot Wave (Could be a wave 4 from the whole BTC movement since 2009). Currently we are in a bear market rally that potentially will bring BTC up to 25k, from there the corrective move will continue to the bottom which potentially at 8k in early 2024. I still believe potential Fed pivot will be around Q4 2023-Q1 2024 and inflation at that time will probably sits around 2-3%. 3% is good enough to restart the Quantitative Easing. Due to the longer corrective wave, 4th BTC Halving in Q2 2024 will occur in the 1st wave, not the same with the last three halvings that occured in the 3rd wave. This also means that we are approximately one year away from the beginning of a new bull market that potentially will make BTC going up to 140k or 1600% from 8k. Expect more business entities to collapse, more lay-offs and rising unemployment which also means rising in crime rates. Take care and survive!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by derahmanov
Economic Outlook for 10-15 years aheadMy Economic Outlook for 10-15 years ahead The rare double-dip recession October CPI report shows Inflation slightly decreased to 7.7% and The Fed already made a statement to decrease The Fedfunds Rate. Potential Fed pivot approximately will occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. That will be the time of disinflationary period or maybe we are already in by now. What to be expected in disinflationary period is stock market drawdown will continue, rising unemployment, more business entities will collapse, fewer job openings, in short 2023 will be dark especially in the US. Technically it is a recession. The good news is inflation can be pushed back to 2% area and from there QE can be restarted. Most people that already tired by long economic drawdown are strongly craving for bull market. Productivity will rise again along with its economic and secondary leverage and a creeping up inflation leaving the 2% area. An inherent nature of capitalism. The question is what will be the destiny of Petrodollar as its losing control over the total international trade volume. The rapid change of global power dynamics which spearheaded by BRICS+ economy has substantially diminish the Dollar hegemony. The regional powers that have control over the world commodities are grouping up to create a new, commodity-backed currency. In addition to that there is a strongly rising tension between Russia and NATO. More than 50 years ago, the US left the Bretton-Woods System and to keep the US dollar relevant as global reserve currency, Petrodollar was introduced and rapidly embraced by the OPEC which consequently making the US Dollar became the world's most traded currency. That is the underlying value of the Dollar besides of debt. But the current astronomical $30+ Trillion of government debt and the weakening of Petrodollar globally has come to a critical question of what will be the next US decisive move? Chaos has to be applied first to disrupt any potential challenger to the US Dollar, and from there a revolutionary economic policy has to be implemented. Worst case scenario is the new Great Depression can manifest after almost 100 years since its first occurrence in 1929. Note: This economic outlook which also the same with any version of economic outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. This post is mean for educational purpose only.
TVC:SPX
by derahmanov
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd Long Fundamental Analysis Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. is the largest crude oil and natural gas company in India, contributing almost seventy one percent to Indian domestic production, and is also the one of most profitable PSU in India. Revenue Mix of the company • Crude Oil - 70% of FY21 revenue • Natural Gas - 17% of FY21 revenue • Value Added Products(VAP) - 13% VAP includes products such as LPG, Naphtha, Ethane – Propane, Butane, and superior kerosene oil. ONGC is catering 93.5% of revenue is from India and 6.5% through International Trade. Key Data : Stock PE Ratio 3.48 Industry PE Ratio 17.8 PB Ratio 0.67 Current Market Price INR 138 Book Value INR 206 ROE 19.50% Dividend Yield 7.62% High/Low 195/120 52W Index 24% PEG Ratio 0.24 ** Eye opening facts are, book value of company is INR 206 while stock is traded with stock exchange around INR 138. ** PE Ratio of stock is mere 3.48 as against Industry PE ratio of 17.8 ** As per recent quarterly data, revenue is rising on quarter on quarter basis. ** Global Crude oil price is set on rise since couple of days. ONGC is one of the largest crude extraction companies as far as India is concerned. So, increase in crude price in global level favorable for ONGC. As per Elliot Wave, stock is likely to touched INR 148 in couple of days. However with strong backing of fundamental data and global trend, stock may touched his 52 week high ( INR 195) once again in couple of days. ** I am not SEBI Registered Investor. This business analysis is for education purpose only. Your comments/suggestions are welcome.
NSE:ONGCLong
by UnknownUnicorn39322609
BLUE LINE - Last Support For Crude OilIs this it? Headed into the end of 2023 - are we going to see Crude Oil fall below $76 ppb as COVID & economic concerns trap the global economy into a contraction phase? My research suggests Crude Oil will attempt to find support near $63 to $65 before attempting to bottom. From current levels, this suggests a -$30 ppb downward price trend is likely. Two things are likely driving this trend: Lack of global demand Inflation/Price concerns Has the current Flag/Pennant reached the APEX and is price attempting to break downward? Time will tell... Follow my research.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BradMatheny
So, I looked at the CNY (Chinese Yuan or Juan) more, and..Check out my most recent publishing(s) referring to this particular exchange rate in the "Related Ideas" section below if your interested in the USDCNY. I took a closer look at my in-depth analysis over the weekend and felt as though it needed some adjustments (additions*) + further complication.. but its for the better.. hear me out. Ive been spending the last month or so, and will be spending as much time as necessary to catch up and become more and more familiar with what's appearing to become an even more disastrous real estate market than what we know to be the worst recorded event (in relativity) in capitalism history. ("the 2008 financial crisis") This event could be worse, simply due to the fact that China is so powerful.. (which is good for us; the money managers!) As a trader, its important to consider the recent upturn regarding political and socioeconomic gossip. IYKYK There is plenty of public and freely available information on how to approach any market using fundamental risk management. Save this, be patient, and ask questions. Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
Are you prepared for what's next?Long-term cycle analysis shows we are already past the end of an Appreciation Cycle Phase. This means the global markets are shifting into a Depreciation Cycle Phase (similar to the unraveling of credit/debt in 2006~09. If you have not already prepared for this, you need to start thinking about what the next 5 to 7+ years are going to look like and how you need to protect your assets. I know what I'm doing RIGHT NOW in preparation for this deflationary price cycle. Asset and Commodity prices have already spiked to multi-year highs. Capital is flowing away from China/Asia, and parts of Europe, as continued credit/debt and consumer/economic factors contract. You better believe, at some point, these trends will be reflected in the US markets - they just have not shown up right now. The FED may change all that THIS YEAR. So, don't say I didn't warn you. I'm ranking this as NEUTRAL related to US Major Market Trends. Things could go either direction over the next 6+ months, but I see more downside risk than upside opportunity right now. Follow my research.
ECONOMICS:USCSHPIMM
by BradMatheny
EURNZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro...EUR is the most inflationary currency, whereas NZD is the most deflationary. Based on Micro Bias, Global Macro Bias, and other factors... My strognerst number was never assigned to this pair.... Consequently, I will maintain my short position in the EURNZD, and based on current information, we might continue in this manner for another week... Someone among you who has been following the previous three transactions on the EURNZD, Continue reading and don't shut your browser! :)
Short
by Idealadvantage