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The global market crash of 2020 and the invisible recessionThe global market crash of 2020 and the invisible recession: Laying over a select number of my tweets from 2019 and 2020 with calls for the a 40% correction, the start of the recession, and tentative dates for the global market crash. I was off by a few days, but it's hard to predict the future. Obviously, right? Also, I had my confirming signal exactly two years ago in July 2019 which is why I am sharing this now. 2 years since from confirmation. I used various dark patterns, analyses, and techniques which gave me then the confidence that there was a black swan underway.
TVC:SPX
by mgogel
Bitcoin For Intraday Trading 5-8-13 EMA5-8-13 EMA FOR INTRADAY TIME FRAME SUGGESTED: 15 MIN Buy Trading Plan: 1. Buy when the yellow line crosses up with the blue line 2. Best to buy when all the line pink, blue & yellow meet and crosses up Sell Trading Plan: 1. Sell when the yellow line crosses below the blue line Notes: Pink Line ( EMA 13): Long term Blue Line ( EMA 8): Midterm Yellow Line (EMA 5): Short term When the arrangement of the lines in a sequence of bottom pink, middle blue & top is yellow hence the stock consider as in the uptrend When the arrangement of the lines in a sequence of top pink, middle blue & bottom is yellow hence the stock consider as in the downtrend Hold the stocks when the lines in this sequences; Top = Yellow Middle = Blue Bottom = Pink *Just ride the trend until it bends
by shahidah_sf
4
Volatility Index Peaking Above 12 again. Watch Out BelowThis Custom Index helps to gauge market peaks (above 12~13 usually) and bottoms (below 7~8 usually). When this Custom Index hovers above 10~11, the market tends to trend higher with volatility event ranging from 7% to 11% in price breakdowns. The fact that this indicator has broken a historic standard deviation channel because of COVID and quickly regained price activity within this channel again suggests that the markets have become extremely overvalued (hyper-inflated). A reversion event is likely to draw this indicator back below 8~9 which would suggest a downside price event is likely to setup over the Summer months in global markets. Given the amount of Central Bank and US Fed intervention recently, I'm expecting a deleveraging event (possibly related to a credit/asset crisis) that may shock the markets over the next 24 months. My broader cycles research suggests we have entered a Depreciation phase that may last well past 2027. Therefore, it is very likely that extreme volatility events are likely. Stay properly hedged. This is not a friendly market any longer (simple upside trends). This market has turned very dangerous for unskilled traders. My advice, prepare for chaos and protect your assets ahead of a risks/crisis event. The next 5+ years are not going to be normal market trends. We may see crisis events throughout many areas of the world related to over leveraging, deleveraging, credit market crisis and/or continued COVID/economic crisis events. In short, this market is setup for a massive deleveraging event within the next 24 months.
AMEX:VTILong
by BradMatheny
Is the overall market due for a bigger selloff?Price has reached the previous order block where the last directional initiation was created to the downside. I am expecting the price to start going to the downside from here. We are also in a debt bubble/crisis that is ready to burst at any moment. The markets are artificially lifted up by government funding. This is not sustainable as the actual economy has been hit really hard by the pandemic. We are approaching the end of an 80-year cycle and anything at this point could trigger a massive collapse like in 1929. The technical analysis is from the Wyckoff method theory which has been good to me in the past. I just think we are due for a big blood bath and a redistribution of wealth, and more substantial than the 2008 financial crisis!
TSX:CIFShort
by TheSnowballEffect
Australia [ASX 200] - 2021 outlookPurple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily Hello Traders and Analysts, The following analysis will be in depth to explain the out look of the Index and Based on what merit? Being a commodity based currency we need to analyse the US and commodities as Australia a produce of raw materials. The Australian economy is commodity based but also well suited to self-sufficiency in some aspects from raw material production, construction but relies on Tourism and exports to keep the Aussie afloat. With the ASX correlated with the S&P500 - we expect the ASX to over extend the Fibonacci targets to the upside into 2021 upon the global recovery. XAG We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the zone of $29.00. Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of the reluctance for the demand of the Commodities . However, this produced a demand zone to hold from so we have a buying opportunity. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself now between $22-27 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. The long term wider chart is available below; XAU Daily longs are still in play after Weekly longs Monthly long Retrace is occurring on the weekly time frame - but can this be building up Fibonacci level aligns of 50% around 1939 and 61.8% at 1907.00 USD. This retracement zone will show a great long identification Retrace needed to to confirm liquidity from the strong demand. Current market at play for XAU USD S&P500 from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure. Where price had a low of 2182, this significant point to me, showed the imbalance between the previous Fibonacci extension points 1.786, 1.618. This was essentially fulfilling the swing high and creating a swing low. Refer back to 2007-08 on the chart to see the imbalances - where; the blue Ellipse - shows the 2008 rally distribution beginning to take effect. The Red Ellipse - shows the pivotal 1.7186, 1.618 full retracement zones - where the "china trade war" and "coronavirus" fundamentals took place for the index to fall back in line. The current bullish momentum will be created from the stimulus coming further into 2021, presidential change and USD index or DXY being suppressed. This projection offers the rate of debt the debt market cycle has not been reacting negatively yet with yields still intact and further debt creation to refinance debt obligations . Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. Pure imbalance trades - with further explanations on the graphs to understand. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks, Team LVPA.
ASX:XJOLong
by LupaCapital
10-yr market cycle for FX, commodities, value, & global stocks?The US dollar tends to trade in a ten-year cycle relative to global currencies. It outperforms for ten years, then underperforms for ten years, then outperforms, and so on. This year we seem to have ended a cycle of outperformance when the US dollar broke its ten-year trend line (orange line on the chart). The dollar is inversely correlated to all sorts of other things, including alternative currencies (including Bitcoin), commodities (including metals), global equities (developed, emerging, and frontier markets), and perhaps the value/growth ratio (mostly because value companies like energy majors and miners benefit from strong commodities prices). That means that the ten-year dollar cycle also tends to create ten-year cycles in these other markets. The downward dollar breakout has already led to an upward breakout in the ratios of global and emerging markets equities to US equities (purple and green lines on the chart). A recent survey of investment managers showed that they believe emerging markets will be the best performer over the next ten years. Commodities also rank highly in those investment manager surveys, and we are nearing a trend line break for commodities (red line on the chart). The value/growth ratio (black line on the chart) has been showing a little life as well, and it's possible that we will also head toward a trend line break in that ratio.
AMEX:USCILong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
A Trader's ThanksgivingThanksgiving is a distinctly American holiday, where our nation takes pause to reflect on all the things we have to be thankful for due to the actions of a courageous band of dedicated men and women who crossed a dangerous ocean to an unknown continent for the simple hope... of freedom. As traders, I am glad that we all, regardless of our national origin, our political bent, our religious affiliation, (or most importantly, a preference of Star Wars over Star Trek), we indeed have so much to be thankful for. In my early days of trading classes a common statement from my classmates to our instructors was "I wish I started trading 20 years ago like you did!" And inexorably the instructor would say, "No you don't... *today* it's so much better to learn how to trade... The entry level is so low... you don't have to go to an exchange every day... you have immediate access to a global market with a simple app download or a click of a browser," and the list went on... As a trader, I am thankful that we can make money regardless of economic ups and downs, that every day can be a "green day" in our account even when the S&P, Crude Oil, or whatever it was that had a red-candle day because we have the ability to go short as well as long! As a trader, I am thankful that we have access to a world of free information like BarChart or CMEGroup that can tell us things like what is the current contract, when are economic reports coming out, and technical analysis. As a trader, I'm thankful to all the free tools available, like the free version of TradingView, Google Docs and Spreadsheets, YouTube, and so on. As a trader, I'm thankful for the overall giving nature of our community, that traders generally and genuinely like helping fellow traders. Unlike Corporate America where it is dog-eat dog, or owning a business in a niche market where there is great competition to attract a limited number of customers, the opportunity for all traders are for all intents and purposes, *infinite*, and we all share in the collective success of the entire group! As a trader, I'm thankful that I have no one to ask permission to take time for a family emergency, a medical emergency, a vacation, or anything that would normally interrupt or cripple a business owner's income or an employee's job security, and when I'm ready to get back to trading, the market will be right there waiting for me. As a trader, I'm thankful that we have access to markets nearly 24x7 so we can work as much or as little as we like or need, and opportunity isn't governed by asking someone for the privilege to work for *them*. Dear Reader, fellow Trader, what are YOU thankful for? Share your thoughts with our awesome community below! Happy Thanksgiving, wherever you are! -Anthony
CME_MINI:NQZ2020Education
by ocaptain
14
Dollar Index Resembles This Moment in Time Some traders may remember the historic selloff in the U.S. dollar that began in late 2002. Current conditions appear similar. Notice on this chart how the U.S. dollar index pushed to a new 52-week low and then consolidated. Notice how the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) tried to turn higher but failed. Notice how DXY also tested the 100-day SMA and failed. Now look at this chart from 2001-2002, showing similar events. Also consider that both 2002 and 2020 followed periods of dollar strength and troubles overseas. The late 1990s had the global debt crises, while the last 5-8 years had ongoing weakness in Europe. Speaking of Europe, everyone’s waiting for a deal between Westminster and Brussels to avert a “hard Brexit” on December 31. An agreement ending the uncertainty would probably spur confidence in the euro and drag the dollar index lower. Finally, consider that the dollar’s breakdown in late 2002 was followed by several years of global stocks outperforming. Something similar could occur now, especially given the ongoing strength in Chinese stocks and relative “cheapness” of European stocks (based on P/E ratios). TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
TVC:DXYShort
by TradeStation
11
DAX Sights All Time High 13800Hello Fellow Traders! Indices experienced slight recovery last night with SPX (US500) up 2%, Nasdaq up 2.94%, UK100 up 1.39% and DAX 2.07% The SPX (US500) has broken pre Covid highs aided by the US tech sector, while the broader market has struggled to test related levels. The DAX has positioned itself for an advance to reclaim historical levels. Caution: This zone will act as resistance. Also, this trade is suggesting the global markets will bounce in the short term. Key Points: - Price holding above the 200 EMA - Price holding above the 50 EMA - Above all Fibonacci levels from the Covid range drop. Next resistance is the All Time High. - Covid Gap from initial drop has yet to be filled. - RSI positioned for upside Key Levels: Support – 13100, 50 EMA, 12850, 200 EMA Resistance – Caution Zone, 13450, Above Covid Gap, 13800 Entry Zone: Optimal entry provides the greatest reward to risk ratio while supporting entry is a zone for reversal signals. Optimal Entry – 13000 Supporting Entry – 13100 Candle Reversals for entry - Bullish Hammer - Bullish Engulfing - Bullish Piercing The Risk: As traders, it is your job to mitigate the risk and only trade structures that provide high probability and great reward to risk ratios. If you are not comfortable with defined exit levels, experiment with Moving Averages to help set solid exit rules to protect your capital. IF: Price breaks above 12850 level and/or violates 50 EMA – this would suggest the structure is not in our favour and would be wise to reduce exposure or close the trade until a solid signal gives us reasons to re-enter. Reward / Reward Targets: Optimal Entry 13000 – Target 1 13450 = 3x Reward to Risk Optimal Entry 13000 – Target 2 13800 = 5x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 13100 – Target 1 13450 = 1.5x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 13100 – Target 2 13800 = 2.7x Reward to Risk
XETR:DAXLong
by tradetheday
8
DOW JONES - EASY 12% SWINGHello and welcome to this swing trade idea! I hope you feel good and you are up to make some gains this week. If you ask me, I am ;-) Let´s just jump right into it: -Regular Bullish Divergence on the bigger timeframe: Usually this suggests a trend reversal (maybe we have a bottom here at 18200). -RSI: This creates in combination with the two-dot circles (25400/18200) the bullish divergence (looks good). -The arrows show us two moves, which can be described bull flags- the first one descending, the second one ascending flag, which is not a reversal, but a continuation pattern (looks good) -High Volume while selling on the way down to 18200 indicates we may have found a bottom- rising volume while carrying the bull flag and low volume on the retracements (red arrows) demonstrates low powered selling pressure (looks good) Prediction: -I think we will retrace once more (second red arrow) and retest the very last resistance at 20800, which is now a support level. -If this holds, we might see a bounce and a continuation of a third bull flag, or we might retest the 18200 support- at that point, we must wait and see if the support holds or if we see lower lows (would be bad sign) Conclusion: All in all, I am very positive up to this, though I am taking the risk of shorting to 20800. If we bounce, I will become bullish again. Note: I am bullish generally speaking, this idea is a swing trade idea for the short term. Hope this is informative to you, leave a like or a sub if you enjoyed the content, your german-quality-trader
DJ:DJI
by GER-Quality-Trades
BITCOIN APRIL UPDATEDo you like Coins? Do you like Bitcoins? Do you like Gains, maybe even sick gainz? Then I welcome you to this April update! I expect to visit 8600 area, to continue a bear motivated sideways trend, until we retest the latest low of 3600! Maybe we will bounce, go sideways and climb up again- or maybe we will bounce, restest the already weakened support of 3600 and dip lower...But important: 8600 area, the go down and see at least a 5 as the first number of the BTC price! We are discussing the current situation of Bitcoin in the perspective of the global economy, but also not missing on Technical Analysis! I hope you enjoy this one, I was thinking about getting more into major world indexes and making like all-around summary videos about the world economy and/or specific stocks and assets? What do you think, let me know in the commentary section or simply DM me, best, you german quality trader
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by GER-Quality-Trades
2
Quick Market Analysis from a non financial advisorHello hello Wonderful being!! Been some time since my last publish, and lots of actions have happened; one of which my predicaments: We have not yet seen the full impact of the Corona on the financial market. So, in this post I will try to take several steps back from the BTC window and look a little more into the whole stock market and see if there are correlations and effects into BTC and any good indications? Digital Gold argument So there is an argument out there that says BTC is digital gold and a safe haven for traders alike. Personally, I would love to believe that, but I do not see the correlation, just yet. I see it can become something like a digital gold in the future, but today it is not. BTC and possibly other crypto is used today in hedging, or would make more sense to be used in such a fashion. Hedging, in the sense that BTC and crypto has no correlations with the rest of the financial market. When hedging or protecting your portfolio against risk, you usually choose assets that are less correlated to each other. That means that if one action or element in the news or internation affects your asset A, it does not affect your asset B. You do not want your portfolio to be over exposed into certain areas. It is based on this argument above (non correlated asset) that i believe BTC will increase in value over the next few months. Because more and more traders will add BTC into their portfolio, when market is now correcting. which brings me to my next argument. Market Bubble and over valued Many financial analytics out there, including myself (self proclaimed financial analytic), believe that the market has been overpriced or over valued. The good last few years of nothing but gain gain gain and low interest rates, has made us lazy and too hopeful. Money has been streaming into companies and stocks, especially tech market, which made them over valued. Also in 2019 we experience many of the top tech companies buying their own stocks, which also impacted the price. In the beginning of 2020 (January), I saw signs of the first trend reversal and possible beginning of a correction. However, I expected the stronger correction to happen in summer time, due to the fact that central banks and other institutes would do everything they can to post pone any strong correction. However with the Corona Virus and its effect on factories and stock market, it is working as a possible catalyst to my initial theory. Where do we go from here? Well, with these two arguments in mind, I believe two scenarios that are most likely: 1. We will fall about 10-20% more in BTC before finding stronger support line. From here we will see positive incline of price. 2. We have already hit support line and our climb will start slowly but surely. What are my own strategy in this I sold all my funds and stocks in late 2019, waiting for a buy in opportunity in both stock and crypto. The buy in opportunity in stocks I believe will come either in this month in March or in April, if not then probably not until early 2021. Reason for that late buy in is that, if the central banks and other institutes start their serious counter actions for this correction. It will have a strong effect and will last for some time, but not very long though. If they wait with their counter actions, then we will see stronger corrections than we have today and that is my buy in opportunity. My crypto strategy however is slightly different, since its not that correlated to the rest (it is affected but not strongly). I am tempted to already now rebalance my portfolio in the crypto fund I am managing, and be more heavy into BTC and Ethereum, and another. Also, looking into buy in for the same crypto in my private wallet as well. Wish you all a happy hunting for your fortune and glory, but remember to be safe! PS Dont forget to look at your charts on daily and weekly to see long term trends, and remember also that trend reversal always starts from within; which means short term like the hourly or 4 hourly :)
by egilagre