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BITCOIN APRIL UPDATEDo you like Coins? Do you like Bitcoins? Do you like Gains, maybe even sick gainz? Then I welcome you to this April update! I expect to visit 8600 area, to continue a bear motivated sideways trend, until we retest the latest low of 3600! Maybe we will bounce, go sideways and climb up again- or maybe we will bounce, restest the already weakened support of 3600 and dip lower...But important: 8600 area, the go down and see at least a 5 as the first number of the BTC price! We are discussing the current situation of Bitcoin in the perspective of the global economy, but also not missing on Technical Analysis! I hope you enjoy this one, I was thinking about getting more into major world indexes and making like all-around summary videos about the world economy and/or specific stocks and assets? What do you think, let me know in the commentary section or simply DM me, best, you german quality trader
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by GER-Quality-Trades
2
Quick Market Analysis from a non financial advisorHello hello Wonderful being!! Been some time since my last publish, and lots of actions have happened; one of which my predicaments: We have not yet seen the full impact of the Corona on the financial market. So, in this post I will try to take several steps back from the BTC window and look a little more into the whole stock market and see if there are correlations and effects into BTC and any good indications? Digital Gold argument So there is an argument out there that says BTC is digital gold and a safe haven for traders alike. Personally, I would love to believe that, but I do not see the correlation, just yet. I see it can become something like a digital gold in the future, but today it is not. BTC and possibly other crypto is used today in hedging, or would make more sense to be used in such a fashion. Hedging, in the sense that BTC and crypto has no correlations with the rest of the financial market. When hedging or protecting your portfolio against risk, you usually choose assets that are less correlated to each other. That means that if one action or element in the news or internation affects your asset A, it does not affect your asset B. You do not want your portfolio to be over exposed into certain areas. It is based on this argument above (non correlated asset) that i believe BTC will increase in value over the next few months. Because more and more traders will add BTC into their portfolio, when market is now correcting. which brings me to my next argument. Market Bubble and over valued Many financial analytics out there, including myself (self proclaimed financial analytic), believe that the market has been overpriced or over valued. The good last few years of nothing but gain gain gain and low interest rates, has made us lazy and too hopeful. Money has been streaming into companies and stocks, especially tech market, which made them over valued. Also in 2019 we experience many of the top tech companies buying their own stocks, which also impacted the price. In the beginning of 2020 (January), I saw signs of the first trend reversal and possible beginning of a correction. However, I expected the stronger correction to happen in summer time, due to the fact that central banks and other institutes would do everything they can to post pone any strong correction. However with the Corona Virus and its effect on factories and stock market, it is working as a possible catalyst to my initial theory. Where do we go from here? Well, with these two arguments in mind, I believe two scenarios that are most likely: 1. We will fall about 10-20% more in BTC before finding stronger support line. From here we will see positive incline of price. 2. We have already hit support line and our climb will start slowly but surely. What are my own strategy in this I sold all my funds and stocks in late 2019, waiting for a buy in opportunity in both stock and crypto. The buy in opportunity in stocks I believe will come either in this month in March or in April, if not then probably not until early 2021. Reason for that late buy in is that, if the central banks and other institutes start their serious counter actions for this correction. It will have a strong effect and will last for some time, but not very long though. If they wait with their counter actions, then we will see stronger corrections than we have today and that is my buy in opportunity. My crypto strategy however is slightly different, since its not that correlated to the rest (it is affected but not strongly). I am tempted to already now rebalance my portfolio in the crypto fund I am managing, and be more heavy into BTC and Ethereum, and another. Also, looking into buy in for the same crypto in my private wallet as well. Wish you all a happy hunting for your fortune and glory, but remember to be safe! PS Dont forget to look at your charts on daily and weekly to see long term trends, and remember also that trend reversal always starts from within; which means short term like the hourly or 4 hourly :)
by egilagre
Jan 13th through the 30th could be VERY DANGEROUSPay attention. Multiple Fibonacci price amplitude arcs are setting up for what could be a massive downside price correction. This could be as big as 15 to 25% or more. We'll have to see how this sets up - but I believe a large price rotation is setting up and I believe it could be tied to a fresh round of defaults across the globe related to early 2020 debt expectations. Make sure you seatbelts are fastened and your tray is folded up and put away. I believe we are about to hit some serious turbulence in the markets.
FX:SPX500Short
by BradMatheny
6
Recent US Stock Market Rally Is Not Fundamental BasedThe recent stock market really is purely speculative in nature - like a massive short squeeze. The true valuation of this move is far weaker than the Sept 2018 peak. This type of rally is very similar to the DOT COM rally peak where enthusiasm drove investors to pour good money into the markets thinking "it would never end". Pay attention to how Gold, Silver, Oil and other commodities react over the next few weeks and months. My expectation is that this peak will end very violently within the next 30 to 60 days. The global central banks have already started QE processes attempting to BAIL OUT certain institutional and global players. Watch for the underlying signs that the foundation is crumbling at this point - the signs are there if you look for them.
NYSE:OOIShort
by BradMatheny
Could it happen THAT QUICK?What do you think? For any of you that follow my research, you'll understand that this chart (including the projected down arrow) would indicate a complete collapse of the Global captital markets and present a "washout" of valuations across the world. Could it happen - you bet. Will it happen - unknown at this time. My research suggests a down trend will happen in the US and global markets before the end of 2019 (as my super cycle research has predicted). My research also suggests the US stock market will be one of the safest places on the planet to invest going forward. Therefore, are you ready for a wild ride? One that may never happen again for another 75+ years? If you want to know what my thoughts are about this, then follow my research more closely and stay away from Cryptos. Put your money into Metals instead.
AMEX:VTIShort
by BradMatheny
4
Market fears September TariffNext week both the US and China will impose tariff and physiological impacts alone is keeping market grounded. The US high end consumers already tightened their spending and the impact of high end consumer spending will show in the September data exasperated by impact of tariff on middle class consumer spending. Starting September 1, U.S. tariffs on about half of $300 billion in Chinese imports will be taxed at 15%, with additional levies set to kick in on the other half on Dec. 15. Tariffs will also be raised on October 1 to 30%, from 25%, on an existing round of tariffs already in effect on $250 billion in Chinese goods.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by stockmarketupdate
BITCOIN TO 30KTechnical analysis: a symmetric triangle going to break to 20k then 13k again and then 30k . if you ask when this is gonna happend i"d tell that i dont know when exactly but its gonna happend in the next years maybe. Fundamental analysis : trade war is getting too strong as china sells the u.s bonds and also the devaluation of the yuan. china, russia, U.E is buying gold as a currency for reserve while the fed is cutting the interest rates for the first time in 11 years . Germany had slow his economic growth and is entering on a "technical recession" . China had his lowest economic growth in the last 30 years . Italia is on a recession, argentina had his worst day on history last monday 12/8 . The FMI redefine the world economic growth with a cut to 3.5% , the same level as 2009. Its your decition to be in the side of the looser or in the side of winners...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by tomiwolf
1
Global Market in Big Danger! Unemployment at all-time low!As you can see low-unemployment is early signal markets start to reverse, especially if there are divergences present between unemployment and it's RSI value. When low unemployment starts to break up this means that the market is saturated with jobs and many flourishing businesses, there has been a phase of economic euphoria and the climate becomes highly competitive as many loans/money are/is invested. I do reckon we see the dow return to the yellow dashed line as this is a long-term carrying trend.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheTrex
5
US Equities Go Ballistic As Foreign Markets Collapse?Pay attention to the bigger picture, folks. The past suggests the future. Post 1973, the gold standard ended and a boost in equity valuations followed. After 1985, a similar boost setup after Reagan initiated a technology boom. The contractions in the market in 2000 and 2009 were related to growth constraints and excesses related to out of control lending/credit. The $25+ Trillion that was injected into the global markets after 2010 is just now starting to actually take root. Notice how price has continued to hyper inflate through each of these economic modes. post 1973 - we see an increase in the slope of the general markets. post 1985 - we see a further increase in this slope. post 2010 - we see a breakout increase in the slope that has just begun. Don't let the "doom-sayers" confuse you. The US Dollar may become the central global currency if foreign markets/currencies continue to devalue. Capital will shift away from failing markets and towards more mature markets. After the Jan 1 new year, capital is seeking investment into economies that will provide a safe and equitable return. My opinion is we have just experienced a "revaluation" of the US markets that aligns with my Fibonacci Arcs. I believe we are about to enter a phase where global markets begin a collapse phase (Asia, China, Europe, Russia) while the US, Canada and UK enter a renewed upside momentum move. Pay attention to the fringe economies that are starting to implode. Venezuela, Italy, Spain, Australia, areas of Asia and much of South America/Africa are dealing with economic and political turmoil as a result of "perceptions of inequality/lack of opportunity". This battle to attempt to restore order will create a destructive event cycle for these economies. For example, as the battle for leadership in Venezuela continues, debts payments will likely fail. This will create human and capital crisis events that will ripple across the region and cause other issues in other nations. One of these events is not too difficult to address/handle. Multiple isolated events like this can become much more difficult to handle. Should Asia/China continue to contract, resulting in slower regional GDP growth and increased debt obligations, while the EU is dealing with Brexit and other localized issues, think of how this will play out over the next 7 to 10 years for more stable/mature economies. Will the US dollar become the single greatest global currency? Will the mature economies of the world (US, Canada, UK, Japan) again regain their strengths as the global leaders they really are. Chasing these emerging markets in the hopes that these nations will generate some return may be a very risky plan for those without experience. And what about Gold and Silver? Are you aware that you have less than 90 days to plan for and prepare for a massive move in the precious metals? Oh, you asked about Bitcoin?? Yeah, wait for the bottom. Until these global market issues play out, Cryptos are speculative plays - nothing else. Pay attention to my work and my research. Visit www.ment.com or www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about what I do and how I can help you.
DJ:DJILong
by BradMatheny
7
Is the S&P500 at the end of a 100+ year CYCLE?The S&P500 market has started the end of a 100+ year 5 wave cycle, if this is correct we are now at almost the top of a 5 wave cycle which can end in the very near future. If this is true we are at the start of one of the biggest, if not the biggest market crash in the history of the S&P500. A correction of 5 wave cycle is usually 61.8% of the entire 5 waves, if this is correct we could see S&P500 prices of $1,100 levels. We are talking about $20 trillion wiped out. We could be going into a DEPRESSION!!!!
SP:SPXEducation
by TheKingOfAces
4
Custom Market Cap Index shows the US stocks will trend higherThis custom Market Cap Index is something I used to gauge market conditions and capability with regards to trends, peaks, bottoms and more. You can see that is ranges price volatility quite well and allows me to see what the market is capable of doing over the next few weeks and months. Right now, the US stock markets have quite a bit of upside price range to go. Don't be surprised if the US stock markets continue to rally over the next 3+ weeks and then stall out for the remainder of the fall season. Increased volatility may come in early November or December as my cycle indicators show volatility should increase near this time. Pay attention to my posts. You may find my work is far deeper and more advanced than simple trading triggers. I've just predicted what will happen over the next 4~5 months with a relative degree of certainty. Follow me to learn more and I'll share even more resources with you.
AMEX:VTILong
by BradMatheny
1
US Markets Find Support With Q2 EarningsUS Equities markets are finding support with relatively strong Q2 earnings. This SPY chart shows what I believe is the critical support zone. Watch for capital to migrate away from certain growth sectors and into more value/dividend sectors as capital is searching for a safe location to avoid contagion issues arising from global debt/credit concerns. Expect the US markets to stall, briefly, through August and early Sept, then begin to rocket higher into the end of 2018. Don't miss these moves. Follow me if you like my analysis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
US Custom Index shows FB & TWTR do not generate massive concernsDon't expect the US markets to react too harshly to FB and TWTR news this week. This custom US Index is showing overall trend strength and support as prices continue to accelerate upward. The earnings concerns of a few stocks may not have much of a downward effect on the markets throughout the next few weeks. These are just isolated events. As my friend used to say "it is a market of stocks, not a stock market". In other words, one or two issues may not drive prices much lower. Pay attention to the long term. The NQ will likely hover near 7400 for a while as the S&P and DOW push higher on earnings news. Foreign capital will still rush into the US after a solid 4.1% GDP number. Metals will likely base over the next few weeks. BRICs and Foreign markets are being left in the dust as the US market is on FIRE. Follow me if you like my analysis and want to stay aware of my thoughts.
DLong
by BradMatheny