Short book: GM broke below earnings support, to follow F soonToday we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode').
We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies.
See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GM
$GM Awaiting New Highs?? Here's a classic breakout situation. We have price channeling for the past few years. However we do have a highly anticipated earnings report coming out soon. Mayne this earning report can take this stock To new highs?
Why I am Long on GM:
- New Cruz Hatchback just came out which will take car/ hatch marketshare.
- Corvettes numbers are solid.
- Camaro new update and high end model will be a huge seller.
XPDUSD: Palladium, long dips with stops under 691.16Palladium is offering great potential here, with odds of getting you into a long term uptrend if you go long next weeek.
Risk is a drop under 616.16, so buy dips and add on a breakout of last week's high with the same stop loss.
The long term chart shows potential for a quarterly/6-month timeframe uptrend signal, so this makes Palladium particularly interesting.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Buy Stocks on the Rumor, Sell on the NewsFiat Chrysler to invest $1.5B at Sterling Heights plant
www.detroitnews.com
Buy Stocks on the Rumor, Sell on the News
So looks like channel trading. Lean towards short side more but good options strategy would be great for this type of trade if you know how to trade in this channel choppy side movement trade.
GM: Longer term setupWe have an interesting opportunity in GM. This is a more aggressive entry, but we'll protect the position by writing covered calls against the long trade. We shared this setup in the KHL chatroom today.
Good luck!
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
Key Hidden Levels: A few trades we sharedThese are a few trades we shared at the KHL chatroom, I have shared the link in my previous posts.
If you're interested in learning more about the methods used by Tim West, which I learned and apply in my own trading, contact me privately. I also offer a signals service, with more setups, for FX, equities, metals and oil for the most part.
It's clear the market is in an uptrend for now. There is an uptrend signal in SPY, which indicates we might see a reaction by the 14-15th, which happens to match the FOMC meeting date. I reccomend monitoring equity longs closely by then. I'm in these and a few other trades, and I'll be looking to book profits safely. I'll update this publication if needed.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
GM backslides to target levelGM shares stopped falling in mid-October, bouncing off USD 30.50, a strong historical level. Attempts to break out of the falling band YTD were blocked at the USD 33.80 local resistance level. At this point, the band, within which GM tried to trade up, was breached to the downside. The stock has already retraced to the breakout boundary. Investors can short the stock at prices close to the current levels with the target noted above. The stock is very likely to retrace to USD 30.50 and try to break through this level.
My forecast participates in the Market Forecaster contest. Follow the link s30548462907.whotrades.com
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Trouble ahead for GM10-1-14: With any broad market weakness, or perhaps just the lack of market strength, GM appears to likely break a trend line that has been important since Jul-2011. With the current wedge being formed the final price objective would be 21-22 range.
The first initial drop may take GM to the 27-28 range where there has been support/resistance found in the past. This 1st move could happen quickly if the trend breaks. Final target would be around the 22-22 range. No positions yet on GM but something worth watching. If weakness from yesterday continues with a further drop below the trend then a re-test and subsequent failure to recapture the trend may be the cue to position for the downside.
Is #TLSA Driving Impaired Under Fed-Laced Drugs? | #NASDAQFriends,
I ventured to read outside of my cozy Forex interest, and peeked into the US car industry and market. I was quite taken by the divergence between stock valuation and a growing sentiment of impeding collapse.
Here is one interesting company that clearly blazes its own trail for the future of the car company. Question is: Can it do this without a sufficient structural base of consumers? Would selling 27,000 cars over 4 years (that is, since its 2010 IPO public inception) while generating $1 billion in cumulative losses over the last six years inspire you to own this audacious company? Well, to frame it other terms: General Motors, a comparatively far less valued company to Tesla Motors manages to sell about 27,000 cars every day counting weekends.
It seems to me that the structural changes that are about to affect large luxurious ticket items are resting on a precarious base of consumers under aging demographic and widespread deflationary threats, where the former will redirect consumer needs and the latter will hinder consumer demand - Like the song says, you can't always get what you want, but you might get what you need.
- Is Tesla responding to that need?
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
On a pure predictive/forecasting model basis, the short and mid-term data has confirmed a bearish market reversal signal, whereas the long-term remains bullish.
The following are the two most immediate bearish targets generated by the model:
1 - TG-1 = 162.55 - 16 MAY 2014
and
2 - TG-2 = 126.37 - 16 MAY 2014.
STRUCTURAL DATA:
A structural analysis brings up two supportive values, defining a probable range in which price action would find greatest resistance to move forward, namely the 133.07/147.96 range defined in the chart.
OVERALL:
Based on the predictive/forecasting model and structural data, the directional outlook is bearish for this car manufacturer. Taking into account a domestic and worldwide economies burdened by expected social and behavioral shifts, this trader's can't help wonder whether this stock is driving impaired by some Fed-laced inhalant, or whether it sees its own light at the end of one visionary tunnel.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView Moderator
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PS: I have attached market indices pointing to significant highs or reversal levels, which point to a significant resistance against the current bullish status quo.
- David Alcindor