$GME - August dump then runLooks like August might be a repeat of March 23 ish but possibly with a lot more upside even at these prices.. Not sharing too much details on this and why. Up to you if you're goiing to follow it. This is not financial advice. Also i can be wrong, but i don't think i am in this case.
Warning: Read the text below very carefully. Do not skim it. It contains several very important warnings about this run up or down.
What i estimate to be the August Opex into SLD settlement week: Aug 9-19 GME retraces down to $36, the whole market dumps, Vix pumps a little bit and MSM scares everyone with war and inflation and the next big crash etc, then suddenly around the 24'th of August everything goes green and suddenly war and inflation are over and markets pump. That's it in a nutshell.
Now that i'm done dunking on hedge stock, back to the play.
-Aug 9 to 19 the entire market dumps including GME and BBBY and the rest as it always does.
-Things start to go a bit bullish at around the 19'th give or take a few days. The timing here is up to you.
-The main run is expected to be at around the 24'th give or take a day or two.
-The direction is unknown. I only know there is a big price event on this day. It may be big downs or big ups.
-I would personally get pretty OTM options here at +25% spot price or more as this run looks like it might be the biggest one yet.
(Remember, nothing is guaranteed in life, none of this may happen, maybe get some near the money calls instead and be safe before you lose money and start swearing???)
If you're a degenerate, you basically know the drill. If you're new to all this, best close this page now and consider investing in an index or ETF as this is an extremely risky play as you're likely to lose money here. I'm serious.
Reminder:
-The market is likely to be down starting on the 9'th of August till around the 19'th of August give or take a day or two at most.
-GME, BBBY and most other meme stocks like EXPR and all the 2021 runners like VUZI and FCEL and all those weird tickers that went nuts are likely to pump a bit, some will pump more some will pump extremely little. The ones that are expected to move the most are GME/BBBY and unfortunately AMC but for different reasons.
-The actual price target is unknown and the numbers on the chart are a vague estimate based on swaps and resistances.
Info:
-All i can say is that if March was a x1, then August is a x27. The notional amounts traded in swaps is absolutely bonkers and indicates that this is either another March run or a January 28 run.
-There's also the chance that everything has been derisked on the 8'th of August and there may be no run after Opex in August. This is extremely important. We may see action similar to November 23 where everything crashed as there are similarities with August and November. Be EXTREMELY careful. The data on this is still being reviewed, but preliminarily it looks very good. This may change without notice upon discovering something new.
About the whole meme stock thing:
Basically any meme stock you buy you're gonna be fine. GME, BBBY, AMC etc. I don't like AMC and i wouldn't suggest touching it as it's used as a hedge against the entire meme basket. Pumping it helps end the GME/BBBY and general meme pump quicker. AMC pumps because it's being bought to be posted as collateral to the OCC's stock loan hedging program where you can post another security part of a short pair like GME/AMC to hedge against the other part of the short pair. In this case, AMC is being bought whenever GME/BBBY go up and is delivered to the OCC's loan hedging program. This is why AMC pumps for no reason on other stock's dividends or splits or whatever, it's hedging, just not the kind anyone expected.
Updates to this play:
-I typically post updates to my trade and regarding the play itself almost live due to how important it is to keep everyone updated for this kind of trade. I will be posting comments and updates to this post when the play is live and in progress. You need to be dilligent in reading those notes and updates in time and acting accordingly and correctly reacting to them otherwise you may exit or enter a position late and lose or even make more money than expected.
-I sometimes exit positions early. I've lost plenty of extra gains due to this. Others have ignored my advice are have for the most part made a lot more money than i have. Keep this in mind.
A random post of mine on Reddit about this, old and not updated. It's a DD about this cycle. I've been following the GME/Meme cycles for over a year and a half now and have been reading regulations, market mechanics, gathering data from FOIAs or other sources like equity swaps, options, etc and this is the culmination of my research e.g the ability to predict certain dates where there will be movement up or down on meme stocks and generally the market as a whole. I cannot predict precise price targets nor price direction. I can predict dates on which events will happen that cause either upwards price movement or downwards price movement. I do not know which of the two it will be.
www.reddit.com
None of this is financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. This play is extremely risky.
